Nigel Thurlow - DevOps is Enterprise Wide.pdf

Copyright The Flow Consortium llc and Nigel Thurlow 2017 onwards. All rights reserved. Confidential -- Distribution, copying or commercial use prohibited without permission.
Nigel Thurlow
1
flowguides.org
The Evolution of Lean & Agile
Thinking in The Age of Complexity Coming Soon
SubstrateTheory.com
1
WatchNigel.com
FollowNigel.com
StudyNigel.com
TweetNigel.com
ReadNigel.com
ForbesNigel.com

Copyright 2017. Toyota Connected. Confidential -- Distribution prohibited without permission.
The Format Wars

Format Wars in the 70s/80s
3
VS
For those not born in the 70s and 80s JVC beat Sony in the format wars for the dominant Video Tape format, even
though Betamax was superior JVC licensed the VHS format and dominated the global market.
JVC Video Home System (VHS) Video Tape Format Sony Betamax Video Tape Format

Format Wars in the 2020s
4
Scrum is a goal focused planning cadence.
It is more eﬀective with predictable work.
Kanban is a continuous flow cadence. It is
very eﬀective with less predictable work.
Kanban is a signaling system to reduce variation
and non value added work. It is a pull system.
Scrum is a system to reduce batch
sizes of work. It is a pull system.
Kanban is often just used as a visualization tool, and while useful is incomplete. Both support predictable and unpredictable work.
“Let the flow manage the process, and not let management manage the flow”. Ohno p172 Workplace Management
One Piece Flow
SCRUM KANBAN

And Now Value Stream Methods
5
This is simply copying, renaming and corrupting the original work. Stop trying to be relevant. Go fix problems at the Genba!
Amplio Value Stream Impedance Scorecard The Value Stream Management Consortium
The notion of impedance is useful for performing AC analysis of electrical networks,
because it allows relating sinusoidal voltages and currents by a simple linear law.
Source: The State of Value Stream Management Report 2021

Materials and Information Flow Analysis
6
Material (Product) flows forwards. Information flows backwards. Material ends at the customer. Information
starts at the customer. Information also flows between each step of the process.

OODA Replacing PDCA
7
PDCA is a technique for continuous improvement facilitating the definition of hypotheses to be tested
through experiments. The entry and exit points are not fixed. It is at the heart of TPS.

The OODA Loop is NOT a LOOP!
8
VS
As drawn by Agilists As drawn by its creator Col John Boyd
OODA is explaining what you do, it's not telling you how to do anything.
It’s implicit guidance and control. Don’t PDCA my OODA!

Stop Selling New Clothes
9
Bullshido!

Lean Metrics for Complex Work
10
Lean Metrics are a measure in standard work. Standard Work is predictable and repeatable. These metrics were
never designed for complex or unpredictable work. If they work for you then your work is not complex.

Lean Metrics for Standard Work
11
1. Determine or identify
a standard.
2. Establish consensus around
the proposed standard.
3. Confirm that the standard is
reasonable and easy to follow.
500ml
Boiling
20g
12m
1. Takt Time or time per item
to meet customer demand.
2. The work sequence (approach)
required to meet Takt Time.
3. Standard work in process
(SWIP) required to maintain Takt.

Complex Work?
12
Diﬃcult ≠ Complex
Agile & Scrum state they solve complex problems. Complex means unknown and unpredictable.
Most teams work on determinative, predictive, and cumulative iterations. The outcomes are planned.
Complex
Unordered - Unpredictable - Unknown
Diﬃcult
Ordered - Predictable - Known

Nigel’s Law?
13
Proposition: All complexity in an organization is human derived.

Complex vs Complicated
14
Non-Linear – Un-Ordered – Un-Predictable
Dynamic reallocation of resources.
Linear – Ordered – Predictable
Fixed allocation of resources.
What type of work are you actually doing?
UNPREDICTABLE PREDICTABLE

The Actual Lean Metrics
Cycle Time: The time taken to complete one complete item (Story/PBI/Card).
(Product) Lead Time: The total time taken to deliver the work throughout the
whole process until the point of shipping/dispatch/release/production readiness.
(Customer) Lead Time: The total time taken to deliver the work from customer
order to customer receipt. The overall time the customer waits.
Takt Time: How much time you have for each work item to be processed.
(production time / customer demand = max time per item)
Throughput: The rate at which something can be processed (volume) and is
calculated by dividing the output by the duration.

