Unmistakably Target: The power of ‘Tar-zhay’ in a competitive environment
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The document outlines Kantar's retail insights for North America, predicting slow to moderate growth in the US market through 2025 and highlighting an increase in online sales, although still below pandemic levels. It also emphasizes that shoppers are becoming more value-conscious, balancing price with experience and quality when making purchasing decisions. Additionally, the report notes a significant portion of consumers are using social media for commerce and engaging with retailers online.
Unmistakably Target: The power of ‘Tar-zhay’ in a competitive environment
- 1. Rachel Dalton Head of Retail Insights, North America, Kantar January 2025 Insights driving the retail landscape in
- 2. 2 Source: Kantar Kantar’s five themes for 2025 and beyond Navigating crosscurrents Decisive retail Cohesive ecosystem Value reset AI advantage
- 3. 3 -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 0.5% 4.1% 3.5% -0.1% The US market is showing signs of slow to moderate growth Source: Kantar, US Department of Commerce Demand growth holding steady Quarterly Forecast (year-to-year percentage change) Unit demand growth Nominal growth Prices
- 4. 4 Growth will strengthen in the next five years Source: Kantar 4 Kantar US Chain Sales (USD) $2.3T $3.1T $3.2T $4.0T 6.0% 3.3% 4.6% 2018 2023 2029E 2024E CAGR CAGR CAGR
- 5. 5 Source: Kantar Online sales added to increase but will likely remain below the pandemic surge Online vs. brick-and-mortar sales added Then (2018-23) Now (2023-24E) Next (2024E-29E) 58% Brick-and- mortar 42% Online
- 6. 6 Source: Kantar Online sales added to increase but will likely remain below the pandemic surge Online vs. brick-and-mortar sales added Then (2018-23) Now (2023-24E) Next (2024E-29E) 40% Online 60% Brick-and- mortar
- 7. 7 Source: Kantar Online sales added to increase but will likely remain below the pandemic surge Online vs. brick-and-mortar sales added Then (2018-23) Now (2023-24E) Next (2024E-29E) 39% Online Online: 8.2% Brick-and-mortar: 3.6% CAGR 2024E-29E: 61% Brick-and- mortar
- 8. 8 Online Category specialist Supermarket Supercenter Club Drug Value Apparel Convenience Department $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 8% 3% 3% 5% 6% 2% 5% 3% 3% -1% 2024E Sales added 2024E-29E CAGR 2024E-29E In the US, retail dollar growth is driven by the online channel, while supercenters come in second Source: Kantar US Retail Sales by Channel, 2024E-29E (USD, billions)
- 9. 9 Shoppers’ assessment of their ability to afford everyday essentials is beginning to trend upward Source: ShopperScape, January 2019-November 2024 Shoppers With Positive Assessment of Ability to Afford Everyday Essentials (share of all shoppers who assess household status as excellent/very good) 50% Trendline 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
- 10. 10 Value is what you get, not what you pay It’s important for me to stick to a budget 63% 65% 65% 64% 63% 66% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD Shoppers are increasing their focus on value from two perspectives 63% 60% 59% 61% 63% 65% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD Source: ShopperScape, January-December 2019-23 and January-September 2024 What’s Important When Shopping: Value (share of all shoppers who agree statement describes them, top two-box)
- 11. 11 After two years, shoppers are signaling a willingness to focus on more than just price Source: ShopperScape, February 2019-24 How Shoppers Are Thinking About Price/Value Trade-Offs (share of all shoppers who choose statement vs. an opposite statement) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 39% 41% 44% 43% 40% 44% I am willing to spend a little more to shop a retailer that has a nice shopping experience 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 51% 51% 55% 54% 48% 52% I buy the products I want, whether they are on sale or not 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 59% 58% 60% 56% 53% 57% I am willing to spend a little more for a product that reflects my values
- 12. 12 While lower cost remains the most important overall motivator for buying private brands, quality and shopper affirmation are growing in importance Source: ShopperScape Grocery Deep Dive, Q1-Q4 2021-23; Q1-Q3 2024 64% 67% 69% 68% Makes me feel like a smarter shopper Because of product quality 52% 54% 56% 56% 50% 52% 54% 55% Because they cost less Reasons Shoppers Buy Private Label Products (among all shoppers, share of shoppers who strongly agree/agree) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 “ “ “
