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Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
The document discusses the challenges and research needs for advancing integrated crop-livestock-tree systems amidst declining nutritional content in cereals and rising food insecurity. It highlights the importance of climate-smart agriculture, innovative financial products, and partnerships to support resilience in agro-value chains. Additionally, it emphasizes the necessity for integrated metrics for decision-making and the role of science in adaptive governance of social-ecological systems.
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Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
- 1. Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-‐ livestock-‐tree systems Henry Neufeldt World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
- 5. Nutritional content ofglobal cereal supply has declined as production has increased since 1960. DeFries et al. Science 2015;349:238-240 Published by AAAS Intensifica<on has spared 18 to 27 million hectares that would have been required to produce the same amount of cereals with yields equivalent to those in the mid-‐1960s. But intensifica<on can exacerbate land-‐clearing in the absence of appropriate policies and enforcement. Moreover, intensifica<on relies on high inputs of energy, fer<lizer, pes<cides, and water.
- 6. -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Years RealGDPgrowth(%) -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 VariabilityinRainfall(Meter) Real GDPgrow th(%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe Correla8on between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe
- 7. • Farmers most interested in reducing food insecurity • No long-‐ or medium-‐term planning possible under food insecure situa<on • Tree plan<ng (and other investments in livelihood improvements) only aTer basic food security is guaranteed • Food insecurity rose by at least one month (above on average 3 months) during drought and flooding • Coping strategies lead into ‘poverty trap’ • Agroforestry reduced food insecurity by about 1 month All #s in % Reduce Quan<ty, Quality or # of meals Comm-‐ unity or family support Help from Gov, NGO, Church Borrow money Casual Labor Sell possess-‐ ions or livestock Consume Seeds Children a^end school less Lower Nyando 85 30 42 32 28 72 72 38 Middle Nyando 38 23 18 37.5 25 40 61 12.5 Farmer climate coping strategies Thorlakson and Neufeldt 2012
- 8. Climate change impacts on yields
- 9. 2°C 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2010 2040 20702100 shareofworldGDP 3°C 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2010 2040 2070 2100 shareofworldGDP Extra costs without adaptation Adaptation costs Mitigation costs Residual damages Baseline 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2010 2040 2070 2100 shareofworldGDP Globally, residual damages can be limited with 2 degrees and adapta<on (Source: Hof et al., 2010)
- 10. Photos: Yann Arthus-Bertrand Humanity’s provisioningat the land water energy nexus and “safe(r) space”
- 11. What will we call the boundaries of Safe(r) opera8ng spaces for the food systems? Beddington et al, 2012. Science And how will we nest scales effec<vely and efficiently?
- 12. Short term Long term Food security Mi<ga<on Adapta<on Small scales Large scales Climate-‐smart agriculture Efficiency Fairness Food Systems
- 13. Presenter ICLT systems/ prac8ces Labor demand Land area available Degree of mechaniza8on Scalability? Luis Alvarez Welchez Sistema Quesungual High Low Low Low? Tilahun Amede CLS in SSA Rainwater management Micro dosing High High High Medium Low L to H Low Low to high Low Medium? High High Paulo Herrmann iLPF (ICLF) in Brazil Low High High High Muhammad Ibrahim Live fences Mul<strata systems Silvopastoral systems Medium High High Low Low Medium Low Low Low Medium Low Medium? Paul Burges Dehasa Montado Bocage Wood pastures Intercropping Grazed orchards Alley cropping Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium? Medium High
- 14. Sustainability Challenges –Land Use Food vs. Fuel Pastoral Land Use Biodiversity Watershed Land Use – Socioeconomic & Environmental Sustainability
- 15. Innova8on and food security Rela<onship between innova<veness (number of farming system changes) and household food security (number of food deficit months). Error bars indicate the 95% confidence interval of the mean Kristjanson et al 2012
- 16. Financial benefits of no-‐<ll wheat produc<on in northern Kasakhstan Derpsch et al 2010
- 17. Researching, learning, impac8ng together! hQps://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostRecent=&trk=&gid=6657402 hQp://ccsl.wikispaces.com/Sandbox h^p://thedata.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/CCAFSbaseline/faces/ StudyLis<ngPage.xhtml;jsessionid=efc0985167adbf520e185e5a39b1?mode=1&collec<onId=4844
- 18. Effects of tenure on land management
- 19. Constraints: insecure tenure Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts Unadjud Freehold Tenure Effect Net returns to land ($ ha-‐1 y-‐1 ) $126 $288 2.28 Woody crops, woodlots etc (ha km-‐2 ) 5.4 25.6 4.7 Hedgerows (km km-‐2 ) 5.2 23.6 4.5 Social cost from embedding -‐$40 $30 $70 Social "tax" -‐32% +10% Norton-‐Griffiths 2012
- 20. Priority Ac8ons: v Improve networking and partnership building for climate adapta<on along the value chain by strengthening exis<ng plaoorms at all levels and explore the role of market incen<ves in suppor<ng such ac<vi<es, v Develop new, flexible financial products to support climate-‐resilient and inclusive agro-‐value chains through capacity building and innova<ve public-‐private partnerships, v I n v e s t i n c l i m a t e -‐ r e s i l i e n t infrastructures such as roads, irriga<on systems, storage facili<es and telecommunica<ons should remain a top priority to support agro-‐value chain development and build produc<ve capaci<es in a changing climate. CRCV ini<a<ve Value chains: a case of climate-‐resilient coffee (2)
- 23.