Get The Facts
16
nigelthurlow.com/all-about-lean-metrics/

Variation

Queuing Theory
18
As you consume capacity performance degrades and the time to achieve an outcome increases.

Beware of the Utilization Trap
19
WAITING
TIME
30x
RESOURCE UTILIZATION
0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Waiting times
double as
utilization moves
from 60-80% and
doubles again
from 80-90% and
again from
90-95%.
The Kingman’s Equation

Avoiding Utilization Traps
20
Avoid 100%
Utilization
Avoid High
Variation
High Variation Increases Utilization and the
System Slows Down and Sometimes Stops
Variation means flexibility of
delivery capability (agility).
High Utilization?
Reduce Variation
Utilization
Variation
Utilization increases
Lead Time (queuing).

Little’s Law
L = λW
Lead Time (W) =
L Work in Progress (or size of the queue)
λ Throughput (process efficiency)
Time to get Coffee =
Number of people in the line
People served per minute
Lead Time (W) =
(L) WIP
(λ) Throughput
(L) Queue/WIP = (λ) Throughput x (W) Lead Time
Time to get Coffee =
15 people in line
2 people served per minute
15 people in line
2 people served per minute
= 7.5 mins wait (Lead Time)
Lead Time
Cycle Time
WIP
Tip: Limit WIP in the waiting column and not in the working column. Yes, many of you have it wrong.

I’m Coopting DevOps

EWDOVSM
23
Don’t Panic - It’s More Bullshido

A Value Stream Definition
24
Customer Needs Customer Outcomes
A Value Stream contains all the people, machines, technology and
skills needed to complete the end to end product delivery.
Optimize for Value Flow
Business is Included

Multi Team Systems (MTS)
25
Multi Team Systems (MTS)
A Value Stream consists of one or more teams that together are
independently capable of completing the end to end product delivery.

DevOps is Company Wide
26
This means insourcing end to end governance into the teams, or automating everything that slows them down!
Governance Process
VS

Value is Cross Organization
27
A Value Stream contains all the people, machines, technology and
skills needed to complete the end to end product delivery.
Business Finance Legal Compliance Procurement
Optimize Here with DevOps
Or Scrum/SAFe/Agile
Sub-optimization

Genba/Gemba
The Real Value Stream

What Do You Think The Problem Is?
29
What’s the problem you think you are are trying to solve? These are not problems, they are outcomes!
Positive or Negative Growth, Costs, Time to Market, Customer/Staﬀ Attrition are not problems, they’re outcomes!
They reflect how you do what you do. You need to change how you do work if you want diﬀerent outcomes.
Attrition
Time to Market
Growth
Costs

Theory of Constraints
30
The theory of constraints defines a constraint as:
“anything that prevents the system from achieving a better performance measure towards its goal”.
Add capacity
here.
Performance
declines here.
System throughput declines because you are adding more work to the bottleneck.

Relieve Bottlenecks
31
Flow of Value
BOTT LENECK
A bottleneck is a resource with capacity less or equal to the demand put upon it, while a constraint is a limiting
factor to the organization’s performance, an obstacle hindering the organization from achieving its goal.
A bottleneck can be called a constraint, but a constraint is not always a bottleneck.

How Do You Do What You Do?
32
Do you know how you do what you do? What is the actual problem that needs to be solved?
Until you recognize the problem that you need to solve there is little point implementing solutions.
OUTCOME
Constraints
Silos/Handoﬀs
Red Tape

Digital or Analog Transformation?
33
Most digital transformation focuses on digitizing products and services yet the internal operating model
remains analog. Is your digital pipeline really just a set of wait states?
Digitization as Imagined Digitization in Reality

34
現地⾒物
To understand the fact (=No assumption) where the issue actually occurred to take the next action
To just go to the place and see the thing (Do nothing)
Actual Place Actual Thing
Gen Chi Gen Butsu
Actual Place Seeing Thing
Gen Chi Ken Butsu
34
現地現物
Go & Observe - Not Just See!

Sightseeing Trips
35
Genchi Kenbutsu

Work as Imagined vs Work as Done
37

Nigel at the Genba
38
I learned more in 8 hours on shift than I did in 3 weeks watching!

Learning to See the Unseen
39
If you can’t see it, you don’t know what you need to fix!
Hidden value &
hidden costs!

