Process Mining: Past, Present, and Future
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The document discusses the evolution and current state of process mining, outlining key developments since its inception in 1999, such as the introduction of various mining techniques and the founding of significant companies like Celonis. It emphasizes the abundance of event data and the availability of numerous commercial and open-source process mining tools that facilitate activities like process discovery and conformance checking. Additionally, it identifies challenges such as data quality and user awareness as inhibitors to successful process mining implementation.
Process Mining: Past, Present, and Future
- 1. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) prof.dr.ir. Wil van der Aalst RWTH Aachen University W: vdaalst.com T:@wvdaalst Process Mining Past, Present, and Future
- 2. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Past “bridging gaps”
- 3. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) < 1999 ≥ 1999 “process management by modeling” Process mining Process discovery Conformance checking Predictive analytics “process management by mining” Petri nets Concurrency theory BPM, WFM, etc. Simulation Formal methods
- 4. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) data process process mining
- 5. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) BPM reality process mining
- 6. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) IT business process mining
- 7. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) • 1999 start of process mining research at TU/e • 2000-2002 Alpha and Heuristic miner • 2004 first version of ProM • 2004-2006 token-based conformance checking, organization mining, decision mining, etc. • 2007 first process mining company (Futura PI) • 2010 alignment-based conformance checking • 2011 founding of Celonis • 2011 first process mining book • 2014 Coursera process mining MOOC • 2016 “Process mining data science in action” book • 2018 Market Guide for Process Mining by Gartner • 2018 Celonis becomes a Unicorn • 2019 ICPM 2019 / Celosphere Milestones 20 years of process mining
- 8. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Present “event data are everywhere”
- 9. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) The technology is there! • There are more than 25 commercial process mining products, next to open-source tools like ProM. • All offer process discovery, bottleneck analysis, filtering, etc. • Increasing support for conformance checking, root-cause analysis, and process discovery that goes beyond the simple directly-follows graph.
- 10. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Starting point: Event data event 71,043 events 12,666 cases 7 activities Case ID Activity Resource Timestamp product prod-price quantity address … … …. … …. … … … 6350 place order Aiden 2018/02/13 14:29:45.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 5 NL-7751DG-21 6283 pay Lily 2018/02/13 14:39:25.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S6 32 GB 543.99 3 NL-7828AM-11a 6253 prepare delivery Sophia 2018/02/13 15:01:33.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 3 NL-7887AC-13 6257 prepare delivery Aiden 2018/02/13 15:03:43.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S6 32 GB 543.99 1 NL-9521KJ-34 6185 confirm payment Emily 2018/02/13 15:05:36.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 1 NL-9521GC-32 6218 confirm payment Emily 2018/02/13 15:08:11.000 APPLE iPhone 6s Plus 64 GB 969,00 € 2 NL-7948BX-10 6245 make delivery Michael 2018/02/13 15:14:04.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 3 NL-7905AX-38 6272 pay Emily 2018/02/13 15:20:36.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 1 NL-7821AC-3 6269 pay Charlotte 2018/02/13 15:25:21.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 1 NL-7907EJ-42 6212 prepare delivery Sophia 2018/02/13 15:43:39.000 HUAWEI P8 Lite 234,00 € 1 NL-7905AX-38 6323 send invoice Alexander 2018/02/13 15:46:08.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 1 NL-7833HT-15 6246 confirm payment Jack 2018/02/13 15:56:03.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 3 NL-7833HT-15 6347 send invoice Jack 2018/02/13 15:57:42.