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L03 Exponential World
The document discusses the exponential growth of technology from the 19th century to the present, highlighting key innovations and the impact of Moore's Law on computing advancements. It contrasts linear views of technological development with the reality of exponential change, emphasizing that technological evolution accelerates over time. The text raises questions about the implications of such rapid progress, including disruptions to traditional industries and the dual nature of technology as a source of both opportunity and challenge.
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L03 Exponential World
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- 4. Local and Linear— 90% worked in agriculture in 1800
- 5. Local and Linear— Hard work but machines are slowly used
- 6. Londin 1899 —Rate of innovation is growing
- 7. “Everything that canbe invented has been invented” - Purportedly said by Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899
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- 10. Alternating Current PowerPlant at World's Fair, Chicago, 1893.
- 11. TECHNOLOGY AT THEDAWN OF THE 20TH CENTURY
- 12. Turn of theCentury
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- 15. Now explain tosomeone technology today
- 16. TECHNOLOGY AT THEDAWN OF THE 21ST CENTURY
- 17. OUR VIEW ON TECHNOLOGY ISVERY CONTEMPORARY
- 18. Any sufficiently advancedtechnology is indistinguishable from magic - Arthur C. Clark’s 3rd Law
- 19. 1999 What was theatmosphere in Hope?
- 22. Is time travellingpossible?
- 25. Century of Scienceand Technology Radio Messages Airplanes Ice lolly Ford model T Talking pictures Zipper Stainless steel Tanks Penicillin FM Radio Computers Nuclear fission Ballistic missile Transistor Atom bomb Solar battery PC Integrated circuit Video game consoles GUIs TV ARPANET Laser Altair CD-ROM Mosaic DVD WWW Internet VCR Digital cameras Satellites Mircochip
- 26. “He was thepre-eminent scientist in a century dominated by science. The touchstones of the era — the Bomb, the Big Bang, quantum physics and electronics — all bear his imprint.”
- 27. special theory ofrelativity model of the atom discovery of the electron theory of continental drift nuclear chain reaction discovery of the positron, neutron big bang theory quantum theory uncertainty principle
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- 31. IBM System/360 360/20 with24K of memory Computers in 1964
- 32. The Digital Revolution Transistor,1947 Vacuum tube, 1904
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- 34. Transistor, 1947 Integrated circuit,1959 Intel 4004, 1971 Vacuum tube, 1904 The Digital Revolution
- 35. Gordon Moore published anarticle in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits” Cramming Components
- 36. Number of transistorson an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 37. Number of transistorson an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 39. If product performancedouble every year: Moore’s Law In 10 years we have 1,000 fold increase in performance In 30 years we have 1,000,000,000 fold increase in performance
- 40. 30 linear steps 30meters 30 exponential steps 27 x Globe
- 41. Is Moore’s Lawover?
- 43. The “Colossus” boasts1216 processors on a chip the size of a postage stamp
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- 48. The Fifth Paradigm Whenone paradigm cannot increase performance any more, new ways are found
- 49. 1977 Apple II $1,298 4000bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz 2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz 30 years of product improvements
- 50. Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4 Cray 2 1985Apple iPad 2 2011 30 years of product improvements
- 51. Slow growth inthe beginning than accelerates Which means we overestimate short term potential and underestimate long term potential Exponential Growth
- 52. Flickr picture by spwelton The Second halfof the Chess Board
- 53. The Legend ofthe Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
- 55. The total amountof rice required to fill a 64-squared chess board is (2^ (64) - 1), which is equal to 18446744073709551615 grains 460 billion tons
- 56. Number of transistorson an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
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- 58. COMPUTERS WILL BEFASTER
- 59. COMPUTERS WILL BESMALLER
- 60. COMPUTERS WILL BECHEAPER
- 61. THINGS THAT ONCEWHERE IMPOSSIBLE BECOME POSSIBLE
- 64. From a 1946Comic strip to CES 2009
- 66. And from 2009to 2014
- 68. ANY NEW TECHNOLOGY THATCOMES TO THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD
- 69. Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/ id2008012_297369.htm Bill Buxton’s Longnose of Innovation The Long Nose of Innovation
- 70. Growth of Technology Evolutionaryprocesses – both biology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e
- 71. Ray Kurzweil onhow technology will transform us (from TED.com)
- 73. Plans usually assumelinear growth Design product with technology of the future in mind Techology Predictions are usually right, just wrong in time Most products fail becase all the enabling factors are not in place when needed
- 74. The Law ofAccelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
- 75. “An analysis ofthe history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil
- 81. Disruption Working in anexponential industry with a liner view is deadly People in many 20th century traditional businesses got used to linear mindset and are now being challenged by new entrants using exponential digital technologies…
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- 84. Finance Healthcare Retail TransportationEducation ? Any industry
- 85. Disruptive stress or opportunity Growthof technology Our view of the world
- 86. Disruptive Stress Technology iscausing problems Established companies are threatened Business models become irrelevant Laws become useless
- 87. Disruptive Opportunity Never beforein history has so much opportunity been available to so many people
- 88. Is this evolutionof technology good?
- 89. Technology is neither goodnor bad; nor is it neutral Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology
- 90.