Unsustainable The Urgent Need To Transform Society And Reverse Climate Change Richard Joy

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“An insightful, sobering yet ultimately empowering book.
The depth of the research is extremely impressive, the arguments
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future of the planet.”
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“A great manual on how to get the planning and action for dealing
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understanding of climate problems as well as climate solutions.”
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reinforces the wicked problems we face to save our planet, and
challenges us all to step up and make the sacrifices required.”
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Infrastructure Modernisation Programme,
British Antarctic Survey
“Revelatory! Richard unwinds the complexity in the perils of
continuing our free-market economic models to deliver timely
prescriptives for an environmentally sustainable, socially equitable
and achievable economic recovery.”
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Planting Officer of 100K Trees for Humanity

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out how we can transform our lives. He puts climate change and
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commitment for our sustainability. This book is a crucial part
of this commitment.”
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and York Business Schools
“Richard Joy dares to face reality and surprises with advantageous
outcomes of refraining from economic growth. An inspiring,
versatile master reflection on sociopolitical systems for realists
and doers!”
Kirsten M. Florentine Weber, Climate Physicist at the
Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures, University of
Sheffield and Co-Chair of the Environmental Sustainability
Rotary Action Group (ESRAG), Great Britain & Ireland

UNSUSTAINABLE
The Urgent Need to Transform Society
and Reverse Climate Change
Richard Joy

First published in Great Britain in 2021 by
Bristol University Press
University of Bristol
1-
9 Old Park Hill
Bristol
BS2 8BB
UK
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© Bristol University Press 2021–
2026
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
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ISBN 978-1-5292-1802-2 paperback
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The right of Richard Joy to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by
him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved: no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,
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The statements and opinions contained within this publication are solely those of
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Cover design: Clifford Hayes
Front cover image: Getty Images/Ted Mead
Bristol University Press uses environmentally responsible print partners.
Printed and bound in Great Britain by CMP, Poole

v
Contents
List of Figures and Tables vi
Preface vii
PART I The State of the World 1
1 Setting the Context 3
2 The State of the World 16
3 Implications of COVID-
19 37
PART II The Process of Change 57
4 Preparing for Change 59
5 Effective Government Intervention 81
6 The Energy Transition 90
7 Moving Away from Growth and Profit 104
8 Factors Critical to Successful Change 123
9 Barriers to Change 138
10 Perceptions and Reality 150
PART III The Call to Action 165
11 The Great Transition 167
12 Action Plans for Governments 177
13 Personal Accountability 198
14 A New Political Movement 207
15 Can We Make It? 219
Notes 228
Index 236

vi
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
1.1 Changes in average global temperatures 6
2.1 Key indicators correlated to climate change 17
2.2 CO2
emissions from tropical forest losses 19
2.3 Combined heating influence of greenhouse gases 20
2.4 Forces of disruption 36
5.1 Factors that determine outcomes 86
6.1 UK Government emission target policy gap 92
6.2 Carbon reduction scenarios 93
8.1 Factors enabling successful change 133
10.1 Perceptions of the impact of change 151
11.1 Transition scenarios 169
13.1 Four key interdependencies 205
15.1 The financial cost of extreme weather events 222
15.2 The global wealth pyramid 226
Tables
2.1 Projected decline of species at different scenarios for
climate change
22
3.1 Countries with low death rates 41
3.2 Requirements for an effective track and trace capability 42
6.1 Carbon reduction targets to achieve net zero by 2050 91
6.2 Percentage consumption of the primary energy
sources
100
6.3 Atmospheric parts per million 1870–
2019 101
6.4 Forecasting the remaining carbon budget 102

vii
Preface
It is increasingly clear that climate change threatens the future
of the planet. Immediate and radical action is required, yet the
current pace of change seems unlikely to provide an effective
response. This book seeks to understand the reasons for this
lack of action and it considers whether our political and
economic institutions are capable of managing the rapid scale
of transformation that is required.
The idea for this book resulted from numerous discussions
with my father, an academic who taught at the University of
Cambridge, London School of Economics and as a professor
at University of Sussex. He also has many years’ consulting
experience with United Nations (UN) agencies. Over the last
few years, we have become increasingly concerned that the
current socio-
economic model is unsustainable and this book
brings together his experience as an academic, and my own
perspective as a consultant specializing in strategic change.
This book is not a rant at big business or politicians –well,
maybe in parts –nor is it a message of gloom and hopelessness.
Instead, it seeks to understand the reasons why there has been
such a lack of action when it is clear that the current trajectory
is heading for disaster. As well as examining the causes of this
apparent inertia, the book seeks to identify the drivers of change
that could help us move towards a more sustainable socio-
economic model.
The book also expresses frustration with intergovernmental
organizations, governments and politicians. However, any
criticisms need to be balanced with an acknowledgement that
many governments and politicians do recognize the need to act
and many of them, including the UK government, are starting
to place the environment high on their political agenda.

UNSUSTAINABLE
viii
The term vested interests is used rather frequently and it is
probably worth clarifying that this is a shorthand for organizations
and individuals that use their wealth, power and influence to
protect activities that would be disrupted by requirements to
operate more sustainably. In simple terms, profits would be
reduced if organizations had to account for the environmental
cost of their activities. However, this frequent reference to the
apparently dark and sinister forces of vested interests is not a
blanket condemnation of all corporate organizations. There are
many organizations doing amazing things to speed the transition
to a sustainable society and this book is rooted in the idea that
the drive towards a more sustainable society needs to be led
by innovative business leaders and must utilize the strengths
of the market economy. Many organizations already see the
commercial imperative to operate more sustainably and recognize
the financial and reputational benefits that this brings. There is a
growing number of business leaders who are transforming their
organizations by their conviction, morality and vision. Their
ability to drive change is one of the primary sources of hope
that a sustainable future is within our grasp. This determination
to build a more sustainable society is also reflected in many small
businesses that are finding new ways to save our environment
and serve their communities.
There is no doubt that the planet is on a dangerous trajectory,
but this book believes that radical social, economic and political
change is possible. Indeed, it is not only possible but the process
of transition offers huge potential benefits and should be seen as
an opportunity for civilization to evolve for the better. While
acknowledging that some positive change is already happening,
this book is critical of the pace of change and the collective failure
of the international community to commit to actions that will
achieve the necessary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
within the very limited period that is available.
To understand the scale of the challenge that we face it is
useful to reference a statement by Sir David Attenborough at the
2018 Climate Change Conference held in Katowice, Poland.
His address to the conference warned of the urgent need for
leaders to take action. “Right now, we are facing a man-
made
disaster of global scale. Our greatest threat in thousands of years.

