MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-1
XYZ 01/13/15
Terrorist Scenario – South East Asia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-2
XYZ 01/13/15
Terrorism
• Al Qaeda linked bombing of Australian Embassy in
Indonesia on Sep 8, 2004
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-3
XYZ 01/13/15
JI comments…
• "We decided to settle accounts with Australia,
one of the worst enemies of God and Islam ...
• "We advise all Australians in Indonesia to
leave, or we will make it a grave for them,
God willing
• Australian government has ignored previous
warnings and taken part "in the war against
our brothers in Iraq and supported the
invading forces."
Jemaah Islamiya (JI) - Southeast Asian arm of al Qaeda
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-4
XYZ 01/13/15
Terrorist Scenario – Indonesia
• Regional Summary
• Current Threat Conditions
• U.S. National Security
Objectives
– CINC Operational Objectives
• Blue Force Structure
– ASEAN Member Force Structure
– Coalition Force Structure
– Force Employment
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-5
XYZ 01/13/15
Regional Summary
• Formerly Dutch East-Indies
• Of 17,000 islands, 6,000 are inhabited
• East-west expanse: 3,200 miles;
equivalent distance = Ireland to Iran
• 200nm Exclusive Maritime Economic Zone
• 12nm Maritime Territorial Zone
• 240 million people – 19 languages
• Muslim – 88%; Christian – 8%; Other – 3%
Indonesia – A country of unrest; A country vital to the world economy
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-6
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
Sukarno
1945-1967
• United S.E. Asia/Island ethnic groups through diplomacy
backed by force at the end of WWII
• Assumed “Presidency” maintaining control through military
• Lost conflict to gain Malaysia as part of Indonesia
• Internal unrest and a failed military coup in 1966 ultimately
removed him from power the following year
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-7
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
Suharto
1967-1998
Sukarno
1945-1967
• Senior military officer under Sukarno
• Used military to control dissident groups seeking
more autonomy/independence from the central
government
• Won seven “unopposed” elections until economic
catastrophe and internal dissatisfaction with
military controls forced him to step down
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-8
XYZ 01/13/15
Habibie
1998-1999
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
Suharto
1967-1998
Sukarno
1945-1967
• Suharto’s Vice-President and
hand-picked successor
• Stepped in to run the
Government until the 1999
elections could be held
• The country’s first truly
democratic elections
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-9
XYZ 01/13/15
Habibie
1998-1999
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
Suharto
1967-1998
Wahid
1999-2001
Sukarno
1945-1967
• Unable to revive the economy,
separatist activity increased
• Military abuses cause intense
protest & migration of refugees
• Muslim radical groups
strengthen their foothold
• Parliament removes him from
office
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-10
XYZ 01/13/15
Habibie
1998-1999
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
Suharto
1967-1998
Wahid
1999-2001
Sukarno
1945-1967
Sukarnoputri
2001-2004
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-11
XYZ 01/13/15
Current President
• Indonesia’s first-ever directly elected President
• Pledged to outlaw al Qaeda linked JI
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-12
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-13
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-14
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-15
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-16
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-17
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy
Indian Ocean
Pacific
Ocean
South
China
Sea
Malacca Strait
• 600nm long, 17 to 54m deep
• Primary conduit for Indo-
Europe to E. Asia maritime
traffic
– Virtually all E. Asia oil shipped
through the Malacca Straits
(36% of all ship traffic)
– Over $1.1 trillion (U.S.) in
goods transit annually
– 50,000 ships transit each
year; 137/day
• 60% of Malaysia/Indonesia
fish catch comes from
Malacca Straits
Malacca
Strait
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-18
XYZ 01/13/15
Pacific
Ocean
South
China
Sea
Sunda Strait
• Secondary conduit for Indo-
Europe to E. Asia maritime
traffic
– Adds 2 sailing days to
route
– Can not absorb overflow
should Malacca Strait
close
Sunda Strait
Indian Ocean
Malacca
Strait
Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-19
XYZ 01/13/15
Pacific
Ocean
South
China
Sea
Indian Ocean
Malacca
Strait
Lombok/Makassar Straits
• Primary conduit for Indo-