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 3 NL-7905AX-38 6351 place order Zoe 2018/02/13 16:17:37.000 APPLE iPhone 5s 16 GB 449,00 € 3 NL-9521GC-32 6204 prepare delivery Sophia 2018/02/13 16:31:28.000 SAMSUNG Core Prime G361 135,00 € 1 NL-7828AM-11a 6204 make delivery Kaylee 2018/02/13 16:51:54.000 SAMSUNG Core Prime G361 135,00 € 1 NL-7828AM-11a 6265 confirm payment Lily 2018/02/13 16:55:55.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 4 NL-9521GC-32 6250 confirm payment Jack 2018/02/13 17:03:26.000 MOTOROLA Moto G 199,00 € 4 NL-7942GT-2 6328 send invoice Lily 2018/02/13 17:30:16.000 APPLE iPhone 6s 64 GB 858,00 € 4 NL-9514BV-16 6352 place order Aiden 2018/02/13 17:53:22.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 2 NL-9514BV-16 6317 send invoice Jack 2018/02/13 18:45:30.000 APPLE iPhone 6s 64 GB 858,00 € 5 NL-7907EJ-42 6353 place order Sophia 2018/02/13 20:16:20.000 APPLE iPhone 5s 16 GB 449,00 € 4 NL-7751AR-19 … … …. … … … … …
- 11. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Starting point: Event data Case ID Activity Resource Timestamp product prod-price quantity address … … …. … …. … … … 6350 place order Aiden 2018/02/13 14:29:45.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 5 NL-7751DG-21 6283 pay Lily 2018/02/13 14:39:25.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S6 32 GB 543.99 3 NL-7828AM-11a 6253 prepare delivery Sophia 2018/02/13 15:01:33.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 3 NL-7887AC-13 6257 prepare delivery Aiden 2018/02/13 15:03:43.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S6 32 GB 543.99 1 NL-9521KJ-34 6185 confirm payment Emily 2018/02/13 15:05:36.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 1 NL-9521GC-32 6218 confirm payment Emily 2018/02/13 15:08:11.000 APPLE iPhone 6s Plus 64 GB 969,00 € 2 NL-7948BX-10 6245 make delivery Michael 2018/02/13 15:14:04.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 3 NL-7905AX-38 6272 pay Emily 2018/02/13 15:20:36.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 1 NL-7821AC-3 6269 pay Charlotte 2018/02/13 15:25:21.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 1 NL-7907EJ-42 6212 prepare delivery Sophia 2018/02/13 15:43:39.000 HUAWEI P8 Lite 234,00 € 1 NL-7905AX-38 6323 send invoice Alexander 2018/02/13 15:46:08.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 1 NL-7833HT-15 6246 confirm payment Jack 2018/02/13 15:56:03.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 3 NL-7833HT-15 6347 send invoice Jack 2018/02/13 15:57:42.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 3 NL-7905AX-38 6351 place order Zoe 2018/02/13 16:17:37.000 APPLE iPhone 5s 16 GB 449,00 € 3 NL-9521GC-32 6204 prepare delivery Sophia 2018/02/13 16:31:28.000 SAMSUNG Core Prime G361 135,00 € 1 NL-7828AM-11a 6204 make delivery Kaylee 2018/02/13 16:51:54.000 SAMSUNG Core Prime G361 135,00 € 1 NL-7828AM-11a 6265 confirm payment Lily 2018/02/13 16:55:55.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 4 NL-9521GC-32 6250 confirm payment Jack 2018/02/13 17:03:26.000 MOTOROLA Moto G 199,00 € 4 NL-7942GT-2 6328 send invoice Lily 2018/02/13 17:30:16.000 APPLE iPhone 6s 64 GB 858,00 € 4 NL-9514BV-16 6352 place order Aiden 2018/02/13 17:53:22.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 2 NL-9514BV-16 6317 send invoice Jack 2018/02/13 18:45:30.000 APPLE iPhone 6s 64 GB 858,00 € 5 NL-7907EJ-42 6353 place order Sophia 2018/02/13 20:16:20.000 APPLE iPhone 5s 16 GB 449,00 € 4 NL-7751AR-19 … … …. … … … … … event = case + activity + timestamp + …
- 12. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Let’s look at orders 6350, 6351, and 6352 Case ID Activity Timestamp 6350 place order 2018/02/13 14:29:45.000 6351 place order 2018/02/13 16:17:37.000 6352 place order 2018/02/13 17:53:22.000 6352 send invoice 2018/02/19 09:20:28.000 6351 send invoice 2018/02/19 16:08:07.000 6350 send invoice 2018/02/21 09:38:16.000 6350 pay 2018/03/02 12:39:37.000 6352 pay 2018/03/05 15:46:47.000 6351 cancel order 2018/03/06 10:17:01.000 6350 prepare delivery 2018/03/07 13:50:35.000 6350 make delivery 2018/03/07 16:41:01.000 6350 confirm payment 2018/03/07 16:53:00.000 6352 prepare delivery 2018/03/07 17:05:59.000 6352 confirm payment 2018/03/07 17:59:55.000 6352 make delivery 2018/03/08 09:54:36.000
