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Impacts of Climate Change
- 1. Impacts of ClimateChange Andreas Schmittner Joint Meeting of Engineers for a Sustainable Future and the Sustainable Future Section of the Oregon State Bar, Nov. 13, 2018
- 2. What Do YouThink Are Impacts of Climate Change?
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- 6. glaciers shrinking worldwide MuirGlacier, SE Alaska USGS & NPS photographs 1941 1950 2004 Melting of mountain glaciers contributes about 1 mm/yr to sea level rise
- 7. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/ Sea Level Contribution 0.75mm/yr Sea Level Contribution 0.25 mm/yr Greenland Antarctica
- 8. http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/ Glaciers = 1mm/yr Ice Sheets = 1 mm/yr Ocean Thermal Expansion = 1 mm/yr (~8 in)
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- 10. CO¿flux(GtC/yr) Global Carbon Project Data:CDIAC/NOAA−ESRL/GCP Atmosphere Land sink Ocean sink Land−use change Fossil fuels and industry 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 16 −10 −5 0 5 10 Total estimated sources do not match total estimated sinks. This imbalance reflects the gap in our understanding. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/ Cumulative emissions (area under grey curve) = 500 Gt = 0.5 Tt
- 11. =3.7xGtC 1 gallon gas= 5 pounds of carbon 1 t = 2200 pounds = 440 gallon gas Each American emits 4.5 tC/year
- 12. Expected Impacts from ContinuedCarbon Emissions • More warming • More melting of snow and ice • More sea level rise • More shifts in vegetation and ecosystems
- 13. Tundra Taiga a.k.a. Boreal Forest Borealforest will replace tundra. What other animals live in the tundra?
- 14. Other Concerns •Irreversibility •Extreme Events •PositiveFeedbacks •Permafrost Melting •Tipping points •Ice Sheet Collapse •Ocean Circulation Slowdown/Collapse •Ocean Acidification
- 15. Unequal Distribution ofClimate Change
- 16. km accumulation meltingHE ice flow equilibrium line *** * distance km H H = average ice sheet height distance km km HE ** * * • Equilibrium line rises. • More surface are is below equilibrium line in melt zone. • Increased melting. H * * * HE * * * * H • Ice sheet shrinks and elevation drops. • Because at lower elevation temperatures are higher, even more melting occurs.
- 17. Melting Ice Sheet Elevation-MassBalance Feedback Lower Surface Elevation Warmer Temperatures + positive feedback • Positive feedback leads to a threshold for the equilibrium line. • If higher than average ice sheet height, the ice sheet will disappear. • It will only grow back if equilibrium line is decreased below zero (ground), that is below its current elevation. Irreversibility. • Greenland is close to threshold.Vulnerable to warming. 1.5°C global mean warming will lead to its irreversible demise (Robinson et al., 2012, Nat. Clim. Change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1449). • East Antarctic ice sheet is not close to the threshold. May even grow due to increased snowfall in warmer climate. threshold
- 18. Greenland Ice Sheet= 7 m sea level rise West Antarctic Ice Sheet = 5 m sea level rise 4xCO2 Complete melting will take many centuries or even thousands of years.
- 19. West Antarctic IceSheet Vulnerable to sea level rise because much of its grounding line is below sea level. Sea level rise could make parts of it float.Warming ocean melts ice shelves from below. Removing ice shelves can speed up the ice sheet flow. Its disintegration would lead to 6 m of sea level rise. Huybrechts 2009 Nature
- 20. Antarctic Ice SheetProjections DeConto and Pollard (2016) Nature
- 21. Long-Term Changes Clark et al.(2016) Nature Clim. Change
- 22. Clark et al.(2016) Nature Clim. Change Long-Term Changes
- 23. Clark et al.,2018, Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0226-6 Sea Level Rise
- 24. Bakker et al.(2016) Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2016GL070457 Ocean Circulation Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
- 25. Permafrost Koven et al.,2015, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 Additional carbon (and methane) input to atmosphere but no runaway feedback. 10% Effect +10-20 GtC +30-100 GtC
- 26. Extreme Events • Heatwaves will become more common • Cold spells will become less common • Number of tropical cyclones (Hurricanes) will not increase but we’ll get more strong ones (Cat 4 & 5 will increase) • More droughts, more flooding due to intensification of water cycle • More wildfires
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- 28. Calcifying Organisms 28 Ca2+ + CO3 2−⎯ →⎯← ⎯⎯ CaCO3 Coccolithophores Pteropods (Sea Butterfly) Foraminifera Coral Calcite Aragonite
- 30. What can wedo?
- 31. IPCC SR15 Fig.SPM3a
- 32. Climate Change •Its real •Itsus •Its serious
- 33. We can dosomething about it!