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Strategic insights battery materials
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- 2. “Every Industrial revolutionstarted with materials breakthrough. The one who masters and secures the battery materials supply chain will co-lead this revolution along with AI pioneers : CASE strategy. 22 WHY BATTERY MATERIALS ARE OF INTEREST? supply chain
- 3. SYNOPSIS ▰ Battery KeyNumbers ▰ Battery Chemistry Evolution to 2030 ▰ LIB Cost Structure ▰ Bottlenecks for LIB ramp-up ▰ Incumbent Cathode Materials ▰ Patent landscape ▰ Incumbent Anode Materials ▰ Incumbent players : LIB AM’s ▰ Incumbent players : Perception game ▰ Separators ▰ Electrolytes ▰ Processing ▰ Li- Si ▰ Li- S ▰ Li- Air ▰ SSB ▰ Global Planned LIB capacity / Thanks 3 References are in notes section
- 4. 4 Present 2018 Midterm Future 2023 Long term Future 2030 NUMBERS KEY TO BATTERY MARKET (predictions) 200$/KWh ~4 V 130$/KWh > 4 V <100$/KWh > 5 V 4The numbers are just rough estimates of battery pack price, energy density and Cell Voltage
- 5. 5 LIB BATTERY CHEMISTRYEVOLUTION Current Li-ion Battery technology1 o Liquid Electrolyte o Graphite Anode o Transition Oxide Cathode o Slurry Based Processing CATHODE ANODE ELECTROLYTE SEPARATOR PROCESSING <2000 <2015 <2023 <2030Components / Year LCO Graphite LiPF6+ solvent P.Olefin Slurry NMC,NCA & LFP LTO LiPF6+ solvent Additives & Blends P.Olefin ceramic coated Slurry Li rich, >4V Oxides Si/C >4V Electrolyte Thin P.Olefin Aramid coat High load slurry Market dissolution estimates : (SEM image background) Sulphur, Oxygen Li metal, Alloys Polymer, Ionic Liquid No Separator Binderless mixing MARKET5
- 6. 6 STATE OF THEART LIB BATTERY COST STRUCTURE http://www.avicenne.com/reports_energy.php Raw materials are estimated to cost 60% of LIB cost price. Among them, cathode materials have the biggest share and their price significantly affects the profits in low margin Li-ion cell market MARKET6
- 7. 7 BOTTLENECKS INRAMPING UP Li-ION BATTERY PRODUCTION 2025 LCE 3X ⇡ CO 2X ⇡ Ni 13X ⇡ Battery Manufacturing Infrastructure And Financing • IEA predicts 125 million EV’s on road in 20303. • Around 5 million EV’s on road in 2018. • Present Li-ion capacity4 is 221 GWh 2018 • 120 mil X 70 kwh = 840 GWh : Cumulative demand 2019-2030 . • LCV’s, Stationary and Home storage also will consume Li-ion. • Investment of 100’s of billion $ to just build factories, to meet aggressive forecasts. • Minimum 20 billion dollar cash burn/year shared by 5 players Potential Raw Material Supply Volatility • Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel : 3 Volatility sources • ~12 kg Li (19% of LIC) in every 70 KWh battery • Lithium Carbonate Equivalent LCE triples through 20251 • But, enough Li sources are being developed • Expensive Cobalt has troubled and concentrated source (DRC) making it rife for speculation. • EV grade Ni might go from 5% of 2016 global supply to 58% through 2025 : 13X demand upheaval2. 1.https://www.mckinsey.com/ind ustries/metals-and-mining/our- insights/lithium-and-cobalt-a- tale-of-two-commodities 2.https://finance.yahoo.com/new s/umicore-sa-ebr-umi-recent- 075221107.html 3.https://about.bnef.com/electric- vehicle-outlook/ 4.https://www.visualcapitalist.co m/battery-megafactory-forecast- 1-twh-capacity-2028/ MARKET
- 8. 8 INCUMBENT LIB CATHODEMATERIALS JM Battery systems analysis on current materials1 The commercial cells pack more capacities due to mixing of different electrode materials like small quantities of Si, additives and special formulations. 2016 270K TONS 2025 850K TONS Cathode Materials2 MARKET VOLUME Graphs are made from data in Avicenne battery report 2018 PRESENT8
- 9. 9 NMC CATHODE IPLANDSCAPE http://www.knowmade.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NMC-Li-ion-Batteries-Patent-Landscape-2017-SAMPLE.pdf o The commercial implications of a strong patent portfolio can be understood by intricate race in NMC manufacturing at scale. o This serves as an example for future players to secure a strong IP portfolio. o Companies cannot afford to be late in the IP game 9 PRESENT
- 10. 10 INCUMBENT LIB ANODEMATERIALS Anode Market 20162 http://www.avicenne.com/reports_energy.php Anodes in research1 Carbon Anodes 10 PRESENT
- 11. 11 INCUMBENT PLAYERS :LIB ACTIVE MATERIALS Artificial Graphite 2017 http://www.avicenne.com/reports_energy.php Natural Graphite 2017Cathodes : NMC 2017 11 PRESENT ☜ Umicore is market leader in NMC & lCO ☜ Sumitomo is the market leader in NCA ☜ Cell makers also make lot of active materials specially LFP ☜ Shenzhen & ShanShan are market leaders 2017 leapfrogging Hitachi ☜ Over supply concerns for Natural graphite
- 12. 12 INCUMBENT PLAYERS :perception game JAPAN TSECHINA SSEEUROPE 12 PRESENT ☜ The industry is feverishly expanding and companies will need cheaper capital to better prepare for tech disruption. ☜ The price to earnings ratio indicates the expected price of a share based on its earnings. ☜ A company with a high P/E ratio usually indicated positive future performance and investors are willing to pay more for this company’s shares. ☜ Equity financing allows a company to fund expansion efforts, pay down debt, and purchase other companies. . Why P/E matters ? Dec 28, 2018 Data from Reuters Stock indices
- 13. 13 SEPARATORS Extruded microporous Polyolefindominates the market1 Separators Market Volume 20164 PRESENT13 Consumer electronics leader EV battery leader3 Asahi and Polypore (Celgard) have a same holding company COATING Future SSB Electrolyte membranes will double up as separators giving current separator suppliers a serious challenge. OTHERS ☯ Electro spun non-woven mat with specialty polymers are being developed by incumbents.