- 13. 13 Be entertained/entertainment Browse, discover, or search for products/items Research new products to buy Use social media to compare products and prices Watch influencer/celebrity reviews for products Read/write product reviews and recommendations Click on ads to learn more about products or make purchases Purchased products/items I saw on social media at another retailer Purchased products/items at the social media shop Follow or interact with groups/topics Follow brands/retailers for updates and promotions Join groups or communities for specific products or brands Participate in giveaways and contests hosted by brands/retailers Share my recent shopping purchases with followers/friends 40 29% 25% 20% 19% 19% 21% 18% 15% 27% 19% 18% 16% 15% Significant numbers of shoppers use social media for commerce and connecting with retailers Source: ShopperScape Evolving Online Landscape — Global, July-August 2024 Research/ discover Purchase Loyalty/ community Entertain Activities Done on Social Media (among all US online shoppers)
- 14. 14 Shoppers have a consistent perspective on the retailers that are best at creating connections Source: ShopperScape, January-September 2024 Top-Rated FDM Retailers That Shoppers Look Forward to Shopping (among past four-week retailer shoppers, based on share of shoppers who indicated this describes shopping experience at retailer)
- 15. 15 Source: ShopperScape, January-November 2024 Target is winning across the key benefits of value, experience, and connection Evaluation of the Shopping Experience at Target (among past four-week Target shoppers, share who indicate statement describes Target) 35% 27% 32% 29% 27% 20% 37% 25% 35% 28% 31% 21% Value Experience Connection Average across all retailers Target
- 16. 16 Download a copy of Rachel’s presentation and more Kantar insights.
- 17. For further information please refer to retailiq.kantar.com Contact: Rachel Dalton Head of Retail Insights, North America [email protected] THANK YOU
- 18. 18 Copyright © 2025 Kantar LLC. All Rights Reserved. 111 Huntington Ave., 20th Floor, Boston, MA 02199 Notice No part of these materials may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photography, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without the express written permission of Kantar Consulting. The printing of any copies for backup is also strictly prohibited. Disclaimers The analyses and conclusions presented in these materials represent the opinions of Kantar Consulting. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the retailer(s) under discussion. These materials are not endorsed or otherwise supported by the management of any of the companies or organizations discussed herein.
- 19. 19 Why Kantar Retail? https://retailiq.kantar.com/iq Growth-enabling syndicated data and action-oriented insights from global experts. articles, infographics, and presentations published this year to empower you and your teams to go further, faster. We help clients… 1. Decide confidently based on robust data, insights and forecasting 2. Respond quickly with an expert POV on shifting market dynamics 3. Manage uncertainty with timely coverage of a fast-moving world 4. Capitalize on long-term growth opportunities and emerging trends Amplified by Expert counsel Experiences
- 20. 20 Monthly ShopperScape® survey tracks shopper choice, behavior, and sentiment A mix of trended and one-off topical questions drive understanding, influence, and unlock opportunity Who is your shopper? Demographics that matter: generations, income, household composition, urbanicity, and more shoppers monthly Genpop US Rep 3,000 Where and how are they shopping? Retailer shopped, store and online, fulfillment method used, retailer role, reputation, membership influence 115+ What matters to shoppers? ShopperDNA personas, sentiment & influencers, reliable monthly trending around finances, household & values years of trended sample 5+ retailers What categories shopped and why? Retailer choice drivers, where spend the most and why across dozens of categories categories 35+ Overview of US* ShopperScape® ® Monthly Tracker Monthly* Quarterly* Trended data and topical Every month: a mix of repeating questions plus three to five just in time *Data above reflects scope and frequency of US Monthly Tracker. **ShopperScape Canada reaches 2,000 shoppers quarterly, 105+ retailers, 35+ categories and likewise has 5+ years of trended sample. https://retailiq.kantar.com/shopper