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Measuring Progress: Indicators, data sources and assessment | Laszlo Pinter, IISD
- 1. Measuring progress: Indicators, data sources and assessment LaszloPinter, PhD Senior Fellow, IISD Professor and Head of Department, CEU Nadi, Fiji February 9, 2018
- 2. • Overview ofmeasurement and indicators • Exercise and sharing: Indicator stories • Break • Indicator systems and their uses • Country examples • High-level principles for assessment and measurement Overview
- 3. • Overview ofmeasurement and indicators • Exercise and sharing: Indicator stories • Break • Indicator systems and their uses • Country examples • High-level principles for assessment and measurement Overview
- 4. The indicators asociety chooses to report to itself about itself are surprisingly powerful. They reflect collective values and inform collective decisions. A nation that keeps a watchful eye on its salmon runs or the safety of its streets makes different choices than does a nation that is only paying attention to its GNP. The idea of citizens choosing their own indicators is something new under the sun - something intensely democratic. Donella Meadows Source: Meadows, D. (1998) Indicators and information systems for sustainable development. Report for the Balaton Group. Hartland Four Corners, VT: The Sustainability Institute. Why measure?
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- 6. • Is therange and nature of hazards changing? Indicators and adaptation
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- 8. • Is therange and nature of hazards changing? • Who is exposed to risk and to what extent? Indicators and adaptation
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- 10. • Is therange and nature of hazards changing? • Who is exposed to risk and to what extent? • What are the impacts we already experience? Indicators and adaptation
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- 12. • Is therange and nature of hazards changing? • Who is exposed to risk and to what extent? • What are the impacts we already experience? • What are our adaptive capacities and are they adequate? Indicators and adaptation
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- 14. • Is therange and nature of hazards changing? • Who is exposed to risk and to what extent? • What are the impacts we already experience? • What are our adaptive capacities and are they adequate? • What are we doing to respond? Indicators and adaptation
- 15. Direct economic lossesdue to flooding vs. flood control spending in China, 2005-2013 Source: http://chinawaterrisk.org/resources/analysis-reviews/china-gaps-in-rainy-day-funding/
- 16. • Is therange and nature of hazards changing? • Who is exposed to risk and to what extent? • What are the impacts we already experience? • What are our adaptive capacities and are they adequate? • What are we doing to respond? • Are our responses delivering what we thought they would? Indicators and adaptation
- 17. Direct economic lossesdue to flooding vs. flood control spending in China, 2005-2013 Source: http://chinawaterrisk.org/resources/analysis-reviews/china-gaps-in-rainy-day-funding/
- 18. An indicator isdeveloped on the understanding that we can manage only what we can measure. Indicators in general simplify complex phenomena. (European Environment Agency) Indicators attempt to convey a broader image than the underlying statistics would suggest. (Encyclopedia of the Earth) What is an indicator
- 19. 20 Source: Pinter, L.,K. Zahedi and D. Cressman (2000) Capacity Building for Integrated Environmental Assessment and Reporting . Winnipeg: IISD and Nairobi: UNEP.
- 20. Mandate to developindicator system 1. Establish coordination mechanism Existing framework, new science, new ambitions 2. Develop or adopt conceptual framework 3. Identify priority issues Stakeholder input, review of key documents 4. Select indicators based on criteria Existing indicators, indicator selection criteria 5. Data collection and monitoring Data sources, primary data collection mechanisms 6. Assessment Integrated assessment methods, models, goals and targets 7. ReportingReporting format and platforms 8. Indicator use in policy planning, implementation and review Policy mechanisms in need of measurement and assessment 9. Indicator system review, learning and adjustment Assessment of indicator system, its reporting and use Indicator process
- 21. A conceptual frameworkis a set of interrelated concepts, principles, and ideas that help organize and direct thinking about a particular issue. Conceptual framework
- 22. Our Activities Adaptation indicatorframeworks: A brief systems story Courtesy of BEE Environmental Communications https://bee.co.hu/
- 23. 24 Governance system Ecological system Socialsystem Economic system
- 24. What you wantto measure can impact the kind of framework. • Assessing a system? E.g., Adaptation needs and actions, impacts in the studied system summarized in NAP • Assessing a project/program? E.g. looking at the NAP activities/programs Frameworks
- 25. as they leadto different types of indicators • Vulnerability and impacts: conditions adaptation needs to respond to • Adaptation outcomes: changes that result from the implementation of plans policies and interventions • Processes: adopted laws, strategies completed, strategies reviewed, $ allocated Frameworks matter…
- 26. ResponsesDrivers Pressures State Impacts Urban growth, extreme drought Water overconsumption Waterreservoirs at 15% capacity Water unavailable for certain purpose in the expected quantities Water rationing, prohibition of certain water uses
