Lecture 4 Teaching Futures, Systems and Strategic Thinking 2016

Teaching Futures, Systems and
Strategic Thinking
Technologies Education

Systems Thinking
Computational Thinking
Design Thinking
Futures Thinking
Strategic Thinking
Solutions Thinking

• conceptualise more just and sustainable human and
planetary futures.
• develop knowledge and skills in exploring probable
and preferred futures.
• understand the dynamics and influence that human,
social and ecological systems have on alternative
futures.
• conscientise responsibility and action on the part of
students toward creating better futures.
Why study the future

Technological Evolution
Tool Age
Machine Age
Automation Age

Technological Evolution
Neolithic Revolution
Stone, Bronze, Iron Ages
Ancient Greek, Roman, Chinese technology
Medieval technology
Renaissance technology
Industrial Revolution
Atomic Age
Space Age
Digital Revolution
Information Age

Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic
Arthur C Clarke

Linear model of innovation
Invention
Innovation
Diffusion

It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has
exceeded our humanity
Albert Einstein

Once a new technology rolls over you, if you’re not part of the
steamroller, you’re part of the road
Stewart Brand

We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and
technology and yet have cleverly arranged things so that
almost no one understands science and technology. That’s a
clear prescription for disaster
Carl Sagan

Systems Thinking makes it possible to analyse
and understand complex phenomena
Systems Thinking

Instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the
system being studied, systems thinking works by
expanding its view to consider larger and larger
numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied
Systems Thinking

Thinking consists of two activities: constructing mental
models and then simulating them in order to draw
conclusions and make decisions
Barry Richmond

Understanding the concept of a tree requires more
information than is available through sensory experience
alone. It’s built on past experiences and knowledge.

The image of the world around us, which we carry in our
head, is just a model. Nobody in his head imagines all the
world… they have only selected concepts, and relationships
between them, and uses those to represent the real system
Jay Forrester

The problems we have created in the world today will not be
solved by the level of thinking that created them
Albert Einstein

We are limited in our capacity to form and reform mental
models. Systems modelling allows us to move from “what” to
“what if” and make our thinking visible
The basic building blocks of dynamic models are stocks, flows,
and loops

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful
George Box

A supermarket can be seen as any of the following kinds of
systems, depending on the perspective:
a "profit making system" … from the perspective of management and owners
a "distribution system“… from the perspective of the suppliers
an "employment system“… from the perspective of employees
a "materials supply system“… from the perspective of customers
an "entertainment system“… from the perspective of loiterers
a "social system" …from the perspective of local residents
a "dating system" …from the perspective of single customers

Students need learn to identify the properties of the
various subsystems they explore, for example of a bicycle,
and examine how they relate to the whole.
Children tend to think of the properties of a system as
belonging to individual parts of it rather than as arising
from the interaction of the parts. A system property that
arises from interaction of parts is therefore a difficult idea.

Students should already know that if something consists
of many parts, the parts usually influence one another.
Also they should be aware that something may not work as
well (or at all) if a part of it is missing, broken, worn out,
mismatched, or misconnected.

Students can learn about the
choices and constraints that
go into the design of a
bicycle system. Depending
on whether the bicycle is
intended for racing,
mountain roads, or touring,
influences its design and
such choices as the type of
tires, frame and materials,
and drives and gears.

In addition, accommodating one constraint can often lead
to conflict with others. For example, the lightest material
may not be the strongest, or the most efficient shape may
not be the safest or the most aesthetically pleasing.
Therefore, every design problem lends itself to many
alternative solutions, depending on what values people
place on the various constraints.

Subsystems could include:
The Wheel
Drivers & Gears
Frames & Materials
Brakes & Steering
Aerodynamics
Power System

Speed Safety Comfort Durability Endurance
The Wheels
Drivers and
Gears
Frames and
Materials
Brakes and
Steering
Aerodynamics
Power System

Parts Function Inputs Outputs Boundaries
The Wheels
Drivers and
Gears
Frames and
Materials
Brakes and
Steering
Aerodynamics
Power System

Wheel & Axle (subsystem)
The wheel & axle
transfer energy from
rubber band to the surface
to move the car.
Rubber band (energy)
Elastic potential energy will
be transferred to the wheel
and axle subsystem
Energy Conservation
Most of the energy results in
motion.Some energy is
transformed into heat through
friction with the surface
Boundaries:
The Surface
The Person
My hand (input)
A person provides the
energy that is stored in the
stretched rubber band.
Motion (output)
The car moves as a
result of the energy that
is put into the system.
A Physical System
Energy Transfer
(Big Idea context)
A Rubber Band
Car System

Part
Function of the part
Part
Part
Predict: What if a part is
missing?
Function of the whole
system
Other systems with a part
like this
Name all the parts
Parts & Wholes
Function of the Part
Predict
F-2
Whole System
What form of energy makes this system work?

Subsystem
Function
Subsystem
Function
Predict the effect of a
broken subsystem (part)
Inputs
Changes in input
Outputs
What the whole system
can do
Subsystems
Inputs & Outputs
Functions & Predictions
3-4
Whole System
Describe how the output will change if we change the input

Subsystem
Subsystem
Energy Output
Receiving System
Matter Input
Predict Changes
Matter Output
Receiving System
Energy Input
Inputs & Outputs
Boundaries & Flow
Open & Closed Systems
5-6
Whole System
Give an example of how a change in a subsystem influences the entire system
Is this system closed or open? Explain.
Boundaries of the system

Whole System
Subsystems
Negative Feedback?
Inflow compared to
outflow
Feedback from output
Positive Feedback?
Interaction with another
system
Is the system in
equilibrium or is it
changing?
Positive Feedback
Negative Feedback
Equilibrium
7-8
How are models of this system used to make predictions?
What are the limitations of the model in accurately making predictions?

