How to turn a guesstimate business model canvas into a fact-based one, and considerably minimize the risk of failure - By William Choukeir
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The document outlines a process for transforming a guesstimate business model canvas into a fact-based model to reduce failure risk, focused on opportunities, and business metrics. It details steps for business validation, customer understanding, market assessment, and iterative development, including building minimum viable products (MVPs) to test hypotheses. Additionally, it emphasizes continuous data collection and analysis to inform decisions about scaling and pivoting within the business model framework.
How to turn a guesstimate business model canvas into a fact-based one, and considerably minimize the risk of failure - By William Choukeir
- 1. Thank you to our sponsors GOLD SILVER BRONZE HOST
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- 3. How to turn a guesstimate business model canvas into a fact-based one, and considerably minimize the risk of failure By William Choukeir
- 5. William Choukeir Venture consultant, Designer, Generalist Co-founded therefordesign.com Co-founded 1st TEDxBeirut Mind, body, and rock climbing buff
- 6. Who are you?
- 10. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google
- 11. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google
- 12. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE
- 13. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE
- 14. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE ALGORITHM
- 15. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE ALGORITHM SERVERS
- 16. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE ALGORITHM SERVERS IMPROVE
- 17. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE ALGORITHM SERVERS IMPROVE $$$
- 18. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE ALGORITHM SERVERS IMPROVE $$$ $ZERO
- 19. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE ALGORITHM SERVERS IMPROVE $$$ $ZERO MARKETEERS
- 20. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE ALGORITHM SERVERS IMPROVE $$$ $ZERO MARKETEERSEYES
- 21. EVERYONE The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com FIND Google WEBSITE SELF SERVICE ALGORITHM SERVERS IMPROVE $$$ $ZERO MARKETEERSEYES $$$$$$
- 25. False sense of confidence
- 26. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991
- 27. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS
- 28. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE
- 29. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE
- 30. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE SATELLITES
- 31. SATELLITES The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE $3000 EACH
- 32. SATELLITES The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE $3000 EACH $7 / MIN
- 33. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE $3000 EACH $7 / MIN 15 ROCKETS SATELLITES
- 34. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE $3000 EACH $7 / MIN 15 ROCKETS SATELLITES 66 SATELLITES
- 35. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE $3000 EACH $7 / MIN 15 ROCKETS SATELLITES 66 SATELLITES SALES
- 36. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE $3000 EACH $7 / MIN 15 ROCKETS SATELLITES 66 SATELLITES SALES MAINTENANCE
- 37. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE $3000 EACH $7 / MIN 15 ROCKETS SATELLITES 66 SATELLITES SALES MAINTENANCE GOVERNMENTS
- 38. The Business Model Canvas Revenue Streams Channels Customer SegmentsValue PropositionsKey ActivitiesKey Partners Key Resources Cost Structure Customer Relationships : Business Model Foundry AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Iridium 1991 DEEP POCKETS PERSONAL ASSITANCE CALL FROM ANYWHERE $3000 EACH $7 / MIN 15 ROCKETS SATELLITES 66 SATELLITES SALES MAINTENANCE GOVERNMENTS $6 BILLION
- 39. 7 Years
- 40. 9 Months
- 41. False sense of confidence
- 42. What would Sherlock do?
