Rockefeller vaccination plan

One for All
An Updated Action Plan
for Global Covid-19
Vaccination
June 2021

1
THE ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION ONE FOR ALL AN UPDATED ACTION PLAN FOR GLOBAL COVID-19 VACCINATION
Onward,
Dr. Rajiv J. Shah,
President of
The Rockefeller Foundation
If the past year has shown us how important it is to
end this pandemic, this report finally reveals what
steps the world must take to do so. In the months
ahead, The Rockefeller Foundation and those who
have collaborated on this initiative will now work to
ensure the world’s nations and multinational insti-
tutions do all that is required to vaccinate enough
people by the end of next year.
With this plan, today’s leaders – beginning later this
month at the G7 meeting – can take the first steps
required to meet that goal. If they do, the benefits will
not just be confided to health and economics. While
Covid-19 succeeded in shutting down international
travel, closing borders and stoking nationalism, individ-
uals everywhere can now share a common experience.
One by one, they can roll up their sleeves and get
a shot for their own protection and to finally end the
pandemic for everyone. In that way, vaccinating
the world will unite us in a way few things ever have.
Right now, the world is only a little closer to ending
the Covid-19 pandemic than it was at this time last
year. Despite the tireless work of health care workers,
the miracles of vaccine researchers and producers,
and the trillions of dollars spent by governments,
there are still too many people falling ill around the
world and too many who have yet to receive the
benefits of vaccination. And, with each new infection,
we risk a mutation that could produce a variant – like
the B1.1.7, B1.351 and B.1.617 variants we are seeing
now – that could break out, cross borders and chal-
lenge vaccine efficacy.
Nearly everyone agrees that we must vaccinate the
world as soon as possible, or risk wasting all this work,
sacrifice and investment. Unfortunately, until this
report, One for All: An Updated Action Plan for Global
Covid-19 Vaccination, there have been few workable,
comprehensive plans to meet that objective nor
the support to achieve it. The result has been inertia –
a global vaccination initiative that lacks resources and
ambition – and a growing gulf between the vaccinated
world and the unvaccinated world.
The risks of missing this moment go far beyond a
prolonged pandemic or a new one driven by a corona-
virus variant. The longer the world goes unvaccinated,
the higher the economic cost – some estimate the
global economy will lose US$9.2 trillion this year – and
the higher the personal, social and political toll of
prolonged lockdowns and other response measures
will grow.
Thankfully, the world knows how to vaccinate at a
large scale. Based on previous inoculation campaigns,
including Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, which launched
20 years ago with The Rockefeller Foundation’s
support, we know any serious plan must address the
three biggest obstacles: supply, delivery, and financing.
This report includes recommendations for how to
overcome some of those challenges and what is
needed to achieve a level of global coordination and
commitment unseen in history.
Foreword

2
14% 4.8% 1.2%
NORTH AMERICA
50% 25%
Global Vaccination Report
As vaccinated communities begin to take off their
masks, Covid-19 is still raging in India, parts of South
America, and is beginning to rise in Africa. While half of
Americans and more than a quarter of Europeans have
received at least one vaccine dose, only 1.2 percent
of people in Africa, 4.8 percent in Asia and 14 percent
in South America are vaccinated. No one is safe from
Covid-19 until everyone is safe and that means vaccinated.
The goal of any plan to achieve herd immunity must be
to achieve sufficient immunization: around 70 percent
by the end of 2022. Unfortunately, COVAX, the global
initiative to vaccinate 92 low- and middle-income
countries, has neither the financial resources nor
access to the vaccine supply it needs to vaccinate
just 27 percent of those populations.
We have extensive experience using vaccinations to
save lives. Currently global immunization campaigns
prevent 4-5 million deaths every year. Because of the
dedication of health workers and effective vaccines:
•
polio is now only endemic in three countries;
cases have decreased from 350,000 cases
in 1988 to 33 in 2018;
•
measles deaths dropped 73% between
2000 and 2018;
But what would a Covid-19 vaccination campaign look
like? Current vaccination campaigns mostly focus
on children; Covid-19 will prioritize adults first. Most
childhood vaccines have been around for decades
thus, supply is generally less of a challenge, unlike
the Covid-19 vaccine supply. But given the severity
of the virus and the detrimental impact extensive
shutdowns have had on lives and the economy, the
level of urgency for scaling Covid-19 vaccinations is
unparalleled. Achieving the ambitious goal of creating
population protection through vaccination will require
unprecedented coordination and collaboration.
AT LEAST ONE
COVID 19
VACCINE DOSE
EUROPE SOUTH AMERICA ASIA AFRICA

3
A Call to Action
The United States announced on May 17 that
it would send overseas 80 million vaccine
doses from its domestic stockpile1
. The
European Union has recently committed to
donate at least 100 million Covid-19 vaccine
doses2
. With an expected surplus of hundreds
of millions of doses this year, countries with
vaccines must share more and quickly.
1
SHARE MORE
SOONER
Strengthening the support system to deliver
and administer vaccines in the developing
world will take months and be expensive.
That work must be accelerated.
The G7 and other donors need to step up to
ensure COVAX meets it's US$ 9.3 billion goal
at the June 2nd AMC Summit and then fill the
entire ACT-A financing gap of US$ 18.5 billion.
Going forward, G20 leaders must ensure that
at least US$100 billion in Special Drawing
Rights (SDRs) from the International Monetary
Fund are reallocated by wealthier countries for
pandemic response.
Despite a looming surplus, the world needs far
more vaccines and fast. An immediate invest-
ment in expanding existing capacity could pay
dividends within six months.
The advanced economies and private sector
must help build facilities and the technical
know-how to operate them in Africa, Latin
America and Asia in a years-long program that
ensures these regions can save themselves
from Covid-19 variants and future pandemics.
3
BUILD IN
THE GLOBAL
SOUTH
2
MAKE MORE
QUICKER
4
SUPPORT
DELIVERY
SYSTEMS
5
CLOSE THE
FINANCING
GAP
ACT-A is a global collaboration to accelerate development, production, and equitable access to Covid-19 tests, treatments, and vaccines
in low and middle-income countries. For the purposes of this report we've used cost assumptions provided by ACT-A and its partners except
where highlighted. Funding for the various activities under the ACT-A pillars is provided directly to various implementing institutions. We note
that various other cost estimates have been developed by GAVI, the IMF and other leading institutions that have highlighted a similar scale of
financing gap, with different cost assumptions driving discrepancies in the overall scale of the gap.

