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rallyimpacts-161028133026.pptx
- 1. Ecosystem Response to ClimateChange Big question: How is the place you care about vulnerable to climate change?
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- 5. Warmer Temperatures Figure: Walshet al. 2014 (NCA) • Temperature has increased 1.3°F to 1.9°F since 1895 in the US – Greater increases in the north – Greater increases in recent decades
- 6. Altered Precipitation Figure: Walshet al. 2014 (NCA), glisa.umich.edu • Changes variable by geography and season – More extreme rainfall events, especially in the east Annual precipitation Extreme precipitation
- 7. Sea-level Rise • Sealevel rose about 1 foot since 1900 • Increases in coastal flooding Adapted from J. Boothroyd, Univ. of Rhode Island www.climate.gov/news-features/features/rhode-islands-rising-tide Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge Increased about 10” over last 100 years
- 8. Other Observed Changes WarmerWater/Reduced Ice Cover 71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010) Altered Soil Temperature and Frost Fewer soil frost days Altered freeze-thaw cycles Longer Growing Seasons Arrive weeks earlier More days with leaves Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)
- 9. And Everything Else Climateis not the complete story, but the story’s not complete without it. Shifley et al. 2014
- 10. How is theclimate expected to change over the next century?
- 11. Future Changes: InherentUncertainty Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
- 12. Warmer Temperatures Figure: K.Kunkel 2013 (NCA) Annual Temperature • Temperature rises of 3.0°F and greater – Greater increases in the north – Greater increases with higher emissions – More extreme hot – Less extreme cold
- 13. Altered precipitation Winter Precipitation •Greater uncertainty – Winter: wetter in northern regions Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
- 14. Altered precipitation Summer Precipitation •Greater uncertainty – Winter: wetter in northern regions – Summer: uncertain, but potentially drier due to warmer temperatures – More extreme events Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
- 15. Drier Conditions Figures: K.Kunkel 2013 (NCA) and Wehner et al. 2011 (adapted for NCA) Consecutive Dry Days Extreme Drought
- 16. Sea-level Rise • Continuedincreases of multiple feet • Enhanced storm surge Projected of areas affected by sea level rise along Rhode Island sea coast Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/
- 17. How could ecosystems beaffected?
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- 19. Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity:Increased productivity from CO2 – Increased photosynthesis – Increased water use efficiency Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
- 20. Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity:Increased productivity* – Increased photosynthesis – Increased water use efficiency *Effect likely limited: – Limited sink strength – Interactions with nitrogen – Ozone damage – Other reductions in productivity (e.g., moisture stress, disturbance) Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
- 21. Longer Growing Seasons Warmertemps result in longer growing seasons • Evidence of phenological shifts • Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth Melillo et al. 2014 (NCA), Nelson Center 2014
- 22. Longer Growing Seasons Warmertemps result in longer growing seasons • Evidence of phenological shifts • Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality • Early bud break/loss of cold hardening • Frost damage during spring freezing
- 23. Shorter Winter =LessSnow Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth 30-70% decreases in snowfall in eastern US by end of century Low emissions High emissions Figure: Notaro et al. 2014; https://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/
- 24. Shorter Winter =LessSnow Challenge: Decreased snowpack • Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps • Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes • Altered soil water recharge Campbell et al. 2009, Groffman et al. Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015
- 25. Shorter Winter =LessSnow , More R ain Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain
- 26. Shorter Winter =LessSnow , More R ain Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain Challenge: Altered stream flow timing and amount • Earlier spring peak flows • Potential increases in flashiness and episodic high flows • Potential declines in summer seasonal stream flow
- 27. Longer Growing Season+Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation
- 28. Longer Growing Season+Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Warmer temps increase water loss
- 29. Longer Growing Season+Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Water loss from soils (evaporation) Runoff Precipitation Warmer temps increase water loss
- 30. Changes in HabitatSuitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
- 31. Changes in HabitatSuitability Habitat based on: • Temperature • Precipitation • Elevation • Latitude • Soils • Slope & Aspect • Land use • Competition • Management
- 32. Changes in HabitatSuitability Habitat based on: • Temperature • Precipitation • Elevation • Latitude • Soils • Slope & Aspect • Land use • Competition • Management Climate Change Atlas: What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes? •134 Trees •147 Birds Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 33. Changes in HabitatSuitability 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High High Sugar Maple Current Distribution Importance Value Low Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 34. Changes in HabitatSuitability 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High High White Oak Current Distribution Importance Value Low Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 35. Changes in HabitatSuitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species • Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future • Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback • Mature and established trees should fare better • Immense lags to occupy habitats • Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance
- 36. Extreme Events Challenge: Increaseddisturbance from extreme events • Heavy precipitation • Ice storms • Heat waves/droughts • Wind storms • Hurricanes • “Events” are not well modeled VTRANS/VT ANR NY DEC Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept.
- 37. Interactions: Wildfire Challenge: Increasedwildfire potential Figure: K. Hayhoe 2013 (NCA)
- 38. Interactions: Wildfire • Warmer/driersummers • Increased stress or mortality from less suitable conditions • Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines • Spring/early summer moisture • Current regeneration of more mesic species • Land use and fragmentation • Fire suppression Challenge: Increased wildfire potential Fire may increase: Fire may not change:
- 39. Interactions: Insectsand Disease •Pests migrating northward • Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures • Accelerated lifecycles Challenge: Increased pests and forest diseases Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility Direct: Hemlock woolly adelgid lethal temp: -20 to -30°F Figure: NCA
- 40. Interactions: InvasivePlants Challenge: Increasedinvasive & noxious plants Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success Direct: • Expanded ranges under warmer conditions • Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2 Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)
- 41. Interactions: Unexpected Responses Figure(white box): Northern Rockies Fire Science Network Human actions
- 42. Effects on Ecosystems GenerallyChallenges Generally Opportunities • Reduced growth: moisture stress • Decline of northern/boreal species • Disturbance from extreme events • Wildfire potential • Forests pests & disease • Invasive species • Increased productivity: longer growing season • Increased productivity: more CO2 • Increased habitat for some species What would you add?
- 43. Local Considerations Research andassessments describe broad trends but local conditions make the difference.