Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Impeachment Tracker (11/27/2019)

Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Impeachment Tracker (11/27/2019)

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  © 2019 Ipsos1 Core Political Data NOVEMBER 27, 2019 Ipsos Poll Conducted for Thomson Reuters © 2019 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos'Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
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  © 2019 Ipsos2 For the survey, a sample of 1,118 Americans including 482 Democratic Registered Voters 359 Republican Registered Voters 93 Independent Registered Voters 18+ ages w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e 971 Registered Voters These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for date November 25-26, 2019 Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
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  © 2019 Ipsos3 Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. 3.3 All Adults 5.1 Democratic Registered Voters 5.9 Republican Registered Voters 11.6 Independent Registered Voters 3.6 All Registered Voters
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  © 2019 Ipsos4 • The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by: – Gender – Age – Education – Ethnicity – Region • Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. • All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. • Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. • Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. • To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/ Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
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  © 2019 Ipsos5 Right Direction/Wrong Track ALL ADULT AMERICANS Right Direction Wrong Track Don’t know 31% 56% 13% All Adults Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? 32% 57% 11% All Registered Voters 11% 81% 8% Democratic Registered Voters 61% 27% 12% Republican Registered Voters 24% 53% 23% Independent Registered Voters
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  © 2019 Ipsos6 Most Important Problem Facing America ALL ADULT AMERICANS All Adults All Registered Voters Democratic Registered Voters Republican Registered Voters Independent Registered Voters Economy generally 11% 12% 13% 13% 6% Unemployment / lack of jobs 5% 4% 5% 3% 4% War / foreign conflicts 3% 2% 2% 4% 0% Immigration 13% 15% 6% 26% 10% Terrorism / terrorist attacks 7% 7% 4% 10% 9% Healthcare 21% 22% 30% 13% 19% Energy issues 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Morality 8% 9% 7% 9% 10% Education 4% 4% 5% 4% 2% Crime 5% 4% 4% 3% 9% Environment 7% 7% 11% 4% 6% Other 9% 10% 10% 7% 16% Don’t know 5% 3% 2% 3% 7% In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
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  © 2019 Ipsos7 Most Important Problem Facing America ALL ADULT AMERICANS In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today? 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Economy generally Unemployment / jobs Healthcare Terrorism Immigration
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  © 2019 Ipsos8 Donald Trump’s Approval ALL ADULT AMERICANS Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”) All Adults Registered Voters Democratic Registered Voters Republican Registered Voters Independent Registered Voters Strongly approve 21% 23% 3% 48% 18% Somewhat approve 16% 17% 6% 30% 22% Lean towards approve 3% 3% 1% 4% 5% Lean towards disapprove 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% Somewhat disapprove 11% 10% 12% 8% 8% Strongly disapprove 42% 43% 75% 7% 40% Not sure 5% 3% 1% 2% 8% TOTAL APPROVE 41% 43% 10% 82% 45% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 54% 54% 89% 16% 48%
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  © 2019 Ipsos9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 41% 54% Donald Trump’s Weekly Approval ALL ADULT AMERICANS Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
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  © 2019 Ipsos10 Perceptions on Impeachment ALL ADULT AMERICANS Which of the following comes closest to your opinion? All Adults Registered Voters Democratic Registered Voters Republican Registered Voters Independent Registered Voters President Trump should be impeached 47% 47% 80% 12% 36% President Trump should NOT be impeached 40% 42% 10% 79% 46% Don't know 13% 11% 10% 10% 17%
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  © 2019 Ipsos11 Impeachment Tracker ALL ADULT AMERICANS Which of the following comes closest to your opinion? 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% President Trump should NOT be impeached President Trump should be impeached 40% 47%
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  © 2019 Ipsos12 Political Identity 17% 20% 8% 8% 16% 14% 10% 8% 36% 30% 44% 38% 10% 8% Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent Other/Don't know/Refused Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Independent Other/None/Don't know Party ID Party ID w/ Lean ALL ADULT AMERICANS With which political party do you most identify?
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  © 2019 Ipsos13 How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals APPENDIX The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (ത𝑌) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π( 𝜃 𝑦 )~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π ( 𝜃 𝑦 ). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: ഥ𝑌 ∓ 1 𝑛
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  © 2019 Ipsos14 FOR THIS POLL The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below: How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals APPENDIX SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS 2,000 2.5 1,500 2.9 1,000 3.5 750 4.1 500 5.0 350 6.0 200 7.9 100 11.2 1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin,Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100.
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  © 2019 Ipsos15 ABOUT IPSOS Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos is listed on Eurolist – NYSE – Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com GAME CHANGERS At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We deliver information and analysis that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions. We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do. Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly call things into question, to be creative. By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability and desire to influence and shape the future. “GAME CHANGERS” – our tagline – summarises our ambition.