4
The Inequality Virus
In many advanced economies where vaccination
rates have been increasing, restaurants are opening,
airports and beaches are packed and life is returning
to normal. In India, a massive spike in infections has
led to dire shortages of oxygen, hospital beds and
medicines and a sudden surge in corpses washing
up along the Ganges River. The coronavirus’ impact
during its first year was remarkably democratic,
with rich and poor countries suffering alike. But as
hundreds of millions of vaccine doses are distributed
in rich nations, the world’s wealth divide has grown
into a chasm.
Infections and death are declining in North America
and Europe but are on the rise in Africa and soaring
in India, Brazil, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia.
This divergence is not only a moral outrage but a
threat to all of humanity. As SARS-CoV-2, the virus
that causes Covid-19, circulates freely in the alleys
of Old Delhi and barrios of São Paolo, it is rapidly
mutating into more infectious and deadly variants
that could boomerang back onto wealthy nations
and sicken and kill those previously vaccinated. The
longer vaccination efforts in the developing world
are delayed, the greater the risks that Covid-19 never
goes away and that mutations – the variants – break
through the immunity of current vaccines. Until every
place is safe, no place will be safe. Beyond the threat
of mutations, a lack of equity in vaccine distribution
exacerbates fiscal and debt crisis in the developing
world which can lead to further instability.
“There is a huge disconnect
growing, where in some
countries with the highest
vaccination rates, there
appears to be a mindset that
the pandemic is over, while
others are experiencing
huge waves of infection.
The situation in a number of
countries continues to be very
concerning. The pandemic
is a long way from over, and
it will not be over anywhere
until it’s over everywhere.”
Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus,
Director-General of the World Health Organization

5
Already, more than 3.5 million people in the world
have died from Covid-19 and 170 million have been
infected, numbers that are likely substantial under-
counts. The economic toll has been almost as shocking.
Tens of millions lost their jobs, with millions newly des-
titute. Nearly US$10 trillion will be sucked out of the
global economy by the end of 2021 according to the
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
(UNCTAD).3
Rich countries have spent at least
US$14.6 trillion in stimulus funds propping up their
economies and protecting the newly unemployed
from desperation, admirable efforts that poor nations
cannot afford. Economic growth is roaring back in the
United States and China, but lower income countries
are expected to take years to return to 2019 levels.
An estimated 150 million people will fall into extreme
poverty4
and 34 million will be pushed to the brink
of famine as a result of the pandemic5
, according to
international estimates. The economy in Latin America
contracted by an estimated 8.1% percent in 20206
,
the worst decline since 1821. Infectious diseases like
measles and malaria are surging in central and west
Africa as health systems strain under the twin burdens
of a virus pandemic and economic disruptions7
.
“This has become the inequality virus,” said Amina
Mohammed, Deputy Secretary-General of the United
Nations. “The diverging world we’re hurtling towards
is a catastrophe.”
This inequity is yet another pandemic-related disas-
ter that will boomerang back onto rich nations. The
International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Research
Foundation has found that the global economy stands to
lose as much as US$9.2 trillion if governments fail to
ensure developing-economy access to Covid-19 vac-
cines; as much as half of which would fall on advanced
economies8
. Focused almost exclusively on vaccinating
and protecting their own populations, leaders of G7 and
G20 nations have paid insufficient attention to the dire
health, social, economic and political crises threatening
much of the rest of the world. As stated in the preface,
half of Americans and more than a quarter of Europeans
have received at least one vaccine dose, while only
1.2 percent of people in Africa, 4.8 percent in Asia, and
14 percent in South America have received any.9
3.5 MILLION PEOPLE
IN THE WORLD HAVE
DIED FROM COVID-19
170 MILLION PEOPLE
HAVE BEEN INFECTED
NEARLY US$10 TRILLION WILL BE
SUCKED OUT OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
BY THE END OF 2021
150 MILLION PEOPLE WILL FALL
INTO EXTREME POVERTY, 34 MILLION
WILL BE PUSHED TO THE BRINK
OF FAMINE
INFECTIOUS DISEASES LIKE MEASLES
AND MALARIA ARE SURGING IN
CENTRAL AND WEST AFRICA
RICH COUNTRIES HAVE SPENT
AT LEAST US$14.6 TRILLION
IN STIMULUS FUNDS