Preface
ix
Climate Change. If we don’t take action the collapse of our
civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is
on the horizon.”
Reversing the current trajectory of global warming will
require unprecedented levels of international cooperation, both
politically and across the corporate world. However, it is not
only political and corporate change that is required, there also
needs to be a transformation in the values, attitudes and beliefs
that underpin our societies and economic systems.
This book will frequently refer to climate change but this should
be interpreted broadly as encompassing all the various facets
of climate change and global warming. In addition, climate
change should also be recognized as intricately linked to changes
within the natural environment. Not only does damage to the
environment affect the climate, such as the destruction of rain
forest, but climate change has a dramatic impact on all aspects of
life on earth. The interdependency between the climate and the
natural environment creates a complex system where rising global
temperatures trigger events that cause feedback loops, which in
turn amplify the causes of climate change. The nightmare scenario
is that we reach a tipping point and the feedback effects trigger
runaway global warming, and human intervention becomes
powerless to reverse ever-
increasing global temperatures.
This book is offered in the hope that it might influence opinion
and support informed discussion. It offers ideas and proposals,
but it is cautious of offering solutions, as the scale of the problem
is so vast and the complexity of detail so overwhelming that it
is impossible to give a definitive answer. Instead, the focus is
more on clarifying the principles that need to be understood,
identifying the capabilities required and defining the factors that
influence outcomes.
At its heart, this book seeks to address the question: Is our current
civilization likely to survive? To answer this question it considers
the scale of the challenge we face, the potential consequences
if we fail to address it and most significantly, if we possess the
capabilities that are required to manage a process of radical social
and economic change.
During the period of writing this book (about five years), the
scientific projections were continually changing. At the start,

UNSUSTAINABLE
x
there was a broad sense that climate change was serious but
manageable. Over the next few years, there was a growing sense
that the world was heading for an environmental disaster and
that we are perilously close to the tipping point. Hopefully, we
have not yet reached that point, but it is increasingly clear that
human civilization is in real and imminent danger. Unless the
causes of global warming are addressed immediately, there is a
very real possibility that we may pass the tipping point, leading
to runaway global warming.
The structure of the book
This book is in three parts:
• Part I considers the current state of the world and the need
for sustainable social and economic development.
• Part II addresses the process of change and the capabilities
required if we are to transition to a sustainable socio-
economic model.
• Part III considers the practical actions that each of us can take.
A recurring theme throughout the book is the idea that
significant change will only happen when political leaders are
subject to scrutiny from an informed electorate and corporate
leaders respond to the demands of environmentally conscious
consumers. Hopefully, this book will raise awareness of the
problems we face, enable the actions of politicians to be evaluated
and encourage consumers to support those organizations that
demonstrate environmental accountability.
newgenprepdf

1
PART 1
The State of the World
Part I provides a review of the key scientific data relating to the
causes of climate change and sets out the implications of this
scientific evidence.
There is overwhelming agreement within the scientific
community that climate change is real, happening fast and
threatening the future of the natural environment that supports
life on earth. The difficulty facing anyone in reviewing the
scientific evidence is that it is not always easy to find a single,
definitive answer. There is a massive volume of data from a
multitude of sources. Researchers are continually publishing
reports and our understanding of the data is always evolving.
During the course of writing this book it quickly became
apparent that the more we learnt, the more we understood about
the extent of the dangers that we faced. Each new revelation
suggested that things were worse than we had previously thought.

3
1
Setting the Context
Chapter summary
This chapter offers an initial assessment of the key scientific data,
including a brief explanation of how global temperatures are
measured and two of the key indicators used to track carbon in
the atmosphere. This chapter also considers the rate of reduction
that will be required if global emissions of greenhouse gases are to
be limited to levels that will avoid a rise greater than 1.5°C. There
is a brief explanation of the difference between economic growth,
development and sustainability, as the ability to distinguish these
three terms has important implications for policy decisions by
governments.Finally,thechapterraisestheneedforaneweconomic
model, rather than perpetuating the current industrial economic
model that is dependent on mass consumerism, the exploitation of
the natural world and a failure to account for the environmental,
economic and social consequences that inevitably follow.
The basic problem
Human activity is consuming the world’s resources at a rate that
cannot be supported. In addition, our industrialized economies
are damaging the atmosphere, the oceans and the natural world
with drastic consequences for the delicate balance of the planet’s
natural equilibrium. It is clear that climate change is happening
and that human activity is pushing us along a trajectory that may
soon become irreversible.

UNSUSTAINABLE
4
Although CO2
is the primary cause of human related global
warming, other greenhouse gases include methane, in large part
from animal agriculture, nitrous oxide, much of it caused by
agricultural fertilizers, and a multitude of industrially produced
gases, particularly refrigerants. The scientific evidence is
unambiguous and the emission of greenhouse gases has to be
virtually eliminated.
Much of the debate on greenhouse gases focuses on CO2
,
and climate scientists will often refer to parts per million or the
carbon budget, where:
• Parts per million measures a given concentration of CO2
, and
this is linked to a projected increase in global temperatures.
• Carbon budget is an estimate of the maximum limit on the
total cumulative number of tonnes of CO2
that can be released
into the atmosphere for any given rise in global temperatures.
These values are estimated, but information produced by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has the
following projections.
Parts per million
Parts per million, as at March 2021 was 417.64 ppm. This
represents an increase of 2.9 ppm compared to levels 12 months
previously.1
Predicting the future rate of carbon emissions is
difficult since there the demand for energy is increasing and the
rate of conversion to zero emission energy is uncertain. A quote
from an IPCC report emphasizes the urgent need to halt the
use of fossil fuels.
Despite extraordinary growth in renewable fuels
over the past decade, the global energy system is still
dominated by fossil fuel sources. The annual increase
in global energy use is greater than the increase in
renewable energy, meaning that fossil fuel use continues
to grow. This growth needs to halt immediately. (IPCC
Report. Landmark United in Science Report Informs
Climate Action Summit, September 2019)

Setting the Context
5
Carbon budget
The carbon budget is used to calculate the relationship between
rises in global temperatures and carbon emissions. Based
on projections of the rate at which CO2
is emitted into the
atmosphere this data seeks to estimate how many years it will
take to reach a given rise in global temperature. The scientific
projections vary. Some forecasts suggest that the 1.5°C threshold
may be reached in 15–
20 years. Other forecasts suggest that
the existing atmospheric carbon emissions are already at levels
that will take us past the 1.5°C threshold. Even an optimistic
interpretation of the data shows that we only have a few years
left in which to become net-
zero.
Carbon emissions remain in the atmosphere for decades. It
takes up to 200 years for 80 per cent of CO2
emissions to be
absorbed by the oceans, although this increases the concentration
of CO2
in the oceans causing another set of problems. It takes
hundreds of years for carbon emissions to be completely
absorbed by natural processes, so even if we stopped emitting
CO2
immediately, we would be living with the consequences
for several hundred years.
Average global temperatures
It is important to understand what is being measured when
there is discussion of average global temperatures. At first sight, it
might seem almost irrelevant to worry about a 1°C increase in
global temperature, since we know that temperatures continually
change with the seasons and that the range of temperatures in
different parts of the world can vary enormously. Also, we know
that the planet has been through various periods of warming
and cooling, most notably, there have been a number of ice ages
that have then been followed by periods of warming. So why
worry about a 1°C increase?
The first point to understand is that the change in average
global temperatures is a measure based on a sample of
temperature readings taken around the planet throughout
each year. Scientists are continually measuring temperatures
at locations around the globe, both on land and at sea. These

UNSUSTAINABLE
6
measurements are compared year-
on-
year for the same time
periods to track differences. The average of these increases/
decreases gives a long-
term trend. Early data on global
temperatures was collected in the latter part of the 1800s, and
changes in average global temperatures are measured against
this initial data.
Figure 1.1: Changes in average global temperatures
Source: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)2
Figure 1.1 shows the trend in average global temperatures;
however, the actual temperatures in one specific area might vary
significantly above or below the historical norm. For example,
one region might experience unusually cold winters, while in
other regions, the temperatures could be far higher than the
historical norm.
The discussion on climate change invariably refers to the
average increase in global temperatures, but it is this variation that
is likely to cause the real problem for human communities and
regional ecosystems. For example, in the last few years the Indian
sub-
continent has experienced peak summer temperatures
that are up to 15°C degrees higher than they were 20 years
ago. Similarly, Siberia is experiencing summer temperatures
that are more than 20°C higher than recent norms, causing
permafrost to melt and release huge quantities of previously
trapped methane.

