Intensification of Brazilian Agriculture: reconciling protection of the Amazon forest with agricultural production – Sustainable crop intensification: from concept to real world examples – 2023 Water for Food Global Conference.pptx

Intensification of Brazilian Agriculture: reconciling protection of the Amazon forest with agricultural production – Sustainable crop intensification: from concept to real world examples – 2023 Water for Food Global Conference.pptx

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  Intensification of BrazilianAgriculture: reconciling protection of the Amazon forest with agricultural production Dr Alencar Zanon Professor of Agronomy Federal University of Santa Maria, Brazil
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  • Brazil: majorproducer and exporter of soybean, maize and beef (42.5 million ha planted with soybean) Context • Agricultural production has progressively shifted from the historical area in the south to the Cerrado • Soybean production drove deforestation during the late 1990s and early 2000s. • 2005–2015 was marked by a tangible progress in reducing deforestation rates -> Amazon basin still has 330 million ha • The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine • Sharp increase in crop commodity prices • Desire of governments to quickly recover from negative economic impact
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  • Investigate recenttrends (post 2007) in soybean yield and expansion • Estimate soybean-maize extra production potential through intensification on existing cropland area • Assess environmental and production outcomes for different scenarios of intensification Objectives
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  Recent trends insoybean area and yield Marín et al. (Nature Sustainability, 2022) Soybean area has expanded at 1.4 Million ha per year during the recent 2007–2019 period The increase of soybean expansion in the Amazon accounted for one third of the land converted for soybean production in Brazil between 2015 and 2019 Yield improvement has been slower in the Cerrado and the Amazon than in other regions Increase in agricultural output has largely resulted from cropland expansion rather than an increase in cropland productivity.
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  Large yield gapsfor soybean (and maize too) Marín et al. (Nature Sustainability, 2022) Pie charts showing average yield (green) and exploitable yield gaps* (yellow) across the four main producing regions in Brazil (Pampa, Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia) * Exploitable yield gap defined as the different between average yield and 80% of yield potential 1. Soybean high water limited yield potential (5.4 t ha-1) 2. Stable yield (inter-annual CV= 4%) 3. Large yield gap (53% of Yw) 4. Large area (17 million ha) If farmers reaching 80% of the Yw in the Cerrado: Soybean: Yield increase: +1.7 t ha-1 Production increase: 30 million tons Maize: Yield increase: +3.2 t ha-1 Production increase: +54 million tons Equivalent to 9.4 million new hectares of land
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  Source: Global YieldGap Atlas (www.yieldgap.org) 0 20 40 60 80 100 USA Argentina Brazil Average yield (% of potential) * Water-limited yield potential estimated using crop simulation models and local weather, soil, and crop calendars. Potential = 4.8 t ha-1 Gap ≈ 22% Potential = 5.4 t ha-1 Gap ≈ 45% Potential = 3.9 t ha-1 Gap ≈ 32% Yield gaps in Brazil in context
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  Scenario assessment Marín etal. (Nature Sustainability, 2022) Business-as-usual (BAU): scenario in which historical yield improvement and land-use change patterns persist during the next 15 years Intensification (INT) • acceleration of rates on yield improvement for soybean and maize • further adoption of second-crop maize on existing soybean area wherever the climate makes double-cropping possible • a parallel intensification of pasture-based livestock systems so that part of current pastureland and grassland is freed up for soybean production. No cropland expansion (NCE) a scenario in which historical yield improvement continues over the next 15 years, but there is NO cropland expansion
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  Scenarios of soybeanproduction 1) Business-as-usual (BAU) • Sharp increase in production but massive land conversion (36 to 59 million ha) 2) No cropland expansion (NCE) • 40% lower soybean and second-crop maize production compared with BAU scenario, 3) Intensification (INT) • Soybean production increases to 162 Million t by 2035, mitigating the opportunity cost associated with the NCS scenario. Marín et al. (Nature Sustainability, 2022)
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  Marín et al.(Nature Sustainability, 2022) Environmental outcomes 1) Business-as-usual (BAU) • 5.7 million ha of forests and savannah into soybean cultivation and an associated 1,955 MtCO2e released due to land conversion 2) No cropland expansion (NCE) • avoids deforestation and reduces global warming potential, but incurs into a huge opportunity cost in terms of economic output (US$447 billion over the 15-year study period) 3) Intensification (INT) • achieves an aggregated gross income from soybean and second-crop maize that represents 85% of that in the BAU scenario • the total global warming potential decreases by 58% in the INT versus the BAU scenario • a reasonable balance between increasing agricultural output and reducing the negative environmental impact
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  IMPACT IN RESEARCH,EXTENSION AND TEACHING
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  New project: 5+10: intensifyingsoybean-maize systems in the Brazilian Cerrado
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  Goal: foster asustainable intensification of the soybean- maize production systems in the Brazilian Cerrado
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  Project description Adapted fromAndrade et al., Agricultural System, 2022
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  New ‘Corn Belt’in Brazil: triple cropping with irrigation
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  • Assessment forBrazil shows that intensification can help achieve a reasonable balance between crop production and protection of fragile ecosystems. Conclusions • Acceleration of crop yield gains, coupled with parallel intensification of the livestock sector, would enable Brazil to increase current soybean production by 36% by 2035 without deforestation and with a notable reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared with following present trends. • Intensification can complement other approaches to protect fragile ecosystems, such as certification programs and forest moratoriums • Without an emphasis on intensifying crop production within the existing agricultural area, coupled with strong institutions and policies that prevent deforestation in frontier agricultural areas, it would be difficult to protect the last bastions of forests and biodiversity on the planet while being sensitive to the economic aspirations of countries to develop
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  Thank you! Muitoobrigado!