6
Rich nations have also relied almost entirely on a small
number of pharmaceutical companies to develop and
manufacture the hundreds of millions of vaccine doses
needed for their populations. These companies deserve
enormous praise for their efforts and the billions in
profits that some have reaped are richly deserved. But
private manufacturers will not invest the further billions
needed to vaccinate much of the developing world
without purchase contracts in hand, let alone ensure
the equitable distribution of vaccines. In short, private
enterprise alone cannot resolve the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Access to Covid-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT-A)
In April 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) and partners launched the Access to Covid-19 Tools
Accelerator (ACT-A). ACT-A contains four pillars to drive equitable access: one for diagnostics, one for
therapeutics, one to support in-country delivery of Covid-19 tools, and one focused on vaccines, also
known as COVAX.
Advocates have called for governments to waive intel-
lectual property protections for commercially produced
Covid-19 vaccines in hopes that other manufacturers
and particularly those in the developing world can make
these life-saving medicines themselves much less
expensively. But patents are not the principle hindrance
to immediate vaccine production. Negotiations to waive
intellectual property protections will take months and
must resolve the technical and regulatory barriers that
copy-cat manufacturers cannot resolve on their own in
order to produce safe and effective vaccines.
COVAX drives the research, development, and
manufacturing of a wide range of Covid-19 vaccine
candidates with the ability to negotiate pricing. The
initiative’s initial aim is to have two billion doses
available by the end of 2021 to cover frontline workers
and high-risk populations in low- and middle-income
countries. Unfortunately, COVAX’s efforts to vaccinate
92 low- and middle-income countries has neither the
financial resources nor access to the vaccine supply
it needs and therefore is not on target to meet its
modest objectives for 2021. All four pillars of ACT-A
currently face an US$18.5 billion shortfall for the full
breadth of the pandemic response (costs for testing,
treatment, vaccines and in country support).
Given the progress vaccinations are making in
slowing the spread of the disease, funding COVAX
is critical to get control of the pandemic. COVAX
needs US$9.3 billion to lock in 1.8 billion vaccine
doses. Securing 1.8 billion doses would enable the
vaccination of roughly half the adult population
of the 92 Advance Market Commitment countries
(AMC). On June 2nd, Japan will host a Summit to
try to raise the necessary support. Once funding
for 2021 is secured, the G7 and the G20 need to be
ready to step up to complete funding of vaccinations
for all countries as well as to expand Covid-19 testing
and treatment capacities across the rest of ACT-A to
fully end this pandemic.
VACCINES THERAPEUTICS DIAGNOSTICS HEALTH SYSTEMS
CONNECTOR

7
SHARE MORE SOONER
1
The biggest vaccination campaign in history is
underway. More than 1.6 billion doses have been
administered across 176 countries, enough to
vaccinate 10.5% of the global population10
. But
distribution is lopsided. Countries and regions with
the highest incomes are getting vaccinated more than
30 times faster than those with the lowest incomes.
The gap between North America and the rest of the
world in Covid-19 vaccination efforts continues to
widen. The immediate answer is for wealthy countries
to share more of their vaccine abundance faster.
Principles for Shared Doses
Given the increasing number of authorizations
for Covid-19 vaccines by stringent regulatory
authorities (SRA), some countries have secured
sufficient doses to begin sharing a portion
of those doses with other countries. COVAX
requests countries follow these principles for
sharing doses:
Safe effective
Shared doses must be of assured quality with,
at a minimum, WHO prequalification/emergency
use listing or licensure/authorization from an SRA.
Early availability
Shared doses should be made available as soon
as possible and ideally concurrently by the
sharing country as it receives vaccine.
Rapidly deployable
Sharing of excess doses should be signaled
as early as possible in the manufacturing
process so doses are shipped directly from
the manufacturer with universal labeling and
packaging, allowing rapid deployment and
maximum shelf-life.
Unearmarked
To facilitate equitable access and in keeping
with the COVAX allocation mechanism,
doses should not be earmarked for specific
geographies or populations.
Substantive quantity
Shared doses should be of sufficient and
predictable volumes to have a substantive impact.
(Source: COVAX)

8
Vaccine production can require more than 200 individ-
ual components including syringes, filters, tubing, glass
vials, and stabilizing agents. The components are often
manufactured in different countries and if the supply of
one of the components falls short, the production of a
vaccine can be delayed.
In addition, accelerating vaccine production requires
collaboration. Already firms that would normally be
competitors are working together at an unprecedented
level. For example, Merck is manufacturing vaccines
for its rival Johnson Johnson. London-based GSK
and Novartis in Switzerland are manufacturing millions
of doses for CureVac, based in Germany. The biggest
deals came from AstraZeneca for the vaccine it devel-
oped with the University of Oxford. It has arranged
collaborations with multiple manufacturing facilities
across more than a dozen countries around the world
to produce more than 3 billion vaccine doses. But
producing vaccines is more complex than producing
drugs, so truly scaling production to the necessary lev-
els will require technology transfer11
and the know-how
needed to put plans into action.
Crash programs to develop Covid-19 vaccines have
been among history’s greatest scientific achievements.
In its first phase, countries, companies, and labs
funded a number of vaccine technologies in the hope
that some would result in safe and effective vaccines
needed for a global vaccination campaign. For example
this year, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna are expected
to deliver nearly 4 billion doses and as many as 7 billion
doses next year.
For that reason, we must continue to push for and
invest in increasing manufacturing capacity and the
supply chain enhancements needed to ensure that
manufacturers are able to make Covid-19 vaccines
at their full capacity. Unfortunately manufacturing
equipment, bioreactor bags, tubing, filters and other
supplies that are needed are all still in short supply. As
we have seen, any hiccup along the way can derail or
slow production increases.
MAKE MORE QUICKER
2

9
India’s drug industry rescued millions when HIV/
AIDS threatened Africa, and the hope was that it
would do the same during another pandemic.
More than half of the vaccines delivered through
the end of April to COVAX, the international vac-
cine-sharing initiative, were made by the Serum
Institute of India. Such a heavy reliance on one
manufacturer in one country leaves the world
vulnerable to the kind of shocks that pandemics
invariably bring. In April, India stopped exporting
Covid-19 vaccines, one of several national bans that
have left the developing world unprotected.
The hard lesson of the present global calamity is
that each country or region must ensure its own
vaccine supply chain, and that will require a whole-
sale retooling of biological manufacturing around
the world. This will not be easy.
Vaccine plants are specialized facilities that
are expensive and time-consuming to build.
Manufacturing capacity is far from the only
problem bedeviling vaccine supplies. Critical
ingredients for almost every step in making
vaccines have been in short supply, from basic
raw materials like buffers and resins to laboratory
consumables like single-use bags, tubing and
sterile filters to the vials and stoppers used to
package vaccines.
While some manufacturers of these critical supplies
have been able to expand rapidly, others are facing
supply shortages of their own. Indeed, there was
a shortage of biological manufacturing capacity
for drugs even before the pandemic, a constraint
that has worsened significantly with nearly 180
different Covid-19 vaccines in various stages of
development.
Beyond parts and materials, operations require a
highly trained workforce that keeps a tight control
on process parameters like pressure, temperature,
aeration, and stirring rates. The slightest misstep or
contamination and tens of millions of vaccine doses
must be jettisoned. Creating a set of independent
but globally connected plants should become a
priority. Among the needs for this network:
1. Advance purchase agreements,
capacity subsidies, grants and con-
cessional loans with favorable terms
to encourage local manufacturers.
2. Hub facilities that serve as training
centers to facilitate the transfer of
technical expertise and product-
specific instruction.
3. Special localized regulatory path-
ways to verify the safety and efficacy
of the resulting vaccine products in a
timely and consistent manner.
4. Regional supply chain inter-
mediaries to catalog, harden and
diversify vaccine supply chains to
ensure crisis resilience.
Supply Chain