Europe to Pacific maritime
traffic
– Adds 5 sailing days to
route should Malacca
Strait close
• Lombok Strait handles all
shipping traffic between
Australia and East Asia
Sunda Strait
Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy
Lombok
Strait
Makassar Strait
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-20
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia Al Qaeda Connection
•Guerrillas of Free Aceh Movement - GAM
– Muslim separatist, 4,000 strong demand
independence of Aceh Province
– Hosted bin Laden’s #2, Ayman Al-
Zawahiri & al Qaeda’s former military
chief, Mohammed Atef in June 2000
•Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)
– Demand creation of an Islamic state
consisting of portions of Thailand,
Malaysia, Philippines, & Indonesia
– Responsible for Christmas 2000 & Bali
bombings
– Lieutenants trained in Camp Chaldun,
Afghanistan; created sleeper cells across
Indonesia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-21
XYZ 01/13/15
Threat Summary
• Indonesia intelligence believes GAM and
JI have formed a cooperative alliance
– The alliance has been independently
confirmed by CIA operatives in-country
GAM’s objective is to gain world recognition for
their 28-year independence struggle & force the
Government to the bargaining table or replace the
current administration with one that will negotiate
JI wants to devastate the Indonesian economy
prior to the 2004 general election so that the
administration will topple or be unelectable
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-22
XYZ 01/13/15
Threat Summary
• GAM and JI strategies may be designed to
take advantage of the recent merging of
Islamic political parties in Indonesia
– The Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and
the National Awakening Party (PKB) have
consolidated party platforms for the 2004
election
Pledge to fight rampant corruption, particularly at the
local and provincial levels where Government officials
and the military receive kickbacks from illicit gambling,
prostitution, and drug businesses
Pledge to build a “religious police force” to enforce
Sharia-based laws
– Combined, the two parties command and
unprecedented 35 to 40% of the voters which
will overcome the four remaining parties
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-23
XYZ 01/13/15
GAM/JI Course of Action
• Disrupt Indonesia’s oil and gas and tourist industry
– Targets:
 Foreign hotels, night clubs, and tourist attractions across the
country and random kidnapping of foreigners
 Off-shore oil rigs in Malacca Strait
 Natural gas liquidization plants in Aceh
• Disrupt world shipping traffic in the straits
– Methods:
 Piracy
 Ship-to-shore missiles/artillery
 Mine-laying
 Scuttling in the channel
• Intelligence has determined Aceh and JI intend to
simultaneously disrupt commercial shipping in all
primary straits in S.E. Asia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-24
XYZ 01/13/15
Malacca Strait
Malacca Strait Closure
• Would effect over 50% of the worlds shipping vessels
• Would require all of the world’s excess
shipping tonnage to make up the lost tonnage
due to increased number of sailing days through
alternate routes
Shoreline strike zone
Narrowest Point:
Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-25
XYZ 01/13/15
Malacca Strait
Shoreline strike zone
Narrowest Point:
Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-26
XYZ 01/13/15
Malacca Strait
Shoreline strike zone
Narrowest Point:
Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-27
XYZ 01/13/15
Malacca Strait
Indonesia
Malaysia
Narrowest Point:
Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
Shoreline strike zone
Singapore
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-28
XYZ 01/13/15
Alternate Routes
Sunda
Strait
Lombok Strait
Shoreline strike zone
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-29
XYZ 01/13/15
Sunda Strait
Sunda
Strait
Lombok Strait
Sunda
Strait
Java
Sumatra
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-30
XYZ 01/13/15
Lombok Strait
Sunda
Strait
Lombok Strait
Lombok
Strait
Bali
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-31
XYZ 01/13/15
U.S. National Objectives
• Assist South East Asia nation’s efforts to
identify and remove terrorist threats within
their borders
• Prevent South East Asia terrorist
organizations from closing Indonesia’s sea
lanes and creating a world economic crisis
• Protect commercial ships transiting
Indonesia’s sea lanes traffic from terrorist
attack thereby minimizing costly insurance
increases
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-32
XYZ 01/13/15
U.S. National Strategy
• Support the Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN) to keep the sea
lanes open
– ASEAN nations monitor ports and shoreline
access to straits
– ASEAN coalition partners (including the U.S.)