As you are reading, look for key words such as:
change transform revolution becoming more rose went up increased
got higher grew/growth gained less fell went down decreased went
lower declined lost
Write down one or more quotes in each box. Circle key words of change
and underline what you think is changing. Draw a line graph of how the
quote shows change over time. Explain why the change occurs.
Identifying Change Over Time in Text
Quotes from book Change over time
Why this might be
occurring

Identifying Change Over Time in Text

What important elements have changed over time?
How has __________ changed over time?
During what period of time have the changes occurred?
Where on the y-axis should the graph start and why?
How would you label the bottom/middle/top of the y-axis?
What evidence supports the graph being created?
Questions to ask when analysing a system that changes over time:
What caused any changes in direction or slope?
How are interpretations of a graphed element the same or different?
What changes may happen in the future based on what has been
happening?
Do you see any connections (interdependencies or causal
relationships) between/among graphs?
Questions to consider once BOTGs have been created:

Stocks are the foundation of any system and are the elements that
you can see, feel, count, or measure
Stocks do not have to be physical
Stocks

Stock changes over time
Increasing
Decreasing
Oscillating
Stable

Stocks change over time through the actions of a flow
A stock is the present memory of the changing flows within a system
Flow

A feedback loop is formed when changes in a stock affect the flows
into or out of that same stock
Balancing feedback loops are stability seeking and try to keep a
stock at a certain level or within a certain range
Reinforcing feedback loops occur when a system element has the
ability to reproduce itself or grow at a constant fraction of itself
Loops

What is a stock related to the horse in a horse race?
What is a flow related to the horse in a horse race?
What is the relationships between the two?

Stock represents an amount, e.g. distance travelled
Flow represents a rate, e.g. distance/second
They are related because they both relate to distance

What is a stock related to a freeway?
What is a flow related to freeway?

Stocks generally are described by nouns
Flow generally is described by verbs
Number of cars (noun); Entering/leaving freeway (verbs)

Stock Flow
How are they alike?
How are they different?

Piggy Bank
Game 1
Rule:
Put 2 “coins” in, take 1 “coin” out
Directions:
1. Write the rule at the top of the graph for Game 1.
2. Graph the number of “coins” in the piggy before you begin.
3. Write your prediction.
4. Round 1: Using the piggy handout, put 2 “coins” in, and then take 1 out.
5. Graph the number of “coins” left in the piggy on the line for round 1.
6. Round 2: Add two more “coins”, then take 1 away, graph... continue doing so for 3
more rounds; record the number of “coins” left at the end.
7. Was your prediction correct? Why or why not?

Piggy Bank
Game 2
Make a new rule to save more
money than in the first game but
that can still be seen on the graph.
Game 3
Make a new rule with money going
in and out that shows how money
can decrease (go down) over time.

Symbols
A converter holds
information or
relationships that
affect the rate of
the flows, or that
affect the content
of another
converter
A connector
indicates that
changes in one
element cause
changes in another
element; only
changes a stock by
going through an
accompanying
flow
A flow represents actions or
processes; transports “stuff”,
concrete or abstract, that
directly adds to or takes away
from accumulation in a stock;
the verbs in the system
A stock represents
an accumulation,
concrete or
abstract, that
increases or
decreases over
time; the nouns in
the system

World Population
Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback

Avalanche

Epidemics

Rumours

Fads

Interest Rates

Confidence
Decreasing or collapsing Reinforcing Feedback

Soil Fertility
Decreasing or collapsing Reinforcing Feedback

Predator / Prey
Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback

Exercise

Supply and Demand

Fire Management

Cruise Control

Connecting Loops
Central B indicates a Balancing loop, R a Reinforcing loop
Central + or - indicates positive (growth or decline) or negative
(oscillating or seeking) loops
Arrowed signs indicate the direction of causality + (adds to or
changes it in same direction or - (takes from or change direction)
o reverses direction or subtracts, s same direction or adds to it

Friendships
Reinforcing Causal Loops

Literature
Balancing Causal Loops

Food and Fibre Production
Both Types of Causal Loops

Slavery
Reinforcing Causal Loops 0:34

Types of loops
Reinforcing Feedback

Types of loops
Body Temperature

Types of loops
Balancing Feedback

Types of loops
An odd number
of negative (-)
connections
indicates a
balancing loop.
An even number
of negative (-)
connections
indicates a
reinforcing loop.

Air Pollution
respiratory disease
air pollution (CO2)
coal burned
economic development
factories
cancer
death rate
coal production
coal dust
power stations
environmental regulation
pollution outsourcing to China
standard of living
cars
natural resources
Audio article and transcript

Air Pollution
Stock/Flow Map
Connection Circle
finding feedback loops

Systems Thinking
Stocks
Flows
Causal Loops
Flow Maps
Connection Circles
Simulations

Thinking as a leader,
manager and
entrepreneur

Applying for business
loans and managing
project budgets

Determine if their solutions
are profitable and
sustainable

Managing differences and
conflicts

Understanding the benefits
of diverse viewpoints

Opportunities to bring in
outside help and outsource

Griffith University
Dr Jason Zagami
www.zagami.info

Lecture 4 Teaching Futures, Systems and Strategic Thinking 2016

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Lecture 4 Teaching Futures, Systems and Strategic Thinking 2016