10
Vaccine nationalism has created an appalling divide
between the developed and developing world in coping
with the second year of the Covid-19 pandemic. The
hard lesson learned by leaders around the globe is that
vaccine manufacturing capacity is a national security pri-
ority. Leaders in Africa, boosted by recently announced
support from a cadre of multilateral development banks
(MDBs) and development finance institutions (DFIs)12
,
have already vowed to correct this deficit by creating
regional manufacturing hubs, and similar efforts are
underway around the world. Members of the G7 must
support these efforts by pledging to provide the tech-
nical know-how and some of the funding needed to
make these facilities operational.
One possible remedy is to support licensing
agreements for production and distribution in the
developing world. Pharmaceutical companies routinely
make such arrangements. Gilead Sciences signed such
agreements a year ago with five generic companies
in India and Pakistan to manufacture and distribute in
127 countries remdesivir, the company’s experimental
medicine for Covid-19. The agreements were similar to
ones the company made previously for its hepatitis C
treatments. Such deals eliminate the controversy and
hurdles involved with waiving patent rights.
Other proposals seek a middle ground between the
two extremes: compulsion and voluntariness, including
a push for the World Trade Organization and WHO
to work with countries and vaccine manufacturers
with relevant IP and technology to move towards
technology transfer and voluntary licensing on a
defined timeline before a Agreement on Trade-Related
Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) waiver
comes into effect. These proposals should be explored.
Such arrangements would also make Moderna,
Pfizer, JJ/Janssen or another major pharmaceutical
company an ally for manufacturing efforts in the
developing world, vital in helping build the technical
expertise these plants would need to be successful.
These and other options need to be explored in a
coordinated manner with all relevant stakeholders as
soon as possible.
BUILD CAPACITY
IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH
3

11
The challenges of delivering Covid-19 vaccines are
among the greatest ever faced by public health
authorities. Current plans under ACT-A, including
COVAX, call for distributing more than two billion vac-
cine doses by the end of 2021 to achieve a vaccination
rate of just 27 percent in 92 countries that are part of
the Advance Market Commitment group.
Delivering and administering vaccines takes logistics,
people and money. The successful infrastructure
built by PEPFAR, the Global Fund and other pro-
grams to deliver HIV medicines must be expanded
to create national vaccination initiatives that do not
bleed money or resources from other needed health
programs. Higher-income countries should work
with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and other partners
to continue strengthening this infrastructure in the
developing world13
.
A basic problem is that the world’s delivery infrastruc-
ture has long revolved around infants and children,
not adults. Vaccination campaigns against polio, Ebola
and some other infectious agents suggest that most
of the cost of vaccinations will not be the vaccines,
but the services needed to deliver them. A key prior-
ity is ensuring that Covid-19 vaccination efforts have
enough money to prevent the cannibalization of other
crucial health programs.
Covid-19 vaccination programs require data systems
to monitor coverage and safety, effective communica-
tions on where to get vaccinated and combat vaccine
hesitancy, and personal protective equipment for med-
ical personnel. This investment will help build capacity
and pay dividends for future disease outbreaks.
SUPPORT DELIVERY
SYSTEM
4

12
Vaccination
An old saying in public health is that vaccines do not
save lives, vaccinations do. It is a reminder that get-
ting vaccines from manufacturing plant to people’s
arms is an enormously complicated task that often
costs more than the vaccines themselves.
There are delivery logistics that in some poor areas
require small solar refrigerators and other forms of
appropriate technology. Digital tools and data ana-
lytics can enhance and accelerate vaccine delivery.
Indeed each step in the process, from the first mile
to the last inch, must be planned and provided for.
Huge investments have already been made in
creating a global vaccination infrastructure, one of
the greatest successes in public health. Between
2010 and 2018, 23 million deaths were averted
globally with the measles vaccine alone. More than
116 million infants are now vaccinated annually,
representing 86 percent of all births.
But the world’s existing vaccination infrastructure has
largely been built to serve infants and children while
Covid-19 vaccines must be given to adults first.
Expanding and strengthening this infrastructure in the
coming year is vital not only to ensure the efficient
delivery of Covid-19 vaccines, but as an investment in
the immunization systems of the future, as described
by the World Health Organization's Immunization
Agenda 2030. Among them:
ACT-A partners have estimated that in-country costs
for logistics, training and community engagement
will amount to about US$1.66 per vaccine dose.
Workforce expenses are higher, with a total cost of
US$5 per vaccine dose. Half of those labor costs
can be carried by countries themselves, with the
international community responsible for the remain-
ing US$2.50 to US$3 per vaccine dose.
2. Health workforce:
Well-trained and well-resourced
health workers must be used to
deliver vaccines in a way that
strengthens, not weakens, exist-
ing health programs.
3. Supply chain and logistics:
Vaccines must be made available
in the right place and time and
stored and distributed under the
right conditions. Data systems
and other infrastructure must
strengthen existing primary care.
1. Immunization in primary care:
Giving shots must be made an
integral part of existing primary
health care operations and
included in national healthcare
coverage plans.
4. Monitor vaccine safety:
Adequate systems to detect
and respond to concerns about
vaccine safety with continuous
monitoring is vital.
5. Address reluctance:
Understand and respond to public
concern about vaccinations and
mitigate vaccine misinformation
to reduce its negative impact.