form picket lines at entrances to the straits
• Through bi-lateral agreements support
Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysia military
and domestic police forces in coordinated
counter-terrorism operations against GAM
& JI
– Economic aid, law enforcement assistance,
and cooperative military counter-terrorist
operations
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-33
XYZ 01/13/15
ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane
Protection
• Association of South East Asia Nations
providing forces to maintain sea lanes
– Indonesia
– Malaysia
– Philippines
– Singapore
– Thailand
• Coalition partners providing forces to
maintain sea lanes
– Australia
– Britain
– China
– Japan
– United States
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-34
XYZ 01/13/15
ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane
Protection
Coalition Combatants
Coalition Combatants
Coalition Combatants
Coalition Combatants
USCINCPAC
PACAF
Combatants
PACFLT
Combatants
SOCOM
Combatants
CINC JTF-Seal
Coalition Commands
Coalition Commands
Coalition CommandsCoalition Commands
Operational & Tactical Control
USSTATCOMUSTRANSCOM
Supporting CINCs
Tactical Control
Operational
Control
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-35
XYZ 01/13/15
Sea Lane Protection AOR
Indonesia
ASEAN
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
China & Japan
Australia
United States
Great Britain
ASEAN Coalition
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-36
XYZ 01/13/15
Sea Lane Protection – U.S. Forces
Malacca Strait AOR
Frigate (FFG-7) 2 Mouth of Malacca Strait
Destroyer (DD) 3 Mouth of Malacca Strait
MCS-12 1 Malacca Strait
- CH-53E helos 8
- SAR helos 2
- EOD team 1
MCM 2 Malacca Strait
SSN (Fast Attack) 1 Malacca Strait
P-3 3 Singapore
Spec. Forces Team 1 Assigned to Indonesia
Marine Spec. Forces
Company to board ships
MC2A* 2 Singapore
KC-10* 2 Singapore
Makassar Strait AOR
PACFLT
Assets
PACAF
Assets
Frigate (FFG-7) 2 North of Makassar Strait
Destroyer (DD) 2 North of Makassar Strait
MCS-12 (retired) 1 Makassar Strait
- CH-53E helos 8
- SAR helos 2
- EOD team 1
MCM 2 Makassar Strait
SSN (Fast Attack) 1 Makassar Strait
P-3 3 Mactan AB, Philippines
Spec. Forces Team 1 Assigned to Indonesia
Marine Spec. Forces
Company to board ships
MC2A* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines
KC-135* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines
SOCOM
Assets
Platform Qty Location Platform Qty Location
*MC2A and Tankers also support U.S. Counter-Terrorist operations
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-37
XYZ 01/13/15
Sea Lane Protection – Coalition Forces
Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class 2 South of Lombok Strait
Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 3 South of Lombok Strait
Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Bandicoot class 2 Lombok Strait
Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class 1 North of Lombok Strait
Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 3 Nouth of Lombok Strait
Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class 2 Flores Sea
Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class 2 Flores Sea
Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 6 Flores Sea
Off-shore PG (PBG) 4 Flores Sea
Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Huon class 2 Flores Sea
Maritime Patrol Aircraft (AP-3C) 8 Darwin, Australia
Refueling Aircraft (KC-135) 3 Darwin, Australia
Frigate (FFG) – Type 23 Duke Class 2 South of Sunda Strait
Frigate (FFG) – Type 22 Broadsword Class 1 South of Sunda Strait
Destroyer (DDG) – Type 42 2 North of Sunda Strait
Mine Countermeasures (MCMV) – Sandown Class 2 Sundra Strait
Frigate (FFG) Type 53HT-H – Jianghu IV Class 3 South China Sea
Destroyer (DDG) Type 51 – Luda II Class 2 South China Sea
Patrol Boat (PBG) Type 21 – Huangfeng Class 5 South China Sea
Frigate (FFG) – Mursame Class 2 South China Sea
Destroyer (DDK) – Takanami Class 2 South China Sea
Maritime Patrol (P-3C) 5 Kuching, Malaysia
Aussie
Assets
British
Assets
Platform Qty Location
Chinese
Assets
Japanese
Assets
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-38
XYZ 01/13/15
Sea Lane Protection – ASEAN Forces
Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class 2 South Entrance to Malacca Strait
Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class 4 South Entrance to Malacca Strait
Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class 8 Malacca Strait
Patrol Boat (PB) – Kujang Class 5 Malacca Strait
High Speed Patrol Craft – Kodjo Class 12 Malacca Strait
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor-II Class 3 Malacca Strait & South Entrance
Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22B Searchmaster SAR 5 Malacca Strait
Frigate (FFG) – Samadikun Class 3 Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class 6 Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Patrol Boat (PB) – DKN 504 Class 10 Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor II Class 3 Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22SL Searchmaster SAR 6 Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class 2 South Entrance to Makassar Strait
