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The dual challenge: doubling yields in the face of water scarcity and climate change - Dr David Molden, IWMI
- 1. The dual challenge:doubling yields in the face of water scarcity and climate change Dr David Molden IWMI
- 2. Water for afood-secure worldWater for a food-secure world About IWMI IWMI is one of 15 research centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Mission: To improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. Where we work: Headquarters: Colombo, Sri Lanka In Africa : Ghana, Southern Africa, Ethiopia In Asia: India, Pakistan, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Central Asia, Syria
- 3. Water Scarcity 2000 1/3of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
- 4. More People –6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to double grain production by 2050 More water for food – if practices don’t change, double water needs This equation doesn’t work – something has to change Will there be enough water? More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to double grain production by 2050 More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs for agriculture will double Something has to change
- 5. Climate Change Mitigation isabout gases. Adaptation is about water.
- 6. Some areas willbe wetter, others drier Source: Arnell, 2003 – IWMI, FAO, ADB report on revitalizing irrigation.
- 7. Water Scarcity andClimate Change Some areas wetter, some areas drier
- 8. Water for afood-secure world Hydrological Modeling (SWAT) Rainfall-Runoff simulation to determine impacts of CC on flow regimes and groundwater recharge Rainfall Evapotranspiration Runoff Results – one scenario (A1B), one sub-catchment in the Volta
- 9. Variability in Precipitation Thorntonet al 2006 likely to increase with climate change
- 10. - Costs 1/3rdof growth potential - Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 year % -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 rainfall variability GDP growth Ag GDP growth Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
- 11. Growth in Yields UnitedStates China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50% because of climate change It is possible to more than double yields in SSA in spite of climate change.
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- 13. Around 70% ofthe world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited. Get water to poor people, use it better Improve and Safeguard Water Access Access to Technologies
- 14. But need tore-think water storage: role of groundwater and soil moisture. And beyond: insurance, local trade, … Cubicmeterspercapita Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability 4 43 746 1287 1406 2486 3255 4729 6150 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Kenya Ethiopia South Africa Thailand Laos China Brazil Australia North America Source:WorldBankdatafromICOLD
- 15. Water for afood-secure world Physical Water Storage Continuum
- 16. Growing Enough Food WithWater Scarcity and Climate Change David Molden
- 17. Irrigation potential developed: Egypt, Morocco, Somalia, South Africa >75% Botswana, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Mali, Malawi, Uganda 50-75% Rest < 50% % Irrigated Land INDIA: ~50 SSA: 5
- 18. Upgrade Water Managementin Rainfed Landscapes Even if large scale irrigated area doubles, the contribution to food production for SSA from irrigation would change from 5 to 11%. Rainfed land has the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains.
- 19. Consider A Rangeof Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
- 20. A range ofoptions Water sources in Krishna basin Krishna river basin 24 major reservoirs 6100 small reservoirs High groundwater use
- 21. Water for afood-secure world Map source: Survey Dept. For Water Security Storage is the best “No regret” option!
- 22. Water for afood-secure worldWater for a food-secure world Doubling Yields water + more • Access to technology, seeds, fertilizers? • Is there enough money or credit to buy them? • Are markets available to sell? • Financially viable? • Water and land resources available? • Is it sustainable – financial, ecological? • Supportive policies? • “Mind mobilization” Matsepo Khumbane
- 23. FAO - SSA245 Million 58% are rural poor AWM Team - SSA 279 Million 65% are poor AWM Team - India 220 Million 90% are poor Who could benefit from Agricultural Water Management Solutions? From Scoping Study for Agricultural Water Management Solutions Project
- 24. If this isso good, why doesn’t it happen?
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- 27. Multiple-use systems integrating domesticwater, irrigation, fisheries, livestock, industries – provide income, nutrition and health benefits, and improve water productivity health labour saving, gender resilient food and income…. ..from livestock ..from fish ..from enterprise ..from crops
- 28. Groundwater – offers opportunitiesfor the rural poor. Needs: 1) Better information on availability 1) Access to technologies 2) promote sustainable use IDE rope pump, Ethiopia
- 29. A groundwater revolutionin SSA: Benefits with little cost? Groundwater is under- utilized in Sub- Saharan Africa Cultivatedareaas%ofcellarea In Asia groundwater is often the only water available
- 30. Water for afood-secure world It is happening…. But not fast enough!
- 31. Why doesn’t ithappen faster? • Missed opportunities: –AWM falls between institutional cracks –Failure to focus on women • Water focus is on drinking water, hydropower, large irrigation • Its not just about technologies, but about markets, institutions, capacity
- 32. What will ittake? • Continuous learning from a range of knowledge and experience • A new and significantly increased capacity • Crafting solutions, paying attention to context • Adapting technologies and institutions • Engaging public, policy makers & investors • You…..
- 33. Water for afood-secure world Thank You ! “Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science” John F Kennedy