RISK ATLAS DOC12.pdfdasdasdasdasdasdasdasdasd

About the Atlas
Hazard and risk assessments are the crucial first step in disaster risk management (DRM) and the basis for formulating DRM policies. They must take into account
worst-case scenarios in the event of the largest possible hazard, which are the areas at greater risk and who are the sections that are most likely to suffer their
brunt. The usefulness of hazard mapping may range from helping policy preparedness on DRM activities and even in preparation of ground level evacuation and
management plans. The visual representation of key components in vulnerability assessment through maps is thus a very important tool for dissemination,
integration and assimilation of key information related to risk and exposure. Maps are simple and comprehensive representation of ground reality. Mapping enables
a community to recognise its own weaknesses, resources, and capacities, important in changing the ultimate damage and loss scenario.
Framework Under Which the Atlas has been Developed
This atlas is published as part of the ongoing USAID-MHA-UNDP Partnership Project on “Developing Resilient Cities through Risk Reduction in the context of
Disaster and Climate Change” supported by USAID covering six cities of which one is ‘Navi Mumbai’. The project has two main objectives to (1) reduce disaster
risk in urban areas by enhancing institutional capacities to integrate climate risk reduction measures in development programmes as well as to undertake mitigation
activities based on scientific analysis; and (2) bettering preparedness among urban communities by increasing capacities to manage climate risks. One of the key
activities under the project is to conduct hazard risk and vulnerability assessments through an interactive and participatory process in Navi Mumbai which is prone
to natural and man-made disasters like floods, fire, industrial hazards, earthquake, road accidents, etc. This atlas compiles all the exposure and risk maps developed
with respect to each of these hazards, as part of all deliverables.
Under the project, specific activities have been planned to attain key results such as: City Disaster Management Plans, Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis,
training of government officials and communities to manage climate risks, action plans and pilots to strengthen Early Warning systems based on analytical studies,
enhanced public- private partnerships through pilot projects and climate change adaptation in development programmes and knowledge management.
Not only is flooding one of the most common and costly disasters, flood risk can also change over time because of new building and development, weather patterns
and other factors. Although the frequency or severity of impacts cannot be changed, FEMA is working with federal, state, tribal and local partners across the
nation to identify flood risk and promote informed planning and development practices to help reduce that risk through the Risk Mapping, Assessment and
Planning (Risk MAP) program
Risk MAP provides high quality flood maps and information, tools to better assess the risk from flooding and planning and outreach support to communities to
help them take action to reduce (or mitigate) flood risk. Each Risk MAP flood risk project is tailored to the needs of each community and may involve different
products and services. Learn more about the goals and long term vision of Risk Map, how the program works and what it means for you in the sections below.
i

Features of the Atlas
• The Atlas integrates information from both secondary and primary sources such as primary survey data of 2500 households across Navi Mumbai and data
provided by various departments at NMMC.
• The health and disease data is provided by the Health Department, NMMC and the fire data has been collated from record registers of the Fire Department,
Navi Mumbai
• The Atlas represents both point exposures and calculated risk scenarios.
• Risk assessment model is based on DALA framework & for Damage assessment is based on Plinth Area method.
• The maps have been developed using SWMM 5, SWAT, etc.
Atlas Structure
This atlas broadly covers two components of Disaster Risk Assessment protocol, i.e. Exposure Assessment and Risk Assessment. The atlas takes into account 3
hazard types, i.e. 1) Geophysical- Earthquakes and Landslides 2) Anthropogenic: Fire and Health Epidemics 3) Hydro- metrological: Floods and Urban Heat
Island effects. As per the above hazard types, the atlas is divided into 5 sections: a) Flood Exposure and Risk in Navi Mumbai b) Earthquake Exposure and Risk
in Navi Mumbai c) Fire Exposure in Navi Mumbai d) Social and Economic Vulnerability and Related Risk Maps e) Exposure to Urban Heat Island Effects in
Navi Mumbai.
As per the MOVE framework on which we base our vulnerability assessment approach:
 Exposure describes the extent to which a unit of assessment falls within the geographical range of a hazard event. Exposure extends to fixed physical
attributes of social systems as well as human systems.
 Risk is defined as the probability of harmful consequences or losses resulting from interactions between hazard and vulnerable conditions. It is the
potential for physical, social, economic, environmental, cultural or institutional consequences or losses, in a given area and over a period of time.
Possible Use of the Atlas
The proposed HRVA will be integrated with the results emanating from the other activities such as training of communities in the selected wards to respond to
disasters; preparation of action plans to strengthen Early Warning Systems in the cities based on analytical studies; sectoral plans in city to mainstream DRR and
Climate Change Adaptation in development programmes; and Knowledge Management. These would further help to understand the scope to mainstream Climate
Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) concerns in state, district and city level plans. The atlas would come around handy to disseminate
hazard risk and exposure related information, not only for the various departments at national, state and city level and all other stakeholders to mitigate risks
posed by various hazards. This document includes the projected climate change scenarios (short term, medium term and long term) taking into account the past
trends so that the recommended solutions and actions could be linked with the Disaster Management policy, sectoral planning and implementation of multi-
hazard risk mitigation initiatives at community, ward and city levels. This could also become an important reference point for basing other studies in the area of
disaster related risk and vulnerability assessment for this region.
ii