Corvette – Fatahilah Class 3 South Entrance to Makassar Strait
Fast Attack Boat – Sibaru Class 6 Makassar Strait & South Entrance
Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class 8 Makassar Strait
Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22 Searchmaster SAR 8 Makassar Strait
Frigate (FFG) – Lekiu Class 2 Malacca Stait
Corvette – Kasturi Class 2 Malacca Strait
Patrol Boat (PB) – Sri Selangor Class 16 Malacca Strait
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Mahamiru Class 2 Malacca Strait
Maritime Patrol Aircraft – B200T Super King Air SAR 4 Malacca Strait
Indonesia
Assets
Platform Qty Location
Malaysia
Assets
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-39
XYZ 01/13/15
Counter-Terrorism Operations
Thai Combatants
Malaysian Combatants
Indonesian Combatants
USSOCOM
SOCOM
Combatants
PACAF
Combatants
Thai Commands
Malaysian Commands
Indonesian Commands
Operational & Tactical Control
USSTATCOMUSTRANSCOM
Supporting
CINCs
Operational &
Tactical Control
Tactical
Coordination
Operational
Coordination
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-40
XYZ 01/13/15
Counter-Terrorism Task Force
AOR
JI: Malaysia
JI: Thailand
JI: Central Sulawesi, Indonesia
GAM: Aceh, Indonesia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-41
XYZ 01/13/15
U.S. Force Structure – Counter Terrorism
Aceh/Malacca Strait AOR
MC2A* 2 Singapore
E-2C 2 Singapore
KC-10* 2 Singapore
Rivet Joint 1 Singapore
F-15E 12 Penang, Malaysia
RQ-1B,Predator-B 1(4) Penang, Malaysia
RQ-7, Shadow 600 4(3) BandaAceh
Aceh, Indonesia
Sulawesi/Makassar Strait AOR
SOCOM
Assets
Air
Assets
MC2A* 1 Mactan AB, Philippines
E-2C 2 Mactan AB, Philippines
KC-135* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines
Rivet Joint 1 Singapore
F/A-18 8 Mactan AB, Philippines
F-16 8 Mactan AB, Philippines
RQ-1B, Predator B 1(4) Ujungpandang, Sulawesi
RQ-7, Shadow 600 2(3) Poso, Sulawesi,
Indonesia
SOCOM Unit Qty Assigned with:
Special Forces Team 2 Kopassus, Combat
Group I, - Aceh
Special Forces Team 1 Kopassus, Combat
Group V (Counter-
Terrorism) - Aceh
ISR Coordination Team 1 Kopassus, Combat
Group IV (Intel) -
Jakarta
Special Forces Team 2 21st
GKN Sungei
Udang, Malaysia
Special Forces Team 1 1st
Inf. Div.
Changwat Trang,
Thailand
SOCOM Unit Qty Assigned with:
Special Forces Team 2 Kopassus, Combat
Group II, Sulawesi
* Same assets are supporting USCINCPAC Sea Lane Protection effort
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-42
XYZ 01/13/15
MC2A Employment
Predator
Shadow
600
JTIDS
E-2C
F-15E
MC2A
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-43
XYZ 01/13/15
100
300
200
400
500
100 200 300 400 500
B1
B2/CAOC
B3
E2-C
RC-135W
M
C
2A KC-135R
F-22
(4)
Predator A
Predator #2 /
Predator B
600
NM
USN Firescout
Orbit Areas
SOCOM Teams
Bases
Predator Orbits
Firescout Orbits
Kopassus Combat
Group I
Kopassus Combat
Group V
1st
Inf /Special
Ops
21 GKN
Shadow UAV
Orbits
Terrorist
Bombing
N
S
HSV-2
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-44
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
SOCOM Assets
KC-10
Singapore
M
C
2A
RJ
Shadow UAV
E-2C
Predator-B
SOCOM Teams
21 GKN
21 GKN
1st
Inf. Div./Special Ops
F-22(4)
Kopassus
Combat
Group V
Kopassus
Combat
Group 1
F-15E (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
MC2A
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-45
XYZ 01/13/15
Population Density
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
Kalimantan,
Indonesia Global Hawk
(SIGINT)
21 GKN
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
KC-135
F/A-18 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Mactan AB, PI
MC2A
F/A-18 (4)
E-2C
18001700
Shadow UAV
Predator-A/B
SOCOM Teams
MC2A
1600
Predator A
0
Bases - GS
Predator A
-100
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-46
XYZ 01/13/15
Population Density
SOCOM Assets
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
Kalimantan,
Indonesia Global Hawk
21 GKN
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
KC-135
F/A-18 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Mactan AB, PI
MC2A
F/A-18 (4)
E-2C
Shadow UAV
Predator-B
SOCOM Teams
MC2A
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-47
XYZ 01/13/15
Population Density
SOCOM Assets
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
Kalimantan,
Indonesia Global Hawk
(SIGINT)
21 GKN
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
KC-135
F/A-18 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Mactan AB, PI
MC2A
F/A-18 (4)
E-2C
Shadow UAV
Predator-A/B
SOCOM Teams
MC2A
Ujungpandang
(UAV Base)
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-48
XYZ 01/13/15
Indonesia
Malaysia
SOCOM Assets
KC-10
Signapore
M
C
2A
RJ
Shadow UAV
E-2C
Predator-A/B
SOCOM Teams
21 GKN
21 GKN
1st
Inf. Div./Special Ops
F-22(4)
Kopassus
Combat
Group V
Kopassus
Combat
Group 1
F-22 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
MC2A
Thailand
G
-H
aw
k
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-49
XYZ 01/13/15
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
100
200
300
400
500
B1 – Paya Lebar
B2 – Penang
B3 – Polonia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-50
XYZ 01/13/15
100
300
200
400
500
100 200 300 400 500
B1
B2
B3
E2-C
RC-135W
M
C
2A
KC-135R
F-22
(4)
Predator A
