The Changing Face of Access
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This document discusses opportunities for increasing access to connectivity through technological changes and regulatory reforms. It notes that the growth of undersea fibre has enabled global competitive services and that unlicensed spectrum and new wireless technologies provide opportunities. However, spectrum auctions have faced challenges in many countries. The document argues that embracing diverse regulatory models, open telecom data, and monitoring spectrum use can help reduce risk, promote innovation, and future-proof regulation.
The Changing Face of Access
- 1. Steve Song Network Startup Resource Center Open Cellular Workshop Nairobi, 19 June 2017 The Changing Face of Access
- 2. The Impact of Fibre on Wireless The growth of undersea fibre optic capacity has been a catalyst for change. The impact of technological change often takes years to manifest
- 3. https://afterfibre.nsrc.org Access to fibre optic infrastructure opens up the potential to offer global competitive services for municipalities, communities, entrepreneurs.
- 4. WIRELESS REGULATION AND THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE Challenge
- 5. 2006 Digital Switchover Decision 2007 2007 2010
- 8. Spectrum Auctions NIGERIA 2013 - 2.3GHz • 30 MHz of 2.3GHz spectrum • 23 million USD • won by Bitflux (a local consortium) • 4 years later little evidence of roll- out 2014 - 2.6 GHz • 14 lots of 2x5MHz of spectrum (140MHz in total) • Launched and withdrawn twice in 2014 then 2015 • 2016, MTN successfully bids for 6 lots meeting the reserve of $16M per lot, a total of $96M MOZAMBIQUE 2013 - 800MHz • auction of five lots of 2x5MHz • reserve price of $30M per lot • no bids, auction withdrawn • remains fallow with no published plans to re-auction
- 9. Spectrum Auctions SOUTH AFRICA 2010 to present • Three attempts since 2010 to launch auctions in 2.6GHz and 3.5GHz and more recently 800MHz • Attempts to include national strategic objectives into the auction design resulting in significant pushback from operators KENYA 2014 - 800MHz • Kenyan government agrees on exchange with largest incumbent Safaricom. 2x15MHz spectrum in exchange for $56M plus promise to build police communications network • Predictably, Airtel and Telkom file complaints • Net result: all three operators get 2x10MHz and pay $25M each
- 10. Spectrum Auctions SENEGAL 2015 - 800MHz (3 blocks 2x30MHz), 700MHz (4 blocks 2x20MHz) , 1800MHz (3 blocks 2x30MHz) • in short... a lot of spectrum • reserve price set at USD50M provoking letter of complaint from operators • negotiations ensued with the result that the former fixed- line incumbent Sonatel agree to pay $53M for 2x10MHz in 800MHz band and 2x10MHz in 1800MHz band. GHANA 2015 - 800MHz • 2 lots of 2x10MHz (total of 40MHz) • reserve price of 67.5M per lot (initially $92M per lot) • MTN the only bidder to meet reserve price • plans to auction rest of 800MHz spectrum to fund digital terrestrial broadcast infrastructure
- 11. Spectrum Auctions 2016 - 900MHz & 1800MHz • reserve price initially set at $50M per MHz • initially only Telecom Egypt agree to bid, Orange and Etisalat complained • regulator stood firm and operators ultimately capitulated, agreeing to pay what appear to be punitive prices for spectrum • total revenue exceeds 1.9 billion USD EGYPT Country Year Total Paid (USD Millions) Price/MHz (USD Millions) Nigeria 2013 23 0.77 Kenya 2015 25 1.25 Senegal 2016 53 1.33 Nigeria 2014 16 1.6 Mozambique 2013 30 3 Ghana 2015 67.5 3.38 Egypt 2016 797 53.13
- 14. Growth of Unlicensed Spectrum Use
- 15. WiFi
- 18. Increasing Diversity in Regulatory Models Decreases Risk for Regulators Unlicensed Dynamic Set-asides for rural use With wireless in particular there is a need for more diverse strategies
- 20. Access to comprehensive fibre maps can prevent duplication, promote investment, identify coverage gaps Fibre Infrastructure Maps
- 21. Good Practice In South Africa, Dark Fibre Africa publishes a comprehensive map of their fibre network.
- 22. Tower Data
- 23. Good Practice • Operator • Location • Frequency • Height • Power
- 25. Spectrum Assignments ? ? ? ? ? ?
- 28. Conclusion • We Need Open Telecom Data to Enable Better Conversations with Regulators • Embracing Diverse Regulatory Models Will – Reduce risk for regulators – Open opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship – Future proof regulation Steve Song @stevesong https://nsrc.org https://manypossibilities.net
Editor's Notes
- #6: The decision to switch from analogue to digital broadcasting was taken in 2006 with a planned deadline of 2015. Few African countries have met or will meet this deadline. This is not surprising as the process is complex with many factors from technology choice, inter government coordination, encryption, pay vs free services all requiring decision making. However, while this has been happening, technology has been leaping ahead, with Internet devices and networks improving dramatically and new OTT services competing in traditional broadcast markets. The pace of spectrum reform is not longer adequate to the environment.