13
There is a funding gap across ACT-A for both 2021 and
2022 for all four pillars of work. To vaccinate just 27
percent of the population this year in 92 low- and middle-
income countries is expected to cost US$9.3 billion.
For 2021, the outstanding funding gap across all four
ACT-A pillars amounts to US$18.5 billion14
. Advanced
economies must fill these gaps with grant funding
this year to complement domestic resources being
mobilized in these markets.
Alternative sources of financing via multilateral
development banks, the private sector and domestic
resources must be pursued. The G7 and G20 should
embrace a pathway towards using special drawing
rights (SDRs) to backstop increased lending to fund
pandemic response in 2022 and beyond.
Anything less will not only condemn millions in the
developing world to untimely deaths but will allow
Covid-19 variants to spread, potentially creating a
never-ending cycle of pandemic after pandemic.
PAYING FOR VACCINES
THIS YEAR, NEXT YEAR
AND BEYOND
5

14
Financing Solutions through the end of 2021
Funding the four pillars of ACT-A fully for 2021 requires
around US$34 billion when all associated costs,
including delivery costs, are considered. Of this total,
US$15 billion has already been put forward from donor
nations, philanthropies and multilateral institutions,
leaving a shortfall of nearly US$18.5 billion15
. The table on
page 15 highlights the key cost assumptions behind the
ACT-A model, which we have relied upon in this report.
Vaccines and the associated price per dose are
a critical and volatile variable which can cause differences
between the costing models being developed by various
stakeholders. In country labor costs, estimated at an
additional US$2.5-3.0 per dose, are also an important
cost driver added to the 2022 modeling scenario.
ACT-A
MODEL

15
IN 2021 IN 2022
RESEARCH
DEVELOPMENT,
MARKET
PREPARATION
MANUFACTURING
Carry-over 2021 effort, with costs adjusted
by 2% for inflation
PROCUREMENT VACCINATION
TARGET
Vaccinate 30% of
total population of
92 AMC countries
Vaccinate 100% of total adult population
(18+) of AMC countries (assumes 2021
COVAX target achieved and a maximum of
20% of available COVAX doses go to India)
UNIT COSTS
For major cost drivers
Vaccine: $5
Testing (RDT): $2.5
Testing (PCR): $25
Vaccine: $7 ($4.2 India Indonesia)
Testing (RDT): $2
Testing (PCR): $9.1
Sequencing: $175/ 0.25% of tests
Oxygen: $377/course
Therapeutics: $10-$20/course
PPE: $1.7/Community Health Worker
$8/other Health Worker per day
TESTING RATE
Per 100k inhab/day
250 LIC: 250
LMIC: 250
PPE COVERAGE
In % of Health Workers
20% 40%
INTERNATIONAL
FREIGHT
In % of procurement
Included in proc.
costs
10% for PPE
20% for Tests, Therapeutics
5% Oxygen
TECHNICAL
ASSISTANCE
AND DELIVERY
SUPPORT
CATALYTIC NEEDS
In % of procurement
Vaccines: 20%
Diagnostics: 7%
Vaccines: $1.66/dose for logistics
technical assistance
PPE: 10% procurement for logistics
Diagnostics: 20% procurement for logistics
IN COUNTRY
ADDITIONAL
LABOR COSTS
SURGE FTE
Mix of skills
N/A $2.5–3 per dose for additional labor cost
model, in addition to in country labor
costs. (Additional in country labor costs
are not part of ACT-A funding model)
2022 Cost Assumptions
(in USD)
Critical cost drivers in the Act-A model for 2021 and 2022, which have
been determined by key stakeholders, are given in the table below.
These assumptions represent one of three costing scenarios developed
by the ACT-A team.

16
Countries could secure loans to bridge the 2021
funding gap. However, the severe economic impact
that has accompanied the pandemic has strained
balance sheets, making further debt an even more
onerous burden. The International Monetary Fund
(IMF), through its Poverty Reduction Growth Trust
(PRGT), has increased its concessional lending over
the past year, but many multilateral development
banks (MDBs) have not effectively followed suit.
Facilities like the World Bank’s (WB) US$12 billion
commitment for vaccination and pandemic response
have largely gone underutilized.
Private efforts such as a coalition of major investment
banks working to issue a bond that would appeal
to ESG investors and whose proceeds would be
channeled to vaccine procurement via COVAX, are
under development and could lever up additional
grant resources provided by donors and others. This
facility could act as a bridge loan for countries that
could be repaid with longer term funding from the IMF
or the WB, but it still needs to be structured and to
raise requisite grant funds to launch.
For all of these reasons, increased borrowing is not
likely to fill the short-term financing gap required to
scale ACT-A and vaccinations globally. To have any
hope of meeting this year’s modest vaccination goals,
the G7 and other advanced economy governments
must heed the call and increase its donor commitments
to ACT-A and COVAX at Japan's COVAX AMC Summit
on June 2nd and at the G7 Carbis Bay Summit in
June 2021. A burden sharing formula, akin to the
proposal put forth by the Governments of Norway and
South Africa16
, should be agreed by the international
community and should allocate costs based on an
assessment of each country's ability to pay.
Additional sources of grant and grant-like funding,
including resources from philanthropies, corporates
and other non-sovereign donors must continue to
be catalyzed, with leadership from the G7. Public
advocacy campaigns such as the Go Give One
Campaign have the potential to tap into public
goodwill and drive vaccine equity and should
continue to be scaled wherever possible.

