Rolling Out the Quadrennial Technology Review Report

Rolling Out the Quadrennial Technology Review Report

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  Report on theFirstQuadrennial Technology ReviewReport DOE/S-0001Steven KooninUnder Secretary for ScienceUS Department of Energy September 27, 2011www.energy.gov/QTR
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  QTR’s Origins andGoals QTR Goals To define and promulgate a simple framework for energyTo explain to DOE and its stakeholders the various roles in energy transformation To establish a common sense of priorities among the suite of DOE’s energy activities 3November, 1997: “Federal Energy R&D for the Challenges of the 21st Century” (J. Holdren, Panel Chair; J. H. Gibbons, Dir OSTP and PCAST Co-Chair)Recommended “much more systematic effort in R&D portfolio analysis” November, 2010: “Accelerating the Pace of Change in Energy Technologies through an Integrated Federal Energy Policy”(E. Moniz & M. Savitz, Panel Co-Chairs; J. Holdren, Dir OSTP and PCAST Co-Chair) “Quadrennial Energy Review (QER) could establish government-wide goals” “DOE component of the full interagency QER focused on energy technology innovation, promptly.”
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  4QTR TimelineNov 2010PCASTrecommended DOE do QTR to prep for future govt-wide QER2011: Mid-March through mid-AprilPublic comment period for DOE’s QTR Framing DocumentApril 20 First batch of 60 public comments released on project websiteMid-May through Mid-JulyHeld workshops and discussionsVolume I8/5/11Submitted QTR Draft Report to EOPMid-SeptDOE receives all comments from EOP on QTR Draft ReportSept 27DOE releasesReport on the QTR with Rollout Events on East and West CoastsVolume 2MarchCoordinated DOE Technology Teams to write reportsJuly-AugQTR team reviewed and normalized TA drafts Mid-Late AugSent QTR Technology Assessments for peer reviewMid-Late SeptReceive and process peer reviewed commentsLate OctRelease Peer-Reviewed QTR Technology Assessments
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  The QTR LogicFlow5Tech TeamsEnergy context Supply/demand
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  Energy essentialsEnergy challengesEnergySecurity
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  US Competitiveness
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  Environmental Impact Playersand RolesPrivate/Gov’t
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  Within gov’t
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  Econ/Policy/Tech
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  Acad/Lab/PrivateTechnology AssessmentsHistory
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  Status
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  PotentialTechnology RoadmapsMilestones
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  Cost
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  Schedule
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  PerformersDOE portfolio principlesSixstrategiesDOE priorities and portfolioBalanced within and across strategies Five-year program plans and budgets
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  U.S. Energy ChallengesEnergySecurityEnvironmental ImpactsCompetitivenessCO2 Emissions in OECD vsnon-OECD CountriesMonthly Spot Price OK WTIGlobal Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing (2009)Billion metric tons of CO2Water Withdrawals in % By Category (2005)Worldwide Shipments of Solar Photovoltaics (MW)Share of Reserves Held by NOC/IOC6
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  Six Strategieswww.energy.gov/QTR7
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  8Energy supply haschanged on decadal scales US energy supply since 1850Source: EIA
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  The Transport Logic9Weare coupled to a global oil market Balance of payments, high and volatile prices, insecurity, GHGs
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  Demand isgrowing, easy resource is concentratingIncreased domestic production fixes jobs, balance of payments, security; not price We cannot produce enough fast enough to affect the global market; OPEC distorts
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  Conventional andunconventional crude, biofuels, CTL/CTL/CBTL/… sold at oil price
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  Go beyond“energy independence” to “price independence” (cf UK fuel riots of 2000)Must decouple from the global oil market Reduce oil demand materially through efficiency
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  Shift LDVsto a non-fungible fuel (Grid? Hydrogen? Natural Gas?)
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  Advanced biofuelsfor the remaining HDV demandStrategies (ordered by cost-effectiveness and time-to-impact)Increasing vehicle efficiency - nearest-term impact with existing technology.
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  Electrifying the lightduty fleet - a graceful transition: HEVs to PHEVs to BEVs
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  Deploying alternative hydrocarbonfuels - biasedtoward fuels for HDVs Transport: Technology Headroom for DOE10Vehicle Efficiency Increase internal combustion engine efficiency
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  Lightweighting and aerodynamics Electrification Batteries
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  Electric motorsand power electronicsAlternative Hydrocarbon Fuels (for HDVs)Biofuels
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  Alternative fossilfuels (only if less carbon than gasoline/diesel)The Stationary Logic11Generation, transmission, and demand are interdependent More complicated than transport The U.S. is energy independent here Competitiveness and environmental impacts come to the fore.
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  Strengthening domesticinnovation and manufacturing capabilities
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  Keep energyaffordable while keeping it cleanStrategies (ordered by cost-effectiveness and time-to-impact)Increasing energy efficiency in buildings and industry - most immediate route to increasing energy productivity. Modernizing the grid will not only increase reliability and security, but also give greater control to meet clean energy aspirations in other strategies. Deploying clean electricity - accommodates retirement of existing generators and reduces environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, water, …).