Predator A
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-51
XYZ 01/13/15
Population Density
SOCOM Assets
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
Kalimantan,
Indonesia Global Hawk
(SIGINT)
21 GKN
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
KC-135
F/A-18 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Mactan AB, PI
MC2A
F/A-18 (4)
E-2C
Shadow UAV
Predator-A/B
SOCOM Teams
MC2A
Ujungpandang
(UAV Base)
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-52
XYZ 01/13/15
Western Theater
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
100
400
300
200
500
500
Base 1

Socom indonesia scenario_jtrs

  • 1.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-1 XYZ01/13/15 Terrorist Scenario – South East Asia
  • 2.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-2 XYZ01/13/15 Terrorism • Al Qaeda linked bombing of Australian Embassy in Indonesia on Sep 8, 2004
  • 3.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-3 XYZ01/13/15 JI comments… • "We decided to settle accounts with Australia, one of the worst enemies of God and Islam ... • "We advise all Australians in Indonesia to leave, or we will make it a grave for them, God willing • Australian government has ignored previous warnings and taken part "in the war against our brothers in Iraq and supported the invading forces." Jemaah Islamiya (JI) - Southeast Asian arm of al Qaeda
  • 4.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-4 XYZ01/13/15 Terrorist Scenario – Indonesia • Regional Summary • Current Threat Conditions • U.S. National Security Objectives – CINC Operational Objectives • Blue Force Structure – ASEAN Member Force Structure – Coalition Force Structure – Force Employment
  • 5.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-5 XYZ01/13/15 Regional Summary • Formerly Dutch East-Indies • Of 17,000 islands, 6,000 are inhabited • East-west expanse: 3,200 miles; equivalent distance = Ireland to Iran • 200nm Exclusive Maritime Economic Zone • 12nm Maritime Territorial Zone • 240 million people – 19 languages • Muslim – 88%; Christian – 8%; Other – 3% Indonesia – A country of unrest; A country vital to the world economy
  • 6.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-6 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Sukarno 1945-1967 • United S.E. Asia/Island ethnic groups through diplomacy backed by force at the end of WWII • Assumed “Presidency” maintaining control through military • Lost conflict to gain Malaysia as part of Indonesia • Internal unrest and a failed military coup in 1966 ultimately removed him from power the following year
  • 7.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-7 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Senior military officer under Sukarno • Used military to control dissident groups seeking more autonomy/independence from the central government • Won seven “unopposed” elections until economic catastrophe and internal dissatisfaction with military controls forced him to step down
  • 8.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-8 XYZ01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Suharto’s Vice-President and hand-picked successor • Stepped in to run the Government until the 1999 elections could be held • The country’s first truly democratic elections
  • 9.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-9 XYZ01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Wahid 1999-2001 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Unable to revive the economy, separatist activity increased • Military abuses cause intense protest & migration of refugees • Muslim radical groups strengthen their foothold • Parliament removes him from office
  • 10.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-10 XYZ01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Wahid 1999-2001 Sukarno 1945-1967 Sukarnoputri 2001-2004
  • 11.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-11 XYZ01/13/15 Current President • Indonesia’s first-ever directly elected President • Pledged to outlaw al Qaeda linked JI
  • 12.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-12 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 13.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-13 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 14.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-14 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 15.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-15 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 16.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-16 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 17.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-17 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean South China Sea Malacca Strait • 600nm long, 17 to 54m deep • Primary conduit for Indo- Europe to E. Asia maritime traffic – Virtually all E. Asia oil shipped through the Malacca Straits (36% of all ship traffic) – Over $1.1 trillion (U.S.) in goods transit annually – 50,000 ships transit each year; 137/day • 60% of Malaysia/Indonesia fish catch comes from Malacca Straits Malacca Strait