17
The financing gap in 2022 is projected to be even
larger. Utilizing the ACT-A scenario whereby COVAX
targets for 2021 are met, and 100% of all adults are
vaccinated by the end of 2022, the total costs per
country grouping are given in the table below.
Financing Solutions for 2022
70 PRGT-ELIGIBLE
COUNTRIES17
(BILLION USD)
92 AMC COUNTRIES
(BILLION USD)
133 LOWER AND MIDDLE
INCOME COUNTRIES
(BILLION USD)
$ 12
$ 8
VACCINE
PROCUREMENT
OTHER
$ 25 $ 34
$ 24 $ 36
$ 20
TOTAL
$ 49 $ 70
Projected Costs for 2022 by Country
Includes in country labor costs using mid-range ACT-A estimate
The plan to fund this shortfall must be finalized soon to
facilitate necessary advance procurement and to build
out delivery modalities highlighted in the first part of
this report. Additional funding to fill a portion of 2022
ACT-A funding costs must come from grant support
from sovereigns and other donors in addition to
resources mobilized from domestic sources. However,
starting in 2022, additional funding can come from the
International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights
(SDRs). As SDRs were not designed with this purpose
in mind, designing and delivering a solution will require
creativity, technical innovation and political leadership.

18
SDRs are an international reserve asset, created by
the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries’
official reserves. The IMF Executive Directors have
conveyed broad support to move towards a new US
$650 billion allocation of SDRs this year. A formal
proposal on this new allocation will be presented to
the IMF Board in June 2021. The sheer scale of the
liquidity provided by SDRs makes them an attractive
option for financing pandemic response.
Under the current system, general allocations of SDRs
must be distributed in proportion to IMF members’
quotas, not on the basis of need. For this reason, the
wealthiest countries will receive the great majority
(67%+) of this proposed new allocation. So-called
“excess” SDRs will sit on the balance sheets of
wealthier countries and will do nothing to address
balance of payment issues exacerbated by the
pandemic. The solution is for wealthy countries to
donate or on-lend a proportion of their new SDR
allocation to fund pandemic response globally.
Previous Rockefeller Foundation analysis illustrated
several plausible scenarios through which at least US
$100 billion could be raised through SDR recycling,
depending on the countries that contribute and the
portion of their allocation they are willing to recycle18
.
African Leaders recently called for such a reallocation
strategy at a summit in Paris in May of this year19
.
It is important to note that there are limitations on the
use of SDRs. First, SDRs are a reserve asset typically
used to address balance of payments constraints/
challenges and are not a fiat currency. Second, when
a country holds fewer SDRs than it has been allocated,
it must pay interest. This interest must be covered by
some form of matching liability and/or subsidy when
SDRs are on-lent or donated via any modality.
Three modalities below through which SDRs could be
channeled to pandemic response have been designed
within the context of these limitations. As detailed
above, these options should not be considered
mutually exclusive, with each providing a potential
Utilizing SDRs to Close the Funding Gap
path for countries seeking to reallocate or donate their
SDRs to ensure an equitable pandemic response and
pave the way for future growth.
Given its ability to mobilize additional concessional
funding for low and middle-income countries quickly
using existing lending facilities, Option 1 should
be pursued in earnest. Options 2 and 3 are viable
alternatives, albeit with longer lead times and higher
levels of implementation complexity.

19
IMF POVERTY REDUCTION
GROWTH TRUST
(On-lent/donated SDRs from wealthy countries)
IMF GENERAL RESOURCES
ACCOUNT
(Existing resources available in GRA)
1.
Dedicated Window for
Pandemic Response
Option 1 calls for creating a dedicated window under
both the Poverty Reduction Growth Trust (PRGT) and
General Resources Account (GRA) that specifically
underwrites loans to IMF members for the purpose of
pandemic response20
. The GRA is the primary means
by which the IMF and its members conduct financial
transactions, whereas the PRGT is the IMF’s conces-
sional lending window which currently provides zero
interest loans to 70 low-income countries. New annual
commitments from the PRGT grew from an average of
US$1.5 billion between 2015 and 2019 to over US$9
billion in 2020.
Under this option, dedicated windows within the
PRGT and the GRA would be quickly established that
leverage existing operational architecture to mobilize
additional funding for pandemic response. The dedi-
cated windows could be built into existing rapid credit
facilities like the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI),
which is open to all countries, or the Rapid Credit
Facility (RCF) which is open to PRGT-eligible countries.
The windows would have dedicated criteria for pan-
demic response, including a clear indication of use of
70 PRGT ELIGIBLE
COUNTRIES
ALL IMF MEMBER COUNTRIES
PANDEMIC RESPONSE WINDOW PANDEMIC RESPONSE WINDOW
proceeds by the borrowing country. Governance and
loan reporting would also prioritize confirmation on use
of proceeds and alignment against broader pandemic
response objectives.
Stretching common criteria across both the PRGT and
GRA ensures that all countries can benefit from the
additional liquidity. The GRA is well capitalized and
could therefore immediately begin disbursing loans
under this new window to qualifying countries, albeit
on non-concessional terms.
PRGT countries face a pandemic financing gap of
US$20 billion in 2022. SDRs would be used to increase
concessional lending to this cohort. The PRGT subsidy
account currently stands at about US$5.5 billion.
This could cover approximately US$45 billion in new
loan commitments made over the period from 2021-
25 though the subsidy and reserve accounts will
ultimately need to be replenished.
Ideally, and subject to legal review, resources at the
‘window level’ (i.e. within the PRGT or GRA), could be
provided directly to the Global Fund or Gavi at the
behest of the borrowing country. This would ensure
clarity on use of proceeds and crucially facilitate
the aggregation of funding that drives production,