DISCLAIMER
INRM Consultants Pvt. Ltd hereby declare that this risk analysis is our own and autonomous research. This work has been submitted to Navi Mumbai Municipal
Corporation in order to have brief analysis of predictive critical zones for different hazardous scenarios and no information derived from it may be published
without the company’s prior consent.
iii

Sankalp Lahari Neha Kshirsagar
Dr. Pawan Kumar Rai Pallavi Joshi
Satish Kumar Amritansh Malviya
Copyright: Right to extract / translate any information from this report is reserved with the Authors alone.
Author’s or initial Contact with Respect to Report:
Email: info@inrm.co.in
Contact No.: +91 11 2685 2073
iv

I N D E X
1. Study Area - - - - - - - 1
2. Rapid Visual Survey Location &Socio-Economic Survey Location - - - - - - - 2
3. Government Hospital, UHP & Fire Sations in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 3
4. Water Resource Infrastructure & Social Facilities in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 4
HAZARD SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
A. Flood Exposure and Risk in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 5
A.1 Flood Extent Map for Different Return Period - - - - - - - 6
A.2 Predicted Industrial Damage Area for Different Return Period Flood - - - - - - - 7
A.3Total Affected Area in Navi Mumbai for Different Return Period Flood - - - - - - - 8
B. Earthquake Exposure and Risk in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 9
B.1 Floorwise Distribution of Building for Each Electoral Ward in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 10
B.2 Map of Estimated Injury & Mortality Scenarios Earthquake Mw = 6 & 6.5 - - - - - - - 11
B.3 Zonewise Injury & Mortality Scenarios Earthquake Mw = 6 & 6.5 - - - - - - - 12
C. Fire Exposure in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 13
C.1 Occurrence of Fire Cases [Class B, C, E, F] in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 14-16
D. Social and Economic Vulnerability and Related Risk Maps - - - - - - - 17
D.1 Composite Index - - - - - - - 18
D.2 Demographic and Social Vulnerability Index - - - - - - - 18
D.3 Economic Vulnerability Index - - - - - - - 19
D.4 Health Vulnerability Index - - - - - - - 19
D.5 Structural and Civic Vulnerability Index - - - - - - - 20
E Urban Heat Island - - - - - - - 21
E.1 Analysis of Urban Heat Islands in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 22

Socio-Economic Survey Location in Navi Mumbai
Rapid Visual Survey in Navi Mumbai
2
INRM Consultants Pvt. Ltd

Fire Stations in Navi Mumbai
Government Hospital, UHP Centers in Navi Mumbai
Total Existing
UHP Centers
22
Total Existing
Fire Stations
4
3

Social Facilities in Navi Mumbai
Water Resource Infrastructure in Navi Mumbai
Infrastructural Details of Navi-
Mumbai
Total No. of
Holding
Ponds
18
Total Length
of Nallah
99174 sq.m.
Area of Lake 128280 sq.km.
Length of
Railway
line
95572 sq.m.
No. of
Busstops
361
STP
Location
Airoli, Nerul &
Vashi Node
Total area
of Green
Space
742732 sq. m.
Total Area
of
Playground
541568 sq.m.
4