  • 18.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-18 XYZ01/13/15 Pacific Ocean South China Sea Sunda Strait • Secondary conduit for Indo- Europe to E. Asia maritime traffic – Adds 2 sailing days to route – Can not absorb overflow should Malacca Strait close Sunda Strait Indian Ocean Malacca Strait Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy
  • 19.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-19 XYZ01/13/15 Pacific Ocean South China Sea Indian Ocean Malacca Strait Lombok/Makassar Straits • Primary conduit for Indo- Europe to Pacific maritime traffic – Adds 5 sailing days to route should Malacca Strait close • Lombok Strait handles all shipping traffic between Australia and East Asia Sunda Strait Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Lombok Strait Makassar Strait
  • 20.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-20 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia Al Qaeda Connection •Guerrillas of Free Aceh Movement - GAM – Muslim separatist, 4,000 strong demand independence of Aceh Province – Hosted bin Laden’s #2, Ayman Al- Zawahiri & al Qaeda’s former military chief, Mohammed Atef in June 2000 •Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) – Demand creation of an Islamic state consisting of portions of Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, & Indonesia – Responsible for Christmas 2000 & Bali bombings – Lieutenants trained in Camp Chaldun, Afghanistan; created sleeper cells across Indonesia
  • 21.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-21 XYZ01/13/15 Threat Summary • Indonesia intelligence believes GAM and JI have formed a cooperative alliance – The alliance has been independently confirmed by CIA operatives in-country GAM’s objective is to gain world recognition for their 28-year independence struggle & force the Government to the bargaining table or replace the current administration with one that will negotiate JI wants to devastate the Indonesian economy prior to the 2004 general election so that the administration will topple or be unelectable
  • 22.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-22 XYZ01/13/15 Threat Summary • GAM and JI strategies may be designed to take advantage of the recent merging of Islamic political parties in Indonesia – The Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have consolidated party platforms for the 2004 election Pledge to fight rampant corruption, particularly at the local and provincial levels where Government officials and the military receive kickbacks from illicit gambling, prostitution, and drug businesses Pledge to build a “religious police force” to enforce Sharia-based laws – Combined, the two parties command and unprecedented 35 to 40% of the voters which will overcome the four remaining parties
  • 23.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-23 XYZ01/13/15 GAM/JI Course of Action • Disrupt Indonesia’s oil and gas and tourist industry – Targets:  Foreign hotels, night clubs, and tourist attractions across the country and random kidnapping of foreigners  Off-shore oil rigs in Malacca Strait  Natural gas liquidization plants in Aceh • Disrupt world shipping traffic in the straits – Methods:  Piracy  Ship-to-shore missiles/artillery  Mine-laying  Scuttling in the channel • Intelligence has determined Aceh and JI intend to simultaneously disrupt commercial shipping in all primary straits in S.E. Asia
  • 24.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-24 XYZ01/13/15 Malacca Strait Malacca Strait Closure • Would effect over 50% of the worlds shipping vessels • Would require all of the world’s excess shipping tonnage to make up the lost tonnage due to increased number of sailing days through alternate routes Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
  • 25.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-25 XYZ01/13/15 Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
  • 26.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-26 XYZ01/13/15 Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
  • 27.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-27 XYZ01/13/15 Malacca Strait Indonesia Malaysia Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm Shoreline strike zone Singapore
  • 28.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-28 XYZ01/13/15 Alternate Routes Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Shoreline strike zone
  • 29.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-29 XYZ01/13/15 Sunda Strait Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Sunda Strait Java Sumatra
  • 30.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-30 XYZ01/13/15 Lombok Strait Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Lombok Strait Bali
  • 31.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-31 XYZ01/13/15 U.S. National Objectives • Assist South East Asia nation’s efforts to identify and remove terrorist threats within their borders • Prevent South East Asia terrorist organizations from closing Indonesia’s sea lanes and creating a world economic crisis • Protect commercial ships transiting Indonesia’s sea lanes traffic from terrorist attack thereby minimizing costly insurance increases
