Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1

Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1

• 1.
  Telecom Customer Bases –Part 1 Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2004-2008 [HR.CTD001.V1U1-2009] Dr.-Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/4/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
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  Telecom Customer Bases– Part 1 Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos Nov. 4 2 Contents List of Figures & Tables........................................................................................................ 3 FWL vs. FWA vs. Mobile....................................................................................................... 4 Wireline vs. Wireless............................................................................................................. 6 Fixed vs. Mobile..................................................................................................................... 8 Growth ................................................................................................................................. 10 Teledensity........................................................................................................................... 16 Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 18
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  Telecom Customer Bases– Part 1 Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos Nov. 4 3 List of Figures & Tables Figure 1 Telecom Subscribers – FWL, FWA & Mobile (2004-2008) ................................... 4 Figure 2 Market Share of Telecom Subscribers by Type (2004-2008)................................ 5 Figure 3 Market Share of Telecom Subscribers by Type at 2008E .................................... 5 Figure 4 Telecom Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008)..................................... 6 Figure 5 Portion of Wireless Subscribers (2004-2008) ........................................................ 7 Figure 6 Market Share of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) ....................... 7 Figure 7 Telecom Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008)............................................. 8 Figure 8 Portion of Mobile Subscribers (2004-2008) ........................................................... 9 Figure 9 Market Share of Subscribers – Mobile & Fixed (2004-2008) ............................... 9 Figure 10 Growth of Telecom Subscribers – All (2004-2008)............................................ 10 Figure 11 Growth of Wireless Subscribers (2004-2008).................................................... 11 Figure 12 Growth of FWL Subscribers (2004-2008).......................................................... 12 Figure 13 Growth of Fixed Subscribers (2004-2008)......................................................... 13 Figure 14 Growth of Mobile Subscribers (2004-2009)....................................................... 14 Figure 15 Growth of FWA Subscribers (2004-2008).......................................................... 15 Figure 16 Growth of FWA Subscribers – AGR & CAGR................................................... 15 Figure 17 Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) ...................................................................... 16 Figure 18 Wireless Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008)....................................................... 16 Figure 19 Mobile / Cellular Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008).......................................... 17 Figure 20 Fixed Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008)............................................................ 17 Table 1 Number of Telecom Subscribers (2004-2008) ......................................................... 4 Table 2 Percentage of Telecom Subscribers (2004-2008) .................................................... 4 Table 3 Number of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) .................................. 6 Table 4 Percentage of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008).............................. 6 Table 5 Number of Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008) .......................................... 8 Table 6 Percentage of Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008)...................................... 8 Figure Table 1 Growth of Subscribers – All (AGR & CAGR)............................................ 10 Figure Table 2 Growth of Wireless Subscribers – AGR & CAGR..................................... 11 Figure Table 3 Growth of FWL Subscribers – AGR & CAGR........................................... 12 Figure Table 4 Growth of Fixed Subscribers – AGR & CAGR.......................................... 13 Figure Table 5 Growth of Mobile Subscribers – AGR & CAGR........................................ 14
