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Globalization slides pdf.pdf
- 1. Globalization Current Affairs withUsman PAS 0323-3397402
- 2. What is Globalization? Globalizationis the word used to describe the growing interdependence of the world’s economies, cultures, and populations, brought about by cross-border trade in goods and services, technology, and flows of investment, people, and information. Countries have built economic partnerships to facilitate these movements over many centuries. But the term gained popularity after the Cold War in the early 1990s, as these cooperative arrangements shaped modern everyday life. (Peterson institute for international economics, PIIE).
- 3. According to WHO •‘‘the increased interconnectedness and interdependence of peoples and countries. • It is generally understood to include two inter-related elements: • the opening of international borders to increasingly fast flows of goods, services, finance, people and ideas; • and the changes in institutions and policies at national and international levels that facilitate or promote such flows.”
- 5. Globalization Quotes byWorld Influencers: • No generation has had the opportunity, as we now have, to build a global economy that leaves no-one behind. It is a wonderful opportunity, but also a profound responsibility. U.S President Bill Clinton • Globalization is a fact, because of technology, because of an integrated global supply chain, because of changes in transportation. And we’re not going to be able to build a wall around that Barack Obama, former U.S. president • “My guiding principle is that prosperity can be shared. We can create wealth together. The global economy is not a zero-sum game.” Julia Gillard, Prime Minister of Australia
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- 7. Globalization 1.0 • 1=The age of exploration( colonial expansion e.g discovery of America etc) • 2= End of age of empires • 3= Container shipping growth • 4= First industrial revolution • By the end of the 18th century, Great Britain had started to dominate the world both geographically, through the establishment of the British Empire, and technologically, with innovations like the steam engine, the industrial weaving machine and more. It was the era of the First Industrial Revolution.
- 8. Globalization 2.0 and3.0 • 1= The age of imperialism • 2= second industrial revolution • The end of the World War II marked a new beginning for the global economy. Under the leadership of a new hegemon, the United States of America, and aided by the technologies of the Second Industrial Revolution, like the car and the plane, global trade started to rise once again • 3= Rise of Asian tigers and de-industrialization of parts of core • 4= Post WW1 and WW2 settlement IMF, World Bank, roots of WTO • 5= Third industrial revolution
- 9. Cont… • At thesame time, a new technology from the Third Industrial Revolution, the internet, connected people all over the world in an even more direct way. • The result has been a globalization on steroids. In the 2000s, global exports reached a milestone, as they rose to about a quarter of global GDP. Trade, the sum of imports and exports, consequentially grew to about half of world GDP. In some countries, like Singapore, Belgium, or others, trade is worth much more than 100% of GDP. • 6= Era of de-colonization • 7= Fall and disintegration of Soviet Union ,growth of BRICS Economies • 8= Trade bloc growth (NAFTA+EU)
- 10. Globalization 4.0 • 1=Development of Infrastructural corridors ( CPEC, BRI,B3W etc) . In a world increasingly dominated by two global powers, the US and China, the new frontier of globalization is the cyber world. “Some blame economic globalization for the chaos in the world,” he said. “It has now become the Pandora’s box in the eyes of many.” But, he continued, “we came to the conclusion that integration into the global economy is a historical trend. It is the big ocean that you cannot escape from.” He went on the propose a more inclusive globalization, and to rally nations to join in China’s new project for international trade, “Belt and Road”. 2= Digital globalization (robotics, artificial intelligence)
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- 12. Economic globalization: • Economicglobalization refers to the interconnectedness of economies through trade and the exchange of resources. Pros of economic globalization • Employees in developing countries have more opportunities, taken out huge amount of people out of poverty. • The share of the world's population in extreme poverty has fallen from 42 percent in 1981 to just 8.6 percent in 2018. (WHO) • Living standards certainly went up. The number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen by 60% since 1990 due to globalization. (THE ECONOMIST)
- 13. • Increased percapita. With higher investments in developing countries, it leads to infrastructural growth, better products and services that initiate economic growth and greater per capita income Cheaper goods like t-shirts, televisions etc. for the entire world. • Increased income. Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since 1980’s. By 2019, the effects of globalization had been realized; middle-income countries unlocked higher growth rates, and lower-income economies, including China, India, and others in Africa and Asia, had made significant strides in raising their incomes and reducing poverty. (PIIE)
- 14. • More optionsfor unskilled workers. • McDonald's had 39,198 fast-food restaurants in 119 countries and territories, at the end of 2020 It employed more than 2.2 million people at that time.