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- 25. – Moving from sex disaggregated diagnos<c research towards informing, catalyzing and targe<ng adapta<on and mi<ga<on solu<ons to women – Finding: Gender norms must be addressed to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals Gender and inclusion for resilience
- 26. • Can we predict what makes integrated crop-‐livestock-‐tree systems scalable? • How can we incen<vize the adop<on of ICLTS through horizontal and ver<cal scaling? • What are the metrics we need to characterize system proper<es at appropriate scales? • How can we support decision-‐makers (at all relevant scales) in making be^er decisions?
- 27. Evergreen agriculture with Faidherbia albida
- 28. Sendzimir et al 2011
- 29. GHG mi<ga<on through agroforestry by regions Region Annual rate 2000-‐2010 2011-‐2030 (Mt CO2/yr) (Mt CO2) (Mt CO2) North America 24.6 270 491 Central America 10.1 111 201 South America 157.3 1,730 3,145 Europe 7.2 79 144 N Africa + W Asia 2.7 29 53 Sub-‐Saharan Africa 10.0 110 201 N + Central Asia -‐4.0 -‐44 -‐79 South Asia 23.5 258 469 South-‐East Asia 23.8 262 477 East Asia 36.2 398 723 Oceania 19.2 211 384 Globe 262.8 2,891 5,256 % Gt CO2/yr 0 0.26 20 0.37 25 0.39 30 0.41 50 0.47
- 35. "The landscape approach has been championed by organiza<ons ac<ve in the development and conserva<on sectors for many years, though the concept has been slow to migrate into mainstream corporate thinking. Now this report from the Landscape for People, Food and Nature Ini<a<ve, sets out a case for companies to think about their business in landscape terms." -‐ José Lopez, Execu?ve Vice President, Opera?ons, Nestlé S.A. Connec<ng commodi<es to landscapes through public-‐private-‐civic partnerships SBSTA 40, 6 June 2014 Gabrielle Kissinger Lexeme Consulting
- 36. Agribusinesses and food sector response to sustainability risks from field to landscape Connec<ng commodi<es to landscapes through public-‐private-‐civic partnerships SBSTA 40, 6 June 2014 Gabrielle Kissinger Lexeme Consulting
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- 44. INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY AGROECOSYSTEM ASSETS Mi<ga<on Economic changes Buffer filter Abundant Limited Fragile Robust Strong Weak External drivers, hasards and exposure PATHWAY Time 1 à Time 2 SCENARIOS A. Different driver B. Same asset Less vulnerable More vulnerable UNCERTAINTY CLOUD Indicator -‐ AE 1 -‐ AE2 -‐ AE3 -‐ … -‐ AEN Indicator -‐ A1 -‐ A2 -‐ A3 -‐ A4 -‐ … -‐ AN Indicator -‐ I1 -‐ I2 -‐ I3 -‐ … -‐ IN Reduced Risk Increased Risk Based on Fraser et al, 2011
- 45. Agreement on goals/values No agreement on goals/values High uncertainty Low uncertainty The role of science and research in complex systems Straighoorward design Providing arguments Monitor emerging change Collabora<ve ac<on research Study diversity Experiment with mul<ple op<ons Extracted from Leeuwis, 2014 Complex systems thinking
- 46. Discovery, tes<ng and implementa<on of mechanisms across scales that allow for adap<ve management and adap<ve governance of social-‐ecological systems essen<al for long-‐term human provisioning Development of integrated metrics of safe space that are prac<cal and meaningful for decision-‐making by relevant communi<es in near real <me Systema<c gathering and integra<on of quality data and informa<on to generate knowledge in <me frames and at scales relevant for decision-‐making through analy<cal tools, models and scenarios Establishment of legi<mate and empowered science policy dialogues that frame post–disciplinary science agendas on local, na<onal and interna<onal scales Key areas of science innova<on Neufeldt et al 2013, Agriculture and Food Security
- 47. Research for the advancement of integrated crop-‐livestock-‐tree systems will need to become more integrated, post-‐disciplinary and systems oriented
- 48. Thanks for a future