Preparing for the future: anticipating, monitoring and adapting to environmental change
Download as PPTX, PDF0 likes1,027 views
The document discusses preparing for future environmental change through anticipating, monitoring, and adapting to change. It proposes drawing on local and scientific knowledge to more effectively anticipate the future, empower stakeholders to monitor changes, and adapt rapidly to change. The document outlines a plan to better understand stakeholder priorities, conceptualize system models, refine scenarios, model possible futures, communicate outputs, and find innovative responses. It also discusses indicators for monitoring change and case studies of adapting to change in locations like Botswana, Spain, and the UK. The overall aim is to sustain rural communities and the environment under future pressures.
![RecreationHill Farming“At the moment there is a conflict between us [Natural England] and the people who manage fires, that we need to sort out. It’s a big thing - its probably the most important thing.”Water CompaniesSporting InterestsConservation“I think perhaps the moors are over-burnt and not respected from the point that they are driven too hard and pushed too hard for the purpose of the grouse…they are looking for more and more and more…But it becomes like any mono-culture then – if you’re driven so single-mindedly by one thing, that tends to knacker nature – that’s the problem.”](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/reedm-100709112159-phpapp01/85/Preparing-for-the-future-anticipating-monitoring-and-adapting-to-environmental-change-21-320.jpg)
![“The heather moorlands… are there because of grouse shooting. Full-stop… Whether we like it or not, grouse shooting is the raison d’être.”“[They] want to paint by numbers. The problem is [they] can’t tell you what the numbers are. [They] can’t tell you what is going to happen.”RecreationHill FarmingWater CompaniesSporting InterestsConservation“I’ve spent thirty years managing land and I’ve seen all these things come and go. So when you tell me as a very sincere young man with a great deal of credentials, that your prescription is right, you just listen to me: the guy who gave me 100% grant aid…to plough heather moorland also believed he was right because moorland was “waste”.”](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/reedm-100709112159-phpapp01/85/Preparing-for-the-future-anticipating-monitoring-and-adapting-to-environmental-change-22-320.jpg)
Preparing for the future: anticipating, monitoring and adapting to environmental change
- 1. Preparing for the futureHow can we anticipate, monitor and adapt to environmental change?Mark ReedUnvegetated dunes, Bokspits, southwest Botswana
- 2. “Where do we come from?What are we?Where are we going?”
- 4. Dreaming
- 5. Scenarios“The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan Kay“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today” Malcolm X
- 6. Farmer interview, Werda, southeast Botswana
- 7. Farmer interview, Boteti District, BotswanaPeak District National Park
- 8. PlanHow can draw on both local and scientific knowledge to:More effectively anticipate what the future might hold?Empower stakeholders to monitor changes as they unfold?Adapt rapidly and effectively to future change?
- 9. Grouse model, Peak District National Park1. Anticipating ChangeStakeholder workshop, Nidderdale AONB, Yorkshire DalesSite Visit, Peak District National Park
- 10. 1. Better understand stakeholders priorities and model social relationships through stakeholder analysis and social network analysis, and select working group
- 11. 2. Understand current/future challenges/opportunities: interviews & site visits with stakeholders/researchers
- 12. 3. Conceptual system model from interviews, site visits & literature; trace drivers to create scenarios
- 13. 4. Refine and prioritise scenarios for investigation
- 14. 5. Model possible futures: details, feedbacks, scenarios interactions, ES trade-offs for future planning
- 15. 6. Communicate model outputs through films that depict different likely futures
- 16. www.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands7. Find innovative ways that people can respond and discuss ideas from literature (How would you respond if this happened?)Model innovative ideas: how likely to work? Use results to revise/refine ideas to ensure they work
- 17. ES synergies & trade-offsCarbon management has a number of synergies: water quality, fire risk, protecting blanket bog species, limiting scrub encroachment and perhaps generating income
- 18. All scenarios appear likely to compromise upland biodiversity
- 19. Already a source of conflict...Golden Plover
- 20. RecreationHill FarmingWater CompaniesInterview sub-sample of Moors for the Future partnership who communicate on a monthly or more frequent basisSporting InterestsConservation
- 21. RecreationHill Farming“At the moment there is a conflict between us [Natural England] and the people who manage fires, that we need to sort out. It’s a big thing - its probably the most important thing.”Water CompaniesSporting InterestsConservation“I think perhaps the moors are over-burnt and not respected from the point that they are driven too hard and pushed too hard for the purpose of the grouse…they are looking for more and more and more…But it becomes like any mono-culture then – if you’re driven so single-mindedly by one thing, that tends to knacker nature – that’s the problem.”