- 15. Cons of economicglobalization • Job losses in developed markets: • Economic globalization has led to the development of manufacturing hubs worldwide. This has shifted manufacturing jobs from the first world to developing nations. Thus several countries face a glaring employment gap for their unskilled workers. • Increases exploitation of workers: • Many sweatshops and mines employ workers for highly disrespectful wages. Countries in Africa are victims of economic globalization. (PIIE) • More power to businesses to influence governments: • Globalization has made companies more powerful. Their increased capital can affect people, thus swaying public opinions.
- 16. • Unequal distributionof wealth: • Some actors (countries, companies, individuals) benefit more from the phenomena of globalization, while others are sometimes perceived as the “losers” of globalization. According to OXFAM international report, 82% of all wealth created in the 2017 went to the top 1%, and nothing went to the bottom 50%. Women are in the worst work, and almost all the super-rich are men.
- 17. Financial globalization • Financialglobalization can be seen through interaction of the world’s financial system, e.g., stock markets. What happens in Asian markets affects the North American markets. • It’s more of a connection among large cities than of a nation.
- 18. Social globalization: Pros ofSocial globalization: • Increased exposure to more cultures and lifestyles • Starts a dialogue for various international problems e.g, capital punishment is immoral and that women should have all the same rights as men.
- 19. Social globalization: Cons ofSocial globalization: • Lack of localization: As societies and cultures merge, the distinction between cultures becomes blurred • More prone to contagious diseases: Bitter experiences of the pandemic shall leave a lasting impression on the generation. However, it will hurt us badly if we throw caution to the wind for future pandemics. Social globalization has already paved railroads for pandemics to proliferate incredibly.
- 20. Cultural globalization • Inany country or region, culture is a representative of not only its region and language but also the mindset and mentality of its inhabitants. • Culture has increasingly become a commodity. Popular books and films have international markets. English movies are seen almost in all countries. Harry Potter has readers almost all over the world. Western pop music has become popular in developing countries. • The reverse flow of culture is insignificant. The flow of culture is mainly from North to South. • In the last few years the media owners of the West have shown interest in entering developing markets. • Cultural globalization has been facilitated by the information revolution, the speed of a satellite communication, telecommunication networks, information technology and the internet etc.
- 21. Pros of culturalglobalization • 1= Fusion of different cultures. • One can find like-minded people through internet even from oceans away. • 2= Friendly approach and socializing features in youth are well appreciated.
- 22. Cons of culturalglobalization • 1= Asian culture is fading away in the colors of westernization. • 2= Broken family structure and increased divorces are in trend. Now marriage is just a professional bond or a so-called commitment not a soul bonding. • 3=Incidents of rape, adultery and sexual abuses are increasing due to perverted minds. • 4=Health disorders are increasing due to having junk foods. Immodest clothing trend is uprising.
- 23. Political globalization • 1=Political globalization refers to the ripple effects and continuity of political relationships between countries. • 2= Setting up international organizations such as the UN, NATO, WTO, which debates and regulates international politics and trade, is also an example of this type of globalization. • 3= Globalization also paved the way for international laws and clauses that secure the rights and interests of smaller nations. • 4= Modern globalization is primarily driven by business. Thus, less powerful countries with rich natural resources often run into devious companies with vested interests. Therefore, international organizations protect these countries
- 24. Pros of politicalglobalization • Formation of international organizations • Healthy competition between nations for socio-economic growth • Decentralization of the nation-state • A collective effort towards common problems
- 25. Cons of politicalglobalization • Politics and business are getting intertwined: Most companies try to influence the political parties in the country. These countries need not necessarily be home-grown businesses. This allows foreign interests to sway the political wind according to their desire. • Softening of national boundaries: Political globalization has made mobility easier.
