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Topic 1 policy analysis
- 1. Introduction to EmpiricalFood & Nutrition Security Analysis
- 2. Outline • Concept • Dimensions & Policy Options • State of Food Insecurity Today • Global Hunger Index • Bangladesh Scenario • Contemporary Policy Questions • Course Structure Food Security Introduction 2
- 3. Food Security The WorldFood Summit in 1996: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” Food Security Introduction 3
- 4. Food Security: FourDimensions • Access • Availability • Stabilization • Utilization Food Security Introduction 4
- 5. Food Security: PolicyOptions (i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production by modern technology/expansion of area under cultivation, (c) depleting stocks, (d) efficient market infrastructure, (e) land redistribution; (ii) Promote household/individual access to food by increasing entitlements (subsidies) or endowments (income transfers/asset redistribution/school feeding/nutrition programme); (iii) Better utilization of food by education and general environment like access to safe drinking water and sanitation. Food Security Introduction 5
- 6. State of FoodInsecurity
- 7. Food Insecurity • Amajor problem facing developing countries. • World: Number and percentage of undernourished persons 2006-2008 - 850million (13%) 2000-2002 - 836million (14%) 1995-1997 - 792million (14%) 1990-1992 - 848million (16%) 1979-1981 - 853million (21%) 1969-1971 - 878million (26%) Source: http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/ Food Security Introduction 7
- 8. Number of hungrypeople, 1969-2010 Source: FAO Food Security Introduction 8
- 9. Number of Hungryin the world: 925 million in 2010 Food Security Introduction 9
- 10. Global Hunger Index IFPRI Index Source: IFPRI
- 11. Global Hunger Index Objectives: •Rank countries. • Compare international experience for policy guidance. • Draw global attention. Food Security Introduction 11
- 12. Global Hunger Index •Sample: • Based on 120 developing and transitional countries; • Compares 88 only. • Three indicators • Un-weighted average as an index Food Security Introduction 12
- 13. Indicators # Indicator Purpose to measure 1 % of calorie deficient / Hunger under-nourished population 2 % children underweight U5 Malnutrition of children, the most vulnerable to hunger 3 U5 mortality rate (%) Child deaths caused by malnutrition & disease Food Security Introduction 13
- 14. Hunger Index Scale Index Classification Color Code ≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming 20.0 – 29.9 Alarming 10.0 – 19.9 Serious 5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger ≤ 4.9 Low hunger Food Security Introduction 14
- 15. Country Classification: n=120 7 32 E xtremely alarming 26 Alarming S erious Moderate L ow hunger 23 32 Food Security Introduction 15
- 16. Global Trends: 1990- 2008 • Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than one-fifth 1990: 18.7 2008: 15.2 • Performance by indicator % underweight children: declined by 5.9 points Food Security Introduction 16
- 17. Regional Profile: 2008 •Status: Alarming Sub-Saharan Africa: 23.3 South Asia: 23.0 • Ten countries (highest levels of hunger); nine are in Sub-Saharan Africa. • Ten best performers since 1990: None from Sub- Saharan Africa. Food Security Introduction 17
- 18. Country Profiles Best score Mauritius, followed by Jamaica, Moldova, Cuba, and Peru Worst score Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), followed by Eritrea, Burundi, Niger, and Sierra Leone Most progress Kuwait, Peru, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, and Mexico Regress DRC, North Korea, Swaziland, Guinea-Bissau, and Zimbabwe Food Security Introduction 18
- 19. Country Profiles Highest proportionof Eritrea: 75% population with calorie DRC: 74% deficiency Highest prevalence of India, Yemen, and Timor- underweight children Leste: more than 40% (a measure of malnutrition) Highest child mortality Sierra Leone: 27% (under 5) rate Angola: 26% Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction 19
- 20. Poverty Profile Food Security Introduction 20
- 21. Where Do The Poor Live? Food Security Introduction Food Security: Introduction 21
- 22. Global Index Scale Index Classification Color Code ≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming 20.0 – 29.9 Alarming 10.0 – 19.9 Serious 5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger ≤ 4.9 Low hunger Food Security Introduction 22
- 23. 2008 Global HungerIndex Source; IFPRI Food Security Introduction 23
- 24. Progress – Regress Source; IFPRI Food Security Introduction 24
- 25. GHI-Winners and Losers:1990 – 2008 Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction 25