Setting the Context
7
Is human activity to blame?
Research by John Cook et al (2013) showed that academic
papers on climate change overwhelmingly endorse the view
that the current dramatic increase in global warming is caused
by human activity, also referred to as anthropogenic global
warming (AGW). ‘Among papers expressing a position on
AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-
ratings,
97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus
on AGW.’3
Six years later, research showed that the level of consensus
among research scientists on AGW has grown to 100 per cent
(based on a review of 11,602 peer-
reviewed articles on climate
change and global warming).4
However, this level of unanimity within the scientific
community is not reflected within the wider population and
public perceptions of climate change vary widely. Research
by John Cook et al shows that: ‘57% of the US public either
disagree or are unaware that scientists overwhelming believe that
the earth is warming due to human activity.’
This lack of public understanding is due, in part, to campaigns
designed to confuse the public about the causes of climate change
and deliberate attempts to create an impression that there is a
lack of consensus among climate scientists. Two reasons are
commonly used to contradict the evidence that human activity is
to blame. The first is the earth has always gone through natural cycles
that move between ice age and a more temperate climate. The second
is the current increase in global temperatures is caused by sunspots.
There is an element of truth in both these arguments. Clearly,
the planet does go through warm and cold phases. However,
these periods of natural climate change occur over thousands of
years, whereas human induced climate change has occurred at
an extraordinarily rapid rate with dramatic changes seen in less
than 100 years. Similarly, sunspot activity may have some effects
on earth’s climate, but any such impact is minimal and does not
account for the steady increase that has been experienced over
the last 100 years.
If governments are to implement the dramatic changes required
to address climate change, it will be essential to have the support

UNSUSTAINABLE
8
of voters and consumers. The current public confusion over the
causes of climate change, and indeed, perceptions that it may not
be a significant threat, has to be addressed. It is imperative that the
wider public understand the key issues and can make informed
decisions about the political changes that will be required if we
are to move towards a sustainable economic model.
Greater public concern for global warming will require
an understanding of the linkage between the rise in global
temperature and the causal factors such as CO2
emissions
and methane emissions. In addition, there needs to be a
better understanding of the linkage between damage to the
natural environment, particularly deforestation, and the risk of
feedback loops.
The challenge facing humanity is to reduce carbon emissions
rapidly over the next decade and to be carbon neutral before
2050. The scale of the task confronting us is enormous and it is
important that there is a managed transition to renewables. We
have to act now so that we avoid reaching a cliff edge where we
either stop using all forms of fossil fuel, or cross the tipping point
beyond which human intervention will be unable to reverse
climate change.
The Paris Climate Conference, 2015
The 21st Conference of the Parties in Paris, 2015 (COP
21) was a landmark in international cooperation. One hundred
and ninety-
six countries reached consensus on the urgency to
tackle climate change. Subsequently, 174 countries committed
to incorporate their obligations within their own legal systems.
However, while the achievement of the Paris Conference should
not be underestimated, there are three main flaws:
• The parties agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C
and “pursue efforts”to limit the increase to 1.5°C. However,
the ambition to “pursue efforts”is vague and leaves the door
open for an increase above 1.5°C.5
• The signatories to the agreement set voluntary targets
for future greenhouse gas emissions, not legally binding

Setting the Context
9
commitments, although several countries have subsequently
enshrined their goals in law.
• The collective emissions of these voluntary targets exceed the
required limit on greenhouse gas emissions and current policies
are projected to cause global temperatures to rise by 2–3°C.6
The Paris conference was an important milestone and we should
not belittle the intention to reach international agreement, but
equally, we should not treat the Paris Agreement as the road map
that will lead us away from disaster. It was a political compromise
and needs to be replaced with an agreement that legally binds
nations to emission quotas that will limit global warming to
1.5°C. One of the aspirations for the 2020 Conference of Parties,
which had been scheduled to take in place in Glasgow until it
was cancelled due to COVID-
19, was to address this issue.
One of the frustrations for observers of the annual Conference
of Parties is that protecting the global economy appears to
take priority over avoiding an environmental catastrophe. This
frustration was summed up when Greta Thunberg was invited
to address the UN Climate Action Summit. When asked what
her message was to the gathering of world leaders, she said, “We
will be watching you.” She went on to say:
For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal
clear. How dare you continue to look away and
come here saying that you’re doing enough, when
the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere
in sight.
You say you hear us and that you understand the
urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am,
I do not want to believe that. Because if you really
understood the situation and still kept on failing
to act, then you would be evil. And that I refuse
to believe.
The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in
10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below
1.5 degrees, and the risk of setting off irreversible
chain reactions beyond human control.

UNSUSTAINABLE
10
Fifty percent may be acceptable to you. But those
numbers do not include tipping points, most
feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic
air pollution or the aspects of equity and climate
justice. They also rely on my generation sucking
hundreds of billions of tons of your CO2
out of the air
with technologies that barely exist. So, a 50% risk is
simply not acceptable to us: we who have to live with
the consequences. (Greta Thunberg: address to the
UN Climate Action Summit, 2019)7
The next major opportunity for world leaders to demonstrate
their commitment to reduce carbon emissions will be the
delayed COP 26 event, in Glasgow, November 2021. Perhaps
2021 will be the year when world leaders acknowledge that they
need to place the environment ahead of the economy. With
luck, we will see economic strategies designed to protect the
planet, rather than environmental strategies designed to protect
the economy.
2020 changed the way we live and how we work. It highlighted
the divisions in society and recalibrated the value that we place
on different jobs. Maybe, a post-
COVID-
19 world will provide
an opportunity to challenge aspects of modern society previously
regarded as sacrosanct, such as cheap energy, unrestricted
exploitation of natural resources and mass consumerism. The
threat of COVID-
19 forced governments to take actions
that would have been unimaginable prior to January 2020.
Perhaps there has been a shift in the role of governments from
promising that standards of living will improve, to reassuring
their populations that their safety is paramount.
We have seen criticism of governments that have attempted to
‘keep the economy going’, rather than take aggressive action to
control a crisis. We saw politicians offer reassurances that they
were doing a great job, yet death rates climbed. We wait to see
whether the same behavioural characteristics will be exhibited
in November 2021 when political leaders set out their actions
to control climate change.
At the time of writing, there was little information on the
official government website to describe the objectives, agenda or

