Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (12/20/2017)

Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (12/20/2017)

• 1.
  © 2017 Ipsos1 Core Political Data 12.20.2017 Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters © 2017 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
• 2.
  © 2017 Ipsos2 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for date December 15-19, 2017 For the survey, a sample of 2,492 Americans including 1,089 Democrats 764 Republicans 336 Independents 18+ ages w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
• 3.
  © 2017 Ipsos3 The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. 2.2 for all adults 3.4 Democrats 4.0 Republicans 6.1 Independents Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
• 4.
  © 2017 Ipsos4 The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:• Gender– Age– Education– Ethnicity– Region– Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.• All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to• coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than• one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to• 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit:• http://polling.reuters.com/ Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
• 5.
  © 2017 Ipsos5 Right Direction/Wrong Track ALL ADULT AMERICANS 27% 61% 12% Right Direction Wrong Track Don’t Know All Adults 10% 83% 6% 57% 33% 10% 23% 64% 13% Democrats Republicans Independents Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
• 6.
  © 2017 Ipsos6 Main Problem Facing America ALL ADULT AMERICANS Total Democrat Republican Independent Economy generally 11% 10% 13% 14% Unemployment / lack of jobs 7% 6% 5% 8% War / foreign conflicts 6% 7% 4% 5% Immigration 6% 2% 12% 5% Terrorism / terrorist attacks 15% 10% 23% 14% Healthcare 17% 22% 12% 15% Energy issues 1% 1% 1% 0% Morality 9% 7% 13% 10% Education 5% 7% 4% 3% Crime 6% 6% 5% 7% Environment 4% 6% 2% 4% Don’t know 4% 2% 2% 7% Other 10% 14% 5% 9% In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
• 7.
  © 2017 Ipsos7 Main Problem Facing America ALL ADULT AMERICANS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Economy Generally Unemployment / jobs Healthcare Terrorism Immigration 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
• 8.
  © 2017 Ipsos8 Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”) Total Democrat Republican Independent Strongly approve 18% 5% 41% 12% Somewhat approve 14% 4% 31% 15% Lean towards approve 3% 1% 4% 4% Lean towards disapprove 2% 1% 2% 3% Somewhat disapprove 12% 12% 9% 15% Strongly disapprove 46% 75% 11% 42% Not sure 5% 2% 2% 8% TOTAL APPROVE 35% 10% 76% 31% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 60% 88% 22% 60% DONALD TRUMP ALL ADULT AMERICANS
• 9.
  © 2017 Ipsos9 Weekly Approval ALL ADULT AMERICANS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% JAN20-24,2017 JAN27-31,2017 FEB3-7,2017 FEB10-14,2017 FEB17-21,2017 FEB24-28,2017 MARCH3-7,2017 MARCH10-14,2017 MARCH17-21,2017 MARCH24-28,2017 MARCH31-APRIL4,2017 APRIL13-17,2017 APRIL21-25,2017 APRIL28-MAY2,2017 MAY5-9,2017 MAY12-16,2017 MAY19-23,2017 MAY26-30,2017 JUNE2-6,2017 JUNE9-13,2017 JUNE16-20,2017 JUNE21-27,2017 JUNE30-JULY4,2017 JULY7-11,2017 JULY14-18,2017 JULY21-25,2017 JULY28-AUG1,2017 AUG4-8,2017 AUG11-15,2017 AUG18-22,2017 AUG25-29,2017 SEPT1-5,2017 SEPT8-12,2017 SEPT15-19,2017 SEPT22-26,2017 SEPT29-OCT3,2017 OCT6-10,2017 OCT13-17,2017 OCT20-24,2017 OCT27-31,2017 NOV3-7,2017 NOV10-14,2017 NOV17-21,2017 NOV24-28,2017 DEC1-5,2017 DEC8-12,2017 DEC15-19,2017 35% 60%
• 10.
  © 2017 Ipsos10 Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted 6/1/2017 to 11/30/2017 among 67,285; arrows represent changes of plus or minus 3 percentage points from 5/1/2017 thru 10/31/2017 based on change in color bracket. Color scale represents degree of Trump approval, with each color corresponding to varying degrees of job approval from over 55% approval to under 35% approval Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Approval by State (June – November 2017) ALL ADULT AMERICANS Drop in approval Increase in approval No change
• 11.