- 26. Technological globalization • Technologyinfluenced business, marketing, talent acquisition, supply chain, data management. Technologies such as the internet, cloud computing, high-speed mobility have accelerated globalization.
- 27. Pros of technologicalglobalization • Growth of tech-based startups and small business, Increased income • International and local mobile banking • More opportunities for unskilled workers
- 28. Cons of technologicalglobalization • Increased consumer spending on impulsive purchases: E-wallets and faster shipping prompt people to make impulsive purchases. • Increase in fake news: Social media has led to rampant propaganda and fake news. Thai phenomenon affects not only local audiences but also global audiences • Increased inequality and digital divide: Although globalization has put a communication device in many people's hands, technological disparities and the digital divide are still rampant. This has led to unequal access to opportunities
- 29. • Job lossfor unskilled workers: Skilled workers and white-collar jobs are mostly safe from globalization. However, manual labor often faces the threat of globalization.
- 30. Environmental globalization • 1=Environmental globalization is simply the consequence of all the after- effects of other types of globalization. Undoubtedly, the tide of development emanates from globalization pollutes the environment. Globalization increases our per capita consumption. This puts a lot of pressure on natural resources, which badly affects the ecological cycle. • 2= Although industrialization is part of globalization, harmful chemicals have been thrown into the environment, affecting the climate dangerously. • 3= Countries worldwide have come to sign climate accords like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Climate Agreement to invest in lowering its carbon emissions.
- 31. Others… • Criminal globalization •Intercontinental spread of global crime and its impact on governments and individuals, e.g., terrorist attack 9/11. • Military globalization • US, NATO and UN peacekeeping forces playing role global police or mediating local conflicts
- 32. Overall pros andcons of Globalization
- 33. The advantages ofglobalization • 1= Increased free trade between nations, globalization gives you a large market .you can sell more goods and make more • 2= Global mass media ties the world together • 3= Increased flow of communications allows vital information to be shared between individuals and corporations around the world • 4= Greater ease and speed of transportation for goods and people • 5= Reduction of likelihood of war between developed nations • 6= Increases concerns of environmental protection in developed nations
- 34. • 7= Resourcesof different countries are used for producing goods and services • 8= The flexibility of corporations to operate across borders increases as the liquidity of capital increases, developed countries can invest in developing ones • 9= Access to larger markets means that firms may experience higher demand for their products ,as well as benefit from economies of scale ,which leads to a reduction in average production costs • 10= Globalization enables worldwide access to sources of cheap raw materials, and this enables firms to be cost competitive in their own markets and in overseas markets.
- 35. • 11= Seekingout the cheapest materials from around the world is called global sourcing. Because of cost reductions and increased revenue ,globalization can generate increased profits for shareholders. • 12= In the long-term ,increased trade is likely to lead to the creation of more employment in all countries that are involved.
- 36. Disadvantages • 1= Exploitationof underdeveloped countries • Multinational Corporations (MNCs) based in developed countries, purchase at lower rates the raw materials from backward countries • 2= Increase in Unemployment • MNCs employ machines to reduce the number of employees. the increased power and influence of multinationals is also seen by many as a considerable disadvantage of globalization. • For example: large multinational companies can switch their investments between terrotories in search of the most favourable regulatory regimes. MNCs can operate as local monopolies of labour, and push wages lower than the free market equilibrium
- 37. • 3= Wideningof the rich-poor gap • Globalization brings benefits to the rich who are small in number and keeps the vast majority of people in poverty and misery. • 4= Harmful effects of Consumerism • Globalization produces consumerism. People being attracted by attractive goods and advertisements, want to buy these goods. They would not hesitate to earn money by unfair means • The culture of consumerism has overtaken all aspects of human life; it has even entered into the ethical and spiritual plane of human being’s existence.
