Survey and sampling and forcasting

Survey and sampling and forcasting

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  Principles of IPM Pestsurvey, Surveillance and Forecasting RAVI YADAV B.Sc Agriculture Jagdalpur
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  Introduction Survey, surveillance andforecasting of insect pests are vital components of Integrated Pest Management. These forms an integral part of any and all control measures applied to crop and that no pesticide should be applied without sufficient justification . Survey: It is detailed collection of insect population information at a particular time in a given area.
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  Pest Surveillance  Itis an official procedure conducted over a defined period of time to determine the characteristics of a pest population or to determine which pest species occur in an area.  Assessment is conducted on the incidence or population of major pests once in 3 to 5 years. It is a detailed collection of insect population information at a particular time in a given area. It is conducted to study the distribution and abundance of a pest species.
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  Refers to anofficial process which collects and records data on pest occurrence by survey, monitoring or other procedures. It is a constant watch kept on the population dynamics of insect pests their incidence and damage on each crop at fixed intervals. It provide information about the forth coming population of pests. Contd…
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  1. To knowthe existing pest species and new species. 2. To assess pest population and damage at different growth stage of the crop. 3. To study the influence of weather parameters on pest. 4. To study changing pest status (minor to major). 5. To assess natural enemies and their influence on pests. 6. To know the effect of new cropping pattern and varieties on pest. 7. To fix up hot spot, endemic and epidemic areas of pests 8. To forewarn the farmers to take up timely crop protection measures. Objectives of pest surveillance
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  Types of survey 1.Fixed plot survey: The plot is fixed in an area and the counts are made periodically at weekly intervals from seedling to maturity stage of the crop.
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  Fix plot survey(e.g.: Pests of Paddy) Insect pests Methods Adult stage of Jassids, Hispa, Gundhi bug and Stem borer 20 sweeps in the fixed field. Count the total No. of each insect Jassid (nymphs), BPH (nymph & adult) Tap vigorously 5 hills in 1 m2 and count the insects fallen down on water and ground. Workout the population /hill Stem borer, Rice gall midge, leaf folder, Case worm Compute the percentage of affected tillers and leaf from 5 hills/m2
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  2. Roving survey Assessmentof pest population/damage from randomly selected spots representing larger area.  Large area is surveyed in short period. It provide the pest status of large area. Survey is done from south to west direction by diagonal walk.
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  Types of reportsinvolved in the surveillance programme are: White card report: this is normal report in which the pest studies are reported regularly at weekly interval. Yellow card report: is a special reporting system whenever pest is noticed at 50% of the economic threshold level but still not obtained EIL status. Red card report: the red card reporting system is adopted when pest has reached the critical ETL where immediate action has to be launched for controlling the pest.
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  A. General surveillance: Processwhereby information on particular pest which is of concern for an area is gathered from many sources, wherever it is available and provided for use by NPPOs (National Plant Protection Organizations). B. Specific survey: Procedures by which NPPOs obtain information on pest of concern on specific sites in an area over a defined period of time. Types of surveillance
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  Pest forecasting Forecasting ofpest incidence or outbreak based on information obtained from pest surveillance. Uses: For predicting forth coming infestation level of pest which needs control measure. To find out the critical stage of pest at which control measure gives maximum protection.
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  Types of pestforecasting A. Short term forecasting: Based on 1 or 2 successive seasons. Usually employs different methodologies than long term forecasting. Short term forecasts tend to more accurate than long term forecasts. Ex. Trapping and sampling methods B. Long term forecasting: It covers large areas and based on effect of weather parameters on pest. It deals with more comprehensive issues and support management decisions regarding planning and products, plants and processes.
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  Forecasting must berelated to ETL and made through: A.Population studies: Studies carried out over several years using appropriate sampling methods to find out seasonal range of population variability and geographic distributions. B.Studies on the pests life history: The possible No. of generations and behaviour of different larval instars, length of life cycle both in the field and laboratory can be related to the range of environmental factors. Ex. Temperature, humidity. C.Field studies of the effects of climate on the pest and its environments. Number of pest, parasites and predators. How to make the pest forecasting
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  How to makethe pest forecasting Methods of pest forecasting classified based on: 1. Observation of environmental factors: The amount of rainfall is used to determine the emergence of moths of Amsacta albistriga and A. Moori. 2. Observations of climatic areas: Areas where critical incidence are likely to occur can also be forecasted for some pests. The principal factors are biotic, topographic or climatic. Combination of temperature and rainfall, temperature and humidity. Soil insects- soil temperature and moisture content are the most important. 3. Prediction from empirical observations:
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  1. When surveyis to be done 2. Location of survey 3. Method of survey 4. Type and stage of crop 5. Stage of insect population 6. Weather parameters 7. Experienced person Factors affecting surveys