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 F   PSTN/FW FWA  Mobile    PSTN/FW FWA  Mobile  1 1 1 1 wos.Resear /www.ligar Figure 1T 2 WL  3 Tab WL  Table 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 rch rvirtual.com Telecom S 2004E  8,582,228  1,684,113  30,250,415  le 1 Num 2004E  21.2  4.2  74.7  e 2 Percen 0 0 0 0 0 PSTN/ m/harewos FW Subscribe 2005E 8,710,3 4,819,6 46,587,3 mber of Te 2005E 14.5  8.0  77.5  ntage of T /FWL All O L vs. ers – FWL 20 385 8 629 6 371 63 elecom Su 20 1 8 Telecom S FWA Opera Telec . FWA L, FWA & 006E  8,738,343 6,102,137 3,803,108 ubscriber 006E  11.1  7.8  81.1  Subscrib Mo ators com Custom A vs. & Mobile ( 2007E  8,717,7 10,811,4 93,387,0 rs (2004-2 2007E  7.7  9.6  82.7  ers (2004 obile mer Bases – . Mob (2004-200 20 760  8 479  21 019  140 2008) 20 5 1 8 4-2008) – Part 1 4 bile 8) 008E  8,674,228 ,124,057 0,548,229 008E  5.1  12.4  82.5  2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 Fig F MarketPercentage wos.Resear /www.ligar gure 2Ma igure 3 M 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 2 MarketPercentage rch rvirtual.com arket Sha Market Sh 2004E 2 Tele m/harewos are of Tel hare of Te 2005E 2 All O Mobile 83% ecom M lecom Sub elecom Su 006E 20 Opera PSTN/F 5% Marke 2008E Telec bscribers ubscribe 007E 20 ators FWL % FWA 12% et by T E com Custom s by Type rs by Typ 008E Type mer Bases – e (2004-20 pe at 2008 PSTN/FW FWA Mobile – Part 1 5 008) 8E WL
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 F   Wireline Wireless Ta   Wireless Wireline Tab 1 1 1 1 1 wos.Resear /www.ligar Figure 4T 2 e  s  3 able 3 Nu 2 s  e  ble 4 Perc 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 180,000,000 rch rvirtual.com Telecom S 2004E  8,582,228  31,934,528  umber of 2004E  78.8  21.2  centage o 0 0 0 0 0 0 W m/harewos W Subscribe 2005E 8,710,3 51,407,0 Subscrib 2005E 85.5  14.5  of Subscr Wireline All O Wire ers – Wir 20 385 8 000 69 bers – Wir 20 8 1 ibers – W Opera Telec eline eline & W 006E  8,738,343 9,905,245 reline & W 006E  88.9  11.1  Wireline & Wireless ators com Custom vs. W Wireless ( 2007E  8,717,7 104,198,4 Wireless ( 2007E  92.3  7.7  & Wireles mer Bases – Wirel (2004-2008 20 760  8 498  161 (2004-200 20 9 5 s (2004-20 – Part 1 6 less 8) 008E  8,674,228 ,672,286 08) 008E  94.9  5.1  008) 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 Figur wos.Resear /www.ligar Figu re 6Mark 78. 2004 rch rvirtual.com ure 5 Port ket Share .8 4E 2 W Te W m/harewos tion of W e of Subsc 85.5 2005E Wireles W lecom Wirelin Wireless Su cribers – 88.9 2006E ss Port Wir 9 Wireline 5% m Mark ne vs. W Telec ubscriber Wireline 92.3 2007E tion (% reless 95% ket 200 Wirele com Custom rs (2004-2 e & Wirele 3 9 E 20 %) 08E ss mer Bases – 2008) ess (2004- 94.9 008E – Part 1 7 -2008)
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4   Fixed  Mobile    Fixed  Mobile  T 1 1 1 1 wos.Resear /www.ligar Figure 7 2 1 3 Table5 N 2 Table 6 Pe 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 rch rvirtual.com 7 Telecom 2004E  10,266,341  30,250,415  Number o 2004E  25.3  74.7  ercentage 0 0 0 0 0 m/harewos m Subscr 2005E 13,530,0 46,587,3 of Subscr 2005E 22.5  77.5  e of Subs Fixed All O F ribers – F 20 014 14 371 63 ribers – F 20 1 8 scribers – Opera Telec Fixe ixed & M 006E  4,840,480 3,803,108 Fixed & M 006E  18.9  81.1  – Fixed & Mobile ators com Custom d vs. Mobile (20 2007E  19,529,2 93,387,0 Mobile (20 2007E  17.3  82.7  Mobile ( mer Bases – . Mob 04-2008) 20 239  29 019  140 004-2008) 20 1 8 2004-2008 – Part 1 8 bile 008E  9,798,285 0,548,229 008E  17.5  82.5  8) 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 Fig wos.Resear /www.ligar Fig gure 9Ma 74. 2004 rch rvirtual.com ure 8 Por arket Sha .7 4E 2 M Te m/harewos rtion of M are of Sub 77.5 2005E Mobile Mobile 83% lecom Mobi Mobile Su bscribers 81.1 2006E e Porti m Mark le vs. F Telec ubscriber s – Mobile 82.7 2007E ion (% Fixed 17% ket 200 Fixed com Custom rs (2004-2 e & Fixed 7 8 E 20 %) 08E mer Bases – 008) d (2004-20 82.5 008E – Part 1 9 008)
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 wos.Resear /www.ligar Figure Figure AG CA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percentage rch rvirtual.com 10 Growt Table1 G 50,000,00 100,000,00 150,000,00 200,000,00 T 20 GR 4 AGR 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Telec m/harewos th of Tele Growth o 0 00 00 00 0 2004 Telecom G 005 8.2 8.2 com Su ecom Sub f Subscri 2005 200 m Sub Growth 43% 2006 30.7 39.2 ubscrib Telec bscribers ibers – Al 06 2007 bscribe h % 2007 43.5 40.6 ber Gr com Custom G – All (200 ll (AGR & 2008 er 2 5 4 rowth mer Bases – Grow 04-2008) & CAGR) 2008 50.9 43.1 – Part 1 10 wth
