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Transfer of transport planning policies from developed to developing nations
1) While some transport planning policies and ideas can transfer between developed and developing nations, direct transfers often fail due to differences in land use, travel behavior, data availability, and decision-making processes. 2) Urban transport planning models used in developed nations typically assume homogeneous land use and focus only on motorized congestion, neglecting important non-motorized and informal transit in developing cities. 3) Rural transport policies also differ greatly, as developing nation policies emphasize links between transport and agriculture as well as participatory community engagement, while developed nation policies focus more on accessibility and mobility issues.
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Transfer of transport planning policies from developed to developing nations
- 1. Transfer of TransportPlanning Policies from Developed to Developing Nations Tony Plumbe ITS Seminar 4 March 2015 1 1
- 2. Introduction Caveats: Much diversitywithin both developed and developing nations Making gross and maybe ill-founded generalisations Title contains a patronising bias: developed to developing nations 2
- 3. Introduction Will concentrate on4 areas: Policy transfer generically Urban transport planning and policies Economic appraisal policies Rural transport policies 3
- 4. Policy Transfer Generically Whatis meant by policy transfer? Dolowitz & Marsh (1996) “a process in which knowledge about policies, administrative arrangements and institutions in one time and/or place is used in the development of policies, administrative arrangements and institutions in another time and/or place” (Political Studies, 44 (2), 343-357)
- 5. Policy Transfer Generically:Dolowitz & Marsh Framework 1. Why engage in policy transfer? Learn from others and leap ahead ; risk aversion Responding to policy ‘promoters’ Uncertainty re goals, political support or organisational requirements Influence exerted by national and transnational agencies 5
- 6. Policy Transfer Generically:Dolowitz & Marsh Framework 2. Who is involved in the policy transfer process? 6
- 7. Policy Transfer Generically:Dolowitz & Marsh Framework 2. Who is involved in the policy transfer process? Bureaucrats and civil servants Politicians and political parties Pressure groups Policy entrepreneurs Experts and consultants Think Tanks Educational institutions Private firms Transnational corporations Federal/central government and multilateral institutions
- 8. Policy Transfer Generically:Dolowitz & Marsh Framework 3. What is transferred? Goals ) Ideologies ) Relatively simple to transfer Ideas ) Attitudes ) Content Instruments ) Programs ) Relatively difficult to transfer Institutions ) Negative lessons
- 9. Policy Transfer Generically:Dolowitz & Marsh Framework 4. What are the different degrees of transfer? Gradations :- Copying Emulation Combination/hybridisation/ synthesis Inspiration
- 10. Policy Transfer Generically:Dolowitz & Marsh Framework 5. What facilitates or restricts the policy transfer process? Resources available: personnel, time, finance ‘Search areas’ chosen Limited information available Extent of past commitments in policy environment Confidence & security in posts of individual decision-makers
- 11. Policy Transfer Generically:Dolowitz & Marsh Framework 6. How successful is the policy that was transferred? How is a policy transfer demonstrated? Less well articulated: At pre-decision stage: did policy learning influence debate? At decision-making stage: did policy transfer influence option selection, design &/or appraisal? At post-decision stage: did policy transfer influence operational efficiency, policy outcomes & future learning processes? 11
- 12. Policy Transfer Generically:Dolowitz & Marsh Framework 7. From where are lessons drawn? Local : neighbouring area or within nation National International Mediated by language, culture, constitutional system, geographical proximity & economic structure 12
- 13. Urban Transport Planning& Policies Dimitriou: Urban Transport Planning Process Involves: 1. Observing current travel behaviour 2. Adopting hypotheses re the relationships between land use & movement 3. Testing these hypotheses as a basis for making estimates of future travel demand 4. Ultimately recommending additional transport capacity 13
- 14. Urban Transport Planning& Policies 14 Transport Inventories Origin & Destination Surveys Planning Studies Traffic Forecasts Planning Forecasts Network Planning Revised Transport Networks Network Evaluation Implementation Programme Construction & Implementation Revise Planning Forecasts
- 15. Urban Transport Planning& Policies Travel Demand Modelling Trip generation Trip distribution Modal split Traffic assignment Usually assumes essentially constant travel behaviour, transport technology, land use, & land use/ traffic interaction
