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Why Over-the-Top is the Future of Communications
The document discusses how over-the-top (OTT) services like Skype, Netflix, and social media will become the dominant form of communication. It notes that 1-3 year predictions about technology adoption are often too optimistic, but the actual long-term outcomes are more transformative than expected. As bandwidth availability increases with technologies like 4G LTE, OTT services will handle more data-intensive applications like video calling and streaming. The document concludes that OTT is already becoming the primary way people access voice and video, and this transition will only accelerate over time.
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Why Over-the-Top is the Future of Communications
- 1. Over the Top Brough Turner
- 2. Why Over the Top is the Future of Communica7on Brough Turner Founder, netBlazr.com
- 3. • "Internet protocol networks are like Pac Man. Eventually they will eat everything.” – Hossein Eslambolchi, AT&T's CTO, 2003 • "Anyone who relies on the fact that they own a scarce distribu7on resource is going to face ten years of turmoil.” – Paul Sagan, chief execuHve of Akamai, 2007 • "If a customer likes it, it doesn't maIer what it does to your economics – it's going to happen.” – Jack Cassidy, CEO of CincinnaH Bell, 2008
- 4. PredicHons vs. Outcomes • 1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc – Takes longer or never happens … • Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected – But decades perspecHve
- 5. PredicHons vs. Outcomes • 1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc – Takes longer or never happens … • Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected – But decades perspecHve Hype
- 6. PredicHons vs. Outcomes • 1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc – Takes longer or never happens … • Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected – But decades perspecHve AdopHon
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- 9. Ne[lix Performance on Top US Networks
- 10. Data Rates • TwiWer: Negligible • Facebook: Tiny (except video) • Skype audio: 6-‐40 Kbps * • Ne[lix SD Video: 500, 1000 & 1500 Kbps ** • Ne[lix HD Video: 2600 & 3800 Kbps ** * SILK wideband audio coder ** VC1 Advanced Profile video coder
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- 13. Latency is Important ConversaHon, even with a voice mail system, requires low latency hWp://www.flickr.com/photos/fadderuri/2715777726/
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- 15. Voice QoS 1. Dedicated wires = 20th century approach – Cable & FiOS use separate logical path today 2. Simple prioriHes – Mobile telephony (2G-‐ & 3G-‐specific approaches) – Enterprise IP-‐PBXs (via DiffServ or 802.1p) 3. Extra bandwidth, i.e. “headroom” – Vonage, etc. – Skype
- 16. Mobile download bandwidth Akamai State of the Internet Report 3Q 2010
- 17. Voice on 4G • LTE is all-‐IP: Voice services a work-‐in-‐progress 1. Fallback to 3G voice 2. Leverage IMS / “One voice” / VoLTE (not VoLGA) • 4-‐6 years for widespread 4G voice services based on carrier-‐provided QoS
- 18. Over-‐the-‐Top • Video Social – Happening now – Game over – Happening fast ! • Voice – Happening now – TransiHoning market-‐by-‐market, as bandwidth headroom becomes available. – Over-‐the-‐top voice on 4G is a certainty
- 19. Over the Top is the Future of Communica7on Thank you Brough Turner [email protected]