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- 28. Only indicators thatmeet certain quality criteria should be used Not all the criteria can be assessed at the beginning. Indicator system development is iterative. Criteria for indicator selection
- 29. Specific: It isclear what the indicator is intending to measure Measurable: Trackable, objectively verifiable Achievable: Can realistically be measured Relevant: Relates to important aspect, valid Time-bound: Clearly states the time-frame for results SMART Criteria
- 30. • Scientific /technical credibility • Relevance for decision-making • Data availability • Measurability • Understandability • Comparability • Cost • Etc. Many other criteria…
- 31. Common indicator challenges 32 Aggregateindicators
- 32. Relationship between data, indicatorsand indices 33
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- 35. Indicator anatomy • Accurateand catchy name • Key messages, color-coded performance summary • Definition of indicator • Well-designed and fully labeled charts and maps • Link to full data • Connection to goals and targets • Unit of measures • Clear labelling • Data sources • Analysis, including interlinkages • Further details • Illustrative stories • References
- 36. Data types anddata sources • No magical source • Statistical agencies • Geospatial observation networks • Research organizations and projects • Citizen observation, crowdsourcing, big data • Opinion surveys, polls • Mass media • Private sector • International organizations • …
- 37. Poor quality andlimited availability of data ‘Shopping list’ of indicators Complex calculation methods Irrelevance Over-aggregation or oversimplification Changing monitoring system and measurement methods Changing targets and reference values Misleading interpretations … Indicator challenges
- 38. • Overview ofmeasurement and indicators • Exercise and sharing: Indicator stories • Break • Indicator systems and their uses • Country examples • High-level principles for assessment and measurement Overview
- 39. • Form groupsof 4-5, designate rapporteur (5 min) • Each group member identifies an adaptation- related indicator from his/her personal practice and briefly describes its relevance for adaptation (10 min) • Each group select the most interesting case and interviews the story holder to gather more details (10 min) • What was being measured • How was it measured • What was the key message of the indicator • How was the information used • Share in plenary (2 min) Exercise steps
- 40. • Overview ofmeasurement and indicators • Exercise and sharing: Indicator stories • Break • Indicator systems and their uses • Country examples • High-level principles for assessment and measurement Overview
- 41. • Overview ofmeasurement and indicators • Exercise and sharing: Indicator stories • Break • Indicator systems and their uses • Country examples • High-level principles for assessment and measurement Overview
- 42. Whose indicators –cross-scale connections Pintér, L. "De-mystifying sustainable development through performance measurement." In A. R. Magalhães, Sustainable development - Implications for world peace. Austin, TX: Lyndon B.Johnson School of Public Affairs and the University of Texas at Austin, 1997, pp. 61-73. Presented at the Tom Slick Conference on “Sustainable Development: Implications for World Peace”. Austin TX, 27-29 March, 1996
- 43. Mandate to developindicator system 1. Establish coordination mechanism Existing framework, new science, new ambitions 2. Develop or adopt conceptual framework 3. Identify priority issues Stakeholder input, review of key documents 4. Select indicators based on criteria Existing indicators, indicator selection criteria 5. Data collection and monitoring Data sources, primary data collection mechanisms 6. Assessment Integrated assessment methods, models, goals and targets 7. ReportingReporting format and platforms 8. Indicator use in policy planning, implementation and review Policy mechanisms in need of measurement and assessment 9. Indicator system review, learning and adjustment Assessment of indicator system, its reporting and use Indicator process
- 44. Mandate to developindicator system 1. Establish coordination mechanism Existing framework, new science, new ambitions 2. Develop or adopt conceptual framework 3. Identify priority issues Stakeholder input, review of key documents 4. Select indicators based on criteria Existing indicators, indicator selection criteria 5. Data collection and monitoring Data sources, primary data collection mechanisms 6. Assessment Integrated assessment methods, models, goals and targets 7. Reporting 8. Indicator use in policy planning, implementation and review Reporting format and platforms Policy mechanisms in need of measurement and assessment 9. Indicator system review, learning and adjustment Assessment of indicator system, its reporting and use Strategy formulation Planning Implementation Review, learning, adjustment
- 45. • They area menu, countries will select indicators that match their priority issues and context • Standardized approach,methodology and quality control by UNSD and national partners • Facilitate comparability • The set is still (and will be) incomplete • Adaptation-related indicators cut across essentially all SDGs and SDGIs • Opportunity to harmonize indicators across scale • Tied to SDG Means of Implementation mechanisms donor assistance, national budget processes, strategic plans etc. • There may be associated time-bound, quantitative targets that strengthen accountability SDG indicators
- 46. Synergies between SDGs, Sendai frameworkand Paris agreement: Timo!