- 16. Urban Transport Planning& Policies Urban Transport Planning Process Embodies certain attractive concepts Extensive dependence upon simulation and quantification Gives sense of comprehensiveness Formality of approach based on principles of systems thinking Adopts a set of procedures akin to a scientific approach to problem solving Widely adopted so seen to be respectable & reliable
- 17. Urban Transport Planning& Policies: Transferability to Developing Nations? 1. Land use is zoned homogeneously 2. Belief urban transport problem is that of overcoming motorised traffic congestion 3a. Informal non-motorised and paratransit public transport do not warrant explicit consideration 3b. Propensity to neglect the pedestrian & motorcycle 4. Assumes that only slow gradual changes occur in variable affecting travel demand - dealing with huge & rapidly changing cities
- 18. City Populations millionsc2013 Jakarta 26.0 Tokyo 37.1 Seoul 22.5 New York 20.5 Delhi 22.2 Osaka 17.0 Shanghai 20.9 Los Angeles 14.9 Manila 20.8 Moscow 15.5 Karachi 20.7 Paris 10.8 Sao Paulo 20.2 Nagoya 10.0 Mexico City 19.5 London 8.6 Cairo 17.8 Populations in recognised metro area of city Beijing 17.7 & immediate suburbs outside the established Mumbai 16.9 boundary of the city Source: WorldAtlas.com/citypops.htm 18
- 19. City Population GrowthRates Source: The Context of Urban Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. https//www.citiesalliance.org/sites/citiesalliance.org/files
- 20. Urban Transport Planning& Policies: Transferability to Developing Nations? 5. Predict and provide approach – more of the same 6. Drivers of transport demand not always the same in developing as developed nations 7. Transport’s influence on & serving development objectives is often different - economic growth - equity & affordability - participatory involvement - privatisation, deregulation, promotion of private sector, regulatory bodies 8. Data availability and quality
- 21. Urban Transport Planning& Policies: Transferability to Developing Nations? 9. Rely on expensive and extensive modelling 10. Organisation of cities 11. Decision-making
- 22. Economic Appraisal Policies Traditionallybeen extensive applied given tight resource constraints and at behest of international development agencies Traditional forms: NPV, NPV/K, IRR & CBR Note interest in absolute returns (NPV), & in efficiency of use of capital (IRR) But not GVA Performed at financial and economic prices (In anglophone countries at least; francophone countries sometime use the effects method) Historically seen further development into use of distributional weightings, and shadow pricing
- 23. Economic Appraisal Policies Complexinvestment appraisal, maintenance strategy, & even emissions models been developed: HDM4 (Highway Development & Management Model) Like UK DMRB + TUBA + a Road Deterioration Model rolled into one Cost Effectiveness Analysis Time Values: culturally bound. Under- and unemployed resources. Concept will transfer but not values Valuation of accident costs (value of life): 1.5 – 2.5% of GDP p.a. lost to road accidents. Again concept will transfer but not values. Relationship to improving a road may be perverse Elasticities: scarce in developing nations
- 24. Economic Appraisal Policies Pricingpolicies and cost recovery - full cost recovery & elimination of subsidies pushed by IMF & World Bank - fuel subsidies Discriminant pricing policies: rail & air transfer of principles okay Road pricing policies Economic appraisal policies apply equally to (ex-post) evaluation which is generally performed better with valid ‘with’ vs ‘without’ comparisons rather than ‘after’ vs ‘before’
- 25. Rural Transport Policies Muchdiscordance between developed and developing nations so scope for transfer is limited Rural Transport policies in developed nations concentrate on: Accessibility Higher costs of motorised rural transport Social exclusion and mobility of the elderly Operation of community transport services or infrequent rural buses Quality of internet services as substitute for rural mobility
- 26. Rural Transport Policies Somedeveloped nation rural transport policies resonate in developing countries – accessibility, affordability & multi-purpose vehicles But much of focus of rural transport policies in developing nations is very different: Interplay of transport with economic activity especially agriculture but also other rural economic enterprise Policies re rural non-motorised transport prominent: walking, cycling, trails, pedestrian stream/river crossings (intermediate and labour intensive technologies) Adoption of participatory engagement of local communities for effective planning and implementation The advent of the mobile (cell) phone
- 27. Opportunities for TransportPolicy Transfers from Developing to Developed Nations Paratransit especially to rural areas Policies re the distribution of benefits (Growth & equity) Understanding the links between transport policies and economic development Road Funds
- 28. Conclusions Yes: Ideas Instruments Negative lessons Someanalytical techniques Some attitudes Be Wary: Institutions Assumptions embodied in computerised modelling or approaches Cultures & anything perceived as ‘foreign’ Decision-making processes