Setting the Context
11
expectations for COP 26. There is a section on a competition
for young people to ‘… paint, draw or design a piece of art …’,
there is a section on ‘Together for Our Planet’, that proclaims
“… each of us has a part to play …”, but there is not much
information about the scale of the challenge, the limited time
available or any intention to commit world leaders to implement
the radical changes required. Perhaps this is an unfair poke at a
website that seeks to engage with an audience that may not be
subject matter experts. But even so, it hardly offers reassurance
that the event will be taking decisions to protect the future
of civilization.
The need for urgent action
Our current, highly industrialized, economic model drives ever-
increasing levels of production by the exploitation of the planet’s
natural resources. If we are to address the threat of climate change,
we not only need technical change (eg electric vehicles, renewable
energy, biodegradable plastics), we also need behavioural change,
(eg a recognition that our societies need to be environmentally
sustainable). Ultimately, it is the behaviour of individuals that will
put pressure on organizations and governments to act in ways
that support a sustainable global economy.
Transitioning to a sustainable economy offers huge potential
for innovation, wealth creation and increases in the standard of
living. Although we stand at a perilous point in human history,
there are many reasons to be optimistic:
• New technologies offer cost-
effective energy from
renewable sources.
• Many countries are already implementing these technologies.
• There is a small but influential minority that is pushing
governments to adopt environmentally responsible policies.
• The corporate sector is starting to recognize the commercial
opportunities created by adopting environmentally
responsible strategies.
However, we still face many barriers, particularly from within
the national governments that will need to make the necessary

UNSUSTAINABLE
12
binding, international agreements. Probably the biggest issues
to be addressed are:
• The level of inertia within many national governments.
• The lack of capability within governments to manage the
scale of social and economic change required.
• The ability of corporate interests to influence political policy.
• The pursuit of national self-
interest.
A matter of terminology
Before going any further it might be useful to clarify our use of
the terms growth, development and sustainable. This may seem an
obsession with semantics, but an understanding of these terms
is important.
Growth
Governments frequently refer to growth as a key objective.
Growth is usually measured by the value of goods and services
produced by a country, normally measured by gross domestic
product (GDP). However, a single measure such as GDP tells
us little about the quality of life for individuals, families or
communities. Countries may show a steady growth in GDP,
but at the same time there could be growing social problems
such as crime, drug addiction and unemployment. A country’s
economy may grow, but the gap between the wealthy and the
rest of society might, and frequently does, get wider.
Development
Development is concerned with a wide range of issues that we
might broadly categorize as quality of life. In emerging economies,
the goals frequently relate to issues such as better education,
improved health care, reduced levels of infant mortality and
improvements to agriculture. However, we need to be careful
because development is often used in the context of economic
development and this may have greater focus on economic
growth, rather than the development of society and the quality

Setting the Context
13
of life. This distinction is important because intergovernment
agencies such as the UN frequently adopt strategies that boost
national GDP (growth) but may not necessarily address the
quality of life for the poor (development).
The distinction between growth and development is particularly
important for organizations such as the World Bank and
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Many of their programmes
within emerging economies have pursued economic growth but,
in the process, might have exploited natural resources, displaced
communities or transferred land ownership rights away from
local communities. As a consequence, economic growth might
increase, but the impact on society might be higher levels of
unemployment and greater levels of inequality.
Sustainable
The third term that needs to be understood is sustainable. In this
book, we will use the term to describe activities that avoid lasting
damage to the natural environment. A sustainable economy will
need to fulfil a range of requirements, for example:
• Energy produced without creating greenhouse gases.
• Industrial activity based on renewable resources and
recyclable materials.
• Manufacturing and agricultural processes that avoid greenhouse
gas emissions and pollution to rivers, oceans and the air.
• Economic resources sourced without destruction of the
natural environment and ensure that land is managed in ways
that protect ecosystems.
• Consumer goods designed so that materials can be recycled
or the materials are biodegradable.
It is worth stressing that the goal for sustainable economic
activity is to provide societies with standards of living that are
comparable, or better than, our existing lifestyles. A sustainable
economic model does not require a return to some version
of a pre-
industrial society. The examples listed above are not
a fanciful wish list for the future but are practical options
available today. The primary reason that many organizations

UNSUSTAINABLE
14
choose not to pursue these strategies is that sustainable methods
often incur additional costs. For most organizations, damage to
the environment does not show up as a cost in their financial
accounts yet implementing actions to mitigate environmental
damage is frequently a cost that reduces profit.
The principle that organizations should operate in ways that are
environmentally responsible is not new. Over the last 100 years,
there has been considerable legislation designed to protect the
environment and we can build on these achievements. A key
principle of future policy should be that organizations are
responsible for the environmental cost of their activities, the
so-called polluter pays principle. However, many governments
are reluctant to impose this type of burden on the corporate
sector and therefore there has been a lack of political will to
introduce polluter pays legislation. One reason for the lack of
progress is that it requires international agreement to become
fully effective, otherwise those countries that ignored this type of
legislation would produce cheaper goods and have competitive
advantage. Another reason is that exploitation of natural resources
provides the primary source of wealth for some economies. Until
alternative sources of wealth are available, there is little incentive
to stop such activities.
Achieving international cooperation on issues such as polluter
pays and agreements to stop the destruction of the natural
environment will require the authority of organizations such
as the UN. The next few chapters will look at the role of the
intergovernmental organizations, such as the UN and World
Bank and will consider how these organizations set their goals,
deliver their programmes and measure their outcomes. The
chapters also consider the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals
(SGD) and discuss the capabilities that will be required to achieve
these goals.
The need for a new socio-
economic model
Economic growth over the last 100 years has provided increasingly
high standards of living for many parts of society, particularly
within the countries with advanced economies. During this
period, the damaging environmental consequences of this

Setting the Context
15
activity have been largely ignored, partly out of ignorance of
the extent of the problems being caused but also because greater
priority was given to serving the high-
level goals of economic
growth. We are all culpable. Governments, corporations and
each of us, individually, have largely ignored the problems. We
may have expressed concerns about environmental problems,
but invariably we have supported the activities that create strong
economies, profitable businesses and improve our quality of
life. However, we can no longer pretend that the benefits of a
modern, industrialized economy outweigh the environmental
costs and we are confronted by the grim reality that our current
economic model has to change.
The technology for the transition to a sustainable society
already exists, but there will be implications for all aspects of
our economy, including transport, buildings, cities, consumer
goods, agriculture and energy infrastructure. It will affect the
jobs that we do, the skills that we need and the way we distribute
wealth. It will also require changes in our values, attitudes and
behaviours. Moving to a sustainable society requires not just a
change in technology but changes in the things we value and
the way that we live our lives.
A key objective of this book is to identify how we, individually
and collectively, can support the transition to sustainable socio-
economic model, deliver the required change quickly and
achieve a just and prosperous society in the process.

