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Uploaded bySan Diego County Water Authority
January 10, 2013
The document summarizes a meeting to discuss planning for climate change impacts on water supply. Speakers will brief attendees on local climate studies showing warming trends and projections of reduced precipitation and snowpack. This could decrease water supply. Regulations like AB 32 require reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Water Authority partners with scientists and other agencies to understand climate impacts and find solutions. It incorporates climate change into long-term planning and develops strategies to diversify supply, increase storage, and promote conservation and efficiency to adapt to potential impacts.
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More from San Diego County Water Authority
January 10, 2013
- 1. Planning for ClimateChange Special Water Planning Committee Meeting January 10, 2013
- 2. Workshop Agenda Introductionof speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current climate change regulations Water Authority’s planning for climate change Next steps 2
- 3. Water Supply andClimate Change Potential impacts on supply and demand require adaptive planning approach Legislative and regulatory requirements CEQA / AB 32 Water Authority formed partnerships to enhance science understanding & collaborate on solutions Water Authority 2010 Urban Water Management Plan Impacts of climate change on demand and supplies Local climate modeling provided by Scripps Institute 3
- 4. Climate Action Planas part of Comprehensive Planning FY 2012 and FY 2013 CIP Approved Budget Water Facilities Master Plan Climate Action Plan Water Facilities Master Plan Program EIR Conducting all 3 studies provides the Board: Comprehensive information to set long term direction Full and thorough evaluation of long-term facility needs and associated environmental impacts Comprehensive planning approach is cost effective 4
- 5. Workshop Agenda Introductionof speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current climate change regulations Water Authority’s planning for climate change Next steps 5
- 6. Climate Change: concernsabout increased dryness in Southern California Dan Cayan Climate Atmospheric and Physical Oceanography Research Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego Sponsors: San Diego Foundation California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program 6 6
- 7. Great year-to-year variabilityin San Diego precipitation Ranges from ~33% to 280% of average 7
- 8. and, when SouthernCalifornia is dry-- Northern California is often dry and the Colorado River drainage is sometimes dry 8
- 9. average summer afternoon temperature 9
- 10. average summer afternoon temperature GFDL A2 1km downscaled to 1km Hugo Hidalgo Tapash Das Mike Dettinger 10
- 11. Projected Climate Warmingthrough the 21st Century • because of greenhouse gas build-up we are committed and are already warming • amount of warming in future decades depends on greenhouse gas emissions 11
- 12. California’s Sierra Nevadasnowpack How long will it remain? Sponsors: California Energy Commission, California DWR NOAA RISA program US Geological Survey Douglas Alden US Department of Energy Scripps Institution of Oceanography Installing met station, Lee Vining, CA 12 12
- 13. Substantial Decline ofCalifornia Spring SnowPack from Projected Climate Warming high or even higher losses by end of 21st Century depending on how much warming David Pierce/Dan Cayan Dec 2012 to appear in California Water Plan Updat See also Pierce and Cayan 2013 J Climate 13
- 14. Projected patterns ofprecipitation changes 2090-2099 versus 1980-1999 Globally, dry regions become drier including the Southwest United States! 14
- 15. San Diego CountyHydrological Modeling Framework Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) A SIO/SDCWA Project sponsored by SD Foundation and CNAP RISA Hillslope Routing Runoff (HRR) Streamflow (cfs) 2,000 0 G M2 15
- 16. Summary California has adry, volatile climate. Southern California’s water supply vulnerable to climate changes and weather extremes. Warming is already underway and more to come +2ºF by 2050. Model projections suggest warming may be intensified in summer, especially in interior areas. Recent IPCC climate model projections for California precipitation are scattered, but several show significant drying. Hydrological model simulations indicate these drying trends, if they were to occur, would be more accentuated in runoff and soil moisture. Frank Gehrke, 16 California Cooperative Snow Surveys, DWR 16 16
- 17. Workshop Agenda Introductionof speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current climate change regulations Water Authority’s planning for climate change Next steps 17