- 38. • 5 =Adverse effects on social security and social welfare • Because of privatization, governments in many developing countries are withdrawing from the sector of social welfare and private companies have entered educations, health and other such fields related to development. As a result of this, poor people are facing a lot of difficulties • 6= Erosion of democracy • Globalization has lead to the weakening , erosion and even destruction of democracy . Globalization has considerably increased the wealth and power of multinational corporations and they have tended to interfere with and control the economic policy and politics of developing countries.
- 39. • 7= Gender-insensitivity •the interests and concerns of women , particularly of poor women, have been seriously ignored. • 8= Destruction of environment • Globalization would destroy environment. In the name of economic development ,environment is blindly destroyed. • 9= cultural homogenization • Globalization will lead to cultural homogenization, • 10= dehumanization of person • One of the main disadvantages is the dehumanization of the person. Although a person is a worker by vocation, his/her work has been alienated from him/her and turned into a commodity. One is purely a producer and is paid for one’s task, and then the relationship is lost
- 40. • 11= Objectivityand truthfulness are of no concern, provided the powerful nations achieve their objective by hook or crook. • 12= Ideology plays a big role in the grouping of nations, and nations with similar ideologies are willing to join to oppress the less privileged and seemingly opposed nations (e.g., U.S. and Israel). Blind support is offered to nations even despite their misdeeds, because they are basically part of one’s group. • 13= Spread of nuclear knowhow and empowerment with nuclear weapons go on un abated, thus spreading a culture of hatred and oppression. Wars go on unhindered because of false pride of nations, and nations join hands in this, even though they know it is basically evil (e.g., Bush’s war on Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.)
- 41. • 14= Globalizationis a form of colonization, and can spread a monoculture and fundamentalism. • There is a colonization thriving at the center of the market economy, and only powerful nations can survive. • 15= the over standardization of products through global branding is a common criticism of globalization • For example: the majority of the world’s computers use Microsoft’s windows operating system .clearly ,standardizing of computer operating systems and platforms creates considerable benefits, but critics argue that this leads to a lack of product diversity, as well as presenting barriers to entry to small, local producers.
- 42. • 16= lossof languages • acceleration in language death has been attributed to globalization and is predicted to continue. • 17= The global economic crisis, the worst financial crisis since the great depression ,can be accredited partial to neoliberal globalization. Globalization limits development and civilization to a path that only leads to a western and capitalistic system
- 43. Why there isa waning appetite for globalization?
- 44. Perspective from westernsides: • Greater consumer awareness in the West about human-rights abuses in places such as China and Vietnam. • Western companies are being pressed to source goods elsewhere. • Concerns over the national-security implications of trade and investment.
- 45. On autocratic sides: •Western culture to seep across borders, weakening autocratic rule. • Being part of global supply chains means being vulnerable to sanctions. In 1989 China faced sanctions after the crackdown in Tiananmen Square. The next year America placed Cuba, El Salvador, Jordan, Kenya, Romania and Yemen under sanctions for various infractions. Several rounds of Western sanctions on Russia, first in 2014 and then again today. • In 2014 America banned Huawei, a Chinese tech firm, from bidding on American government contracts. In 2018 Mr Trump started a trade war with China
- 46. ‘As a resultnow, Countries are signing smaller, regional trade deals instead; democracies are banding together, as are autocracies; and many countries are also seeking greater self-reliance.’
- 47. • In 2020China signed an agreement with 14 other Asian countries, mostly non-democracies. • Africa, meanwhile, most countries have ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area. • Countries with shared political systems are also coming closer. The CORE Partnership, an agreement between America and Japan, launched in 2021 and is designed to promote co-operation in new technologies from mobile networks to biotech.
- 48. • The US-EUTrade and Technology Council, is working on climate change and strengthening supply chains. • Autocracies are also forming their own blocs. The stock of long-term investment from the autocratic world into China rose by over a fifth in 2020, • China’s turn in 2020 towards a “dual circulation” strategy includes an attempt to rely less on global suppliers. It wants to release its rivals’ grip on “chokehold” industries, such as chipmaking equipment. • A big focus of President Joe Biden’s administration, for instance, is “supply-chain resilience”, which in part involves efforts to encourage domestic production.