FLOOD EXPOSURE AND RISK IN NAVI MUMBAI
5

Yearwise Distribution of Total Affected Industrial area in Navi Mumbai
5 Year 10 Year 25 Year 50 Year 100 Year
1999259 sq.m. 4065140 sq.m. 7203611 sq.m. 10574404 sq.m. 11867420 sq.m.
7

0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Analysis of Flood Affected Area
for 100 Years Duration
5 year 10 year 25 year
50 year 100 year
It can be observed from map &
graphical analysis that : Ghansoli,
Airoli, Vashi & Belapur Nodes are
the critical flood zone & exhibits
Incremental Damage area
characteristics for 100 Years
Flood Return Period Analysis.
8

EARTHQUAKE EXPOSURE AND RISK IN NAVI MUMBAI
9

Magnitude
Losses (INR Crores)
Rehabilitation Infrastructure
6 890.4 94118.2
6.5 1352.4 94118.2
Map of Estimated Injury and Mortality Cases of Earthquake for Mw of 6 & 6.5
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
4.46
1.96
4.88
3.28
3.01
3.49
2.56
4.17
1.18
0.69
1.22 1.13 0.95 1.19
0.89 0.95
6.08
3.08
6.52 6.39
4.29
6.08
4.03
5.50
1.72
0.98
1.77
2.22
1.42
2.19
1.23 1.27
Comparative Analysis of Mortality & Injury
Rate for Mw =6 & 6.5
MW= 6 % Injuries Rate MW= 6 % Mortality Rate
MW=6.5 % Injuries Rate MW=6.5 % Mortality Rate
11

Affected Node/Wards Remark
Some Area near Parasic
hill in Airoli, Nerul and
Tubhe Node.
Critical Zone (Need
to Monitor )
Industrial area of
Turbhe &
Koparkhairane
Medium Zone
Eastern zone of Nerul,
Vashi and
Koparkhairane node
Low Zone
Zonewise Injury and Mortality Cases of Earthquake for Mw of 6 & 6.5
12

FIRE HAZARDS
13

Classification of Occurrence of Fire Hazards
14

Major Incidence of Class B Fire was observed in Turbhe followed by
Vashi & Koperkhairane Node.
Major Incidence of Class C Fire was observed in Koperkhairane in case of Gas
Cylinder leakage & Major incidence of Class C was identified in Turbhe Node.
15

Major Incidence of Class E Fire was observed in Vashi followed by
Koperkhairane & Turbhe Node.
Major Incidence of Class F Fire was observed in Vashi followed by Turbhe &
Koperkhairane Node.
16

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RISK MAPS
17

Note - CV: Composite Vulnerability, DSV: Demographic and Social Vulnerability, ECV:
Economic Vulnerability, SCV: Structural and Civic vulnerability, HLV: Health Vulnerability
Nodename
Rank
CVI CV SV ECV SCV HLV
Vashi 1 L H L L M
Koparkhairane 2 M M L M H
Airoli 3 M L H H L
Nerul 4 H M H H M
Turbhe 5 H VH M H L
Belapur 6 VH VH M VH M
Digha 7 VH H VH M VH
Ghansoli 8 VH VH M H H
Rank 1: least vulnerable
Rank 8: most vulnerable
1 L low vulnerability
2 M moderate vulnerability
3 H high vulnerability
4 VH very high vulnerability
20

URBAN HEAT ISLAND
21

Temperature
Change
Affected Node/Wards Remark
>7 Degree Partial area of Ghansoli, Belapur, Industrial
area of Turbhe & Koparkhairane
Critical Zone
(Need to Monitor
)
> 6 Degree Industrial area of Turbhe & Koparkhairane Medium Zone
>5 Degree 1.Maximum area of Digha, Turbhe &
Koparkhairane
2. Some Area near Parasic hill in
Airoli,Ghansoli & Belapur node
Low Zone
22

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