New Bostonians Summit - 2010
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The document discusses how Boston will face labor and skill shortages in the coming years due to an aging population, declining birth rates, and job growth requiring higher education and language skills. Upgrading the skills and education of immigrant workers could significantly boost the economy by increasing incomes, jobs, and tax revenues. Investment in ESOL and education programs is needed to address the changing job market demands for higher skills.
New Bostonians Summit - 2010
- 1. New Bostonians Summit Boston, March - 2010 Alvaro Lima
- 2. the story: increasingly, there will be more people looking for their glasses than people able to find them…
- 3. … this story is driven by three factors: - the disproportionate size of the baby boom generation; The Baby Boom – 1946 - 1964 1/3 of all Americans - 76 million people - were born between 1946 and 1964
- 4. - increasing longevity of the population; a hundred years ago, only 4% of the U.S. population was over 65, today it is 14% and rising
- 5. … and declining birth rates after peaking at 3.7 in mid-1950, the average number of children per woman in the U.S. has declined to 2 (replacement rate is 2.1)
- 6. … this is the story. What are the consequences? unless birth rates change dramatically, we will have a shortage of labor …
- 7. … the shortage of labor: - 14.6 million jobs* will be created between 2008 and 2018 (Northeastern University, 2010); - assuming no dramatic change in the birth rate, labor force participation , and immigration, - 5.0 to 5.7 million jobs will go vacant in this period (Northeastern University, 2010); * new nonfarm payroll jobs
- 8. … whatever the solution is, immigrants will be a part of it, and this , creates a shortage of skills…
- 9. two aspects – educational attainment and language proficiency are key to close these gaps 9
- 10. overall, there are significant differences in the educational levels of Metro Boston’s native and foreign-born workforces: 18% of Metro Boston’s foreign-born workforce has less than a high school education, compared to 6% of the native-born workforce; Close to ½ of the native-born workforce has a 4-year college degree or higher compared to 38% for the foreign-born workforce. Educational Attainment by Nativity Status-Metro Boston’s Workforce Source: 2006 American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 11. there is a clear connection between educational requirements and income: Close to 88% of all jobs in the labor market require at least a high school diploma; Jobs requiring a college degree pay 2½ times more than jobs requiring less than a high school education; While there are jobs available to people with limited education, these jobs pay dramatically less than jobs requiring even modest amounts of advanced education. All Jobs by Educational Requirements in Metro Boston-2004 Less than HS HS Diploma Associates BA or higher Employment Employment Employment Employment 12.5% 33.5% 29.5% 24.5% Average Wage Average Wage Average Wage Average Wage $26,575 $34,186 $46,803 $69,130 11 Source: Labor Market Assessment Tool, Boston Redevelopment Authority Research Division Analysis.
- 12. between 2000 and 2006, Metro Boston’s foreign-born workforce increased by almost 94,000 people (an absolute increase of approximately 32%): Nativity Breakdown-Metro Boston’s Workforce- 2000 and 2006 N = 0.3 million N = 0.4 million N = 1.5 million N = 1.5 million N = 1.8 million N = 1.9 million Source: 2006 American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 13. in 2000 close to 55,000 members of Metro Boston’s workforce had limited English language proficiency (LEP). By 2006 this number was close to 88,000; during this period, the foreign-born workforce grew 32% while the workforce with LEP grew 37%. English Language Skills-Metro Boston’s Workforce - 2000 and 2006 N = 88 thousand N = 54 thousand N = 1.7 million N = 1.7 million Source: 2006 American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
- 14. overall, 64% of all jobs in the labor market fall in the medium-low or medium-high language skill categories; the highest language skill category pays almost 3 times more than the lowest language skill category; while there are jobs available to people with limited language skills, these jobs pay dramatically less than jobs requiring even modest language skills. All Jobs by Language Skill Requirement in Metro Boston - 2004 Low Medium-Low Medium-High High Employment Employment Employment Employment 19% 30% 34% 17% Average Wage Average Wage Average Wage Average Wage $25,043 $33,145 $53,680 $71,117 14 Source: Labor Market Assessment Tool, Boston Redevelopment Authority Research Division Analysis.
- 15. now imagine we upgrade language skills and educational attainment by one level 15
- 16. …If the 88,000 workers with limited English language skills were to move up one level… Key Characteristics of Occupations by Language Skill Requirements - All Industries 19% 30% 34% 17% Low Medium-Low Medium-High High Average $33,145 $53,680 $71,117 $25,043 Salary Note: Metro-Boston 2004 16 Source: Labor Market Assessment Tool, Boston Redevelopment Authority, Research Division Analysis
- 17. …the impact of their additional expenditures will be: direct and indirect income increases by $871 million increased spending creates 4,673 new jobs GRP increases by $552 million $54 million more in federal, state and local revenues 17
- 18. …If the 72,000 immigrant workers with less than a high school education were to move up one level… Key Characteristics of Occupations by Language Skill Requirements - All Industries 12.5% 33.5% 29.5% 24.5% Less than HS Diploma Associates BA or HS higher Average $34,186 $46,803 $69,130 $26,575 Salary Note: Metro-Boston 2004 18 Source: Labor Market Assessment Tool, Boston Redevelopment Authority, Research Division Analysis
- 19. …the impact of their additional expenditures will be: direct and indirect income increases by $674 million increased spending creates 3,628 new jobs GRP increases by $426 million $42 million more in federal, state and local revenues 19
- 20. …additional investment in ESOL and EDUCATION is absolutely necessary because the economy is changing 20
- 21. …and higher skills will be needed… employment growth is much greater in occupations requiring high and medium-high language skills and an associate degree or more… 21
- 22. …these problems repeat themselves in the next generation … and that is why we are here to today 22