- 22. “The heather moorlands… are there because of grouse shooting. Full-stop… Whether we like it or not, grouse shooting is the raison d’être.”“[They] want to paint by numbers. The problem is [they] can’t tell you what the numbers are. [They] can’t tell you what is going to happen.”RecreationHill FarmingWater CompaniesSporting InterestsConservation“I’ve spent thirty years managing land and I’ve seen all these things come and go. So when you tell me as a very sincere young man with a great deal of credentials, that your prescription is right, you just listen to me: the guy who gave me 100% grant aid…to plough heather moorland also believed he was right because moorland was “waste”.”
- 23. The majority perceive considerable overlap between their views on upland management and views of those they know from other groups
- 24. Need to foster greater trust between some groups to avoid exacerbating conflict under future scenariosRecreationWater CompaniesHill FarmingConservationSporting Interests“A mix with people doing different things is our best hope of creating some semblance of balance.” Agent
- 25. Hydrological Monitoring, Guadalentin, Spain2. Monitoring ChangePlant ecology sampling, southwest Botswana
- 26. Fenced private rangeland next to communal area, southwest BotswanaIndicatorsExamining a thorn bush, Bray farm, southeast BotswanaOral history, southeast Botswana
- 27. 11020 yrsYr 1Yr 10Yr 20Thorny bush encroachment in the Kalahari, Botswana
- 28. Identifying indicators, southwest BotswanaEcological evaluation of indicatorsEvaluating indicators with communities using Multi-Criteria Evaluation
- 29. 3. Adapting to change3. Adapting to ChangeGuadalentin, SpainFocus group with Kalahari innovators
- 30. TunisiaSpainPortugalChinaLettuce farmer, Guadalentin, SpainTurkeyBotswana
- 32. ImpactsManuals for GoB implementation of NAP
- 33. Knowledge management system for UNCCDImpacts"The Sustainable Uplands project is a great example of research that is listening to and valuing those people that manage and live in upland environments whilst at the same time informing UK government and the general public. It is a challenging time for the uplands and the kind of research being carried out by this project is essential when trying to find out how we can sustain rural communities under future pressures”Stuart Burgess CBE, Chairman of the Commission for Rural Communities and Rural Advocate
- 34. BusinessInforming Yorkshire Water, Premier Waste PLC and United Utilities about how they can reduce water treatment costs by reducing water colour inputs from upland management
- 35. PolicyFindings included in NEA (DEFRA/UNEP)IUCN commissioned review on peatland policy options“Future of the Uplands” for Foresight Land Use FuturesCommissioned input to CRC Inquiry into the Future of England’s Upland CommunitiesCase study: Scottish Government Rural Land Use StudyInvited to present to Scottish Government Pack Inquiry & Land Use Strategy teamsValue for Money report for Public Accounts Committee“Making Space for Water” cross-Govt. programme Natural England Ecosystem Service Pilot
- 36. QuestionsWhat makes stakeholder participation deliver positive environmental outcomes in different contexts? How might the attitudes and behaviours that lead to positive environmental outcomes diffuse through society via social learning? British Academy and EU-funded ECOPAG
- 37. QuestionsWhat are the ingredients of successful knowledge exchange? How does knowledge from science and other sources get into policy and practice and vice versa, and how is it transformed or blocked along the way?RELU and EU-funded Ecocycles projects
- 38. QuestionsDoes people’s engagement with the environment enhance their personal well-being? If so how, and does this lead them to engage in more sustainable behaviours?RCUK-funded Be-WEL project
- 39. Contacthttp://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/ Follow me on: www.twitter.com/lecmsrTwo films about the future of the uplands: http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/sustainableuplands/media.htmEmail: [email protected] or text on: 0753 8082343
- 40. Contacthttp://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/Follow me on: www.twitter.com/lecmsrTwo films about the future of the uplands: http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/sustainableuplands/media.htmEmail: [email protected] or text on: 0753 8082343