- 44. Validate Problem Validate Solution Validate Business Model Get Ready To Sell Sell Develop Company & Product Position Deep Assessment: Pivot-or-proceed Do We Have Facts That The Company Can Scale? PHASE 3 Grow Customer Base & Demand Preparation Develop Business Model & Hypotheses ◉ Estimate the total market opportunity for the company ◉ Set long-term vision, product strategy, and 18-month schedule ◉ Develop hypotheses for customer segments, value proposition, product features and benefits and what’s a high fidelity MVP like? ◉ Develop hypotheses for distribution channels ◉ Set an initial Market Type and positioning hypothesis ◉ Develop hypotheses for customer relationships: Strategies and tactics to Get, Keep, and Grow customers ◉ Identify key resources required, and develop hypotheses for what each will cost, and how it’ll be found and secured ◉ Develop hypotheses for key partners, and the company's 'Value exchange' with each ◉ Develop revenue and pricing hypotheses and pricing tactics ◉ Design experiments for testing the hypotheses ◉ Develop a process to collect results and analyse the data ◉ Continuously run the experiments ◉ Build a low fidelity MVP to quantify interest in a solution to the problem ◉ Run low fidelity MVP, collect data, and reinforce learnings with live interviews ◉ Gather and gain in-depth understanding of customer segments ◉ Gather and gain in-depth understanding of the market environment ◉ Assemble all learnings, assess the data and determine whether to pivot or proceed ◉ Update the business model canvas, team, and 18-month delivery schedule ◉ Design a high fidelity MVP to quantify the intensity of customers’ enthusiasm for the product ◉ Identify critical metrics to determine customer enthusiasm and build them into the high fidelity MVP ◉ Assemble all learnings from day one, assess the data (focused around customer enthusiasm) and determine whether to pivot or proceed ◉ Update the business model canvas, team, and 18-month delivery schedule accordingly ◉ Begin to identify initial list of advisory board members ◉ Pause all efforts to verify Product/Market Fit. Deeply assess each question: Serious problem/need? Does product addresses problem/need? Are there enough customers? Pivot or proceed. Update the business model canvas accordingly ◉ Develop a detailed understanding of who the customers are, how we reach them, and what it costs to get them. Update the business model canvas accordingly ◉ Determine if the company can be profitable: Reasonable estimate of the company’s revenue forecast across 4–8 quarters. Update the business model canvas accordingly ◉ Collect all learnings for all-hands-on-deck pivot or proceed meeting ◉ All stakeholders meet to deeply assessment whether the modified hypotheses provide a solid foundation for moving forward to larger-scale testing and test-selling (How much can the company scale and how?) ◉ Craft company positioning statement: clear, compelling message explaining why the company is different and the product is worth buying ◉ Devise plans for getting customers to the app to sign up or buy: Aquire and activation plans ◉ Create a polished High Fidelity MVP which will be used to generate a steady stream of customer and product behavior data to refine the business model and product ◉ Determine which key business metrics to measure and develop a system or dashboard for collecting and monitoring data ◉ Hire a dedicated analytics expert on the senior management team ◉ Formally engage advisors who can facilitate high-level introductions and are top-notch “out of the box” thinkers ◉ Assemble all data, reports, questionnaires, map, diagrams, business model components, etc., for full review ◉ Use facts gathered to validate the business model and ensure all business model hypotheses have been converted into facts ◉ Ensure the startup can become a profitable, scalable business before it runs out of money ◉ Further validate the business model to determine if the company is making the best bet possible, and that the revenue is as high and costs as low as they can realistically be ◉ Decide whether to execute the business model and start creating demand and building a user base ◉ Agreement among investors, founders, and team on commitment to the process outlined here. ◉ Initial agreement on Market Type & appropriate funding needs (Re-segmented Market) ◉ Cash burn rate in # of months (Runway). Is there enough funding for 2-3 pivots? ◉ Agree on approximate time frame ◉ Agree on exit criteria for customer discovery ◉ Agreement on founders being present during customer interviews ◉ Agreement on who leads the team ◉ Agreement on responsibilities and roles-to-be-aquired (Is this the right team) ◉ Agreement on 3 to 5 Core Values of the founding team. What does the company believe in? ◉ Develop a plan that defines acquisition metrics to optimize, and how customer behavior will be monitored and optimized ◉ Implement the plan and optimise continuously by testing and improving the plan ◉ Optimize “Keep” And “Grow” Results, and validate sales potential of app ◉ Test Sell Traffic Partners: Get deals or firm commitments from prospective traffic partners ◉ Formalize the product’s positioning through customer validation ◉ Ensure product positioning matches company’s market type through customer validation ◉ Develop Company Positioning statement that fully articulates the company’s vision and mission ◉ Validate product and company positioning, and product features through detailed feedback about the marketplace and product from key analysts and influencers PHASE 1 Validate Problem, Solution, & Business Model PHASE 2: Validate How Much We Can Scale & How
- 45. Interviews Ad tracking Landing page Low /High fidelity MVP Unique link tracking A/B testing Prototype Video Brochures & data sheets Wizard of Oz Mock sales & pre sales A|B