- 49. How to avoida fatal backlash against globalization? • Liberalised trade rules helped in nineteenth-century; Britain repealed its Corn Laws—tariffs on imported grain—in 1846. • Integration of markets was supercharged by improvements in communication and transport technologies which allowed for faster, cheaper and more reliable movement of people, goods and information. • The telegraph, steamships and railways brought the economies of Europe and the Americas into close contact, with profound consequences.
- 50. • In 1870British wheat prices were 60% above those in America; by 1890 the gap had mostly closed. When telegraph cables connected distant financial markets, differences in the pricing of various securities vanished almost immediately. • In the new world, land was abundant and cheap, and wages were high. The reverse was true in Europe, where workers were plentiful and landowners collected fat rents. As these markets integrated, prices converged.
- 51. THE GROWING RIVALRYBETWEEN US AND CHINA AND THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION
- 52. INTRODUCTION: • Since theend of cold war political leaders in the advanced industrial democracies have tended to accept as an article of faith that expanding cross-border flows of goods, capital, information, ideas, and people are inevitable, irreversible, and, for the most part, positive developments. • would promote cross-cultural understanding, encourage the spread of liberal democratic norms and institutions, and enhance the prospects for international cooperation and peace.
- 53. RECENT DEVOLOPMENT TOCALL THESE ASSSUMPTIONS INTO QUESTIONS • First, the rise in nationalist, populist, anti-immigration, and protectionist sentiments in a number of advanced industrial nations ( raised doubts about the durability of continued economic and societal openness). • Most important, the growing friction between the United States and China over trade, investment, and technology, and their intensifying military, diplomatic, and ideological rivalries have raised the prospect of “decoupling” between the world’s two biggest economies. • policymakers have begun to question its net effects on the nation’s long-term welfare and security.
- 54. • Concerns aboutthe potentially harmful impact of China’s economic policies. • China’s aggressive external behavior are also causing a reexamination of existing ties in other advanced industrial democracies, both in Europe and Asia. “These developments serve as a reminder that, while economic and technological factors are important, politics will ultimately play the decisive role in determining the future of globalization”
- 55. Geopolitical Hegemony andEconomic Openness • “The relationship between economics and politics … . is reciprocal. On the one hand, politics largely determines the framework of economic activity … . On the other hand, the economic process itself tends to redistribute power and wealth … . This in turn leads to a transformation of the political system, thereby giving rise to a new structure of economic relationships. Thus, the dynamics of international relations in the modern world is largely a function of the reciprocal interaction of economics and politics”. Political scientist Robert Gilpin in his 1975 book U.S. Power and the Multinational Corporation
- 56. US BELIEVE • UnitedStates favored an open global economy because they assessed that it served their material interests, but also because they believed that private property and freely functioning markets were the best way of organizing economic activity and that free trade among nations would be conducive to international peace. • Not all hegemons will share these liberal beliefs, however, and while some illiberal hegemons might still prefer openness, other outcomes are more probable. • Hegemony without a liberal commitment to the market economy is more likely to lead to imperial systems and the imposition of political and economic restrictions on lesser powers.
- 57. China’s Challenge toU.S. Hegemony: • Contrary to what the American architects of the new era of globalization expected, and what the proponents of engagement assumed, China’s integration into the international trading system did not lead to the liberalization of its economic and political systems. • At Deng Xiaoping’s direction, China began, in the 1980s, to move away from autarky, rigid central planning, and state ownership of the means of production and toward greater reliance on trade, markets, and a form of private enterprise. • But, instead of succumbing gradually to the irresistible charms of liberal democratic capitalism, the Chinese Communist Party held fast to its determination to maintain a monopoly on domestic political power and, toward this end, to retain ultimate control over the nation’s economy
- 58. • Having forall practical purposes abandoned Marxism, the communist party elite became adherents of what might be called “mercantilist- Leninism.” • The party’s economic policies are thus intended to secure its control at home while enhancing China’s “comprehensive national power” • China’s entry into the World Trade Organization for U.S. policymakers to fully acknowledge the existence of Beijing’s alternative form of capitalism and to begin to wrestle with its implications. • China’s share of global GDP grew from 2 percent to 9 percent during this period, the U.S. portion dropped sharply from over 30 percent in 2000 to 23 percent in 2010.