- 47. • To measureoverall ‘progress’ • To provide early warning • To support assessment and analysis • To support the development of a holistic approach • To support projections and scenario development • To study distributional issues • To helps establish performance targets • To aid the development of budgets and investment • To educate decision-makers and the general public • Source: OECD, EEA, FAO, Lowell Center for Sustainable Development Indicator uses
- 48. • Adaptation plansdeveloped today must address the conditions of future climate change • Building NAPs around indicators with past data alone would be misleading • Working with projections opens a whole new class of conceptual, methodological, communication and political complexities Example: indicator use in scenario planning
- 50. • Impacts andRisks from High-end Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions • Study the impacts of high-end climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) for vulnerability and adaptation • 4-year, EUR8M project funded by the EU • 4 integrated (climate and socio-economic) scenarios • Developed in close collaboration with stakeholders • Case studies in Scotland, Iberia, Hungary, Eu and Central Asia • http://www.impressions-project.eu/ IMPRESSIONS project
- 52. 2016 2030 20702100 = goals for ideal pathway = vision = without adaptation = with adaptationvulnerability
- 54. • Overview ofmeasurement and indicators • Exercise and sharing: Indicator stories • Break • Indicator systems and their uses • Country examples • High-level principles for assessment and measurement Overview
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- 56. • Overview ofmeasurement and indicators • Exercise and sharing: Indicator stories • Break • Indicator systems and their uses • Country examples • High-level principles for assessment and measurement Overview
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- 58. Principle 1: Guidingvision Assessing progress towards sustainable development is guided by the goal to deliver wellbeing within the capacity of the biosphere to sustain it for future generations.
- 59. Principle 2: Essential considerations Sustainabilityassessments consider: The underlying social, economic and environmental system as a whole and the interactions among its components The adequacy of governance mechanisms Dynamics and interactions between current trends and drivers of change Risks, uncertainties, and activities that can have an impact across boundaries Implications for decision making, including trade-offs and synergies
- 60. Principle 3: Adequatescope Sustainability assessments adopt: Appropriate time horizon to capture both short and long term effects of current policy decisions and human activities Appropriate geographical scope ranging from local to global
- 61. Principle 4: Frameworkand indicators Sustainability assessments are based on: A conceptual framework that identifies the domains that core indicators have to cover reliable data, projections and models The most recent and reliable data, projections and models to infer trends and build scenarios Standardized measurement methods, wherever possible, in the interest of comparability Comparison of indicator values with targets and benchmarks, where possible
- 62. Principle 5: Transparency Sustainabilityassessments: Ensure that data, indicators and results are accessible to the public Explain the choices, assumptions and uncertainties determining the results of the assessment Disclose data sources and methods Disclose all sources of funding and potential conflicts of interest
- 63. Principle 6: Effective communication Inthe interest of effective communication, to attract the broadest possible audience and minimise the risk of misuse, sustainability assessments: Use clear and plain language Present information in a fair and objective way, that helps to build trust Use innovative visual tools and graphics to aid interpretation and tell a story Make data available in as much detail as reliable and practical
- 64. Principle 7: Broad participation Tostrengthen their legitimacy and relevance, sustainability assessments: Find appropriate ways to reflect the views of the public, while providing active leadership Engage early on with users of the assessment so that it best fits their needs
- 65. Principle 8: Continuityand Capacity Sustainability assessments require: Repeated measurement Responsiveness to change Investment to develop and maintain adequate capacity Continuous learning and improvement
- 66. www.napglobalnetwork.org [email protected] Twitter: @NAP_Network Financial supportprovided by Secretariat hosted by