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Theories on population
The document discusses the population theories of Thomas Malthus and Esther Boserup. Malthus believed population would grow exponentially while food production grew arithmetically, eventually leading to famine. Boserup argued population growth would stimulate agricultural and technological advances to increase food supply. The document applies each theory to Uganda, with disease and poverty supporting Malthus, and to China, where prosperity contradicts Malthus but aligns with Boserup's view of technological responses to growth. Both theories may be correct depending on a population's ability to overcome limits through advancement.
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Theories on population
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- 2. Optimum populationThis issaid to be achieved when the number of people working with all the available resources, produces the highest capital economic return. Resulting in the highest standard of living and quality of life.
- 3. OverpopulationThis is saidto occur, when there are too many people relative to the resources and technology available in an area, to maintain an adequate standard of living.
- 4. UnderpopulationThis occurrence issaid to be when there are far more resources in an area i.e. food production, energy, and minerals, than can be made use of by the people living there.
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- 6. Lived from 1776-1834He wrote “ An essay on the principle of population” in 1798It was quite revolutionary and controversial in his timeHis essay if often times described as pessimistic and barbaric, as it predicted nothing short of a catastrophe for the human race.Thomas Malthus
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- 8. Crucial point ofMalthus’s theory Malthus‘s theory was based on the assumption that the power of population is much greater than the power of the earth to provide subsistence for man. Meaning, he believed that the population would soon surpass it’s food supply. This, in his belief, could only lead to disease, high infant mortality, famine, starvation, and war.Checks were then necessary to prevent this.
- 9. Population, if leftunchecked, will grow geometrically:1,2, 4, 8,16,32Whereas food supply increasesarithmeticallyas the amount of land is finite:1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6Malthus stated that:
- 10. there wouldbe a Malthusian catastrophe:And therefore he said …PopulationFood supplyAt the point where population reaches its limit of food supply there will be war, famine and disease.Food supplyPopulationTime
- 11. Preventative and PositivechecksPreventative Checks:Positive Checks:InfanticideAbortionDelays in marriageStrict celibacyWhich all would lower the fertility rateWarDiseaseFamineWhich would increase the mortality rate and reduce life expectancy
- 12. Was Malthus Right?Didhis rather gloomy theory have any basis in truth? Critics argue that Malthus did not foresee the advancements mankind has made in technology and agriculture. So is his theory relevant to today’s society?
- 13. Malthus’s Theory AppliedDeveloping countryUganda…
- 14. Current population: 32,369,558peoplePopulation growth rate : 2.69%Population structure: 14 years and younger: 50% 15-64 years: 47.9% 65 years and over: 2.1% Birth rate47.84 births/1,000 population Death rate12.09 deaths/1,000 populationUganda
- 15. The country isrampant with disease, such as: Hepatitis A, typhoid fever, and malaria.There are little less than 1 million people living with HIV\AIDS in Uganda, and 77,000 died from it in 2007. Life expectancy is lower than 55 years for both males and females.The people depend on agriculture, but the country is landlocked and has 241,038 km2 to it’s credit. When will this cease to be enough?35% of the population lives below the poverty line.Uganda cont’d…
- 16. With the relativelyhigh growth rate of 2.69%, and 35% of the population living in poverty, leading to famine, and diseases of all kind in the country of Uganda, can Thomas Malthus’s theory be agreed with?He predicted disasters and ill fate if population growth surpassed food supply. Is Uganda not on that very dark path?Uganda cont’d…
- 17. Malthus’s Theory appliedDevelopedcountryChina…
- 18. Current population: 1,338,612,968peoplePopulation growth rate:0.655%Age structure: 0-14 years: 19.8% 15-64 years: 72.1%65 years and over: 8.1% Birth rate: 14 births/1,000 populationDeath rate:7.06 deaths/1,000 populationChina
- 19. The infant mortalityrate is 20.25 deaths/1,000 live birthsLife expectancy rate for males is 71.61 years and for females it stands at 75.52 yearsThere are 700,000 people living with HIV\AIDS, however only 39,000 people died from it in the year 2007.Only a few other diseases plague the country and the threat is minimal.The country is multifaceted and has one of the best economies in the world.As such only 2.8% of the population lives below the poverty line. China cont’d…
- 20. With the largestpopulation is the world, only 2.8% live below the poverty line. Diseases are not widespread and the few are treated effectively. There are no major wars, or famine, and the economy is booming.Was Malthus wrong then? One would think that with one of the largest population food supplies would be strained.Could China’s prosperity be related to another theory?China cont’d…
- 21. Born 1910-1999Wrote “Theconditions of agricultural growth” in 1965It opposed Malthus’s views on the matter of population.It is also viewed as a more optimistic approach to the issue of population growthEsther Boserup
- 22. When population growthfinds us pressed for food, people find ways to get more food production out of the land. They cultivate the land more intensively, they add extra manure, extra water and improve their crops. They invent their way out of the Malthusian crisis. Indeed, the Malthusian trap may even have driven the development of technology.She believed that a growth in population would stimulate a growth in agriculture and technology.Crucial points of Boserup’s theory
- 23. Malthus and BoserupAComparison
- 24. A ComparisonMalthus believed:Boserupbelieved:Food supply limits population sizePopulation growth would soon outstrip food supply.This would lead to famine, war, and disease.Preventative and positive checks would be needed.With a growth in population people would find new ways of acquiring food.This would lead to technological and agricultural advances.There would be no need to reduce population size.
- 25. If Boserup wasright, then the most technologically advanced places would be the ones closest to a Malthusian crisis. This is not so. As the places with the larger populations and near starving people, have low tech agriculture.If Malthus was right, places with large populations that are still increasing, will eventually surpass their food supply and become famine and war stricken. Or would have already done so.A Comparison cont’d….
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- 27. You don't haveto choose between Boserup and Malthus. They can both be right. Malthus is talking about the potential for a population to face limiting factors. Boserup is talking about overcoming those limits through cultural and technological advancement.