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Grp5 outlook bot53
The document summarizes a meeting of the Group on Research Program (GRP) on Climate Change held on April 5, 2011 in Nairobi. The GRP focuses on adaptation and mitigation research related to climate change impacts on agroforestry systems. Key areas of research include impact assessment, adaptation strategies, and mitigation approaches such as carbon sequestration. Ongoing projects were also presented that examine topics like climate analogues, vulnerabilities, and greenhouse gas fluxes.
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Grp5 outlook bot53
- 1. ICRAF BOT Meeting ICRAF BOT Meeting Nairobi, 5 April 2011 GRP on Climate Change GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011 Henry Neufeldt On behalf of the whole GRP5 team
- 2. Research Focus of the GRP on Climate Change GRP 5.1 on Adaptation: Vulnerability and adaptation of agroforestry systems to climate variability and change GRP 5.2 on Mitigation: Advancing carbon sequestration through agroforestry to enhance livelihoods while mitigating climate change • Impact Assessment • Downscaling climate models and development of climate analogues • Climate impacts on agroforestry species pollinators vectors and diseases Climate impacts on agroforestry species, pollinators, vectors and diseases • Impacts on economic activities • Adaptation research • Assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies • Improving adaptive capacity (e.g. through agroforestry) • Limits of adaptation and innovative risk management strategies • Mitigation research • Using RES and other approaches for climate change mitigation • Development of (more) sustainable biofuel production systems (e.g. charcoal) p ( ) p y ( g ) • Assessment of GHG fluxes from different soils and LU systems
- 3. Key Successes Plants from temperate and cold climates may delayed in their spring phases due to later fulfilment of phases due tolater fulfilment of chilling requirements in warm winters. Continued warming due to climate change may strengthen this effect and change may strengthen this effect and attenuate or even reverse the observed advancing trends in spring p phenology.gy
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- 9. ICRAF is oneof the organizers of the 1st and 2nd national CC Adaptation conference in the Philippines 9
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- 11. List of all ongoing projects with climate change contexts •Predictability of the climatic information for reducing tropical agriculture vulnerability (PICREVAT) •Secular evolution of climate in circum‐atlantic regions and responses of eco‐lacustrine sustems (ESCARSEL) •Rungwe Environmental Science Observatory Network (RESON) •Opportunity Cost of Different Land Use Options to Promote Agroforestry, Carbon and Biodiversity Assets: Case Study in Xishuangbanna •Coping, Adaptation and Vulnerability to Drought in Yunnan, Southwest China •Understanding Vulnerability of the Poor Mountain Farmers and Their Adaptation to Climate Variability and Socio‐economic Stressors in Southwest China •Parkland trees and livelihoods: adapting to climate change in the West African Sahel •Wood quality and carbon‐neutral fuelwood systems of native tree/shrub species in natural populations in the West African Sahel W d li d b lf l d f i /h b i i l l i i h W Af i S h l •National REDD network of Vietnam •Rewards for, Use of and shared investment in Pro‐poor Environmental Services schemes (RUPES), phase II •Agroforestry for Climate change Adaptation in Vietnam and Kenya ‐ Local and Scientific knowledge for Option Development •Architecture of REALU: Reducing Emissions from All Land Uses‐ REALU (Phase II) •Toward a biodiverse rubber estate: Quick biodiversity survey of Bridgestone Sumatra Rubber Estate •Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (I‐REDD) •Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (I REDD) •Strategies to Use Biofuel Value Chains in Sub‐Saharan Africa to Respond to Global Change (Better‐iS) •Pro poor rewards for environmental services in Africa (PRESA) •Resilient Agro‐landscapes to Climate Change in Tanzania (ReACCT) •Carbon sequestration potential of parkland agroforestry in the Sahel (Cseq Sahel) •Carbon assessment in robusta shade coffee systems of Uganda (‘Carbon Coffee’) •Adaptation of Land‐use to Climate Change in sub‐Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); same as 35 Adaptation of Land use to Climate Change in sub Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); same as 35 •Accountability Local Level Initiative to Reduce Emission from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia (ALLREDDI) •Encouraging tree planting for carbon sequestration in Malawi •Crop insurance scheme and adaptation to climate change in the Shire river basin Malawi •Bioenergy Provision within Agroforestry Systems in East Africa •Analysis of the effects of inter‐annual variation in rainfall and occurrence of extreme events on water use efficiency by crops in Agroforestry •Climate analogues: A flexible and powerful web‐based tool for identifying and visualizing climate analogues •Power Relations and REDD: unpacking ‘carbon rights’ and addressing the question of legality in Indonesia •Fair and efficient and Sustainable Emission Reduction from Land Use in Indonesia (FESERLUI) •A Study of Carbon Footprint of Indonesian Palm Oil Production •Forests and Climate in the Asia Pacific Region •Patterns of Vulnerability in the Forestry, Agriculture, Water Sectors and the Costal Zones in Leyte Island, Philippines •Feasibility of REDD mechanisms in the case of the East Usambaras, Tanzania •Sumatran orangutan habitat ecosystem services assessment and opportunity cost analysis S h bi i d i l i •Rewards for Use of and Shared Investment in Pro‐poor Environmental Services (RUPES) – Kalahan, Philippines •Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific •Carbon Mitigation Potential of REDD in the Philippines: Will it make a Difference in Financing Forest Development? •Overcoming Barriers of Smallholder Forestry Carbon Development in the Philippines •Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Development in Southeast Asia •Tropical Forest and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) •Tropical Forest and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) •Carbon Benefits Project: Measurement, Monitoring and Modeling (CBP:MMM) •Enabling small holders to improve their livelihoods and benefit from carbon finance •The COMART FOUNDATION West Kenya Project 2010 Impact Assessment •Biochar inoculants for enabling smallholder agriculture (BREAD)
