Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)

Turning plans into achievement:
the art of INDC implementation
Chris Dodwell
Director, International Projects
COP21 Side Event, OECD Pavilion
2nd December 2015

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Five pillars of INDC Implementation

Pillar 2 – Long-term mitigation strategies

Pillar 3 – Integrated Adaptation Planning

Pillar 4 – Climate finance frameworks

Pillar 5 – Measurement, Reporting and Verification systems

Pillar 1 – Political Governance & Effective Institutions

For more information
Chris Dodwell
Director, International Projects & Business Development
Ricardo Energy & Environment
30 Eastbourne Terrace
London
M: +44 7435 751 778
chris.Dodwell@ricardo.com

Stephen M King’uyu
National Climate Change Secretariat
Ministry of Environment & Natural Resources stephen.kinguyu@gmail.com/King_uyu@yahoo.com
www.kccap.info
Implementing the Paris Climate
Agreement: Kenya’s Experience
Ricardo-AEA Side Event
EU Pavilion - Le Bourget, Paris
02 Dec 2015

v
v
1. Introduction: Kenya’s INDC
• Kenya was among the first African Parties to submit an INDC to the
UNFCCC Secretariat.
• The INDC responds to Kenya's unique national circumstances:
– More than 80% of the country’s landmass is ASAL.
– Highly vulnerable to climate change - Increased frequency and
intensity of extreme climate events.
– Impacts already being experienced in different sectors.
– Droughts and floods which cause economic losses estimated at
3% of the country’s GDP; etc.
02Dec201512
Kenya’s INDC contains both mitigation and adaptation components:
• In line with Decision 1/CP.20.
• Highlighting Kenya's deliberate resolve to address adaptation and
mitigation on equal footing.
SMK/MENR© 2015

v
v
1. Kenya’s INDC (2)
The INDC:
 Is in line with Vision2030, Kenya’s blueprint for
development.
 Is anchored on the Constitution, (draft) National Climate
Change Framework Policy and Bill (2014).
 Builds on the foundation laid in the development of the
NCCAP 2013-2017 and NAP – coordination/MRV.
 Recognises that:
 Every stakeholder has a role in its implementation.
 Individual and corporate action - at all levels is required to
address climate change.
 All sectors are vulnerable – strategic sector adaptation actions.
02Dec201513 SMK/MENR© 2015

v
v
2. Stakeholders
INDC
Mwananchi
Private
Sector
Academia
GovernmentMedia
CSOs
Development
Partners
02Dec201514
Important to include every imaginable stakeholder!
SMK/MENR© 2015

2. NCCAP Components & output streams
02Dec2015
1. Low Carbon Climate Resilient Development Pathway
2. Enabling Policy and Regulatory Framework
3. ADAPTATION 4. MITIGATION
9.Coordination&Management
5. National
Technology
Action
Plan
6. National
Performance &
Benefit
Measurement
7. Knowledge
Management &
Capacity
Development
8. Finance
ENABLERS
15 SMK/MENR© 2015

v
v
Coordination
02Dec201516
National Government
Sectoral Agencies (MDAs)
Mainstreaming at National level
County
Governments
County Gov. Sectoral
Agencies (Mainstreaming at
County level)
County
Assemblies
MAINSTREAMING OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Council of
Governors
NEMA
Monitor & Enforce
Compliance
NCCC(Chair = President)
To provide overarching national climate
change coordination mechanism
Parliament
Enabling
Legislation
Climate Change Directorate
• Principal government agency on national climate
change actions and operational coordination
• To serve as the Secretariat to NCCC
Ministry (Climate Change Affairs)
CS = Secretary to NCCC
SMK/MENR© 2015

02Dec2015
Thank you!
17 SMK/MENR© 2015

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
Bangladesh
Dr. Kamal Uddin Ahmed
Secretary
Ministry of Environment and Forests

Bangladesh Context
• Bangladesh is a highly climate vulnerable country
and expose to severe climate threats.
• The costs of climate change could amount to an
annual loss of 2% of GDP by 2050 and 9.4% of
GDP by 2100.
• The future costs of adapting to climate change
will be much higher than they are today
• Bangladesh accounts for only 0.35% of global
emissions
• With this insignificant CO2 emission Bangladesh
wants to play its part in the global collective
action