  © 2017 Ipsos11 Do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE The US economy 18% 13% 11% 8% 8% 35% 7% 41% 51% US foreign policy 15% 12% 10% 9% 7% 39% 9% 36% 55% Healthcare reform 14% 12% 10% 8% 7% 41% 8% 36% 57% Employment and jobs 19% 12% 12% 10% 8% 32% 7% 43% 49% Dealing with Congress 13% 12% 10% 10% 8% 38% 9% 35% 56% Dealing with ISIS / ISIL 19% 11% 12% 8% 8% 33% 9% 42% 49% International trade 16% 10% 12% 9% 8% 35% 11% 38% 51% Taxation 14% 13% 9% 9% 7% 40% 9% 36% 56% Corruption 13% 11% 9% 9% 6% 41% 10% 34% 57% The environment 12% 10% 11% 10% 6% 41% 10% 33% 57% Immigration 20% 10% 9% 7% 7% 41% 6% 39% 55% The way he treats people like me 14% 9% 10% 8% 7% 45% 8% 32% 60% The effort he is making to unify the country 15% 11% 10% 9% 6% 42% 7% 36% 57% Approval Attributes ALL ADULT AMERICANS
• 12.
  © 2017 Ipsos12 Of the following White House or Executive Branch staff members, who do you believe will be the next to resign or be terminated? Will it be... White House Exits ALL ADULT AMERICANS Yes Rex Tillerson, Secretary of State 18% Jeff Sessions, Attorney General 16% Sarah Sanders, Press Secretary 8% Kellyanne Conway, Senior Counselor 8% John F. Kelly, Chief of Staff 6% Mike Pence, Vice President 6% Steve Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary 5% Hope Hicks, Director of Strategic Communications 4% Stephen Miller, Senior Advisor for Policy 4% James Mattis, Secretary of Defense 4% H.R. McMaster, National Security Advisor 3% Gary Cohn, Director of White House Economic Council 3% Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce 2%
• 13.
  © 2017 Ipsos13 Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way your Congressperson is handling their job as Representative? Congressional Approval Split Sampled ALL ADULT AMERICANS Total Democrat Republican Independent Strongly approve 11% 14% 10% 8% Somewhat approve 31% 31% 43% 24% Somewhat disapprove 21% 22% 21% 23% Strongly disapprove 16% 17% 11% 20% Don’t know 22% 17% 15% 26% TOTAL APPROVE 42% 45% 53% 32% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 36% 38% 32% 42% Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Congress as a whole is handling its job? Total Democrat Republican Independent Strongly approve 4% 4% 6% 3% Somewhat approve 17% 12% 24% 16% Somewhat disapprove 32% 31% 37% 32% Strongly disapprove 36% 46% 28% 30% Don’t know 11% 7% 5% 18% TOTAL APPROVE 21% 16% 30% 20% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 68% 77% 65% 62%
• 14.
  © 2017 Ipsos14 Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? Total Democrat Republican Independent Democratic candidate 39% 82% 4% 18% Republican candidate 27% 2% 77% 13% Candidate from another political party 4% 2% 2% 14% Will not/do not plan to vote 13% 6% 5% 25% Don’t know / Refused 17% 8% 12% 30% 2018 Generic Congressional Ballot Question ALL ADULT AMERICANS
• 15.
  © 2017 Ipsos15 All Adults: n= 2,492 Political Identity 17% 18% 8% 7% 14% 11% 14% 7% 5% 35% 24% 43% 31% 14% 12% Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Independent None/DK ALL ADULT AMERICANS Party ID Party ID w/ Lean
• 16.
  © 2017 Ipsos16 How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals APPENDIX The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
• 17.
  © 2017 Ipsos17 FOR THIS POLL The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below: How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals APPENDIX SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS 2,000 2.5 1,500 2.9 1,000 3.5 750 4.1 500 5.0 350 6.0 200 7.9 100 11.2 1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100.
• 18.
  © 2017 Ipsos18 ABOUT IPSOS Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos is listed on Eurolist – NYSE – Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com GAME CHANGERS At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We deliver information and analysis that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions. We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do. Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly call things into question, to be creative. By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability and desire to influence and shape the future. “GAME CHANGERS” – our tagline – summarises our ambition.