  • 32.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-32 XYZ01/13/15 U.S. National Strategy • Support the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to keep the sea lanes open – ASEAN nations monitor ports and shoreline access to straits – ASEAN coalition partners (including the U.S.) form picket lines at entrances to the straits • Through bi-lateral agreements support Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysia military and domestic police forces in coordinated counter-terrorism operations against GAM & JI – Economic aid, law enforcement assistance, and cooperative military counter-terrorist operations
  • 33.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-33 XYZ01/13/15 ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection • Association of South East Asia Nations providing forces to maintain sea lanes – Indonesia – Malaysia – Philippines – Singapore – Thailand • Coalition partners providing forces to maintain sea lanes – Australia – Britain – China – Japan – United States
  • 34.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-34 XYZ01/13/15 ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants USCINCPAC PACAF Combatants PACFLT Combatants SOCOM Combatants CINC JTF-Seal Coalition Commands Coalition Commands Coalition CommandsCoalition Commands Operational & Tactical Control USSTATCOMUSTRANSCOM Supporting CINCs Tactical Control Operational Control
  • 35.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-35 XYZ01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection AOR Indonesia ASEAN Malaysia Thailand Philippines China & Japan Australia United States Great Britain ASEAN Coalition
  • 36.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-36 XYZ01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – U.S. Forces Malacca Strait AOR Frigate (FFG-7) 2 Mouth of Malacca Strait Destroyer (DD) 3 Mouth of Malacca Strait MCS-12 1 Malacca Strait - CH-53E helos 8 - SAR helos 2 - EOD team 1 MCM 2 Malacca Strait SSN (Fast Attack) 1 Malacca Strait P-3 3 Singapore Spec. Forces Team 1 Assigned to Indonesia Marine Spec. Forces Company to board ships MC2A* 2 Singapore KC-10* 2 Singapore Makassar Strait AOR PACFLT Assets PACAF Assets Frigate (FFG-7) 2 North of Makassar Strait Destroyer (DD) 2 North of Makassar Strait MCS-12 (retired) 1 Makassar Strait - CH-53E helos 8 - SAR helos 2 - EOD team 1 MCM 2 Makassar Strait SSN (Fast Attack) 1 Makassar Strait P-3 3 Mactan AB, Philippines Spec. Forces Team 1 Assigned to Indonesia Marine Spec. Forces Company to board ships MC2A* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines KC-135* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines SOCOM Assets Platform Qty Location Platform Qty Location *MC2A and Tankers also support U.S. Counter-Terrorist operations
  • 37.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-37 XYZ01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – Coalition Forces Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class 2 South of Lombok Strait Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 3 South of Lombok Strait Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Bandicoot class 2 Lombok Strait Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class 1 North of Lombok Strait Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 3 Nouth of Lombok Strait Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class 2 Flores Sea Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class 2 Flores Sea Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 6 Flores Sea Off-shore PG (PBG) 4 Flores Sea Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Huon class 2 Flores Sea Maritime Patrol Aircraft (AP-3C) 8 Darwin, Australia Refueling Aircraft (KC-135) 3 Darwin, Australia Frigate (FFG) – Type 23 Duke Class 2 South of Sunda Strait Frigate (FFG) – Type 22 Broadsword Class 1 South of Sunda Strait Destroyer (DDG) – Type 42 2 North of Sunda Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCMV) – Sandown Class 2 Sundra Strait Frigate (FFG) Type 53HT-H – Jianghu IV Class 3 South China Sea Destroyer (DDG) Type 51 – Luda II Class 2 South China Sea Patrol Boat (PBG) Type 21 – Huangfeng Class 5 South China Sea Frigate (FFG) – Mursame Class 2 South China Sea Destroyer (DDK) – Takanami Class 2 South China Sea Maritime Patrol (P-3C) 5 Kuching, Malaysia Aussie Assets British Assets Platform Qty Location Chinese Assets Japanese Assets
  • 38.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-38 XYZ01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – ASEAN Forces Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class 2 South Entrance to Malacca Strait Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class 4 South Entrance to Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class 8 Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Kujang Class 5 Malacca Strait High Speed Patrol Craft – Kodjo Class 12 Malacca Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor-II Class 3 Malacca Strait & South Entrance Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22B Searchmaster SAR 5 Malacca Strait Frigate (FFG) – Samadikun Class 3 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class 6 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Patrol Boat (PB) – DKN 504 Class 10 