Strengthening governance in the collection and use of information on skills needs

Strengthening governance in the collection and use of information on skills needs

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  ANTICIPATING SKILLS FORTHE FUTURE OF WORK Stefano Scarpetta Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affaires OECD Skills Summit Porto, 28-29 June 2018
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  Skill demands arechanging as a result of global trends What jobs will people do? How will they do them? Which skills will be needed? Technology Digitalisation Globalisation Environmental change Ageing Societies 2
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  The 3 mega-trends Populationsare ageing The world has become more integrated Share of business sector jobs sustained by consumers in foreign markets Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64) OECD average The robots are coming Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots 2015 2050 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 '000ofunits 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Germany Portugal Italy United Kingdom France Canada Japan United States
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  Labour markets arechanging The disappearing middle: jobs by skill level (% change in employment shares 1995-2015) 4 New vacancies for gig workers (May 2016=100) 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Source: Oxford Internet Institute, Online Labor Index A number of jobs at risk of automation (as a % of all jobs) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Risk of significant change (50-70%) -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 France Portugal UnitedKingdom Italy Germany OECDAverage UnitedStates Canada Japan Low skill Middle skill High skill
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  We need tochange the way we think about skills New skill sets for new occupations and tasks ICT skills, problem- solving skills, socio- emotional skills New forms of employment Decision-making skills Training policies for multiple careers Lifelong learning, skills recognition
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  Inaction can leadto costly skills imbalances 6 Qualification and field-of-study mismatch Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% CzechRepublic SlovakRepublic Poland Slovenia Finland Hungary EUaverage UnitedStates Denmark Belgium France Lithuania Norway Austria Switzerland Sweden Germany Netherlands Italy NewZealand UnitedKingdom Spain Portugal Turkey Greece Ireland Underqualification Overqualification Field-of-study mismatch
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  Inaction can leadto costly skills imbalances Source: Skills Outlook (2013): Survey of Adults Skills, PIAAC (2012) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Austria Spain Czech Republic Ireland Germany Slovak Republic Italy Korea Japan Australia UnitedStates Norway Denmark Poland Estonia Netherlands Canada Finland Sweden Percentageofoverandunder-skilled(Literacy),PIAAC Over-skilled Under-skilled
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  Labour market demandis concentrating in high-cognitive and soft skills 8 -0.015 -0.01 -0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 JudgmentandDecisionMaking SocialPerceptiveness Troubleshooting EquipmentSelection VerbalAbilities ReasoningAbilities PhysicalStrength Endurance HealthServices EducationandTraining ArtsandHumanities ManufacturingandProduction Skills Abilities Knowledge United States EU unweighted average <-surplusshortage-> Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database High-Cognitive Skills: Verbal and Reasoning abilities, Judgment & Decision Making, Social Perceptiveness Knowledge areas: Health Services, Education and Training, Mathematics and ICT
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  Source: OECD Skillsfor Jobs Database- Unweighted average for European Countries …while imbalances have grown over time -0.020 -0.015 -0.010 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 WrittenExpression DeductiveReasoning InductiveReasoning FluencyofIdeas ProblemSensitivity Originality MathematicalReasoning Arm-HandSteadiness GrossBodyCoordination Stamina ManualDexterity MultilimbCoordination StaticStrength Final year Initial year Surpluses in routine and physical abilities have become more evident Shortages in cognitive skills have become more pervasive
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  Skills imbalances havenegative effects for all Vacancies remain unfilled for too long Delays in production Slow adoption of technologies Higher turnover and re- training costs 10 Substantial wage penalty Reduced Job satisfaction For individuals For employers
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  Key policy principlesfor effective SAA Systems Identify clear objectives Set up information systems Involve relevant stakeholders Use the results for policy making
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  Identify clear objectivesand tools to reach them Assessment of current needs (Surveys, Administrative data) + Forecast of demand and supply Policy formulation Tailored Sectoral exercises + Regional and local disaggregation Strategic Planning Links with schools, universities + Web-platforms, mobile applications Career guidance
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  Set up informationsystems 1. Develop exercises that make the most of qualitative and quantitative information on skill needs – Canada: ‘FutureSkillsLab’ uses big-data to track emerging trends and feed into policy intervention – UK: Migration Advisory Committee analyses online vacancy data to identify skill shortages and inform migration policy 2. Include sectoral and sub-national analysis – Portugal: “Sistema de Antecipação de Necessidades de Qualificações” (National Qualification Needs Anticipation System, SANQ). SANQ identified short and medium term skill needs at the regional level – Norway: study to forecast future supply and demand for advanced ICT competences up to 2030 and recently established an ad-hoc ‘Commission on Future Skill Needs’
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  But some barriersto SAA exercises exist… Source: Getting Skills Right: Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill Needs (2016) Note: Values based on responses from 29 countries reporting at least one involved actor 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Lack of human resources with relevant knowledge and expertise Poor statistical infrastructure Lack of funds Low reliability and accuracy of past exercises Other Percentageofcountriesreportingbarrier  Need to boost human resources and capability  Strengthen statistical infrastructures  More funds
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  Involve relevant stakeholders •Cross-ministerial collaboration – Japan: Central Training Council articulates discussions about skills anticipation in the context of the training system across ministries, regional/sub-regional administrative levels and stakeholders. • Social partners – Australia: social partners lead skills anticipation exercises (Industry Skills Forecasts) and provide direct input for policy action. • Sub-national and sectoral entities – France: Réseau Emploi Compétences (REC) brings together different providers of skills needs exercises and decision makers from related fields at various administrative levels (national, sectoral, regional )
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  Contact: [email protected] Twitter: @stescarpetta Blog: Websites:http://www.oecd.org/employment/skills-and-work.htm Thank you