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Growth on ICT Enterprise Horizon
- 1. Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) Webinar Growth on the ICT Enterprise Horizon Analysis Based on TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast Presented by Economist Arthur Gruen, With Independent Analyst Ashok Kumar, New Media Systems, Inc. April 1, 2010
- 2. 3-5 Year Forecastand Global in Scope • Report produced by TIA annually since 1986 • Economists Wilkofsky-Gruen Associates • Online version through TelecomTV • Segments information by: – Geography (U.S., international, global) – Sectors & services: • Landline • Wireless • Enterprise • Network equipment • Broadband • VoIP • Data transport • Internet access 2
- 3. Global Market Forecast • Mobiledata-services demand skyrocketing • Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) principal driver 3
- 4. Enterprise Market Drivers • Post-recession recovery 2010-13 dominant driver for next four years • Boom in videoconferencing and Web conferencing • Convergence to IP technologies • Need for more bandwidth • Upgrades to accommodate the transition to IPv6 4
- 5. 2013 Market -$565B We expect the overall market to rise to $565B in 2013 from $499.4B in 2009, a 3.1% compound annual increase. 5
- 6. U.S. Equipment Spending The total enterprise equipment market will expand at a 3% compound annual rate to $112.6B in 2013 from $100.1B in 2009. 6
- 7. Voice Systems/Messaging Rebounds By 2013 voice systems and voice messaging will be the faster- growing category. 7
- 8. Tracking the Rebound Overall voice-centric market projected to expand at a 5% compound annual rate during the next four years, rising to $28.2B in 2013 from $23.1B in 2009. 8
- 9. Revisiting Promise ofUC Enhanced productivity will play a role in promoting growth for the UC market, which should stabilize in 2011 and expand during 2012–13 as the economy expands. 9
- 10. Videoconferencing Equipment Spending Growth The equipment component of the market is forecast to overtake the public room component in 2011. 10
- 11. Videoconferencing Spending Upward Trend Continues Overall market projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.3% from $2.1B in 2009 to $2.9B in 2013. 11
- 12. Web Conferencing Spending Growth for the entire forecast period will average 14.9% on a compound annual basis, with spending increasing from $1.55B billion in 2009 to a projected $2.7B in 2013. 12
- 13. Slow but Steady Audioconferencing Growth By 2013, service bureau spending will total an estimated $3.4B, up 4.1% on a compound annual basis from 2009. 13
- 14. Overall Conferencing Spending The market as a whole will grow at an estimated 8.2% compound annual rate. By 2013, spending will total an estimated $9B. 14
- 15. Contact Center Spending The overall contact center market will expand at a 3.2% compound annual rate during the next four years, rising to an estimated $10.1B in 2013 from $8.9B in 2009. 15
- 16. Data Communications and Internetworking Recovery Overall spending will expand from $84.1B in 2009 to an estimated $93.4B in 2013, a 2.7%compound annual increase. 16
- 17. IP Virtual PrivateNetwork Opportunities Spending on network-based IP VPN service will rise from $6B in 2009 to $11.7B in 2013, an 18.3% compound annual increase. 17
- 18. More Customer-Premises Services By 2013, leased line spending projected to total $13.45B, a 2.4% compound annual increase from $12.25B in 2009. 18
- 19. Overall Data Communications Services Spending Rebounds Beginning in 2011, a rebound in leased lines and faster growth in the IP VPN will help total data communication service revenue 19 growth.
- 20. Enterprise and the Environment • Focus on Green Initiatives: – Growth in Conferencing Services – Reducing Data Center Energy Use – Managing Carbon Footprint – Sustainable Networks – Emergence of Smart Devices • Motivation: – Public Service/PR – Cost Savings 20
- 21. More on OtherSectors Soon 21
- 22. Research Methodology 1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources 2. Identify underlying economic, technological, regulatory and competitive factors 3. Develop models to quantify impact of factors on industry revenues 4. Create forecast scenario for each causative factor and assign relative significance weight 5. Apply proprietary mathematical models and algorithms to compute range of prospective results 6. Tune the results based on professional expertise and institutional knowledge 22
- 23. How To Order TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast Mobile and Wireless Communications Chapter Is Available Today http://www.tiaonline.org/market_intelligence/mrf/index.cfm 23
- 24. TIA: A World-RecognizedAuthority Since 1924, TIA has represented the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry Works through Policy, Standards, Environment, Intelligence and Networking 3,000 TIA standards developed, including: New Committee: Smart Communications Devices Data centers and Cat 5/Cat 6 cabling Cell towers and CDMA technology CALEA and P25 Ethernet 24
- 25. TIA Board ofDirectors Recognized leadership Advances association mission ADTRAN | Alcatel-Lucent | ANDA Networks | AttivaCorp | Cisco Systems | Ericsson, Inc. | GENBAND, Inc. | Graybar | Henkels & McCoy | ILS Technology | Intel Corp. | Intersect, Inc.| LGE | Microsoft | Nokia Siemens Networks | Openwave, Inc. | Panasonic Computer Solutions Co. | Powerwave Technologies| Qualcomm | Research In Motion | Sumitomo Electric Lightwave Corporation | Tellabs | Tyco Electronics | Ulticom, Inc. | Wirefree Advisors to the Board: FAL Associates | Orca Systems | Telcordia Technologies 25
- 26.
- 27. Thank You! Contact TIA at [email protected] tiaonline.org 27