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Kashmir Policy Briefing
The document is a briefing for the U.S. House of Representatives on the ongoing Kashmir insurgency, highlighting the significant human toll and the complex geopolitical tensions involving India, Pakistan, and China. It outlines various scenarios for Kashmir's future, including potential independence, joining Pakistan or India, and the implications for regional stability. Recommendations for U.S. policy include pressuring Pakistan on terrorism, maintaining a commitment to anti-terrorism in India, and engaging with non-militant Kashmiri political groups.
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Kashmir Policy Briefing
- 1. THE KASHMIR INSURGENCY Briefing forthe U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Human Rights
- 7. Photo by BhishamPratap Prada. Used under Creative Commons license.
- 9. Flashpoint Estimated Toll of“Limited” Nuclear War Killed Severely Injured INDIA Bangalore 315000 175000 Bombay 478000 229000 Calcutta 357000 198000 Madras 364000 196000 New Delhi 177000 94000 India Total 1.7 m 0.9m Faisalabad 336000 174000 Islamabad 154000 67000 Karachi 240000 127000 Lahore 258000 150000 Rawalpindi 184000 97000 1.2m 0.6 m 2.9 m 1.5 m PAKISTAN Pakistan Total TOTAL
- 10. U.S. Interests 1. 2. Avoidance ofa nuclear exchange in South Asia Use of Kashmir by Islamic extremists • • 1. to distract Pakistan from Al-Qaida As a training and recruiting ground Violations by both Islamic militants and Indian security forces of: • • • Human rights Democratic process The right of self-determination
- 11. 86,000 square miles 56,000 controlled by India 30,000 controlledby Pakistan Bordered by Pakistan, Afghanistan and China
- 12. Demography Indian-administered Kashmir 10.1 million REGION Buddhist Hindu Muslim Kashmir Valley 4% 95% Jammu 66% 30% - 46% Ladakh 50% Pakistan-administeredKashmir Population unknown REGION Buddhist Hindu Muslim North Areas 99% Azad Kashmir 99%
- 13. 1846. Jammu andKashmir created 1947. Partition and “Document of Accession” 1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution. 1962. Sino-Indian War 1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War 1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of Control” 1980. Kashmiri insurgency 1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons 1999. Kargill Conflict 2001. Terrorist attack on Indian parliament
- 14. 1846. Jammu andKashmir created 1947. Partition and “Document of Accession” 1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution. 1962. Sino-Indian War 1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War 1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of Control” 1980. Kashmiri insurgency 1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons 1999. Kargill Conflict 2001. Terrorist attack on Indian parliament
- 15. 1846. Jammu andKashmir created 1947. Partition and “Document of Accession” 1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution. 1962. Sino-Indian War 1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War 1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of Control” 1980. Kashmiri insurgency 1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons 1999. Kargill Conflict 2001. Terrorist attack on Indian parliament
- 16. 1846. Jammu andKashmir created 1947. Partition and “Document of Accession” 1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution. 1962. Sino-Indian War 1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War 1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of Control” 1980. Kashmiri insurgency 1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons 1999. Kargill Conflict 2001. Terrorist attack on Indian parliament
- 17. 1846. Jammu andKashmir created 1947. Partition and “Document of Accession” 1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution. 1962. Sino-Indian War 1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War 1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of Control” 1980. Kashmiri insurgency 1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons 1999. Kargill Conflict 2001. Terrorist attack on Indian parliament
- 18. 1846. Jammu andKashmir created 1947. Partition and “Document of Accession” 1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution. 1962. Sino-Indian War 1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War 1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of Control” 1980. Kashmiri insurgency 1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons 1999. Kargill Conflict 2001. Terrorist attack on Indian parliament
- 19. PLAYERS 1. India 2. Pakistan 3.China 4. Kashmiri groups
- 20. Pakistan’s Role Pakistan doesnot recognize the legitimacy of Kashmir’s accession to India. Anti-India terrorist groups continue to operate from within Pakistan Although in 2001 Pakistan rejected insurgency, it is believed to have offered support and training for several uprisings.
- 21. Kashmiri Separatist Organizations MainArmed Militant Groups Hizbul Mujahideen Pro-Pak/Islamic vision of Kashmir Lashkar e-Taiba Ahle Hadith/wants Pan-Islamic state Jaish e-Muhammad Deobandi/wants Pan-Islamic state Harkat ul-Mujahideen Deobandi/wants Pan-Islamic state J&K Liberation Front Kashmiriyat Political Umbrella Groups All Parties Hurriyat Conf. Some pro-Pakistan, some Kashmiriyat Muttahida Jihad Council Supports pro-Pakistan militants Main Kashmiri Parties J&K People’s Conference Kashmiriyat J&K Liberation Front Kashmiriyat Jamaat e-Islami (K) Some pro-Pakistan, some Kashmiriyat Jamaat e-Islami (P) Pro-Pakistan
- 22. India’s Role Political Position 1.Jammu and Kashmir are integral parts of India 2. State would have been settled long ago but for Pakistan’s “terrorist proxy war.” Handling of Insurgency 1. Massive security force in Kashmir 2. Entice moderate political leaders to participate in state government 3. Prevent conflict from requiring international intervention No International Mediation is Permissible 1. Risk of neo-Colonialism 2. Foreign nations do not have India’s interests at heart 3. Violation of national sovereignty
- 23. Policy Principles 1. Eachstakeholder must be able to claim some benefit from the settlement 2. The insurgency must be recognized as a key player in the region. 3. Human rights, democratic process and the right to selfdetermination must be respected.
- 24. Scenario One: Formalize StatusQuo • Confirms Simla Agreement • India has supported • Rejected by Pakistan • Rejected by Independence Movement
- 25. Scenario Two: Kashmir JoinsPakistan • Supported by Pakistan • Rejected by India • Ignores Kashmiriyat independence movement(s) • Buddhist and Hindu populations forced into Pakistani citizenship
- 26. Scenario 3: Kashmir JoinsIndia • Supported by India • Rejected by Pakistan • Ignores Kashmiriyat independence movements • Muslims of Azad regions forced into Indian citizenship
- 27. Scenario 4: Independent Kashmir •Rejected by Pakistan • Rejected by India • Opposed by many Buddhist and Hindu Kashmiris • Supported by many independent “Kashmiriyat” groups • Raises international concerns over • regional “Balkanization” • Economic instability
- 28.
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- 30. Advantages • Leaves Pakistanand India in control of Chinese borders • Creates an independent Kashmir • Leaves Pakistan in control of some Muslim regions • Leaves India in control of Hindu and Buddhist regions • Allows tourism from both states • Encourages investment by both states • Reduction of insurgent pressures
- 31. Disadvantages • Loss ofcontrol of some land by both Pakistan and India. • Reduces Indian control of potential terrorist threat.
- 32. Policy Recommendations Members ofthe U.S. House should: 1.Pressure Pakistan on terrorism 2.Continue visits to Kashmir 3.Emphasize U.S. anti-terrorism commitment to India 4.Open dialogue with non-militant Kashmiri political groups
- 33.