Session 20 Jörg Beckman

Session 20 Jörg Beckman

• 1.
  Ranking Performance: the impacton transport policy www.mobilityacademy.ch [email protected]
• 2.
  «The founding fatherof the Mobility Academy» Platform for future-oriented debates Think Tank Further Education „Better Mobility with Less Risks“
• 3.
  «Fields and parametersimpacting on transport» Local/regional National European policy policies Politics Policies Demography Economics Investments Supply strategies Economic, spatial, and Mobility services demographic development Internalisation of external costs Power Train Society and Technology, lifestyles innovations Work Mobility View Energy Traffic system supply management Climate Change Following IFMO 2007
• 4.
  Trendscanning Retrombilität 5
• 5.
  „How good istransport in Switzerland?“ Regular Rankings In partnership with other „Lead Agencies“ Commuicated via different electronic formats (blogs, podcasts, etc.)
• 6.
  How successful havewe been in reducing road accidents? For CH: Minus 50% every 10 years: – 2010: 300 – 2020: 150 – 2030: 75 – 2040: 38 – 2050: 19
• 7.
  Lu Fr -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 xe an m ce bo Be urg lg Po ium Capitols Sw rt itz uga er l Speeding l Sw and N Drink Driving et ed Divided Roads he e D lan r n Ageing Society en ds G ma er rk m an La y t Au via st r Sp ia N ain or w ay Ita Es ly to * G nia re e Fi ce n Sl lan ov d ak ia Seat Belt Wearing and Seat Belt Reminders Sl .K U ov . e Ire nia la Po nd C ze H lan ch un d Re ga pu ry b C lic yp ru s M Li al th ta ua ni a EU Road Safety Target: Even the good can still be better
• 8.
  Steps of Engagement Engagement Society at large Political Leaders Champions Science time
• 9.
  Can benchmarking replacelegislation? „A non mandatory global automotive fuel economy target of 140 gCO2/km for passenger cars should be adopted; Such a global fuel economy target could be used as an international benchmark to assess progress in the fuel efficiency of the global fleet of new motor vehicles.“
• 10.
  Which country hasthe most sustainable transport system? 11
• 11.
  Ecological, social andeconomic indicators Source: VTPI, 2008 12
• 12.
  «The art ofsetting a target/developing a vision» Measure Forecasting Backcasting Philosophy • Justification of policies • Exploring the future • Determinism/causal chains • Causilities/intentions Perspective • Dominant Trends • The need to solve a problem • Probabilities • Desired future • Marginal Changes • Considering human choice • Matching current trends • Strategic decisions Approach • Extrapolation • Idenfication of likely futures • Elasticities • Analysing the conditions Method • Econometric Models • Partial extrapolations • Mathematical Algorythms • Normative/dynamic models • Delphi/Expert interviews Example: European Example: Swedish Road Safety target Vision Zero Nach VIBAT 2006
• 13.
  Mobility 2030 accordingto the WBCSD: goals but no targets 1. Conventional emissions should not constitute a significant public health concern 2. Limit GHG emissions down to sustainable levels 3. Significantly reduce the number of deaths and injuries 4. Reduce transport-related noise 5. Mitigate congestion 6. Narrow the “mobility opportunity divides” 7. Preserve and enhance the mobility opportunities
• 14.
  Transport by 2050:The Good Mobility Index 1. Road Safety: minus 50% every decade 2. Air pollution: zeronising conventional emissions 3. GHG-emissions: flipping the coin – from 95% to 5% 4. Energy efficiency: 0,1kWh/km or better 5. Economic efficiency: “how many pkm/€” 6. Health: 50% of all trips below 3km human co-powered 7. Space consumption: capping daily distances at current levels
• 15.
  Good Mobility: TheBasic Formula Transport Volume [pkm] GM = GHG-Emissions [t CO2] + Deaths + Infrastructure Investment [€] Ecological Social Economic sustainability sustainability sustainability 16
• 16.
  Good (Road) Mobility Transport VolumeR [pkm] GMR = GHG-EmissionsR [t CO2] + DeathsR + Infrastr. Inv. & Maint. R[€] 25 €/t 1.000.000€/death € sustainability [pkm/€] 17
• 17.
  GMIR – Afirst approximation 18
• 18.
  GMIR – Areinfrastructure costs too high in Switzerland? 19
• 19.
  GMIR – AreGHG-Emissions and deaths undervalued? 20
• 20.
  When do rankingshave an impact? • Get the scientists to agree • Link the rankings to a target • Paint a picture of tomorrow • Engage society • Involve the Champions and encourage the „Loosers“ • Identify and Confront those resposible/in charge • Talk about it a lot • Get the timing right • Propose measures (legislation, technolgies etc.) • Continue...