The uk in 2030 initial views

The uk in 2030 initial views

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  The UK in2030 Key Shifts and Alternative Futures – An Initial View for Debate Nov 2020
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  Purpose of thisPoint of View What will the UK be like in 2030 post-Covid, post-Brexit and post-Johnson? What changes are already locked-in and what is open to future variation? This is the starting point for exploring potential shifts for the next decade.
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  Context In times ofuncertainty, having a clear view of the next decade is a challenge. However, if we differentiate between the certain, the probable and the possible we can build a clearer picture of the future of the UK to challenge assumptions. Certain: Growing Population Probable: Increased Urbanisation Possible: More Immigration
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  THE UK IN2030: NEAR CERTAINITIES
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  What We Know Basedon detailed forecasts by multiple independent and government bodies, we know that there are several issues about the UK in 2030 of which we can be increasingly confident, if not absolutely 100% certain.
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  A Changing Demographic By2030, the UK will have the fastest growing and second largest population in Europe: SE England will be the main centre of this growth. Society will be ageing faster and proportionally we have fewer children. It will also be more diverse.
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  Emphasis on theLocal With more single households, sustained working near home and delayed retirement, many seek to make more of their local communities. Finding common interest and activities is a priority for several.
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  Declining Influence By 2030,the UK will have dropped outside the world’s top ten economies. The service sector dominates further with most income focused on the South. Public and private investment prioritise more diverse future opportunities.
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  Accelerating to ZeroCarbon As the tangible impacts of climate change such as more frequent flooding, hotter summers and shorter winters are accepted, resilience is a priority. The UK achieves 100% renewable energy supply for the majority of year.
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  Rising Inequality Continuing atrend, the UK is more unequal with a rising GINI coefficient. The share of income for the top 1% grows further, with the middle and lower classes having less disposable income. Health and education inequality also increase.
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  Digital Connectivity By 2030,5G will be available to 90% of the UK population with 6G launching. The digital divide narrows as low-cost access is delivered as a common ambition. Questions on data transparency, value and control however remain.
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  Three Alternative Futures Asthe UK deals with the aftermath of Covid, Brexit and the advent of a new King, more independent regions and new trading relationships, there are different future pathways emerging of what the nation may be like by 2030. The UK in 2030? A B C Healing Communities Free-trade Champion Regions Realigning
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  UK 2030 FuturePathway A: Free Trade Champion A low tax, low regulation Britain is open to unrestricted global trade. Technology innovation and service sector growth drive increasing GDP with benefit shared through regional infrastructure projects and skills development.
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  UK 2030 FuturePathway B: Healing Communities A regrouping around core shared values is at the heart of communities starting on a journey of reconnecting. New collaborations seek to reignite the economy, overcome recent conflict and rebuild a collective future national identity.
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  UK 2030 FuturePathway C: Regions Realigning After the fragmentation of the UK, different regions are variously moving forward. Some gain from accelerated re-integration with the EU and more self- governance while others struggle with anger and resentment as inequality rises.
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  Your Perspective onthe UK in 2030? What do you think? What will be the most significant change and how will this play out over the next decade? Please add your perspective into the mix and they can be included in the updated, more detailed, shared view in December.
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  Future Agenda 84Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | @futureagenda | [email protected]