Visual Management Purpose
42
What do I need to know to do my work? What do I need to share externally about my work?
The visual workplace needs to answer two questions.
Visual control (known as ANDON or external radiators) should only present the facts. Displays without
facts are visualization, they are not utilization (current condition and progress).
Mainly Eye Candy

Mapping Your Value Stream

Stagnation - A Lack of Flow
44
Merging Process Splitting Process Broken Connection
A) C)
B)
A stagnant state or condition : a state or condition marked by lack of flow, movement, or development.

Team Size Impact on Communication
45
3 people, 3 lines 4 people,6 lines 5 people, 10 lines 6 people, 15 lines
7 people, 21 lines 8 people, 28 lines 9 people, 36 lines 10 people, 45 lines
11 people, 55 lines 12 people, 66 lines 13 people, 78 lines 14 people, 91 lines
Formula
(L=N(N-1)/2)

How Work Gets Done
46
8 Teams - 24 Nodes
Links = (24*(24-1)/2)
Links = 276

Compliance Adds More Complexity
47
9 Teams - 31 Nodes
Links = (31*(31-1)/2)
Links = 465

2 Week Sprint - 81 Days!
48
Cycle Time 19.7 Days
Waiting Time 61.2 Days
Avg Lead Time 80.9 Days
Value Added 1.75-2.0 Days
Process Cycle Eﬃciency 2.1-2.5%
81 Days to deliver a
backlog item/user story!
A 2 week sprint?
2.1 - 2.5% Eﬃcient
That’s 98% Waste!

Value Stream Map
49
Batch
Size
Process 1
Details
n
Measurements
Lead Time
Process Time
PCE%
%Complete
%Accurate
%C&A
Process 2
Details
n
Measurements
Lead Time
Process Time
PCE%
%Complete
%Accurate
%C&A
Process 3
Details
n
Measurements
Lead Time
Process Time
PCE%
%Complete
%Accurate
%C&A
Process 4
Details
n
Measurements
Lead Time
Process Time
PCE%
%Complete
%Accurate
%C&A
Process 5
Details
n
Measurements
Lead Time
Process Time
PCE%
%Complete
%Accurate
%C&A
Batch
Size
Batch
Size
Waiting Waiting Waiting Waiting
Flow Flow Flow Flow
Customer
IT System A IT System B

Current State Summary Measures
50
Not all metrics will apply to all value streams. Cycle Time is the time to produce one complete item. Lead Time is
the time to produce the full order quality ready for shipping. Process Time and Cycle Time can be the same.
LT - 1 day
PT - 2 hours
LT - 5 days
PT - 8 hours
LT - 2 days
PT - 1 hour
LT - 5 days
PT - 4 hours
LT - 1 day
PT - 3 hours
Total LT = 14 days (112hrs)
Total PT = 18 hours
PCE = 16% (PT/LTx100)
Rolled %C&A = %
Rolled %C&A is the average of complete and accurate work. (%C&A x %C&A x%C&A x %C&A) x 100 = Rolled %C&A

Energy Follows Information
51
The flow of information needs to be achieved using the least amount of energy possible to obtain maximum eﬀectiveness.
Sources: Jankovic & Cirkovic, 2016, Walker & Davies, 2013, Bennett, 2019
Once created, life itself is sustained
through the cellular transfer of information.
As more information is needed,
more energy is expended.
Information Value is defined as
Providing Actionable Information.
Information is considered valuable
if it’s available when needed.
Logical Depth is the time and energy
needed to obtain actionable information.
The Flow of information controls the
properties and behavior of a system.

Hidden Costs of Information Flow
52
Batch
Size
Process 1
Details
n
Process 2
Details
n
Process 3
Details
n
Process 4
Details
n
Process 5
Details
n
Batch
Size
Batch
Size
Waiting Waiting Waiting Waiting
Flow Flow Flow Flow
Excel Database ERP Procurement Legal
Understanding and simplifying information flows is essential. Immense cost is hidden in how information flows
between systems and departments. Knowledge work is predominately The Flow of Information.

Step 1 - Calculate Takt Time (Demand)
53
Customer Demand:
250 Items in 1 week

~ 50 Items per day

40 hours per week

8 hours per day

2400 minutes/wk

480 minutes/day/shift

Takt Time = time/demand

2400 mins/250 items = 9.6 min/item

Step 2 - Walk The Process
54
Quickly walk the process with the group or team Ito grasp the general flow. Define the start and stop point of the process, the
boundaries for this mapping activity. Don’t try to map the entire organization!

Step 3 - Add The Customer
55
Customer Details
Customer Demand/
Requirements
In the top right hand corner of the map we add the customer. Add a box detailing the customer demand for this map and the takt
time calculated earlier. Ultimately we need to map how we do what we do and if we can achieve this demand.

