Download to read offline
![Human Augmentation: AI-Brain Interface
as a “Neural Lace”
The
World
Artificial
Intelligence
Human
Brain
“Neural lace:” a mesh of
electronics [and photonics] that
will allow AI and the brain to
work together. – Elon Musk
This could help human brains
keep up with future
enhancements in AI.
https://www.neuralink.com/ is hiring now](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ronsgroup-210303164211/75/Managing-Future-Impacts-of-Artificial-Narrow-General-and-Super-Intelligence-Implications-for-Work-and-Global-Governance-18-2048.jpg)
Uploaded byJerome Glenn
Managing Future Impacts of Artificial Narrow, General, and Super Intelligence: Implications for Work and Global Governance
The document discusses the future impacts of various forms of artificial intelligence (AI) on work and global governance, highlighting increasing wealth concentration and structural unemployment. It outlines a three-year global study proposing actions to address potential challenges posed by AI advancements, including governance models for transitioning from artificial narrow intelligence to artificial general intelligence. Various future scenarios are presented, emphasizing the need for collaborative strategies and proactive governance to mitigate the risks and harness the benefits of AI technology.
More Related Content
Similar to Managing Future Impacts of Artificial Narrow, General, and Super Intelligence: Implications for Work and Global Governance
![AI and the Future of Work [TUG-CO, 11/15/23]](https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/aiandthefutureofworktug-conov152023-231116175445-e711e59c-thumbnail.jpg?width=640&height=640&fit=bounds)
Managing Future Impacts of Artificial Narrow, General, and Super Intelligence: Implications for Work and Global Governance
- 1. Managing Future Impactsof Artificial Narrow, General, and Super Intelligence Implications for Work and Global Governance Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project
- 2. Increasing power anduniversality of A.I. can worsen the economics for the majority • Concentration of wealth is increasing • Income gaps are widening • Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm • Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually better than labor • Future technologies can replace much of human labor • Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as usual” or “surprise free” trend forecast • What can we do about this?
- 3. Future Work/Technology 2050Study 1. Literature and Related Research Review 2. Real-Time Delphi on questions not asked or poorly answered 3. Three Global Scenario Drafts to 2050 4. Three Separate RTDelphi’s for Feedback on each Scenario 5. Final Scenarios, given for Millennium Project Nodes 6. National Workshops to Explore Long-range Strategies 7. Collect suggestions from the national planning workshops, distilled in to 93 actions, assess all via five (5) Real-Time Delphi's 8. Final Report for Public Discussion
- 4. A Three-Year GlobalStudy on what to do about Potential Futures for Work and Technology Jerome C. Glenn, CEO The Millennium Project
- 5. Three Forms ofArtificial Intelligence Artificial Narrow Intelligence Artificial General Intelligence Artificial Super Intelligence
- 6. All these areartificial narrow intelligence Source and Read short overviews
- 7. Artificial Narrow Intelligence(ANI) is often better and faster than humans at: • Lip reading (LipNet; Deep Mind) • Flying planes, driving trucks • Mathematics • Live voice translation (Microsoft) • Playing games (Chess: Deep Blue, Jeopardy & Go: Alpha Go) • Face recognition • Medical diagnosis (IBM Watson - Cancer) • Reading comprehension speed (Microsoft and Alibaba) • Legal analysis (LawGeex) • Income tax preparation (TurbTax) • Organizing shipping (Amazon) • Specific research (Google; Alexa) • Traffic navigation (Google Maps) • And AI/robots for repetitive tasks and large scale data analysis
- 8. Autonomous Nervous System &Civilization Just as the autonomous nervous system runs much of our body, freeing the mind to be creative; AI and other Next Technologies (NT) will run much of the physical infrastructure of future civilization freeing more of humanity to be creative.
- 9.
- 10.
- 11. Artificial Super Intelligencesets its own goals independent of human awareness and understanding
- 12. Artificial Super Intelligence “Thedevelopment of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race...it would take off on its own and re- design itself at an ever-increasing rate. Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete and would be superseded.” Stephen Hawking
- 13. Technological Unemployment • ArtificialNarrow Intelligence will make predictable unemployment like truck drivers • Artificial General Intelligence – if it occurs – will make far more unemployment in many areas less predictable • AGI may arrive as soon as 2030 to 2050 • This could lead to massive unemployment if we do not begin to prepare • Hugh? Didn’t every new age create more jobs than replaced?
- 14. Each economic transitioncreated more jobs than those lost Why is it different this time? 1. the acceleration of technological change 2. the globalization, interactions, and synergies among NTs 3. the existence of a global platform—the Internet—for simultaneous technology transfer … with far fewer errors in the transfer than in the past 4. standardization of data bases and protocols 5. few plateaus or pauses of change allowing time for individuals and cultures to adjust to the changes 6. billions of empowered people in relatively democratic free markets able to initiate activities 7. machines can learn how you do what you do, and then do it better than you.