16
2
Chapter summary
Chapter 2 assesses the impact of human activity on the climate and
the natural environment. It considers the challenge of growing
populations, finite resources and consumers’ expectations that
they will enjoy ever-
higher standards of living. The chapter
also looks at the phenomenon of natural feedback loops and
the interdependence between life on land and in the oceans,
and changing global temperatures. It considers how a changing
climate causes damage to the natural environment including
implications for insects, land degradation and marine life. The
final part of the chapter considers the need for international
coordinated action and the challenges facing intergovernmental
organizations, primarily the UN. It concludes with a summary
of the potential consequences if our global industrial society
continues along the current trajectory.
Introduction
It is self-
evident that many of the planet’s natural resources are
finite, yet we continue to consume resources at an unsustainable
rate. The global population is expanding rapidly and this is only
going to exacerbate the pressure on natural resources. Human
activity is affecting our climate, the natural environment and the
intricate ecological balance that supports life on earth. Populations
in countries with less advanced economies are already suffering
the consequences of climate change; crops fail, communities are

17
displaced and unemployment, poverty and hunger inevitably follow.
Those in the countries with advanced economies should not assume
that their greater wealth will insulate them from the consequences
of climate change. The consequences will affect every one of us.
It is important that individuals and communities understand what
is happening, why it is happening and what they can do about it.
Cause and effect
A number of different gases cause global warming of which the
primary cause is CO2
, but nitrous oxide and methane are also
significant. Human activity has resulted in a dramatic increase in
these gas emissions. Levels of CO2
are increasing, while at the same
time, human activity on the planet is reducing the ability of nature
to absorb CO2
; tropical forests are destroyed, terrestrial biosphere
is degraded and marine environments are being damaged (oceans
are a major absorber of CO2
). Figures 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 illustrate
the data trends of these key determinants of global temperatures.
The level of CO2
in the atmosphere is determined by two
factors: the rate at which CO2
is emitted and the rate at which
Figure 2.1: Key indicators correlated to climate change
(continued)

UNSUSTAINABLE
18
it is removed from the atmosphere. Over the last couple of
centuries, human activity has dramatically increased the rate of
emission and at the same time, human activity has damaged the
capacity of the natural environment to absorb CO2
. A significant
proportion of CO2
is absorbed by green vegetation on land,
particularly tropical rain forests, but other major absorbers of
CO2
include marine vegetation and other organisms (eg kelp
and phytoplankton in the oceans).
The Telegraph (18 August 2011)2
quoted a study by Dr Simon
Lewis at the University of Leeds that calculated that the world’s
forests absorb 8.8. billion tonnes of CO2
per year. The Amazon
accounts for approximately 25 per cent of this figure. One of the
problems of rain forest destruction is not only that the earth loses
the capacity to absorb CO2
but also it causes the release of CO2
as
the trees are burnt. Analysis by Global Forest Watch reports that:
• Loss of tropical forest accounts for 8 percent of the world’s
annual carbon dioxide emissions.
• If tropical deforestation were a country, it would be the
third-
biggest emitter globally, ranking just below the US and
significantly higher than the EU.
• Between 2015 and 2017, forest-
related emissions were 63 per
cent higher than the average for the previous 14 years, rising
from 3 billion to 4.9 billion metric tons per year. (Report
published by World Resources Institute: Gibbs, Harris and
Seymore, October 2018)
Figure 2.1: Key indicators correlated to climate change (continued)
Source: Steffen, W., W. Broadgate, L. Deutsch, O. Gaffney, C. Ludwig. 2015. ‘The
Trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration’, The Anthropocene Review.1

19
Destruction of forests not only reduces the capacity to absorb
CO2
but it is also destroying the habitat of animal and plant
species, causing a rapid increase in the rate of extinction. The
consequences of this mass extinction of species are impossible to
quantify. Not only are we losing species that have the potential to
benefit humanity but at a more fundamental level it is disrupting
the delicate balance of food chains, causing the collapse of
entire ecosystems.
Figure 2.2: CO2
emissions from tropical forest losses
EMISSIONS FROM 2015-2017;
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2001
WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
63% HIGHER than average
from prior 14 years
Gigatons
of
CO
2
GLOBAL
FOREST
WATCH
Note: Loss calculated at a 25% tree cover density
Source: World Resources Institute3
An article on the NASA Earth Observatory website states that
approximately 10 gigatons (one billion tonnes) of atmospheric
carbon is processed by phytoplankton per year.4
One of the
problems caused by increasing levels of CO2
is that greater
concentrations of CO2
increase the acidity of the oceans, which
in turn causes a decline in the levels of phytoplankton that are
sensitive to acidity levels. The destruction of phytoplankton
is exacerbated by their sensitivity to rising sea temperatures,
accelerating the feedback loop.
Rising temperatures cause permafrost to melt, which in
turn releases methane gas, which is many times more powerful
as a greenhouse gas than CO2
. This causes a further rise in

UNSUSTAINABLE
20
temperatures and melting of permafrost, increasing rates of release
of methane and so on. As temperatures rise, the ice caps melt and
this in turn reduces the ability of the planet to reflect heat from
the sun and so the feedback loop of global warming continues.
Although CO2
is the main factor driving climate change, there
are other significant contributors to global warming. Methane
is one of the other major factors and results partly from natural
sources such as melting permafrost, but it is also produced by
animal agriculture. Other factors include chemicals used in
fridges and air conditioning units, known as HFCs. These are
exceptionally powerful agents when released into the atmosphere,
and their effect on global warming can be hundreds of times
greater than CO2
, although the rate of decay will be quicker.
Figure 2.3: Combined heating influence of greenhouse gases
nitrous oxide
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
1980 1990 2000
Years
2010 2019
0
0.5
1.0
45% increase
Annual
Greenhouse
Gas
Index
(relative
to
1990)
Contribution
to
heating
imbalance
(W/m
2
)
CFC-12
CFC-11
other minor gases
carbon dioxie
methane
Source: Graph by NOAA Climate.gov, based on data from NOAA’s Earth System
Research Laboratories5
Understanding the science is important and unless voters are
informed on these issues, they cannot be expected to support the
actions of government that will be required if we are to prevent
runaway global warming. At the time of writing, there was only
limited public pressure for governments to take urgent action.
Where governments do intervene with actions (eg congestion
charges in cities or increases in fuel duty), there is the probability

21
that the public will resist such action. For example, in 2018, the
French government increased fuel duty to encourage consumers
to buy more fuel-
efficient vehicles, but by the end of the year,
we saw violent demonstrations across France by the movement
known as gilets jaunes (yellow vests).
By contrast, environmental policies are more likely to be accepted
when the reasons are understood. When the British government
introduced a charge on the use of plastic carrier bags, there appeared
to be broad public support. This apparent support was probably
because recent television programmes by Sir David Attenborough
had raised public concern over plastic pollution in our oceans.
Human activity is causing damage to most aspects of the natural
environment, but there are two issues that are worth highlighting
at this point: the decline of species and land degradation.
The decline of species
Climate change is causing shifting distribution, decline in animal
populations and alarming rates of species extinction. Insects are
the most diverse group of animals on the planet, and they are
particularly vulnerable to climate change. The consequences
of the decline of insects is virtually impossible to predict due
to the complex interdependency between, insects, plants and
animals. However, to give one simple example, the decline in bee
populations means that in some parts of the world, bees have to
be artificially reared to ensure pollination of agricultural crops.
The potential rates of extinction associated with different
levels of climate change have been set out in a report published
by R. Warren, J. Price, E. Graham, N. Forstenhaeusler,
J. VanDerWal et al (May 2018).6
The report was cited in an
article published on the website of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and projected that, at
different levels of global warming a given percentage of species
will decline by more than 50 per cent. Table 2.1 shows the
percentage of species that are likely to suffer more than 50 per
cent losses at different levels of global warming.
These findings show that there will be significant losses across
the plant and animal kingdom, with rises in global temperature
rising from 1.5°C to 3.2°C.