- 18. State Regulatory Context •Executive Order S-3-05 • Identifies Climate Change as an issue California needs to address • 2000 emissions levels by 2010 • 1990 levels by 2020 • 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (from IPCC) • Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) • Requires GHG emission reductions • 1990 levels by 2020 • CEQA Guidelines Revisions (SB 97) • Requires analysis of GHG emissions • Required to make CEQA determination on GHG emissions • Comprehensive approach or project-by-project basis 18
- 19. AB 32 ComplianceGuidance AB 32 states that emissions in 2020 shall be reduced to 1990 levels However, few agencies have accurate data from 1990 CARB has determined that a 15% reduction from baseline levels (e.g., 2005-2010) can be used to comply with AB 32 19
- 20. State & FederalGHG Reduction Measures SB 375 Per-capita GHG reductions from passenger vehicles (7% by 2020; 13% by 2035) SB X 1-2 California utilities must provide at least 33% of their electricity from renewable resources by 2020 EO S-1-07 Requires a reduction in the carbon intensity of California transportation fuels of at least 10% by 2020. AB 1493 and CAFE Vehicle emissions standards for 2016 and 2025 Cap & Trade Requires participation of large emission generators and creates a market-based system with an overall emissions limit for affected sectors 20
- 21. What is LegallyRequired of the Water Authority? Cannot hinder State from achieving 2020 goals Individual projects must undergo CEQA review CAP streamlines CEQA analysis for GHG emissions on future projects Water Authority has chosen to prepare a Climate Action Plan (Section 15183.5) 21
- 22. Workshop Agenda Introductionof speakers Purpose of Climate Action Plan Briefing on local climate studies Current climate change regulations Water Authority’s planning for climate change Next steps 22
- 23. San Diego CountyWater Authority Response to Climate Change Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation Collaborate with entities on understanding Reduce Reduce Reduce supply greenhouse climate change vulnerability to vulnerability to impacts and climate change gas emissions climate change to comply with ways to impacts impacts mitigate and AB 32 / CEQA adapt 23
- 24. San Diego CountyWater Authority Response to Climate Change Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation Collaborate with entities on Reduce understanding Reduce supply greenhouse climate change vulnerability to gas emissions impacts and climate change to comply with ways to impacts AB 32 / CEQA mitigate and adapt 24
- 25. Examples of Partnershipsin Research Scripps Institution of Oceanography/ San Diego Foundation Currently collaborating to identify impacts to local reservoir yield due to climate change Vista Irrigation District Water Utility Climate Alliance Lake Henshaw Ten utilities that collaborate on climate change issues affecting drinking water California Urban Water Agencies Ten major urban water agencies responsible for about two-thirds of California’s drinking water supply www.wucaonline.org 25
- 26. San Diego CountyWater Authority Response to Climate Change Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation Collaborate with entities on Reduce understanding Reduce supply greenhouse climate change vulnerability to gas emissions impacts and climate change to comply with ways to impacts AB 32 / CEQA mitigate and adapt 26
- 27. Climate Change ResponseIncorporated throughout SDCWA Activities Regional Supply Planning Facility Master Planning Environmental Planning (Climate Action Plan) Water Authority Solar Panels Capital Improvement Program Operations San Vicente Dam Raise 27
- 28. Regional Supply Planning Climate Adaptation Process Understanding Understanding climate science and climate model projections Assess Assess water system vulnerabilities to potential climate changes Plan Incorporate climate change into water utility planning Implement Implement adaptation strategies 28
- 29. Assessing Vulnerability toClimate Change (Example) Area of Concern • Changes in rainfall and runoff patterns Potential Impact on Water Resources • Reduced reservoir yield • Increased frequency and intensity of droughts Primary Supplies Affected • Imported • Local Groundwater and Surface Waters 29
- 30. SDCWA 2010 UrbanWater Management Plan Incorporating Uncertainty into Supply Planning 1. Analyzed climate change impact on water demands 2. Conducted traditional scenario planning process Identify “no regret” strategies to manage uncertainties and adapt to climate change Supply Uncertainties Project SWP Reliability Climate Change Development Risks Recurring Droughts Growth 30
- 31. Analysis of ClimateChange Impacts on Demand SIO provided downscaled temperature and precipitation projections for the San Diego region Substituted downscaled weather data into demand model Average Results from Alternative Analysis resulted in slight Climate Scenarios increase in demand over Sector Difference from 2035 UWMP planning horizon Baseline Demand (2035) Overall +1.2% Appears that any significant Single Family +1.9% increase in water demand Multifamily +0.2% will occur beyond 2035 Non-Residential +0.4% Agricultural +3.3% 31