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  Stationary: Technology Headroomfor DOE12Building and Industrial Efficiency Data collection and usage
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  Integrated systemsanalyses
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  Next-gen processesand productsGrid Modernization Communication and data
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  Management andcontrol
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  Energy storageCleanPower Drive down costs
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  Coupling betweenenergy and water use
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  Increase modularityand scalability
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  Infrastructure compatibilityTechnologyPolicy13
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  Modes of DOEOperationCapabilityPre-competitive R&D and engineering science creates a knowledge about new and incumbent energy technologies Harnesses capability of national laboratories and universities and strengthens capabilities in private sector partners Expertise explores full spectrum of energy technologies for potential breakthroughs and develops a technical workforce capable of addressing energy emergencies (ex: responses to Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima) InformationalInformation collected, analyzed, and disseminated by DOE shapes policies and decisions made by other governmental and private sector actors Targeted InitiativesCoordination across RD&D process to help prove technologies for private sector adoption Highly visible activities that should be infrequent, carefully planned, and with clear technical off-ramps14
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  Prioritization CriteriaDOE willmaintain a mix of analytic, assessment, and engineering science capabilities in a broad set of energy technology areas without any expectation of additional DOE investment in demonstration or deployment activities. Status and significance of technology mix will be judged by: Maturity: Technologies that have significant technical headroom yet could be demonstrated at commercial scale within a decade.Materiality: Technologies that could have a consequential impact on meeting national energy goals in two decades. Although not equally applicable across all activities in DOE’s portfolio, we define “consequential” as roughly one Quad per year of primary energy. Market Potential: Technologies that could be expected to be adopted by the relevant markets, understanding that these markets are driven by economics but shaped by public policy.DOE will consider targeted initiatives, including demonstration activities, for only technologies that meet all 3 Ms.15
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  Balancing the DOEEnergy Technology PortfolioBalancing TimescalesMaximize impact of programs on achieving national energy goals Longer-term perspective vs urgency of impact at scaleAccelerate innovation relevant to today’s energy technologies (now)Information (near-term impact with high leverage) Fundamental R&D and emerging technologies (longer-term or high-risk; high leverage)Reserve 20% of energy technology R&D portfolio for “out of the box” activitiesBalancing Energy Challenges (Security, Competitiveness, Environment)No single challenge trumps the other two Address all challenges to increase portfolio robustnessTransport contributes to all 3 challenges; stationary to 2 (but bigger impact on those 2)Be aware of domestic and global context and markets for energy technologiesBalancing Among StrategiesBudget: federal agencies, international sources, and the private sectorGive greater emphasis to transport sector, where innovation can impact all three energy challenges 16
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  The Department’s FiscalYear 2011 Energy Technology Budget, Categorized by Strategy17Total = $3.0BTransport = 26%Stationary = 74%
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  Additional Findings EnduringGroup within DOE w/Integrated Technical, Economic, and Policy Expertise Provides integrated understanding of technology, markets, business, social science, and policy for the planning and operation of technology programs.
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  Major functions: energyand technology policy analysis; economic impact assessments of R&D, industry studies, and program evaluation; and technology assessment and cost analysis. FACA: Under Secretary’s Advisory CouncilSpans across DOE’s four energy technology programs to promote integrated view of solving energy challenges and provide advice on QTR implementationSocial Science is Important Integrate applied social science into DOE’s technology programs and planning processes QTR Should Inform the Budget Process Integrate QTR decision criteria and priorities into continual development of program plans18
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  Continuation with FutureQTRs and QERsFuture QTR 4-year process conducted by DOEContinuous evaluation and adjustments in programs plans Uses DOE’s growing analytical capabilities to produce more detailed and comprehensive reportsFuture QER??Develops more coordinated and robust Federal energy policy through engagement of agencies and departments across Executive Branch Provide effective tool for Administration-wide coherence on energy and for dialogue with Congress on a coordinated legislative agenda Provide multiyear roadmap with integrated view of technology-neutral energy objectives Put forward anticipated Executive actions coordinated across multiple agenciesEstablish government-wide goals, coordinate actions across agencies, and identify the resources needed for the invention, translation, adoption, and diffusion of energy technologiesLed by the Executive Office of the President, with support from an Executive Secretariat provided by the Secretary of Energy19
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  Key Takeaways20There are“stories” for Transport and StationarySensible futures, DOE’s role, technology programs DOE’s energy technology portfolio is not optimally balancedStationary much larger than Transport Clean Power dominates Stationary (~50% of total)DOE needs integrated analytic capability (technology, business, market, policy, and social science)DOE’s informational and convening roles are highly valued by stakeholders, but under-valued within the Department (as compared to its technical capabilities)DOE needs to be more selective in its technology initiativesQTR establishes a framework for QER and future QTRs
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  Technology Assessments (VolumeII of QTR Report)21
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  Team @ QTRCapstone Workshop22
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  www.energy.gov/QTR