Step 4 - Start at The End of the Process
56
In the top right hand corner of the map we add the customer. Add a box detailing the customer demand for this map and the takt
time calculated earlier. Ultimately we need to map how we do what we do and if we can achieve this demand.
Start Here!
Continue Here
Customer Demand:
250 Items in 1 week

Takt Time = 9.6 min
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Total C/T = nn Total C/T = nn Total C/T = nn
Customer
Direction of Travel

Step 5 - Focus on Material Flow First
57
Customer Demand:
250 Items in 1 week

Takt Time = 9.6 min
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Customer
Supplier
Focus on the flow of materials/work first. This includes the process/work boxes and data boxes containing relevant timing.

Step 6 - Add WIP & Wait Times
58
Customer Demand:
250 Items in 1 week

Takt Time = 9.6 min
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Customer
Supplier
QTY
QTY
QTY QTY
For inventory, we simply count the number of pieces in between the processes and note them under the triangle. We also add the
time taken in each step to produce each item (CT), and notate the time spent waiting between each process.

Step 7 - Add The Information Flow
59
Customer Demand:
250 Items in 1 week

Takt Time = 9.6 min
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Customer
Supplier
QTY
QTY
QTY QTY
This is a key step in diﬀerentiating this from a simple process map, in addition from working in reverse we add the flow of
information. Straight lines are analog/manual information flows, lighting bolts are electronic information flows.
ERP
Weekly
Forecast
Monthly
Forecast
Production
Daily
Order

Step 8 - Add The Timeline & Metrics
60
Customer Demand:
250 Items in 1 week

Takt Time = 9.6 min
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Process Step
Customer
Supplier
QTY
QTY
QTY QTY
ERP
Weekly
Forecast
Monthly
Forecast
Production
Daily
Order
LT - n units
CT - n units
Total LT = nn time
Total CT = nn hours
PCE = nn% (PT/LTx100)
Rolled %C&A = nn%
Time Time Time
LT - n units
CT - n units
LT - n units
CT - n units
LT - n units
CT - n units
Time

What isn’t FLOW?

NOT a Replacement for Agile
62
There is no such thing as a Flow Advisor, Flow Master, Flow Coach, Flow Resource, or Senior Flow Anything!

NOT a Framework
63
Require
ments
Product Backlog
6
4 5
3
2
1
Planned Work
Backlog Refinement
To Do Doing Done
PBI
PBI
PBI
PBI
Sprint Planning
Daily Scrum
Customer Feedback
Sprint Review
Sprint Retrospective
Kaizen
PBI

NOT a Methodology
64
METHOD is a series of actions or steps taken in order to achieve a particular end.
METHODOLOGY is a series of methods and tools.

NOT a Tool
65
A device or implement used to carry out a particular function.

NOT a Prescription
66
Take A One Size Fits
all Framework!
Refill about every 3-5 years!
EXPENSIVE CONSULTANCY
1 PowerPoint Masters DR
Endless Budget
Zip: 666
The CIO/CTO/CFO/CDO
Your Company Name Here

NOT a Manifesto
67

Not an Annual Certification Fee!
68
Flow does not require certification, a certificate, or a badge. Ignore the pyramid sales schemes.

Assemblages Theory
Triple Helix of Flow

Assemblages
70
Assemblages provide several potential methods that
can be combined to aid in navigating complexity.
Coming together of methods varying by context and counter
to the concept of universality (one size fits all approach).
Assemblages are defined solely by their external
relations of composition, mixture, and aggregation.
Assemblages are viewed as becoming, constantly
evolving and emerging based on context.
Assemblages do not repeat exactly, utilizing diﬀerent components varying in intensity, order, and
interdependencies. This variance depends on contextual and situational factors as well as any constraints.

Not an Assemblage
71
Oxymoron
Everyone knows the components and how they assemble together and the system is designed around this
assembly requirement. Ordered and not an assemblage. Just a collection of tools.

Forget Frameworks and Change Lives
72
Nguet has done this job for 42 years. She trained me and to say thank you I gave her flowers. She then bought
me a gift to say thank you and told me I was the first person that had ever made her feel worth something.

Nigel Thurlow - DevOps is Enterprise Wide.pdf

More Related Content

Similar to Nigel Thurlow - DevOps is Enterprise Wide.pdf

More from DevOpsDays DFW

Recently uploaded

Nigel Thurlow - DevOps is Enterprise Wide.pdf