- 59. • The U.S.share of manufacturing output followed a similar trajectory, rising from 20 percent in 1990 to 23 percent in 2000 before falling back to 20 percent. • Meanwhile,China’s manufacturing output skyrocketed from 3 percent of the world’s total in 1990 to over 18 percent in 2010. • In just two decades, a sixth of the world manufacturing ‘pie’ moved from outside China to inside China, even as total world manufacturing was growing steadily. • The magnitude of the changes underway was also manifest in the rapidly evolving bilateral trade relationship between the United States and China. In 1990, the United States was importing $10 billion more in goods from China than it exported.
- 60. • By 2010,the deficit had grown to over $273 billion, and it would continue to climb, reaching a peak of nearly $419 billion in 2018. • By 2010, U.S. imports from China had grown to $364 billion. • Meanwhile, U.S. exports to China in that year amounted to only $92 billion. • By the end of the first decade of the 21st century, China was thus poised to replace the United States as the world’s leading manufacturing nation and appeared on track to displace it as the world’s biggest economy. • Even before the rise to power of Xi Jinping at the end of 2012 there were already clear signs that China’s economic and political policies were moving in the opposite direction. This was a threat to America’s hegemonic position unlike any it had faced in the postwar period.
- 61. US RESPONSE • Acomparison of the challenges that China and Japan posed to American hegemony reveals a mix of similarities and differences. • U.S. policymakers see China as engaging in unfair trading practices that benefit its firms and national economy at America’s expense. • China is intent on becoming a high-tech superpower • Compared to Japan, the size of China’s population also makes it a more plausible contender for the position of the world’s largest economy and potentially the next global hegemon. • With a population four times as large, China only needs to increase its productivity to one-quarter of that of the United States in order to match its GDP.
- 62. • If Chinasucceeds eventually in approaching the output per capita of the advanced industrial nations, its economy could grow to be as much as four times bigger than America’s. • China has emerged with increasing clarity as a geopolitical and ideological rival and potential military opponent, as well as a commercial competitor. • . American policymakers are once again concerned about an erosion of their country’s position but, as before, they have tended to focus initially on what they see as the external sources of this trend rather than the domestic factors that may be contributing to it. • China is believed to be gaming the international trading system, bending or breaking the rules to its benefit, and failing to live up to the commitments it made upon entering the World Trade Organization.
- 63. • China andthus generally supported a policy of gradualism and opposed measures that might upset a highly profitable status quo. • Companies relied on Chinese counterparts to supply components and do the work of final assembly. • Trump’s first actions as president was to pull the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. • Regulating China’s access to American technology. • United States is now moving toward a more vigorous defense of its relative position in the global economy against the challenge posed by a rising China. • American policymakers are thus starting to think about economic relations with China.
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- 65. DEGLOBALIZATION • Hegemonic stabilitytheory assumes that a single preponderant power is needed to build an open international trading system and predicts that, while not inevitable, the hegemon’s relative decline is likely to lead to systemic breakdown and closure. • At the extreme, an open world economy could collapse completely, fragmenting into a collection of states, each pursuing autarky or narrow national self-reliance. • Despite some rather loose uses of the term, there is, at present, no reason to expect a downward spiral toward anything that could accurately be labeled “deglobalization.”
- 66. • Friction overeconomic issues and rising geopolitical tensions have constricted flows of trade and investment between the United States and China but they have not brought them to a halt. • Support for trade remains high among the public and, even more, among the many U.S. • Beijing is eager to preserve access to the markets, technology, and capital of the advanced democracies for as long as it possibly can. • For these reasons, a total breakdown in U.S.-Chinese trade, or of global trade more generally, appears unlikely.
- 67. • Unlikely, butnot impossible. An actual shooting war between the two powers — a clash over Taiwan, for example — would probably be accompanied by trade embargoes, financial sanctions, and serious disruptions in maritime commerce. As happened in 1914, great- power war could bring the second era of globalization to a sudden and bloody conclusion.