- 32. SDCWA 2010 UWMP– Major Steps in Scenario Planning Process Projected Uncertainty Potential Key Tracking Resources Scenarios Strategies Metrics Mix • Based on • Programs and • Metrics to track • Develop in critical Projects implementation coordination uncertainties • Manage of resource mix with member • Risk uncertainties and need for agencies assessment of • Fill potential additional resources mix “supply gap” strategies • Identify “supply gap” 32
- 33. Implement Resource Strategiesto Manage Uncertainties and Adapt to Climate Change Diversify sources of supply Develop local projects not vulnerable to climate change Promote conservation Increase storage capacity to capture variable runoff San Vicente Dam Raise Water Efficient Plantings Water Recycling 33
- 34. San Diego CountyWater Authority Response to Climate Change Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation Collaborate with entities on Reduce understanding Reduce supply greenhouse climate change vulnerability to gas emissions impacts and climate change to comply with ways to impacts AB 32 / CEQA mitigate and adapt 34
- 35. San Diego CountyWater Authority Mitigation Strategies The Climate Action Plan will be developed in conjunction with the 2013 Master Plan Update Purpose: To proactively address the issue of climate change as it relates to activities within the Water Authority The Water Authority is taking action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions Master Plan Climate Action Plan Identify future facilities needed Will add new facilities to and associated emissions baseline emissions 35
- 36. CAP Meets LegalRequirements Required for developing a “qualified greenhouse gas reduction plan” under CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5 Baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory Estimate of future emissions based on anticipated growth (Master Plan projects and operations) Defines GHG reduction targets Strategies that are feasible and meet reduction targets Monitoring program and flexibility to revise assumptions and estimates as new/better data becomes available In order to qualify as a GHG reduction plan, specific requirements for compliance 36
- 37. Benefits of ComprehensivePlanning Climate Action Plan (CAP): • CEQA streamlining for future projects • Can look at the “big” picture through comprehensive analysis of cumulative impacts • Provides broad list of mitigation measures • Possible cost savings through energy efficiency and water conservation • Contributes to regional sustainability goals • Demonstrates leadership within the community 37
- 38. Water Authority’s ClimateAction Plan • Inventory GHG sources (facilities, buildings, fleet) • Estimate emission changes over time, including new facilities from Master Plan • Establish required targets for compliance • Identify mitigation actions to reduce GHGs • Document GHG reduction measures on feasibility, cost and implementation • Allow for periodic updates 38
- 39. CAP Development • ClimateAction Plan will comply with all mandated GHG reduction target requirements and timelines set forth in AB 32 and CEQA • 1990 levels by 2020 (15% reduction from baseline) • Uncertainty regarding regulatory requirements beyond 2020 • CAP will be updated every 5 years, concurrent with Master Plan and UWMP • Address changes in future updates 39
- 40. Summary of OngoingActivities SDCWA Response to Climate Change Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation Scripps Institution Implement resource of Oceanography strategies to manage supply Complete 2013 The San Diego uncertainties Climate Action Plan Foundation and implement cost-effective Water Utility Climate Update plans with mitigation actions Alliance latest research on to reduce GHG impacts and emissions California Urban adaptation Water Agencies (2015 UWMP) 40
- 41. Timeline of NextSteps Jan. 10, 2013 Jan. 24, 2012 Feb. 28, 2013 • Special Water Planning • Water Planning • Water Planning Committee: Workshop on Committee: Information Committee: Information Climate Change item on status of Master item on status of Master Plan and related activities Plan and related activities Feb. 2013 Mar. 14, 2013 Mar. 2013 • Member Agency TAC mtg. • Special Water Planning • Member Agency TAC • Issue Notice of Committee: Workshop on meeting Preparation (NOP) to Master Plan begin CEQA process Mar./Apr. 2013 Jul. to Sep. 2013 Nov. 2013 • Water Planning Release of Draft Program Water Planning Committee: Selection of EIR, CAP and draft Master Committee: Final Master Plan preferred Plan for 45-day review and Program EIR certification alternative & CAP comment period and approval of Master approach Plan and CAP 41