- 13. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Let’s look at orders 6350, 6351, and 6352 Case ID Activity Timestamp 6350 place order 2018/02/13 14:29:45.000 6351 place order 2018/02/13 16:17:37.000 6352 place order 2018/02/13 17:53:22.000 6352 send invoice 2018/02/19 09:20:28.000 6351 send invoice 2018/02/19 16:08:07.000 6350 send invoice 2018/02/21 09:38:16.000 6350 pay 2018/03/02 12:39:37.000 6352 pay 2018/03/05 15:46:47.000 6351 cancel order 2018/03/06 10:17:01.000 6350 prepare delivery 2018/03/07 13:50:35.000 6350 make delivery 2018/03/07 16:41:01.000 6350 confirm payment 2018/03/07 16:53:00.000 6352 prepare delivery 2018/03/07 17:05:59.000 6352 confirm payment 2018/03/07 17:59:55.000 6352 make delivery 2018/03/08 09:54:36.000 place order send invoice pay prepare delivery make delivery confirm payment place order send invoice cancel order place order send invoice pay prepare delivery confirm payment make delivery order 6350 order 6351 order 6352
- 14. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Using the whole event log Case ID Activity Timestamp 6350 place order 2018/02/13 14:29:45.000 6351 place order 2018/02/13 16:17:37.000 6352 place order 2018/02/13 17:53:22.000 6352 send invoice 2018/02/19 09:20:28.000 6351 send invoice 2018/02/19 16:08:07.000 6350 send invoice 2018/02/21 09:38:16.000 6350 pay 2018/03/02 12:39:37.000 6352 pay 2018/03/05 15:46:47.000 6351 cancel order 2018/03/06 10:17:01.000 6350 prepare delivery 2018/03/07 13:50:35.000 6350 make delivery 2018/03/07 16:41:01.000 6350 confirm payment 2018/03/07 16:53:00.000 6352 prepare delivery 2018/03/07 17:05:59.000 6352 confirm payment 2018/03/07 17:59:55.000 6352 make delivery 2018/03/08 09:54:36.000 place order send invoice pay prepare delivery make delivery confirm payment place order send invoice cancel order place order send invoice pay prepare delivery confirm payment make delivery 8016 x 1651 x 2962 x place order pay send invoice prepare delivery make delivery confirm payment place order pay send invoice prepare delivery confirm payment make delivery 30 x 7 x
- 15. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Using the whole event log place order send invoice pay prepare delivery make delivery confirm payment place order send invoice cancel order place order send invoice pay prepare delivery confirm payment make delivery 8016 x 1651 x 2962 x place order pay send invoice prepare delivery make delivery confirm payment place order pay send invoice prepare delivery confirm payment make delivery 30 x 7 x
- 16. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Performance and Compliance What happens? Where are the bottlenecks? Where do we deviate from the happy path?
- 17. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) process discovery conformance checking root-cause analysis performance analysis predictive process analytics decision mining organization/social network mining automated process improvement responsible process mining
- 18. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Main inhibitors • People − Unawareness − Lack of training − Avoiding transparency • Data − Data quality − Data management
- 19. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Process mining is different data mining neural network “dog” gender age smoker car brand claim female 47 yes Volvo no male 31 no Alfa Romeo yes male 59 no Alfa Romeo yes male 28 no Fiat no male 44 no BMW no female 27 no Fiat no male 29 no Subaru no … … .. … … “claim”
- 20. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Future “towards better processes”
- 21. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) From backward looking to forward looking
- 22. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Seamless integration of process discovery and conformance checking (using hybrid process models)
- 23. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Better support for comparative process mining
- 24. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Better analysis of causality to suggest improvements rather than reinforcing correlations
- 25. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Making process mining results actionable (e.g., the RPA connection)
- 26. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) Increasing attention for responsible process mining (ensuring fairness and protecting confidentiality)
- 27. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) The process mining discipline is rapidly growing and maturing
- 28. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements) International Conference on Process Mining Aachen, June 23-25, 2019 Supported by Celonis as platinum sponsor