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 F wos.Resear /www.ligar Figu Figure Ta AG CA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percentage rch rvirtual.com re11 Gro able 2 Gro 50,000,00 100,000,00 150,000,00 200,000,00 W 20 GR 6 AGR 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wirel m/harewos owth of W owth of W 0 00 00 00 0 2004 Wireles G 005 1.0 1.0 less Su Wireless S Wireless S 2005 200 ss Sub Growth 50% 2006 36.0 48.0 ubscrib Telec Subscribe Subscribe 06 2007 bscribe h % 2007 49.1 48.3 ber Gr com Custom ers (2004- ers – AGR 2008 er 2 5 5 rowth mer Bases – -2008) R & CAGR 2008 55.2 50.0 – Part 1 11 R
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 wos.Resear /www.ligar Fig Figure T AG CA -1 -0 0 0 1 1 2 Percentage rch rvirtual.com gure12 G Table 3 G 8,500,000 8,550,000 8,600,000 8,650,000 8,700,000 8,750,000 FW 20 GR 1 AGR 1 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 FW m/harewos Growth of Growth of 2004 2 WL Sub 005 1.5 1.5 WL Sub f FWL Sub f FWL Su 2005 2006 scribe 2006 0.3 0.9 scribe Telec bscribers ubscriber 6 2007 er Gro 2007 -0.2 0.5 er Gro com Custom s (2004-20 rs – AGR & 2008 wth 0.3% 2 wth mer Bases – 008) & CAGR 2008 -0.5 0.3 – Part 1 12
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 wos.Resear /www.ligar Fig Figure T AG CA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percentage rch rvirtual.com ure13 Gr Table 4 G 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 Fixe 20 GR 3 AGR 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fixe m/harewos rowth of Growth of 0 0 0 0 2004 ed Sub 005 1.8 1.8 ed Sub Fixed Su f Fixed Su 2005 200 bscribe 31% 2006 9.7 20.2 bscribe Telec ubscriber ubscriber 6 2007 er Gro 2007 31.6 23.9 er Gro com Custom rs (2004-20 rs – AGR 2008 owth 2 5 3 owth mer Bases – 008) & CAGR 2008 52.6 30.5 – Part 1 13
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 wos.Resear /www.ligar Figu Figure T AG CA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percentage rch rvirtual.com ure14 Gr Table 5 Gr 20,000,00 40,000,00 60,000,00 80,000,00 100,000,00 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 Mob 20 GR 5 AGR 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mob m/harewos rowth of M rowth of 0 00 00 00 0 0 0 0 0 2004 ile Sub 005 4.0 4.0 ile Sub Mobile Su Mobile S 2005 200 bscrib 47% 2006 37.0 45.2 bscrib Telec ubscriber ubscribe 06 2007 ber Gro % 2007 46.4 45.6 ber Gro com Custom rs (2004-2 ers – AGR 2008 owth 2 5 4 owth mer Bases – 2009) R & CAGR 2008 50.5 46.8 – Part 1 14 R
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 wos.Resear /www.ligar Fig Figur AG CA 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Percentage rch rvirtual.com gure 15G re 16 Gro 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 FWA 20 GR 18 AGR 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FWA m/harewos Growth of owth of FW 0 0 0 0 2004 WA Sub 005 86.2 86.2 A Sub f FWA Sub WA Subs 2005 200 bscribe 88% 2006 26.6 90.4 scribe Telec bscribers cribers – 6 2007 er Gro % 2007 77.2 85.9 er Gro com Custom s (2004-20 – AGR & C 2008 wth 2 9 8 wth mer Bases – 008) CAGR 2008 95.4 88.2 – Part 1 15
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 wos.Resear /www.ligar Figu 18.7 200 14.7 200 rch rvirtual.com Figure 1 ure18 Wi 72% 2 04E T (M 76% 2 04E W m/harewos 17 Teleco ireless Te 27.34% 2005E elecom Mobile 23.38% 2005E Wireles om Telede elecom Te 35.31% 2006E m Tele e+FWA 31.38% 2006E ss Tele Telec ensity (20 eledensit 50.04% 2007E edensit A+FWL 46.18% 2007E edensit com Custom Tele 004-2008) ty (2004-2 % 74. E 200 ty L) % 70. E 200 ty mer Bases – edens 2008) 54% 08E 75% 08E – Part 1 16 sity
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  No Harew http:// ov. 4 wos.Resear /www.ligar Figure 1 Fig 13.9 200 3.9 0.7 200 rch rvirtual.com 19Mobile gure 20 F 98% 2 04E Mobil 97% 78% 04E F m/harewos e / Cellula Fixed Tele 21.19% 2005E le / Cel 3.96% 2.19% 2005E Fixed PST ar Teleco ecom Tel 28.64% 2006E llular 3.92% 2.7 2006E Teled TN/FWL Telec m Telede ledensity 41.39% 2007E Telede 3.86% 4% 4.79% 2007E density FWA com Custom ensity (20 (2004-20 % 61. E 200 ensity % 3.8 E 200 y mer Bases – 004-2008) 08) 50% 08E y 80% 9.24% 08E – Part 1 17
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  Telecom Customer Bases– Part 1 Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos Nov. 4 18 Abbreviations & Notes AGR Annual Growth Rate CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate 2008E At the end of year 2008 FWA Fixed Wireless Access (Limited Mobile Service) FWL Fixed Wire-Line (PSTN – Public Switched Telephone Network)