- 26. GHI-Winners and Losers:1990 – 2011 Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction 26
- 27. GHI: Progress inSouth, East and Southeast Asia Food Security Introduction 27
- 28. Bangladesh: Food SecurityScenario http://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/food_sec.html • Nearly self-sufficient in rice; Food security an elusive goal: • About 43% of children under-five stunted; – Cause: Malnourishment due to poor feeding habits & lack of access to nutritious foods. • Lack of diversity in diet: 75% of calories from rice. • Decline in agricultural growth rate : 4.7% in the late 1990’s to 2.8% by 2008. • Agriculture: Employs 80% population generates 22% of GDP • Bangladesh’s arable area: 37% ; natural disasters can affect 30% of this land. Food Security Introduction 28
- 29. Bangladesh: Policy Priorities Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 1. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Crops, and Adaptation to Climate Change 2. Development of Fisheries and Livestock Sectors 3. Agricultural Marketing, Price Stabilization, Value Chain, and Global/Regional Trade 4. Income Growth, Social Safety Nets, and Public Food Distribution 5. Food Utilization and Nutrition Security 6. Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance and Gender Food Security Introduction 29
- 30. Contemporary Policy Questions 1.What is the state of food insecurity today? 2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be reformed as part of the economic reform programme, what would be the macroeconomic and distributional consequences? 3. What are the different policy roles that a food subsidy prorgramme can play? What is the international evidence? 4. How far an income transfer programme like food stamps is feasible in developing countries like Bangladesh and India? What is the international experience? 5. How far did Bangladesh succeed in dealing with the 1979 famine? How useful is the information base for policy formulation and implementation? 6. What are the effective alternatives to the ‘Food for Work Programme in Bangladesh’? 7. What is the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional intake of poor households in Bangladesh? Food Security Introduction 30
- 31. Course Structure • Addressesissues related to food & nutrition security within a quantitative framework. It raises issues within a quantitative framework; Describes appropriate statistical tools for analysis; Illustrates its application with reference to published studies / exercises based on sample data sets; and Interprets results and examines policy implications. Food Security Introduction 31
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- 41. Bangladesh: A FoodSecurity Profile Food Security Introduction 41
- 42. Bangladesh: Economic Indicators TotalPopulation (millions) - 2009 (WB) 162.221 Population growth rate - 2009 (WB) 1% GNI per capita, $ PPP - 2009 (WB) 1550 Population below 1$ PPP per day - 2005 49 % (MDGI) Rural population - 2009 (WB) 72 % Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - 18 2009 (WB) Food Security Introduction 42
- 43. Bangladesh: Health Indicators Pop.with sustainable access to improved 53% sanitation - 2008 (WHO) Life expectancy at birth (years) both 65% genders - 2008 (WHO) 65 Pop. with access to improved drinking 80% water sources - 2008 (WHO) Prevalence of HIV among adults aged >= 0.05% 15 years - 2009 (WHO) 0.05% Food Security Introduction 43
- 44. Bangladesh: Pursuit ofFNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 1. Integrated research and extension to develop sustainable responses to climate change . 2. Improved water management and infrastructure for irrigation purposes. 3. Increased supply and sustainable use of agricultural inputs. Food Availability 4. Development of the fisheries sector. 5. Development of the livestock sector. 6. Improved access to markets, improved agricultural value added, increased nonfarm incomes. Food Security Introduction 44
- 45. Bangladesh: Pursuit ofFNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 7. Enhanced capacity strengthening to formulate and implement food policies Food Access and related investments. 8. Enhanced public food- management systems. 9. Development of an integrated, multiyear safety net program. Food Security Introduction 45
- 46. Bangladesh: Pursuit ofFNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 10. Implementation of community-based nutrition activities through livelihood approaches. Food Utilization 11. Updated food consumption and food composition data and behavioral change communication on dietary diversification. 12. Improved food safety and quality. Food Security Introduction 46