Three Political Truisms
   All political careers end in failure
Enoch Powell

   It’s the economy, stupid
Bill Clinton aide

   Events, dear boy, events
Harold Macmillan
Prime ministerial powers
- formal
   Head of the Executive
   Chair of the Cabinet
   Quasi Head of State
   Commander-in-chief
   Foreign policy leader
   Parliamentary leader
   Dissolution
Prime ministerial power
- informal
   Chief policy maker
   Patronage
   Government spokesperson
Limitations on power
- formal
   Parliament
   Cabinet
   Party
Limitations on power
- informal
   Popular Image
   Media image
   Personality
   Parliamentary majority
   Party dissent
   Cabinet dissent
   Strength of Opposition
   Stature of predecessor
Jim Callaghan
   Parliamentary majority
   Party dissent (unions)
   Media image
   Wilson’s stature
   Misuse of dissolution power
   Legacy of oil price hike
Margaret Thatcher
   Internal dissent
   Media image
   Length of tenure
   External events
John Major
   Stature of predecessor
   Parliamentary majority
   Party dissent
   Cabinet dissent
   Media image
   Personality
   Economic events
   Strength of Opposition
Tony Blair
   Internal dissent
   One big event
   Parliamentary majority
   Lords and judicial activism
Gordon Brown
   Stature of predecessor
   Personality
   Media image
   Misuse of dissolution
   Events – in spades
   Strength of Opposition
   Parliamentary majority
Lessons from Prime
Ministers’ experience - 1
   10 years and that’s it
   Thatcher, Blair, Brown
   Pareto’s revolving elites
   Patronage
   Media
Lessons from Prime
Ministers’ experience - 2
   External events are increasingly
    influential
   It’s not the events, it’s how you are
    perceived to be handling them
Lessons from Prime
Ministers’ experience - 3
   It’s not just the economy stupid
   Major 1992, Major 1997
   Brown – memories are short
   We’re doomed, Cap’n Mainwaring,
    we’re all doomed.

Prime ministerial power - With recent examples

  • 1.
    Three Political Truisms  All political careers end in failure Enoch Powell  It’s the economy, stupid Bill Clinton aide  Events, dear boy, events Harold Macmillan
  • 2.
    Prime ministerial powers -formal  Head of the Executive  Chair of the Cabinet  Quasi Head of State  Commander-in-chief  Foreign policy leader  Parliamentary leader  Dissolution
  • 3.
    Prime ministerial power -informal  Chief policy maker  Patronage  Government spokesperson
  • 4.
    Limitations on power -formal  Parliament  Cabinet  Party
  • 5.
    Limitations on power -informal  Popular Image  Media image  Personality  Parliamentary majority  Party dissent  Cabinet dissent  Strength of Opposition  Stature of predecessor
  • 6.
    Jim Callaghan  Parliamentary majority  Party dissent (unions)  Media image  Wilson’s stature  Misuse of dissolution power  Legacy of oil price hike
  • 7.
    Margaret Thatcher  Internal dissent  Media image  Length of tenure  External events
  • 8.
    John Major  Stature of predecessor  Parliamentary majority  Party dissent  Cabinet dissent  Media image  Personality  Economic events  Strength of Opposition
  • 9.
    Tony Blair  Internal dissent  One big event  Parliamentary majority  Lords and judicial activism
  • 10.
    Gordon Brown  Stature of predecessor  Personality  Media image  Misuse of dissolution  Events – in spades  Strength of Opposition  Parliamentary majority
  • 11.
    Lessons from Prime Ministers’experience - 1  10 years and that’s it  Thatcher, Blair, Brown  Pareto’s revolving elites  Patronage  Media
  • 12.
    Lessons from Prime Ministers’experience - 2  External events are increasingly influential  It’s not the events, it’s how you are perceived to be handling them
  • 13.
    Lessons from Prime Ministers’experience - 3  It’s not just the economy stupid  Major 1992, Major 1997  Brown – memories are short  We’re doomed, Cap’n Mainwaring, we’re all doomed.