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22
It is worth noting that the reason why 3.2°C was selected as
the upper limit was that at the time of the research, the pledges
made under the Paris Agreement were estimated to result in a
3.2°C increase if the pledges were achieved. Table 2.1 shows
that at 3.2°C 49 per cent of insect species will suffer a decline
of more than 50 per cent.
Land degradation
The degradation of soil due to unsustainable farming practices
threatens the future of agricultural land. This process is happening
wherever farming uses heavy machinery and chemicals. In 2017,
the Secretary of State for Agriculture, Michael Gove, warned
that the UK was between 30 and 40 years away from eradication
of soil fertility:
If you have heavy machines churning the soil and
impacting it, if you drench it in chemicals that
improve yields but in the long term undercut the
future fertility of that soil, you can increase yields
year on year but ultimately you really are cutting the
ground away from beneath your own feet. Farmers
know that. (Speech by Michael Gove quoted in
The Guardian, 24 October 2017)7
This means that if we continue with current farming practices,
agriculture will no longer be capable of producing healthy, high-
yielding crops. This decline in world agricultural output will
Table 2.1: Projected decline of species at different scenarios for
climate change
% decline in species
°C increase Vertebrates Plants Insects
3.2°C 25 44 49
2.0°C 8 16 18
1.5°C 4 8 6
Source: American Association for the Advancement of Science. Report published by
R. Warren, J. Price, E. Graham, N. Forstenhaeusler, J. VanDerWal, et al (May 2018).

23
coincide with a projected global population of over 10 billion
by the end of this century. A report by The United Nations
Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) stated: Land
degradation threatens the livelihoods of billions of people around
the world. This is particularly the case for populations living
in rural areas where most of the poor people reside: estimates
report that 80% of the extreme poor live in rural areas and 65%
work in the agricultural sector.
The report goes on to identify the causes: ‘land degradation
continues to increase worldwide due to several factors, including
the expansion of crop and grazing lands into native vegetation,
unsustainable agricultural and forestry practices, climate change,
urban expansion, infrastructure development, and extractive
industry’ (UNCCD report published 2019: Land Degradation,
Poverty and Inequality).8
The challenge for the UN
Climate change presents an imminent threat to our survival
and we have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions dramatically,
to near zero before 2050. Radical social and economic change
is required. One thing is clear, the action of a few committed
nations will not be sufficient; an international response is required
and intervention by the various organizations of the UN will be
essential. However, the track record of the UN in persuading
countries to take action has, to date, been poor. For over 20 years,
the UN has hosted international conferences that have resulted
in various declarations and promises, but once away from the
conference tables the impetus for radical action seems to fade.
There are serious concerns that the UN does not have the level
of influence required to achieve the changes required. While the
UN is probably the right organization to take responsibility for
leading a coordinated response, it currently lacks the authority
to fulfil such a mandate.
The UN is undoubtedly concerned about climate change, but
it seems powerless to drive radical action. At a time when the
world is standing on the brink of catastrophe, the UN should
be exposing the causes of global warming, yet there is a sense
that the UN is wary of straying into politically sensitive areas or

UNSUSTAINABLE
24
engaging in activities that could conflict with the aims of the
major donors. The UN is heavily dependent upon the support
of the major international players such as the US, Russia, China
and the European nations. If support is withheld this will limit
the ability of the UN to carry out its work. For example, the
UN has an important role in monitoring global warming, but
it is dependent upon NASA to gather scientific data. Action by
the Trump administration to reduce funding to NASA’s earth
monitoring programme directly affected the ability of the UN
to monitor global warming. An article in Sciencemag.org in
May 2018 reported on the cancellation of NASA’s Carbon
Monitoring System (CMS):
The move jeopardizes plans to verify the national
emission cuts agreed to in the Paris climate
accords, says Kelly Sims Gallagher, director of Tufts
University’s Center for International Environment
and Resource Policy in Medford, Massachusetts.
‘If you cannot measure emissions reductions, you
cannot be confident that countries are adhering to
the agreement,’ she says.9
Another NASA programme that supports scientific research
into climate change is also under threat. An article in the
Scientific American comments on planned cuts by the Trump
administration in the proposed budget for the US government
2021 fiscal year.
The administration wants to eliminate funding for a
NASA program that is developing an observatory to
monitor Earth to better understand climate change.
NASA’s Climate Absolute Radiance and
Refractivity Observatory would produce ‘highly
accurate and trusted climate records’ that can help
produce policies on mitigation and adaptation ‘that
address the effects of climate change on society’,
NASA says. The observatory is scheduled to launch
in 2023.

25
The administration acknowledges the observatory
‘would provide additional capabilities over existing
satellites’ but says the project ‘is a lower priority
compared to other NASA programs’. The
administration’s budget boosts funding for missions
to land astronauts on the moon and Mars.10
The UN’s activities are constrained by its relationships with
international governments, particularly the major donors, and
these governments are, in turn, potentially subject to the power
of various interest groups. The consequence is that the UN
might not act as an independent organization and its activities
might risk being affected by the political manoeuvrings of the
major donors.
Other reasons for the apparent impotence of the UN
relate to the structures and lines of authority within the
organization. The UN has built an organization with specific
skills, competencies and ways of working that make it effective
at delivering projects against defined outcomes. The concern
is that these outcomes might be narrowly defined, such as
improvement of transport infrastructure or other economic
criteria, but there is a risk that a specific programme of work
may not be part of a holistic approach to delivering sustainable
development. In essence, the organizational structure and
decision-
making processes of the UN are effective at delivering
defined programmes of work but may lack the internal
processes to determine how individual programmes fit within
a complex, economic and social, system of systems. To address
such issues would almost certainly require the UN to engage
in wide ranging aspects of politics and social change within
the recipient countries rather than deliver defined programmes
of work. The UN undoubtedly does incredible work but its
current mandate, structures and capabilities do not position it
to drive radical international change.
There is distinct gap between what the UN seeks to achieve
and what it is empowered to achieve. A clear aspiration within
the UN is to promote the conditions for a just and stable world
and the vision statement by H.E. Mr Tijjani Muhammad-
Bande,