0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
TonsofCO2percapita
Year
CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA PROJECTIONS
Bangladesh Developing Countries Average
Nationally-driven process
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GNIperCapita(currentUS$)
Year
GNI PER CAPITA PROJECTIONS
Bangladesh - GNI/capita (WB) Middle Income Threshold (GoB)
Middle-income country status by 2021
(Prospective Plan)
Stay below average per capita emission of
Developing Countries
(PM Statement in New York)
Source: Projections from World Bank Databank Source: Projections from World Bank Databank

Bangladesh INDC
• INDC builds on existing strategies and programmes
e.g. BCCSAP, Power Sector Master Plan, National
Sustainable Development Strategy, and forthcoming
NAP
• Bangladesh considered both Mitigation and
Adaptation in its INDC
• Adaptation- as urgent and immediate action to
address adverse impacts of climate change
• Mitigation- emission reduction of CO2 to achieve 1.5
degree or well below 2°C global goal of temperature
rise by 2100.

1. National
context
2. Mitigation
3. Adaptation
4. INDC
implementation
5. Support for
INDC
implementation
The structure of the INDC

Under ‘business-as-usual’, GHG emissions set to increase by 118% by 2030 from
2015 levels
2. Mitigation – BAU
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e) in 2015 and 2030
2015 2030 BAU
MODELLED GHG EMISSIONS TO 2030 – BUSINESS AS USUAL

• Quantified
contribution only
covers power,
transport and industry
sectors
• Unconditional
contribution = 5%
below BAU for those
sectors (12 MtCO2e by
2030)
• Conditional
contribution = 15%
below BAU for those
sectors (36 MtCO2e by
2030 )
Mitigation
MODELLED GHG EMISSIONS TO 2030 – CONSIDERED MITIGATION
0
50
100
150
200
250
GHG emissions (MtCO2e) to 2030
in Power, Transport, Industry (Energy Demand)
Conditional Contribution Unconditional Contribution
BAU Historic trends
15%5%

Estimated costs of key mitigation measures
Mitigation measure Estimated investment
required (billion USD, 2011-
2030)
Switching to 100% super-critical coal power generation 16.50
Developing utility-scale solar energy 1.30
Scaling up wind energy .60
Repowering steam turbine with CCGT .63
Expanding the Solar Homes Programme 1.20
Other solar Solar Irrigations Pumps .60
Solar Mini-grids .25
Solar Nano-grids .27
Pico-solar .10
Scaling up biomass production from sugar .20
Building an Elevated Express Highways in Dhaka for
decongestion of the main urban traffic arteries
2.65
Dhaka mass rapid transit system 2.70

Adaptation
• The primary goal for adaptation is to protect the
population, enhance their adaptive capacity and
livelihood options, and to protect the overall
development of the country in its stride for economic
progress and wellbeing of the people.
• Over the last three decades, the Government of
Bangladesh has invested over $10 billion (at constant
2007 prices) to make the country more climate
resilient and less vulnerable to natural disasters.

Estimated costs of key adaptation measures
Adaptation measure Estimated
investment required
(billion USD, 2015-
2030)
Food security and livelihood and health protection (incl.
water security)
8
Comprehensive disaster management 10
Salinity intrusion and coastal protection 3
River flood and erosion protection 6
Building climate resilient infrastructure 5
Rural electrification 3
Urban resilience 3
Ecosystem based adaptation (incl. forestry co-
management)
2.5
Community based conservation of wetlands and coastal
areas
1
Policy and institutional capacity building 0.5

Next Steps: INDC Implementation
• The submission of the INDCs should be seen as a
first step, rather than a final one. It is envisaged
that INDCs will be reviewed and updated on a
regular basis
• In Bangladesh, INDC implementation will be taken
forward by existing governance arrangements of
the government of Bangladesh.