20
ensures availability of supply, and puts downward
pressure on pricing. However, the standard operating
model for both the PRGT and GRA is to provide
loan proceeds directly to a member country. The
IMF should, to the greatest extent possible, ensure
resources go directly to the procuring entity (e.g.
Global Fund or Gavi).
This approach also provides benefits from the
perspective of Governments on-lending or donating
their SDRs. When an advanced economy pledges to
on-lend a portion of the newly allocated SDRs to the
new window via the PRGT, it would:
The challenge with this option is finding a means of
making loans under the GRA available at attractive
terms to middle-income countries with a vaccine
financing shortfall that are not eligible for conces-
sional PRGT financing. This includes countries such
as India, Indonesia and Nigeria, for example.
Accrue interest from the on-lent SDR
from the PRGT to match the interest
liability due to IMF
Experience no reduction in the reserve
assets held by the country’s treasury
or central bank because it can replace
the SDR as a reserve asset with the new
loan asset
Experience minimal credit risk because
the PRGT loss reserves provide a buffer
against delinquent payment of loans
92 AMC COUNTRIES
OR 133 LMICS
IMF PANDEMIC RESPONSE
TRUST
(On-lent/donated SDRs from wealthy countries)
2.
Dedicated Trust for
Pandemic Response
Option 2 calls for creating a new, dedicated trust
within the IMF for pandemic response. Unlike Option
1, a new trust could build off the design elements of
the PRGT and GRA, but would entail the establishment
of a new, dedicated entity for pandemic response.
Creating a new trust would enable governance,
underwriting, loan structuring and reporting to be
specifically tailored to the needs of countries to
respond to the Covid-19 and future pandemics.
Another key advantage is that the set of countries
eligible for concessional finance could be expanded
beyond the 70 PRGT countries to include a broader
set of countries.
The downside is that the creation of a new trust
would require a higher threshold for approval by IMF
shareholders and would therefore be politically more
challenging. It would also require the creation of
new architecture for the trust to be operationalized.
For example, in order for the new trust to be able to
lend on concessional terms to borrowing countries,
lending, subsidy and reserve accounts would have to
be established akin to the PRGT. While feasible, this
would require significant additional time to design and
operationalize than Option 1.
This new trust could also remain in place for future
pandemics as needed, with the downside that ring-
fencing resources in this manner could be considered
inefficient and lead to underutilization over time. It
could be available to all member countries, though

21
demand would be expected to come primarily from
low-and middle-income countries.
The new trust could be bifurcated to include
concessional and non-concessional facilities, while
maintaining consistent governance, reporting, clarity
on use of proceeds, etc. A combination of on-lent
and/or donated SDRs could be used to provide the
initial liquidity required to establish the trust and
as required to ensure that lending is available on
attractive terms (at least via the concessional window).
The ability for a new trust to provide proceeds directly
to the Global Fund or Gavi would be greater than
in Option 1, as a dedicated trust could define its
operations accordingly, but would still require legal
analysis and shareholder approval.
This approach also provides benefits from the
perspective of Governments on-lending or donating
their SDRs described above for Option 1.
3.
Approved Institution for
Pandemic Response
APPROVED INSTITUTION
(E.g. World Bank IDA or African
Development Bank)
92 AMC COUNTRIES
OR 133 LMICS
IMF
(On-lent/donated SDRs
from wealthy countries)
Option 3 calls for creating a new ‘fund’ within an
IMF approved institution such as the World Bank/
International Development Association (IDA), specifi-
cally targeting pandemic response. Under this
scenario existing lending, reporting and governance
architecture of the approved institution would be
leveraged to enable the efficient deployment of
funding for pandemic response to eligible countries.
By leveraging existing architecture and utilizing the
IMF’s rule on approved institutions, funding could
technically flow relatively quickly under this option.
However, like Option 2, clear rules and governance
structures would have to be created to dictate how
the fund would operate and resources would flow
and to overcome the issues that have hindered the
deployment of resources from MDBs for pandemic
response to date.
It is likely that this option could be designed to target all
133 low-income countries and middle-income countries.
Under this option, an advanced economy would
pledge, and upon allocation lend, a portion of the
newly allocated SDRs to an IMF approved institution
such as IDA or African Development Bank. The
MDB would use the SDRs directly to obtain fiat
currency (either via liquidation or using the SDR as
collateral), and then enter into a loan facility with a
borrowing member, with loan proceeds ultimately
being channeled directly to the Global Fund or Gavi.
Repayment terms for MDBs are typically more flexible
than for the IMF windows, which could further reduce
the economic burden on the borrowing members.
While the on-lending country would owe interest for
the portion of allocated SDRs that it no longer holds,
this amount could be offset by interest payments
from the MDB and/or a subsidy pool. Alternatively,
the country could agree to internally account for the
interest gap created from its exchequer.
The on-lending country could also replace the SDR as
a reserve asset with the new loan asset so that there is
no reduction in the reserve assets held by the treasury
or central bank. Credit risk would be managed by the
MDB, or a loss reserve account could be created to
manage this risk.

22
OPTION 1: WINDOW OPTION 2: TRUST OPTION 3: APPROVED
INSTITUTION
Speed of deployment
Legal complexity
Operational efficiency
Ability to support SDR
recycling (donation or
on-lending)
Country scope
Repayment terms
Governance
1 – 2 months from
commitment to lend
Low, leveraging exist-
ing PRGT and GRA legal
architecture
High, leveraging operating
framework of PRGT and
GRA
High, on-lending through
PRGT and GRA
All IMF member countries
given PRGT and GRA
Commensurate with PRGT
and GRA standards, poten-
tial to tweak on margins
Status quo for PRGT
and GRA
6 – 8 months to design and
operationalize
High, new entity with ability
to leverage other vehicles
(e.g. PRGT)
To be tailored accordingly To be developed in line with
approved institution
High, facility to be tailored
to pandemic response
needs
High, facility to be designed
to support on-lending and
SDR donation
To be tailored to at least
include AMC 92 countries
and beyond as needed
Will be designed to be fit
for purpose, with conces-
sionality envisaged for
LMICs ala PRGT
2 – 4 months to formalize
High, given new arrange-
ment, but leveraging
existing frameworks as
feasible
Medium, leveraging
existing infrastructure of
approved institution
(e.g. WB IDA), which comes
with its own operational
complexity
Medium, ability to on-lend
SDRs to approved
institution to be clarified
and stress-tested
Dependent on approved
institution scope, to be
designed to prioritize
133 LMICs
Will be designed to be
fit for purpose, with
concessionality envisaged
for LMICs ala PRGT

