Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy by 2050

Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon
economy in 2050
European Sustainable Energy & Climate Policy | Friday 24th April 2015

1. Climate Change in Brief
2. Context of the Energy Roadmap
3. Understanding “Growth”
4. What Really is the Energy Roadmap
5. The Legal Basis for Energy at EU Level
6. Context of Progress and Cooperation
7. Conclusions, Next Steps and Questions
ummaryS

1. Climate Change in Brief
 Today’s policy and nomenclature:
- “Avoiding dangerous climate change” or “preventing dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system”
- The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change sets this
out in Article 2 as their overall objective
- “adapting” to climate change has a different meaning
 Today’s accepted goals:
- Limit average temperature rise to 2 degree Celsius (3.6 °F), relative to
pre-industrial levels
- (to achieve this) limit CO2 levels to 550 ppm in the atmosphere

Global CO2 Emissions from human activities
4

2. Context of the Energy Roadmap
Why does The EU need another Roadmap?
 Balancing positive effects and drawbacks requires extending the time
horizon. (slow but steady change – evolution vs revolution)
 To stay on track, need a long-term goal and vision
 This Roadmap is the overarching story, the umbrella (to be in line with
discussions at the global level):
- 2020 Package (targets of 20% 20% 20% by 2020)
- 2030 Framework (40% GHG, at least 27% RES, at least 27% EE)
- Emissions Trading System (reviewed in context of other climate policy)
- Transport, Low-carbon technology, F-Gas
- New initiative by the Juncker Commission: Energy Union (4th pillar is
“decarbonisation of the economy”)

3. Understanding Growth
 Growth is commonly overlooked
 Bombarded with phrases including bot not limited to..“jobs and growth”
“economic growth” “return to growth” “growth vs austerity”
 “Growth” is something that expands steadily over time, and thus most
commonly stated as “x percent growth per unit of time”, e.g. “4% / year”
 And because it is steady over time, it compounds, and when looking at it on
a graph, it seems to accelerate (even if the rate of change in fact has not
changed)
 Shorthand for putting it in perspective when faced with “growth”
- Calculating doubling time (divide 70 by the growth rate per year, e.g. 7%/yr
growth means a doubling time of roughly 10 years)
 Even very slow growth eventually goes exponential (by definition)

3. Understanding growth – “the hockey stick”

4. What really is the Energy Roadmap
 To mitigate climate change, the EU needs a long term goal
 Europe needs to accelerate its progress towards a low-carbon society in
order to reach the target of an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050.
 The Roadmap sets out a cost-efficient pathway to reach this target, where
all sectors will have to contribute.
 Interim targets:
- 40% below 1990 level by 2030
- 60% by 2040
 Emission reductions will be stepped up gradually from approximately 1
percentage point (compared to 1990) per year in the first decade, 1.5
percentage points in the second decade until 2030, to 2 percentage points
in the last two decades until 2050

 The Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy shows how the effort of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions should be divided cost-effectively
between different economic sectors. All sectors will have to contribute
according to their technological and economic potential.

 The Commission's economic analysis shows that the EU could outperform
the current 20% emission reduction target and achieve a 25% cut by 2020.
This is within reach if Europe pursues its emission reduction measures and
delivers on its goals of raising the share of renewables in its energy mix
and improving energy efficiency by 20%.
 Moving slower would be more expensive. If action is postponed, there will
be less incentive to develop the technologies needed, and would then have
to reduce emissions much more drastically at a later stage – at higher
costs.
 The EU's offer, in the context of the international negotiations on a
framework for climate action, to take on a reduction target of 30% for 2020
if the conditions are right remains on the table and is not affected by the
Roadmap.

 As the roadmap is just the basis for EU legislation that then tackles the
issues directly, it covers the entire spectrum of EU energy use:
- power,
- transport,
- buildings,
- Industry,
- agriculture.
 It explains to what extent each of these sectors would need to
decarbonise to achieve the long-term goal of 80% overall reduction
of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

4. What really is the Energy Roadmap – Power sector
 It has the biggest potential for cutting emissions. It can almost completely
eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050. Electricity could partially replace fossil
fuels in transport and heating.
 Electricity will come from renewable sources like wind, solar, water and
biomass or other sources that are low in carbon emissions like nuclear
power plants or fossil fuel power stations equipped with carbon capture and
storage technology.
 The share of these clean technologies in power generation could increase
rapidly, from 45% today, to around 60% in 2020 and almost 100% in
2050. For this to happen the cap on emissions from the power sector under
the EU Emission Trading System will need to be strengthened and
considerable investment put into smart grids (EFSI and revision of the ETS
directive next year).

4. What really is the Energy Roadmap – Transport sector
 While emissions from transport are still increasing today, they could be
reduced to more than 60% below 1990 levels by 2050.
 For passenger cars, we would first see further improvements in the fuel
efficiency of cars with traditional petrol and diesel engines. After 2025, a
shift to plug-in hybrid cars and electric cars will allow CO2 emissions from
cars to be cut very steeply.
 Planes will be powered largely by biofuels and also heavy duty vehicles
(lorries) will not fully shift towards electro mobility. Biofuels used should be
sustainable to avoid increased pressure on biodiversity and an increase of
greenhouse gas emissions through changes in land use.

4. What really is the Energy Roadmap – Buildings
 Emissions from houses and office buildings can be almost completely cut,
by around 90% in 2050.
 The energy performance of buildings will be improved drastically; 'passive'
housing technology will become mainstream for new buildings and old
buildings will be retrofitted. Heating, cooling and cooking will be largely
powered by electricity and renewable energy, instead of fossil fuels.
 Investments can be recovered over time through reduced energy bills.

4. What really is the Energy Roadmap – Industry
 Energy intensive industries will also make a large contribution by cutting
emissions by more than 80% by 2050. Technologies used will get cleaner
and more energy-efficient.
 In addition, a large-scale introduction of carbon capture and storage
technologies, which allow CO2 to be stored underground instead of
pumped into the atmosphere, would be needed. This would require big
investments of €10 billion annually by 2040-2050.

4. What really is the Energy Roadmap – Agriculture
 As global food demand grows, the share of agriculture in the EU's total
amount of emissions will raise to about a third by 2050. But reductions are
possible and it is vital to achieve these emission cuts in the agricultural
sector as well; otherwise other sectors will need to make a bigger reduction
effort.
 Agriculture will need to cut emissions from fertilizer, manure and livestock
and can contribute to the storage of CO2 in soils and forests. But also
changes towards a more healthy diet with more vegetables and less meat
can reduce emissions.

5. The Legal Basis for Energy at EU Level
 European energy policy has existed for many years.
 The EU started out as the European Coal and Steel Community (1951)
 Before the Lisbon Treaty (2009), European energy policy was neither
mandatory nor comprehensive. Many policy competencies in relation to
energy remained at Member State level.
 The Lisbon Treaty established formal competence for the EU in energy
policy. It allows for and pushes towards a harmonized common energy
policy.
 For there to be a a single market there needs to be an single EU market
for energy.
 To achieve any form of climate goal, there needs not only to be a
concerted effort, but also in concert by all parties. All states, as all sectors
of the economy, need to cut their pollution otherwise it does not work.

6. Context of Progress and Cooperation

7. Conclusion, next steps and questions
Thank you for taking part and please don’t hesitate to ask any questions!
 Next steps based on the EU Energy Roadmap 2050
- COP (Conference of the Parties) 21 in Paris in December this year
- 2030 Framework package
• Update of the Renewable Energy Directive
• Update of the Energy Efficiency Directive
• Revision of the ETS directive

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Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy by 2050

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