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- 13. New opportunities New grants • Care project: Making carbon finance work for the poor • BREAD project: GHG fluxes and biochar • MICCA project: Mitigation of climate change in agriculture p j g g g • CCAFS funding for GHG flux measurements in western Kenya New proposals • BMZ proposal on climate extremes in Southeast Asia BMZ proposal on climate extremes in Southeast Asia • ESPA proposal on ecosystem services in coffee agroforestry landscapes in East Africa • Finnish Biocarbon proposal in western Africa • Comart proposal on ABCD in western Kenya Comart proposal on ABCD in western Kenya • NSF application on plant physiology and stable isotopes for optimization of wood production
- 14. Integration and collaboration with CRPs CRP7: Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) • CCAFS scientists at ICRAF: Patti Kristjanson, Moushumi Chaudhury, Michael Misiko • CCAFS workshops in Mexico and Bonn (upcoming) •CCAFS support for research: • GHG fluxes (Matthias; new measurements) • Care project • Gender and climate change • Household and village baselines CRP6.4: Climate change adaptation and mitigation in ‘Forests Trees and Agroforestry’ • Involvement in proposal writing • Meeting in May to develop logframe Gaps and overlaps between CCAFS and CRP6.4 Gaps and overlaps between CCAFS and CRP6.4 • Planned meeting in early June with participation of ICRAF, CCAFS and CRP6.4 staff
- 15. Results from CCAFS work in western Kenya Changes in Soil Carbon (from Quickbirdimage) and Number of Hunger Months per Household: Lower Nyando Block, western Kenya Most of our households on soils of poor fertility; Those on higher fertility soils still food insecure in a ‘normal’ rainfall year
- 16. Constraints / risks • Adaptation /vulnerability work requires hiring a social scientist Adaptation / vulnerability work requires hiring a social scientist • Need to be able to effectively assess above‐ground biomass requires hiring a new natural scientist hiring a new natural scientist • CCAFS and CRP6.4 consume too much coordination and administration in relation to the benefits in relation to the benefits • High fluctuation of funds for GHG flux measurements • Cost intensive • Sub‐optimal methodology • No champion to lead the research • Diffi lt i t Difficult integration across regions ti i • Benchmark sites • Agree on consistent measurement approaches for key concepts
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- 18. Annual mean temperature anomalies (relative to 1980‐1999) (Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007)
- 19. Annual mean precipitation anomalies (relative to 1980‐1999) (Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007)
- 20. Possible climate change impacts (depending on trajectory) (Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007; Mitigation Baseline van Vuuren et al., 2010)
- 21. Contributions to climate change Agriculture, forestry and land use change are currently A i lt f t dl d h tl responsible for 25% to 30% of total GHG emissions
- 22. Projection of medium‐high climate change and variability In one way or another … 2060s 61-90) °C observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2040s Temperatur anomal (wrt 196 2003 re ly … we will adapt to climate change
- 23. Correlation between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe 15.0 3.0 2.0 Meter) 10.0 Real GDP growth (% ) % Varia bility in Rainfall (M 1.0 10 5.0 0.0 R -1.0 0.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 -2.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 R -5.0 Real GDP grow th (%) -3.0 Variability in Rainfall (Meter) -10.0 -10 0 -4.0 -4 0 Years Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
- 24. The cross‐cutting agenda of Climate Change research at ICRAF Developing policies and incentives fo or multifunctional landscapess with trees that GRP6 provide environ nmental ser rvices e.g. Climate Go overnance; Institution ns; Policy Climate Change impacts, adaptation and mitigation Impro oving the a ability of far rmers, GRP5 ecosy ystems andd governme ents to cope with climate change Regional context: 6 ecoregions e.g. V Vulnerabili ity assessm ment; CC im mpacts Reducing risks to land health and targeting agrof foestry inte erventions t to enhancee land GRP4 produ uctivity e.g. Carbon seq questration n in landsca apes Impro oving tree‐product marketing fo or GRP3 smallholders e.g. Certificatio on, index‐in nsurance Maximmizing on‐f farm produuctivity of t trees and a agroforestry y systems GRP2 e.g. Resilience of differen nt AF system ms Dome estication, utilization and conservation GRP1 of sup perior agro oforestry ge ermplasm e.g. Impacts of f CC on species distrib bution
- 25. Key Successes Trees on farms: Tackling the triple challenge of mitigation, adaptation and food security mitigation, adaptation and food security Trees on farms address Trees on farms address climate change mitigation and adaptation, and food and adaptation, and food security by storing carbon, buffering against climate‐ related impacts and providing additional income through tree‐based products tree based products
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- 27. How GRP5 interfaces with the regions Project for the Prediction and Evaluation of Climate Change’s g Impact on Agroforestry Systems in Climate Change the Peruvian Amazon and Adaptation through best Ecuadorian Andean Regions d i d i practices in the Morogoro Region Millet production is enhanced due to the Faidherbia albida in the fields What kind of relationship is needed or useful? Wh ki d f l i hi i d d f l?
- 28. Key Successes Global survey of REDD projects and survey of Africa s biocarbon experience Africa’s biocarbon experience The current patterns of REDD investments across the tropics will miss important opportunities to maximize emissions reductions. Investments in emissions reductions. Investments in REDD demonstration projects, particularly in Africa, should be increased, in order to generate practical increased in order to generate practical lessons for future REDD implementation and to enhance participation in mainstream carbon markets mainstream carbon markets