INDC Implementation
Implementation of INDC will start with the
following key tasks
• Carrying out a review of Bangladesh’s current
climate finance landscape and support needs
and the international funding landscape
• Produce recommendations on an appropriate
climate finance strategy for Bangladesh.
• Appropriate strategy for both mitigation and
adaptation technology

INDC Implementation ……
• Listing potential mitigation interventions that
could be studied in more detail and developed
into NAMAs
• Carrying out a gap analysis of existing data sharing
and reporting structures and processes as well as
the appropriate form and structure of a national
MRV system.
• Set out a clear roadmap and timetable for actions
across the key elements of INDC implementation

INC submission – 1999
SNC submission – 2011
BUR submission – expected Dec 2014
TNC submission – expected Dec 2016
But also now with INDC

1. Introduction
2. National Circumstances
3. Adaptation
4. Mitigation
5. Fair and ambitious
6. Implementation

Uncondition
al
Target
 A reduction of 15% compared to the Business-As-Usual (BAU)
scenario in 2030.
 15% of the power and heat demand in 2030 is generated by
renewable energy sources
 A 3% reduction in power demand through energy-efficiency
measures in 2030 compared to the demand under the Business-
As-Usual scenario
Conditional
Target
 A reduction of 30% compared to the BAU scenario in 2030.
 20% of the power and heat demand in 2030 is covered by renewable
energy sources
 A 10% reduction in 2030 in power demand through energy-
efficiency measures compared to the demand under the BAU
scenario

Mitigation potentials and targets in the
INDC
BAU scenario and emission
trajectories under the mitigation
scenarios applying mitigation
targets stated in the INDC:
-Unconditional scenario: 15% by
2030
-Conditional scenario: 30% by
2030

• Unconditional:
• Share of person-
kilometres driven annual
using public transport
remains at 36% by 2030.
Actions include improving
the bus system in the
Greater Beirut Area
• Conditional:
• Share of person-kilometres driven annual using public transport increases to
48% by 2030. Achieved through infrastructure projects, including improving
the bus system in the Greater Beirut Area, introduction of a bus rapid transit
system and revitalization of the railway system.
• A share of 20% fuel efficient vehicles is to be achieved by 2030:
incentivisation activities, e.g. scrappage programmes

• Both scenarios: A waste to
energy plant with a capacity
of 1000 t/day is operational
by 2030
• Unconditional:
• A recycling rate of 25% is
achieved by 2030
• 51% of municipal
wastewater is treated by
2030
• Conditional:
• A recycling rate of 30% is achieved by 2030
• 70% of municipal wastewater is treated by 2030
• The share of wastewater treatment could even be higher if everything goes
according to plan

• 40 million trees
programme
• Unconditional: 50% of
the trees can be
planted by 2030
• Conditional: 65% of
the trees can be
planted by 2030
• Forest Management
Plan
• Forest Fire Fighting
Strategy

• Refurbishment, replacement and
extension of conventional power
generation capacities and fuel
switch to natural gas as laid
down in the 2010 Policy Paper
for the Electricity Sector.
• Energy efficiency measures
reducing energy demand in line
with the National Energy
Efficiency Action Plan 2016-2020
(NEEAP)
• Unconditional: 3% energy savings
compared to BAU in 2030
• Conditional: 10% energy savings
compared to BAU in 2030
• Use of renewable energy (RE)
sources in line with the Renewable
Energy Action Plan 2016-2020
(REAP)
• 12% of power and heat demand
supplied through renewable energy
sources in 2020 (NEEAP)
• Unconditional: 15% supplied through
RE in 2030 under the unconditional
scenario
2030
Targets!

No institutional arrangements for sharing data
between institutions
No breakdown of sectoral data (energy)
No involvement of private sector
Availability of ad-hoc, scattered and conflicting data
from various sources and for different purposes
(population, energy consumption of generators)
Mistrust in data exchange
No existing network/channel to manage flow of
information
Source
of
emissio
ns
Part of
the
solution

• INDC implementation planning (e.g., MRV)
• Implementation of mitigation and adaptation
actions
• Regular updating of the INDC (~5 years)
Plan
Imple
ment
Review
Update

Update database of industrial establishments
Add production, raw material use and energy
consumption data to reporting requirements
Systematically share database on a yearly
basis
MoI
 Improved
knowledge of the
industrial sector in
Lebanon
MoE
 Data needed for GHG inventory
systematically available/progress
on INDC
BENEFITS

MoFinance – online reporting for:
 Value added tax
 Income tax declaration
Categorised
(industries/institutional/commercial/etc.)
Represents a real opportunity on using
existing system by adding few reporting
requirements

Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)

Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)

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