- 14. 14 LIB ELECTROLYTES Organic solvent+ LiPF6 dominates the market1 Electrolytes Market 20163 PRESENT14 AdditivesFuture SSB : Electrolyte membranes coming from ceramic and polymer based suppliers will pose challenge to incumbents. OTHERS ☯ Sulphur containing electrolytes with SEI and carbonate additives for High V. ☯ Ionic liquids ☯ Gel electrolytes (eg. IMEC) 2016 87K TONS The formulation mainly consists mix of organic solvents such as ethylene carbonate and lithium salt such as LiPF6 & special additives. ✜ SEI Formation additives ✜ Shut down additives ✜ Flame retardant additives ✜ Redox shuttle additives
- 15. 15 LIB PROCESSING Traditional slurryprocessing NeXT gen processing PRESENT & FUTURE15 NMP CATHODE PVDF CARBON Reduce Non Active materials Reduce Non essential steps ✐ Slurry processing involves time consuming steps like mixing, drying etc. ✐ The equipment should be made explosion proof for volatile electrolytes. ✐ A lot of non active layers are required by current thin winding process. Courtesy : Umicore RTC ✐ 24M is just one example of next gen processing2 ✐ 24M keeps the electrode in semisolid suspension ✐ 24M envisages fewer thicker (more tortuous) electrodes ✐ 24M claims to have removed the drying step ✐ 24M claims 40% reduction in pack cost ✐ 24M claims 1/20th capex cost reduction 17 Traditional Steps 7 24M Steps
- 16. 16 A PEEK INTOTHE FUTURE RAGONE PLOT R.Kanno et al. ; Toyota Motors, Nature Energy. : 16030 (2016) Specific Energy (Wh/kg) SpecificPower(KW/kg) Future 1 : Li – Silicon Composite Future 2 : Li-S Future 3 : Li-Air Future 4 : Solid State PROBABLE NEXT GEN BATTERY MATERIALS Li metal Anode is a common factor
- 17. PEEK INTO THEFUTURE Li – Silicon composite Li-Si based battery Challenge o Expansion1 360% for Li4.4Si Developments Players (70% monolithic Si) ✂ The most market ready next-gen battery technology ✂ Graphite is replaced by Si based Anode ✂ 4200 mAh/g theoretical capacity ✂ 300-500 Wh/kg claimed energy density. ✂ Every major lab and battery companies have a functioning Si Nano composite 17 o A variety of nano scale composites of silicon and carbon is developed which can localize the expansion. o Porous structures and Si alloys were also found to be viable. o Roll to Roll Si anodes were developed compatible with current Li-ion infrastructure3.
- 18. 18 Li -Sulphur Li-S battery scheme1 Challenges 2,3,4 o Li metal dendrites o Inability to handle sudden power surge demands o Cycle life un-certainity o No proper understanding of mechanisms S8 --> Li2S o Electrolyte reactive anode Developments 2,3,4 o Polymer-Ceramic Li metal protection layer o Advance control theory for SOC estimations o 300-500 Wh/Kg claimed despite 2.1V o Shelf life at 0 SOC o Better understanding of principles Low density : Lot of interest from UAV players is providing a niche market, which can be extended to EV market in time. Players ✐ Oxis is leading a large EU project LISA and an UK project LIFSAB as a testament to its rise5. ✐ Partners : Arkema, Bayer, Toray, GP. ✐ Strong coordination with defense, aviation. ✐ Sion power have collaborated with BASF and produced a strong patent portfolio. ✐ Sion power partnered with Airbus DS6. ✐ Lg chem aquired rights to several Sion patents7. PEEK INTO THE FUTURE o Cathode is cheap Sulphur. o Few battery packs are reportedly already in deployment. o Strong commercialization feasibility in the next 5 years
- 19. 19 Li AirBatteryPEEK INTO THE FUTURE Cathode Catalyst Electrolyte Challenges 1,2 Types1 Players
- 20. 20 Solid-State BatterySSBPEEK INTO THE FUTURE Electrolyte Interface Scale-up
- 21. 21 Busy Solid-State Batteryactivity across the globe Automotive firms has a historically strong interest in SSB’s among next-gen battery chemistries1,2,3,4 Total takes stake in Ionic Materials 21 PEEK INTO THE FUTURE
- 22. 22 BATTERY MATERIALS MARKETRESET CURRENT LI-ION TECH BASED ON LIQUID ELECTROLYTE Sumitomo estimates cathodes are more than half of RBM market by value1 Li-S Value Appreciation Value Depreciation New battery graphs are qualitative Li-air Li-Si Solid-state 22
- 23. 23 leaders NEW LI-ION BATTERYPLANNED CAPCAITY Thank-You [email protected] http://www.avicenne.com/reports_energy.php