- 15. Work/Tech Global Scenarios2050 1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag 2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair 3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy Each scenario is about 10 pages of detailed cause & effect sequences that illustrate decisions
- 16. IoT AI ContactLens – always in Virtual and Augmented Reality connected to the world Hands-free, phone-free, laptop-free, AI-Human symbiosis
- 17. The next Smartphone? Mojo Vision has $125 million invested Connect the smart city to your eye to guild mobility, avoid traffic, remind you of appointments, events, and people. 14,000 pixels per square inch.
- 18. Human Augmentation: AI-BrainInterface as a “Neural Lace” The World Artificial Intelligence Human Brain “Neural lace:” a mesh of electronics [and photonics] that will allow AI and the brain to work together. – Elon Musk This could help human brains keep up with future enhancements in AI. https://www.neuralink.com/ is hiring now
- 19. Your Personal AIAvatar searches the web while you sleep… … then wakes you up in the morning ….with all kinds of interesting things to do, some for income, some because the are just fun, and some that are both all with smart contacts if needed.
- 20. What is possible…will change Moore’s Law & Nielsen's Law + Artificial Intelligence acceleration to AGI + Computational science + Synergies among NT These four together will change what we think is possible.
- 21. ANI – AGIGlobal Governance It is argued that creating rules for governance of AI too soon will stifle its development. Some AGI experts believe it is possible to have AGI as soon as ten years. Since it is likely to take ten or more years to • develop ANI to AGI international agreements • design an international governance system • begin implementation Then it is wise to begin exploring governance approaches now.
- 22. Proposed Global GovernanceStudy 1. Assess current studies of governance issues, questions, concepts, and models 2. Conduct Real-Time Delphi (RTD) study on questions not asked or poorly answered 3. Draft detailed alternative governance scenarios based on RTD results 4. Review of the feasibility, viability, and effectiveness of the ANI to AGI governance models in each scenario by the RTD panel; and 5. Produce a report on each step concluding with recommendations for international governance of the transition from ANI to AGI to simulate global discussion
- 23. Some Potential GovernanceModels 1. IAEA-like model or WTO-like with enforcement powers 2. IPCC-like model in concert with international treaties 3. International S&T Organization (ISTO) as an online real-time global collective intelligence system; governance by information power GGCC (Global Governance Coordinating Committees) flexible but enforced by national sanctions, ad hoc legal rulings in different countries, and insurance premiums 4. ISO standards affecting international purchases 5. Put different parts of AGI governance under different bodies like ITU, WTO, WIPO 6. TransInstitution
- 24. Governance: Some Issues Shouldan international agency have access to all AI code to review ethics? And how to protect the IP of the coder/author Transparency of governance systems vs trust of elites or third party auditors? UN? What lessons from regulations, standards, and governance from the IAEA should be transferred to the governance of the transition from ANI to AGI? General governance cannot anticipate everything; so, special cases can build up amendments to rules, standards, treaties, etc. Just as legal judgement is based on previous decisions and on legislation. How to reduce the use of ANI to AGI by organized crime and terrorism? How can/should governance models address geopolitical issues in an AI development race? Government spends money on detecting nuclear, bio, chemical, and conventional weapons; so too will need to do this for AI and learn from IAEA and others.
- 25. Standards: Some Issues •Purpose for AGI: Create synergies with humans to continually improve civilization? • On what values should AGI standards be based – Declaration of Human Rights and related UN treaties and protocols? – Optimize for UN SD Goals (New UN office in the Hague) Algorithm prejudice – alignment of utility functions and human values Algorithm ethics audits Alignment of values and the utility function with future conditions unknown (How can standards and governance correct undesirable actions unanticipated in utility functions?) – trace decision tree back to point that lead to the error and re- write and share with other AI
- 26. Standards: Some Issues(continued) Require open source code or audit certification (patent, trade secret?) Open source AI makes it easier to monitor ethics, but makes it easier for unethical people to gain an advantage. Has personal data become a global commons from which insights in medicine etc. can develop better medical diagnosis? Should we first evolve ISO standards?
- 27. China Goal: Leadthe World in AI by 2030 Who ever leads AI... rules the world - Putin Human Brain Projects: USA, EU, China Artificial Brains: IBM, Google, Facebook, Baidu, Microsoft, Alibaba, Apple, Amazon The Great Brain Race is on!
- 28. These Technologies CouldAlso Make This Combination Far More Powerful… Organized Crime Corruption Terrorism Information Warfare …Making Democracy and Free Markets… …An Illusion
- 29. A few Wordsabout The Millennium Project
- 30. … Acts likea TransInstitution UN Organizations NGOs and Foundations Universities Governments Corporations The Millennium Project Created in 1996
- 31. 65 Nodes...and tworegional networks in Europe and Latin America Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: Tunisia Yerevan Sri Lanka
- 33. For further information [email protected] Thefollowing are resources are available at: http://www.millennium-project.org • Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions • State of the Future 19.1 • Futures Research Methodology 3.0 • Global Futures Intelligence System