4.1.The Bullwhip Effect
•One of the most common dynamics in supply chains is a
phenomena that has been called “the bullwhip effect.”
• The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon in supply chain
management that occurs when a small increase in demand at the
retail level is gradually amplified by each party in the supply
chain.
• It happens when small changes in product demand by the
consumer at the front of the supply chain translate into wider and
wider change in demand experienced by companies further
back in the upstream supply chain.
3.
What causes thebullwhip effect in a supply chain?
• The bullwhip effect can disrupt the harmony in a supply
chain, leading to inefficiencies and excess costs. Identifying
the causes behind this phenomenon is crucial for businesses
seeking a smoother, more responsive supply chain.
1. Demand forecasting errors
• One of the primary triggers of the bullwhip effect is
inaccurate demand forecasting. When retailers miscalculate
customer needs, the resulting distorted information can lead
to over-ordering or under-ordering.
4.
Cont’d.
2. Order batching
•Order batching occurs when businesses consolidate multiple orders
into larger, less frequent shipments. While this might seem cost-
effective, it can contribute to the bullwhip effect.
3. Price fluctuations
• Frequent changes in product prices can intensify the bullwhip
effect. When customers anticipate price change, they may stock up
on goods, leading to irregular ordering patterns.
5.
Cause of bullwhipcont’d…
4. Information delays
• Communication gaps and delays in sharing real-time information
among supply chain partners can amplify the bullwhip effect.
• When participants are not promptly informed of changes in
demand or inventory levels, they may make decisions based on
outdated data.
5. Inventory management practices
Inconsistent inventory management practices can intensify the
bullwhip effect. Retailers, aiming to prevent stock outs, may over-
order to maintain safety stock levels.
6.
Impact of thebullwhip effect on supply chain
management
1. Inventory levels
• The bullwhip effect often results in unpredictable inventory levels as
orders fluctuate between excess and shortage. Retailers, reacting to
perceived fluctuations in demand, may overstock or understock their
shelves.
2. Production planning
• Manufacturers, receiving irregular and exaggerated orders, face
challenges in production planning. The need to accommodate
sudden ;increase or drops in demand can lead to inefficient use of
resources, increased setup costs, and potential disruptions in the
production process.
7.
Impact of bullwhipcont’d…
3. Operational costs
• The bullwhip effect is not merely a unpredictability; it's a financial
wave that affects operational costs throughout the supply chain.
Fluctuating demand patterns can result in higher transportation costs
due to frequent shipments or increased holding costs for excess
inventory.
4. Inefficiencies
• The bullwhip effect introduces inefficiencies as each participant
in the supply chain reacts to distorted information. These
inefficiencies manifest in the form of excess production,
unnecessary inventory, and increased lead times.
• The cumulative impact diminishes the overall responsiveness
and agility of the supply chain, hindering its ability to adapt
quickly to market changes.
8.
How to mitigatethe bullwhip effect
1. Improve communication
• Open and transparent communication is the cornerstone of
mitigating the bullwhip effect. Establishing clear channels of
communication among all supply chain partners helps ensure that
everyone has access to real-time information.
2. Adopt demand-driven strategies
• Shifting from traditional forecasting methods to demand-driven
strategies can significantly reduce the bullwhip effect.
• Instead of relying only on historical data, businesses can use real-
time demand signals to make more informed decisions.
9.
4.2.Coordination in theSupply Chain
• supply chain coordination
• Supply chain coordination involves aligning and harmonizing all
stakeholders in a supply chain to improve efficiency, reduce costs,
and enhance customer satisfaction.
• Key components include information sharing, joint decision-
making, and collaborative planning across manufacturers,
suppliers, and retailers. Effective coordination minimizes
disruptions and ensures a smooth flow of goods and information
from origin to consumer.
10.
4.4. Collaborative planning,forecasting, and
replenishment (CPFR)
• CPFR is the method of coordinating various supply chain
activities between multiple parties (i.e., manufacturer,
retailer, etc.) to meet customer demand while minimizing
costs.
• It was developed by The Voluntary Inter-industry
Commerce Solutions (VICS) Association, which created
a framework and set of guidelines for conducting CPFR
in supply chains.
• It requires strategic supply chain planning and smooth
communication to facilitate accurate forecasting and
replenishment as well as efficient supply chain execution.
Cont’d.
• Strategy andPlanning: This phase involves laying out the strategy
for collaborative relationships between supply chain partners.
• The idea is that all organizations involved in partnership share an
agreed scope of collaboration, common business goals. Roles,
responsibilities and procedures are also set out in the strategy and
planning phase.
• Demand and Supply Management: This is the element which
focuses on sales and order forecasting and the planning of orders.
13.
Cont’d.
• Execution: Thisis the phase concerned with the
processes of producing, stocking, dispatching, and
delivery of materials to end-customers.
• Analysis and Monitoring: After execution, all parties
review the outcomes, looking at performance metrics to
see what worked well and where improvements are
needed.
14.
The Benefits ofCPFR
• Improved accuracy of sales and order forecasts
• Reductions in inventory levels
• Closer relationships among the supply chain partners
• Reduced supply chain uncertainty
• Realization of supply chain cost reductions
• More effective mitigation of supply chain risks
15.
4.4. Information Systemsthat support the Supply
Chain
• Information system, is an integrated set of components
for collecting, storing, and processing data and for
providing information, knowledge, and digital products.
• Business firms and other organizations highly rely on
information systems to carry out and manage their
operations, interact with their customers and suppliers, and
compete in the marketplace.
16.
Cont’d.
Information technology supportsinternal operations and
also collaboration between companies in a supply chain.
SCM IS are information systems (IS) used to coordinate
information between internal and external customers,
suppliers, distributors, and other partners in a supply
chain.
17.
Warehouse management system(WMS)
•A WMS is software that helps companies manage and control daily
warehouse operations, from the moment goods and materials enter
a distribution or fulfillment center until the moment they leave.
Transportation Management System
• A transportation management system is a software that helps
companies manage logistics associated with the movement of
physical of goods – by land, air, sea, or a combination of
transportation modes.
18.
Cont’d.
TMS is partof the larger supply chain management system,
that helps companies to ensure timely delivery of goods by
• Adjusting loads and delivery routes,
• Tracking freight across local and global routes, and
• Automating previously time-consuming tasks, such as
trade compliance documentation and freight billing.