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26
President-
elect of the 74th Session of the United Nations
General Assembly sets out a number of priorities, including:
• Promotion of international cooperation for the consolidation
of universal peace and mutual respect among all nations and
elimination of discrimination in all its manifestations.
• Respect for international law and treaty obligations as well as the
seeking of settlement of international disputes by negotiation,
mediation, conciliation, arbitration and adjudication.
• Promotion of a just world economic order.
These are undoubtedly important aspirations and will be
pursued with genuine commitment. But do those within
the organization believe that the UN has the authority to
achieve these outcomes? Do the managers and staff at the UN
feel empowered to challenge the root causes that need to be
addressed in order to achieve peace, respect for international law
and a just world economic order? The UN may be committed
to alleviating the suffering that exists in many parts of the world,
but it is not designed to challenge the behaviour of governments
or major corporations that might be creating the problems it
seeks to rectify.
Limitations on the UN
Not only is the UN dependent on funding from its major
donors, particularly Western governments, but much of the
UN’s expenditure is channelled through major corporations
(eg infrastructure projects, such as energy, transport and other
capital investments in the emerging economies). When these
projects work well they improve the lives of people through
social and economic initiatives, but not all projects deliver the
intended benefits and there has been a chequered history with
examples of emerging countries taking on huge debts. This
in turn has resulted in the recipient countries being required
to adopt economic policies that have been imposed by the
intergovernmental organizations and donor countries.
One of the concerns with the UN is that its activities may
be more focused on implementing programmes to address

27
symptoms rather than address the causes. To take a simplistic
example: malnutrition in developing countries is frequently
a consequence of people not having work and therefore not
having money to buy food. A programme to support better
agricultural practice and increase yields may make farms more
productive, but it will not enable the unemployed to buy
food. Indeed, the changes that deliver increased productivity
might displace farm labourers causing greater unemployment
and poverty.
It is not surprising that the criteria for lending money
to emerging economies will, to some extent, be linked to
the national interests of the donor countries, however, it is
important that there is transparency with regard to the stated
aims of such projects, how they are being implemented and
who benefits. In particular, the UN needs the ability to design
programmes that address the root causes of conflict, poverty and
injustice, without undue influence from donor governments.
Historically, UN strategy has reflected the philosophy of many
of its donor nations that economic growth is good. Going
forward, it is essential that the UN focuses on programmes that
deliver sustainable development, not simply pursue an agenda of
economic growth.
The US is the biggest single donor to the UN and there was
a sense that the Trump administration did not regard funding
the activities of the UN as consistent with a policy of America
First. The election of President Joe Biden in January 2021 was a
pivotal moment, not just for American politics but also for the
future of the planet. It provides hope that the second biggest
emitter of greenhouse gases (after China) will move from a
position where the impending threat of global warming had
been largely dismissed, to an administration that will hopefully
base policy decisions on scientific evidence. Within the first
24 hours in office, Biden signed 15 executive orders reversing
key policies of the Trump administration, most notably, Biden’s
commitment to rejoin the Paris Agreement. The significance
of the Biden victory cannot be overestimated, not just for what
he will, hopefully, achieve but also for what he will prevent.
The political policies enacted during 2020–
2030 will determine
whether we are able to limit climate change to below 2°C

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28
or not. The social, economic and political changes that will
be required to reduce carbon emissions will demand a unity
of international will and level of cooperation rarely seen in
international politics. The ability of the US President to show
leadership and direction will be fundamental to achieving such
unity of purpose.
Climate change and UN agencies
There is an interesting interplay between the various agencies
of the UN. Some of them directly influence the economic
strategies of national economies, such as the World Bank and
IMF, while other agencies are on the front line, responding to
crises such as failed harvests, health pandemics and political
unrest, for example, the Food and Agricultural Organization,
World Health Organization and UN High Commissioner for
Refugees. There is a potential contradiction if UN agencies,
such as the World Bank, IMF or UN Development Programme,
are implementing policies to achieve economic growth,
potentially resulting in environmental problems, while other
UN agencies are coping with the consequences of drought,
migration and regional conflict. There is a particular problem
where the UN provides economic support to drive economic
growth by activities that destroy natural resources. Going
forward, UN support for economic development should be
contingent on effective measures to prevent damage to the
natural environment. Alternatively, if the UN is guided by a
philosophy that places economic growth as the priority, then
it may support programmes that result in higher emissions of
greenhouse gases and greater pressure on natural resources.
The activities of the UN should be evaluated against sustainable
objectives such as:
• Low carbon growth.
• Protection of natural resources.
• Protection of endangered species.
• Protection of oceans and rivers.

29
Sustainable development goals
One of the landmark achievements of the UN in recent years
has been to define the Millennium Development Goals (MDG)
and subsequently, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
The SDG have become a set of goals that governments can unite
behind, and the corporate world frequently incorporates them
within their own strategic goals.
A number of the SDG are directly related to achieving
clean growth:
Goal 6: Clean water and sanitation
Goal 7: Affordable and clean energy
Goal 11: Sustainable cities and communities
Goal 12: Responsible consumption and production
Goal 13: Climate action
Goal 14: Life below water
Goal 15: Life on land
These goals set clear and practical guidance for any government
or organization that seeks to incorporate sustainability within
their policies or strategy. The weakness of the SDG is that they
are aspirational, and the UN has little authority to demand
compliance. For example, Goal 6 relates to clean water and
sanitation. This high-
level goal is broken down into specific
examples of the actions required. For example:
Goal 6: Clean water and sanitation:
6.1 By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and
affordable drinking water for all.
6.3 By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution.
6.6 By 2020, protect and restore water-
related ecosystems,
including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers
and lakes.
Nobody could argue with the intention of the SDG, but there
is little explanation as to how such intentions are enforced.
The other concern with the SDG is that they do not explicitly
address the risk of irreversible global warming. Perhaps there is

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30
an opportunity for the UN to define an additional set of goals,
climate change goals, in order to focus attention on the issues being
addressed by the IPCC.
Such goals might include:
• Global warming: Limit temperature increase to a maximum
of 1.5°C.
• Energy sources: Stop generating energy from fossil fuels and
convert to renewable sources.
• Environmental economic costing: Account for environmental
damage in commercial accounting and reporting.
• Sustainable development: Economic activity to be undertaken
within the boundaries of sustainable resources.
• Financial systems: Financial and monetary systems to serve
the purpose of enabling sustainable economic activity.
• International economic cooperation: Support the social and
economic transition of nations dependent on fossil fuels.
• Migration: Protect those displaced from their homes, lands
and jobs as a result of climate change and its consequences.
• Just transition: Provide citizens and communities with social
and economic support to ensure that the process of transition
does not discriminate on grounds of race, ethnicity, religious
belief or economic status.
• Social equity: The process of transition to be based on
principles that seek equality of opportunity, access to
meaningful employment and protection from exploitation.
The above list is offered as an illustration of the type of issue
that might be included in any list of climate change goals. The
purpose of any such list should be to complement the SDG and
to focus attention on the causes and potential consequences of
climate change.
Are we destined to fail?
The history of human existence includes many sorry tales
of ignorance, greed and conflict. We cannot presume that
our survival is guaranteed, indeed, it would seem inevitable
that at some point our civilization will collapse. A book