23
For this reason, the public and private sectors should
all feel compelled to expand access to vaccinations.
Grant funding needs to be quickly mobilized from
the G7, G20 and other donors to provide immediate
resources to secure additional vaccine doses in 2021.
Looking to 2022, the funding gap to scale ACT-A and
its components is considerably larger than it was
in 2021, an estimated US$49 billion for 92 low and
middle-income countries. This report attempts to find
consensus among experts on what is needed in terms
of action and resources and urge the G7 and G20 to
push for innovative options to finance broader pan-
demic response efforts. The menu of options provided
here for utilizing Special Drawing Rights to specifically
fund a global vaccination campaign should be given
urgent and serious consideration by the G7, G20, the
IMF and its shareholders.
Strong leadership, innovation, coordination and coop-
eration will be required to supply what is needed from
all nations to end this pandemic. Time is of the essence
and there is no other way to defeat this viral enemy.
In summary, the Covid-19 pandemic is still a grave threat
to global public health and the international economy and
will get worse if we do not act. An estimated 150 million
people will fall into extreme poverty and 34 million will be
pushed to the brink of famine as a result of the pandemic.

24
Sources
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statements-releases/2021/05/17/fact-sheet-biden-harris-admin-
istration-is-providing-at-least-80-million-covid-19-vaccines-for-
global-use-commits-to-leading-a-multilateral-effort-toward-
ending-the-pandemic/
2 https://fortune.com/2021/05/21/
europe-us-donating-covid-vaccines-developing/
3 https://unctad.org/news/global-economy-gets-covid-19-shot-
us-stimulus-pre-existing-conditions-worsen
4 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/
press-release/2020/10/07/covid-19-to-add-as-many-as-150-
million-extreme-poor-by-2021#:~:text=The%20COVID-19%20
pandemic%20is,severity%20of%20the%20economic%20
contraction
5 https://www.wfp.org/stories/famine-alert-hunger-malnutrition-
and-how-wfp-tackling-other-deadly-pandemic
6 https://www.csis.org/analysis/
effects-covid-19-latin-americas-economy
7 https://www.msf.org/
measles-steady-silent-killer-among-covid-19
8 https://iccwbo.org/media-wall/news-speeches/study-shows-
vaccine-nationalism-could-cost-rich-countries-us4-5-trillion/
9 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vacci-
nations-tracker.html
10 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/
covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
11 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00727-3
12 https://pressroom.ifc.org/all/pages/PressDetail aspx?ID=26379
13 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/
act-accelerator/final-act-a_strategy-budget-2021_fc_9feb2021.
pdf?sfvrsn=773c5931_7
14 https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/
access-to-covid-19-tools-tracker
15 https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/
access-to-covid-19-tools-tracker
16 https://www.cgdev.org/blog/financing-global-health-security-fairly
17 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dsa/dsalist.pdf
18 https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/report/
one-for-all-an-action-plan-for-financing-global-vaccination-
and-sustainable-growth/
19 https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/macron-hosts-summit-
financing-africas-post-pandemic-recovery-2021-05-18/
20 https://www.cgdev.org/publication/vaccine-financing-how-
redesigned-imf-instrument-can-provide-shot-arm-global-
pandemic

25
Contributors
The Rockefeller Foundation is
grateful to the following people
who have contributed to this
Updated Action Plan through
exchanges in person, via phone or
other collaborations. Some may
differ with aspects of it, or have
stressed other matters of primary
focus. All have contributed
with the greatest sense of
shared purpose at this time of
international need.
David Andrews
Fmr. Deputy Director,
International Monetary Fund
Bruce Aylward
ACT-Accelerator Hub,
World Health Organization
The Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation
Amar Bhattarcharya
Senior Fellow,
Brookings Institution
Dr. Rick Bright
Senior Vice President,
Pandemic Prevention Response,
The Rt. Hon Gordon Brown
U.N. Special Envoy for
Global Education
Dr. Joe Curtin
Director, Power Climate,
Jamie Drummond
Co-Founder,
ONE Campaign;
Senior Strategist,
Sharing Strategies
Christy Feig, MPH
Managing Director,
Communications Advocacy,
The Ford Foundation
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance
Danielle Geanacopoulos
Director, Strategic Partnerships,
Dr. Bruce Gellin
Chief of Global Public
Health Strategy,
Filmona Hailemichael
U.S. Policy and Government
Affairs Director,
Global Citizen
John Hicklin
Non-Resident Fellow,
Center for Global
Development
The Mastercard Foundation
David McNair
Executive Director,
Global Policy ONE Campaign
Mike Muldoon
Managing Director,
Innovative Finance,
Eileen O'Connor
Senior Vice President,
Communications,
Policy and Advocacy,
The Open Society Foundations
Mark Plant
Senior Policy Fellow,
Center for Global Development
John-Arne Rottingen
Ambassador for Global Health,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway
Professor Jeffrey Sachs
Chair, Lancet COVID-19 Commission,
President, U.N. Sustainable
Development Solutions Network
Benjamin Sarda
Project Leader,
Boston Consulting Group
Dr. Rajiv J. Shah
President,
Lord Nicholas Stern
Professor,
London School of Economics
United Nations Economic
Commission for Africa (UNECA)
Design: AHOY Studios

26
rockefellerfoundation.org

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