- 46. Validate Problem Validate Solution Validate Business Model Get Ready To Sell Sell Develop Company & Product Position Deep Assessment: Pivot-or-proceed Do We Have Facts That The Company Can Scale? PHASE 3 Grow Customer Base & Demand Preparation Develop Business Model & Hypotheses ◉ Estimate the total market opportunity for the company ◉ Set long-term vision, product strategy, and 18-month schedule ◉ Develop hypotheses for customer segments, value proposition, product features and benefits and what’s a high fidelity MVP like? ◉ Develop hypotheses for distribution channels ◉ Set an initial Market Type and positioning hypothesis ◉ Develop hypotheses for customer relationships: Strategies and tactics to Get, Keep, and Grow customers ◉ Identify key resources required, and develop hypotheses for what each will cost, and how it’ll be found and secured ◉ Develop hypotheses for key partners, and the company's 'Value exchange' with each ◉ Develop revenue and pricing hypotheses and pricing tactics ◉ Design experiments for testing the hypotheses ◉ Develop a process to collect results and analyse the data ◉ Continuously run the experiments ◉ Build a low fidelity MVP to quantify interest in a solution to the problem ◉ Run low fidelity MVP, collect data, and reinforce learnings with live interviews ◉ Gather and gain in-depth understanding of customer segments ◉ Gather and gain in-depth understanding of the market environment ◉ Assemble all learnings, assess the data and determine whether to pivot or proceed ◉ Update the business model canvas, team, and 18-month delivery schedule ◉ Design a high fidelity MVP to quantify the intensity of customers’ enthusiasm for the product ◉ Identify critical metrics to determine customer enthusiasm and build them into the high fidelity MVP ◉ Assemble all learnings from day one, assess the data (focused around customer enthusiasm) and determine whether to pivot or proceed ◉ Update the business model canvas, team, and 18-month delivery schedule accordingly ◉ Begin to identify initial list of advisory board members ◉ Pause all efforts to verify Product/Market Fit. Deeply assess each question: Serious problem/need? Does product addresses problem/need? Are there enough customers? Pivot or proceed. Update the business model canvas accordingly ◉ Develop a detailed understanding of who the customers are, how we reach them, and what it costs to get them. Update the business model canvas accordingly ◉ Determine if the company can be profitable: Reasonable estimate of the company’s revenue forecast across 4–8 quarters. Update the business model canvas accordingly ◉ Collect all learnings for all-hands-on-deck pivot or proceed meeting ◉ All stakeholders meet to deeply assessment whether the modified hypotheses provide a solid foundation for moving forward to larger-scale testing and test-selling (How much can the company scale and how?) ◉ Craft company positioning statement: clear, compelling message explaining why the company is different and the product is worth buying ◉ Devise plans for getting customers to the app to sign up or buy: Aquire and activation plans ◉ Create a polished High Fidelity MVP which will be used to generate a steady stream of customer and product behavior data to refine the business model and product ◉ Determine which key business metrics to measure and develop a system or dashboard for collecting and monitoring data ◉ Hire a dedicated analytics expert on the senior management team ◉ Formally engage advisors who can facilitate high-level introductions and are top-notch “out of the box” thinkers ◉ Assemble all data, reports, questionnaires, map, diagrams, business model components, etc., for full review ◉ Use facts gathered to validate the business model and ensure all business model hypotheses have been converted into facts ◉ Ensure the startup can become a profitable, scalable business before it runs out of money ◉ Further validate the business model to determine if the company is making the best bet possible, and that the revenue is as high and costs as low as they can realistically be ◉ Decide whether to execute the business model and start creating demand and building a user base ◉ Agreement among investors, founders, and team on commitment to the process outlined here. ◉ Initial agreement on Market Type & appropriate funding needs (Re-segmented Market) ◉ Cash burn rate in # of months (Runway). Is there enough funding for 2-3 pivots? ◉ Agree on approximate time frame ◉ Agree on exit criteria for customer discovery ◉ Agreement on founders being present during customer interviews ◉ Agreement on who leads the team ◉ Agreement on responsibilities and roles-to-be-aquired (Is this the right team) ◉ Agreement on 3 to 5 Core Values of the founding team. What does the company believe in? ◉ Develop a plan that defines acquisition metrics to optimize, and how customer behavior will be monitored and optimized ◉ Implement the plan and optimise continuously by testing and improving the plan ◉ Optimize “Keep” And “Grow” Results, and validate sales potential of app ◉ Test Sell Traffic Partners: Get deals or firm commitments from prospective traffic partners ◉ Formalize the product’s positioning through customer validation ◉ Ensure product positioning matches company’s market type through customer validation ◉ Develop Company Positioning statement that fully articulates the company’s vision and mission ◉ Validate product and company positioning, and product features through detailed feedback about the marketplace and product from key analysts and influencers PHASE 1 Validate Problem, Solution, & Business Model PHASE 2: Validate How Much We Can Scale & How
- 47. What would Yoda do?
- 52. Thank you! –William Choukeir bit.ly/agileyoda Get these resources: • These slides • Prezi: Business Model Validation Phases & Milestones • Google Spreadsheet: Channel metrics & funnel • Books • Links & videos