- 68. REGLOBALIZATION: • Theory suggeststhat it may be possible to preserve an open global economic order, even in the event of a hegemon’s relative decline, provided that the major members of the system work together and, in particular, if they are able to use multilateral institutions to enhance communication and lock in cooperation. • The current World Trade Organization-centered system could be saved if the United States renounces unilateralism, China commits to follow the path of liberalization, and all parties agree to strengthen existing dispute-resolution mechanisms and abide by their rulings. • complete breakdown of the existing international economic system is unlikely, at least in the near term.
- 69. • Instead ofbeing rejuvenated, what seems more probable is that the World Trade Organization and other multilateral institutions will live on for some time, despite their diminished utility and notwithstanding occasional efforts at reform
- 70. Hegemony with ChineseCharacteristics (Globalization 3.0): • Throughout history, the decline of one hegemon has been followed eventually by the rise of a new one, most often in the aftermath of a system-shattering war.95 The transition from British to American hegemony, the only such shift to have occurred in the last two centuries, is a rare peaceful exception to this rule. • That feat was made possible in large measure by a growing sense of cultural and ideological convergence between the two powers, the opposite of what is happening now between the United States and China. • A new era of clearcut Chinese hegemony could take years or even decades to emerge. • China’s inability to advance “a compelling vision or ideology in support of an alternative international order” will also make it difficult for Beijing to rally a “counterhegemonic” coalition with which to hasten the demise of American preponderance.
- 71. • Chinese CommunistParty regime actually favors more lopsided arrangements. In fact, in keeping with Beijing’s zero-sum approach to economics, the animating spirit of its policies can more accurately be summed up with the slogan, “openness for thee but not for me.” • Ultimately, China hopes to sit at the center of the global economy and the top of the technological ladder. As for the United States, in the words of Premier Li Keqiang (as reported by former National Security Adviser Gen. H.R. McMaster), its role in the future global economy will “merely be to provide China with raw materials, agricultural products, and energy to fuel its production of the world’s cutting- edge industrial and consumer products.”
- 72. REGIONAL BLOCS • Insteadof fragmenting entirely into a collection of autarkic states, or being knit back together into an integrated whole, the global economy could become divided into increasingly separate and distinct blocs. • This was the scenario that Gilpin considered most likely when he first began to contemplate the possible consequences of the passing of American hegemony in the mid-1970s. • He anticipated that “with the decline of the dominant economic power, the world economy may be … fragmenting into regional trading blocs,” each seeking “through the exercise of economic power … to increase the benefits of interdependence and decrease the costs.” • The construction of more sharply defined economic blocs would not only require that the members lower remaining barriers to trade among themselves, but that they raise barriers to non-members.
- 73. VALUE-BASED BLOCS: • Afinal alternative future would be a world in which the advanced industrial democracies of Europe, Asia, and the Western Hemisphere band together to form a free trade area and perhaps a full economic bloc. • They might be joined in all or part of this endeavor by a few countries that are democratic but less developed (like India), and possibly by a handful of others that are neither democratic nor highly developed (like Vietnam) or highly developed but not democratic (like Singapore).
- 74. Ukraine war andglobalization
- 75. • “Globalization isn’tall about a war, it’s about open trade and commerce. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has abruptly transformed the world order. Millions of people had fled their homes. It’s very sad we have to talk about this in 2022. On the other hand, a new Iron Curtain is grinding, as the military conflict escalates, civilian casualties rise, and evidence of horrific war crimes mounts. An economic war deepens. It’s NATO vs Russia which are redefining their interests, diplomatic boundaries, and ultimately the world order. There is a great emphasis on Europe and its role in the Ukraine war. Multiple bans and trade restrictions with Russia and Russian companies have made a dent in globalization. But the conflict is very West and Euro-centric, which doesn’t seem to be the end of globalization as such. It’s actually the sovereignty of Ukraine which has been hampered badly. Although this is grossly unacceptable, it doesn’t change the world order and seems more to raise questions about the world system. But the biggest question which will hit us soon is about the climate change impacts. Kudos globalization isn’t going anywhere soon.”