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor II Class 3 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22SL Searchmaster SAR 6 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class 2 South Entrance to Makassar Strait Corvette – Fatahilah Class 3 South Entrance to Makassar Strait Fast Attack Boat – Sibaru Class 6 Makassar Strait & South Entrance Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class 8 Makassar Strait Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22 Searchmaster SAR 8 Makassar Strait Frigate (FFG) – Lekiu Class 2 Malacca Stait Corvette – Kasturi Class 2 Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Sri Selangor Class 16 Malacca Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Mahamiru Class 2 Malacca Strait Maritime Patrol Aircraft – B200T Super King Air SAR 4 Malacca Strait Indonesia Assets Platform Qty Location Malaysia Assets
  • 39.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-39 XYZ01/13/15 Counter-Terrorism Operations Thai Combatants Malaysian Combatants Indonesian Combatants USSOCOM SOCOM Combatants PACAF Combatants Thai Commands Malaysian Commands Indonesian Commands Operational & Tactical Control USSTATCOMUSTRANSCOM Supporting CINCs Operational & Tactical Control Tactical Coordination Operational Coordination
  • 40.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-40 XYZ01/13/15 Counter-Terrorism Task Force AOR JI: Malaysia JI: Thailand JI: Central Sulawesi, Indonesia GAM: Aceh, Indonesia
  • 41.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-41 XYZ01/13/15 U.S. Force Structure – Counter Terrorism Aceh/Malacca Strait AOR MC2A* 2 Singapore E-2C 2 Singapore KC-10* 2 Singapore Rivet Joint 1 Singapore F-15E 12 Penang, Malaysia RQ-1B,Predator-B 1(4) Penang, Malaysia RQ-7, Shadow 600 4(3) BandaAceh Aceh, Indonesia Sulawesi/Makassar Strait AOR SOCOM Assets Air Assets MC2A* 1 Mactan AB, Philippines E-2C 2 Mactan AB, Philippines KC-135* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines Rivet Joint 1 Singapore F/A-18 8 Mactan AB, Philippines F-16 8 Mactan AB, Philippines RQ-1B, Predator B 1(4) Ujungpandang, Sulawesi RQ-7, Shadow 600 2(3) Poso, Sulawesi, Indonesia SOCOM Unit Qty Assigned with: Special Forces Team 2 Kopassus, Combat Group I, - Aceh Special Forces Team 1 Kopassus, Combat Group V (Counter- Terrorism) - Aceh ISR Coordination Team 1 Kopassus, Combat Group IV (Intel) - Jakarta Special Forces Team 2 21st GKN Sungei Udang, Malaysia Special Forces Team 1 1st Inf. Div. Changwat Trang, Thailand SOCOM Unit Qty Assigned with: Special Forces Team 2 Kopassus, Combat Group II, Sulawesi * Same assets are supporting USCINCPAC Sea Lane Protection effort
  • 42.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-42 XYZ01/13/15 MC2A Employment Predator Shadow 600 JTIDS E-2C F-15E MC2A
  • 43.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-43 XYZ01/13/15 100 300 200 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 B1 B2/CAOC B3 E2-C RC-135W M C 2A KC-135R F-22 (4) Predator A Predator #2 / Predator B 600 NM USN Firescout Orbit Areas SOCOM Teams Bases Predator Orbits Firescout Orbits Kopassus Combat Group I Kopassus Combat Group V 1st Inf /Special Ops 21 GKN Shadow UAV Orbits Terrorist Bombing N S HSV-2
  • 44.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-44 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand SOCOM Assets KC-10 Singapore M C 2A RJ Shadow UAV E-2C Predator-B SOCOM Teams 21 GKN 21 GKN 1st Inf. Div./Special Ops F-22(4) Kopassus Combat Group V Kopassus Combat Group 1 F-15E (4) 30 min Gnd Alert MC2A
  • 45.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-45 XYZ01/13/15 Population Density Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C 18001700 Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A 1600 Predator A 0 Bases - GS Predator A -100
  • 46.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-46 XYZ01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-B SOCOM Teams MC2A
  • 47.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-47 XYZ01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A Ujungpandang (UAV Base)
  • 48.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-48 XYZ01/13/15 Indonesia Malaysia SOCOM Assets KC-10 Signapore M C 2A RJ Shadow UAV E-2C Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams 21 GKN 21 GKN 1st Inf. Div./Special Ops F-22(4) Kopassus Combat Group V Kopassus Combat Group 1 F-22 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert MC2A Thailand G -H aw k
  • 49.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-49 XYZ01/13/15 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 100 200 300 400 500 B1 – Paya Lebar B2 – Penang B3 – Polonia
  • 50.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-50 XYZ01/13/15 100 300 200 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 B1 B2 B3 E2-C RC-135W M C 2A KC-135R F-22 (4) Predator A Predator A
  • 51.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-51 XYZ01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A Ujungpandang (UAV Base)
  • 52.
    MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-52 XYZ01/13/15 Western Theater 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 100 400 300 200 500 500 Base 1