SSAI Webinar - Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change - Sep 7 2012

SSAI Webinar - Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change - Sep 7 2012

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  Global Food Security:Achieving food security in the face of climate change The Role of Statisticians and Statistical Science Dr Bronwyn Harch| Deputy Director 7th September, 2012 SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP
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  Food security existswhen all people, at all times, have physical, social & economic access to sufficient, safe & nutritious food to meet their dietary needs & food preferences for an active & healthy life. United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 2
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  Key Challenges Growing from 7 billion people today to 9 billion by 2050 1.5 billion overweight 1 in 6 undernourished 1.3 billion tonnes 200+ million more of food wasted hungry after 2007/8 each year price spikes 1.5 billion depend 1.4 billion live on on degrading land <USD$1.25 / day 12 million ha of additional 7.5 billion USD lost to agricultural land degraded/year extreme weather in 2010 Beddington et al. 2011 available at www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 3
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  Key Elements toFood Insecurity Photo: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)  Converging threats from climate change, population growth & unsustainable resource use  Resource competition, land degradation & greenhouse gas emissions  Food price volatility & conflicts associated with food shortages Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 4
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  Commission on SustainableAgriculture & Climate Change • Established by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) • Program on Climate Change, Agriculture & Food Security (CCAFS) with support from the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development (GDPRD) • 13 eminent natural and social scientists from around the world • Evidence-based policy recommendations: A ‘road map’ for policy makers Released in November 2011 • Full Report released 28th March 2012 http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission/ Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 5
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  Major Findings  Business as usual will not bring Photo: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) food security & environmental sustainability  Need to simultaneously address global agriculture within the context of the food system & climate change  The interconnected nature of these challenges demands an integrated management approach  The world’s poor are less resilient Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 6
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  Seven Recommendations 1. Integratefood security & sustainable agriculture into global & national policies 2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture & food systems in the next decade 3. Target populations & sectors most vulnerable to climate change & food insecurity 4. Reshape food access & consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met & foster sustainable eating habits worldwide 5. Reduce loss & waste in food systems – particularly from infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution & household habits 6. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions & other negative environmental impacts 7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human & ecological dimensions Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 7
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  Key insights relatedto Australia’s interest in food security Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 8
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  Australia’s interests infood security • Australia has a high level of food security o export ~60% of food production o produce 1% of world’s food; 3% of traded food • Share same health/diet issues with higher income countries • Land and water are increasingly contested o for food, fibre, fuel and carbon sinks • Droughts and floods constrain agricultural outputs • Strong population growth is fuelling community debate on “sustainability” • National policy related developments and dialogue • International engagement around food security DAFF 2012. FOODmap. An analysis of the Australian food supply chain Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 9
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  Action in neededon three fronts 1) reducing demand 2) sustaining existing productivity 3) filling the production gap Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 10
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  Food Demand Scenarios1960 to 2050 45 Plus 20 % wastage loss in value chain 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) Plus 6 or 12 % diversion to biofuels 35 9B people + consumption increase in developing 30 countries 25 9B people 8B people , no 20 consumption increae 15 10 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
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  A ‘Mega-wedge’ ofFood Demand 45 40 Filling the Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) Production 35 Demand 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 12
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  Other “Mega-wedges” ofFood Demand ? 45 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) 40 Filling the 35 Production Demand 30 25 Avoiding 20 losses of productive 15 capacity 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 13
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  Other “Mega-wedges” ofFood Demand ? 45 Reducing 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) the Demand 35 Filling the 30 Production Demand 25 20 Avoiding losses of 15 productive capacity 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 14
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  Pathways to Addressthe Food Security Challenge ? Reducing the demand trajectory 45 • Reduce waste along the food value 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) 35 chain 30 25 • Reducing over-consumption in 20 human diets 15 10 5 • Rebalancing livestock component of 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 future diets Year • Develop “smart biofuel” policies & technologies Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 15
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  Pathways to Addressthe Food Security Challenge? Avoiding losses of productive capacity • Maintaining pest & disease resistance 45 & biosecurity 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) 35 • Avoiding further soil & water 30 25 degradation 20 15 • Climate change mitigation without 10 loss of food security 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 • Adapting to unavoidable climate change Year Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 16
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  Pathways to Addressthe Food Security Challenge? Filling the production shortfall • Net expansion of the land footprint • Net expansion of irrigation footprint 45 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) • Expanding aquaculture based 35 30 production 25 20 • Increasing production intensity 15 10 • Closing yield gaps 5 0 (including raising eco-efficiency) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year • Raising yield ceilings through new technologies Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 17
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  Pathways ahead forthe Govt and Industry? Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 19
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  Translation... Carbon storage Greenhouse gas abatement Livelihood Profitability Agri-environmental Productivity stewardship
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  Greenhouse gas Agri-environmental abatement Productivity stewardship Carbon storage Livelihood Profitability
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  Pathways ahead forthe Govt and Industry? Contribution of statisticians & statistical science? ◦ innovation ◦ partnerships ◦ knowledge services Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 22
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  What is Agri-Environmental Informatics? Modelling of Key Processes Enhancing * environmental Design, accounting Next Integration & Generation * landscape stewardship Synthesis of Data Observational * environmental services Acquisition Data * community well-being Technologies * competitive edge Enabling Risk Informed Decision Making
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  Reflections: innovation, partnerships knowledgeservices Deep engagement with stakeholders  adoption and impact Strong disciplinary science across a range of disciplines Transdisciplinary integrators and modellers  space, time  competing objectives High level visualisation and communication technologies  space, time  risk profiles A mosaic of native ecosystems, plantations, and agriculture on  uncertainty Kangaroo Island, SA.
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  Thank you Sustainable AgricultureFlagship Dr Bronwyn Harch Deputy Director t +61 7 3833 5631 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/SAF