31
by William Ophuls, Immoderate Greatness (2012) identifies
a number of characteristics associated with the collapse of
civilizations, including:
• A triggering cause: For example, the impact of climate change
causing drought, hunger, migration and conflict.
• Denial: A failure to acknowledge the facts until it is too late.
• Mismanaged and belated response: Failing to understand the
issues and adopting responses that are, too little, too late.
• Moral decay: Characterized by the decay in its values,
practice and institutions. This is particularly likely to occur
where societies are divided into a wealthy elite and an
underprivileged majority.
• Emergence of a demagogue promising greatness: When
society fails to address its problems, the emergence of a
demagogue promising simple solutions becomes more likely.
While there is little comfort to be gained by seeing these
characteristics unfolding today, it does, perhaps, help us to
recognize symptoms associated with different phases of social
and economic collapse. By recognizing the symptoms, we might
be able to take action and reverse an otherwise downward spiral.
Unfortunately, the current prognosis is not good. The
scientific evidence predicts that global temperatures will
continue to rise and that we are likely to breach the Paris
1.5°C target. The average global temperature is currently
close to a 1°C and we are already seeing the dramatic effects
on our climate including floods, droughts, record high
temperatures and ever-
greater destruction of our natural
environment. Events that were previously considered to be
once in 100 years are now occurring every few years. Many in
the countries with emerging economies have limited resources
to protect themselves against the economic consequences of
natural disasters, and there is an unfolding picture of human
suffering as crops fail, people face starvation, communities
migrate and different cultures come into conflict, potentially
leading to regional wars. These problems will not be limited
to isolated groups in some distant part of the world but will
have consequences that affect us all.

UNSUSTAINABLE
32
The direct impact of climate change on the wealthier nations
has, so far, been relatively localized and the majority of their
populations have been able to continue with life as normal,
although communities affected by hurricane Katrina, fires in
California and storm surges on the east coast of the US are still
suffering. Until recently, many within the advanced economies
appeared to be suffering from some form of environmental myopia
and had little awareness of the impending consequences of global
warming. However, there are signs that public awareness is growing
and public pressure for action on climate change is likely to grow.
The need for a new socio-
economic model
Our modern industrialized society depends on readily available
natural resources, but as these finite resources become scarcer,
our low-
cost, high-
consumption economic model will fail. The
industrialized countries will not be able to generate economic
wealth by converting cheap raw materials into consumer
goods, and governments will not be able to promise wealth and
prosperity. Unless the global economy finds alternative ways to
generate wealth and prosperity it will enter a terminal economic
decline. Even if we were not facing the threat of climate change,
the current socio-
economic model has to evolve, as it will
not survive the pressure of growing populations and declining
availability of cheap resources.
Our modern society is held together by shared values, attitudes
and beliefs. As the economic model of cheap consumer goods starts
to collapse, it will challenge our belief in a society that has been
based on the principle that continual economic growth is the basis
of happiness, freedom and democracy. Therefore, not only does
the transition to a sustainable society require a shift in social values,
attitudes and beliefs but also a collapse in values will trigger social
disruption. The continued cohesiveness of society requires a future
socio-
economic that is both sustainable and unifies social values.
A new age of unrest
In many countries, we see the signs of social unrest. Communities
that had previously enjoyed good incomes, comfortable standards

33
of living and job security are increasingly angry as the lifestyle of
an earlier age disappears. The causes may be many and varied,
but unsustainable economic growth, an increasing wealth
gap, decreasing resources and disruption caused by changes
in our climate are contributing factors, and their impact will
increasingly be felt over the coming decades.
As the current economic model falls apart, there is a risk
that there will be a fragmentation within society and a rise in
extremism. On the one hand, there will be those seeking to
protect their wealth and positions of power. On the other hand,
there will be those calling for a more sustainable society. There is
a risk that those in power may pursue policies of authoritarianism,
while those calling for climate action may engage in acts of protest
as their demands for change become ever more intense. Climate
change is one of the most politically polarizing issues in American
politics, as highlighted by an article in The Guardian (May 2019):
Climate change is now more politically polarizing
than any other issue in America,’ said Anthony
Leiserowitz, director of the Yale program on climate
change communication. ‘The issue has climbed and
climbed in importance for the Democratic base since
the 2016 presidential election to the point that it’s
now a top-
tier concern. We have never seen that in
American politics before.
And yet it’s dead last for conservative Republicans.
The issue has flatlined for them over the past five
years. In the US, your political party is the greatest
indicator to your view on climate change –more
than race, age or gender.11
As economies emerge from the COVID-
19 pandemic, it is likely
that politics will become polarized between those parties that
offer a return to the old normal and those offering a new normal.
On the one hand, there will be those that seek to return to the
social and economic world that existed before the pandemic, and
on the other hand, there will be those that see the disruption
caused by the pandemic as an opportunity to re-
evaluate our
social and economic priorities.

UNSUSTAINABLE
34
The tactical positioning of political parties with regard to
climate change will probably be determined by:
• Their perception of voter’s concerns: if it is of high concern
to the electorate, then political leaders will position themselves
to reflect concerns relating to climate change.
• Their ability to offer credible solutions: if a political party has
answers to the problem then it will proclaim its competence,
if they are devoid of credible proposals, they will seek to play
down potential problems that they are unable to address.
• Their dependence on groups with vested interests in the status
quo: if a political party is dependent on funding or other
support from groups that have an interest in protecting an
unsustainable economic model then it will seek to counter the
claims of parties proclaiming that climate change is a threat.
Research by Dr Rebecca Willis found that:
Politicians understand the need for action on climate
change, but it is not straightforward for them to make
the case for it. There are three main reasons for this.
First, climate change is seen as an ‘outsider’ issue,
i.e. not something discussed as part of the political
mainstream. This means MPs may be reluctant to
champion it.
Second, politicians feel under very little pressure to
act on climate change. They report limited interest
from their constituents, and indicate that they need
to find ways to make climate action relevant to the
daily lives and concerns of the electorate.
Third, there are practical, procedural and even
psychological difficulties in responding to climate
change, as large scale, long term challenges do not
fit well with the daily practice of politics.12
It is perfectly rational that communities that had once enjoyed
high standards of living should want to return to an age when
they enjoyed good incomes and cheap consumer goods. The
challenge for those seeking to promote a shift to a new economic

35
model is to convince a sceptical electorate that the old normal has
to be discarded and that any attempt to hold onto it will lead
to terrible consequences. This negative message will need to
be balanced with the positive message that an environmentally
sustainable society is not only essential but that it is capable of
meeting their aspirations for a better life.
The election of Trump has been attributed to frustration
in communities that have been epitomized by the rust belt
of America, where there is high unemployment and wide
disillusionment with the political elite. Their sense of anger is
aggravated by growing inequalities in wealth and a strong sense
that the political system serves a select group within society.
There is little to suggest that current levels of inequality will
be reversed under the present economic model. Indeed, the
growth in inequality seems likely to continue. Social unrest
seems inevitable and governments may increasingly use the police
and military to suppress protests and disruption. Meanwhile,
lurking in the background, political and religious extremism
will exploit divisions in society, creating fear and further
dividing communities. Extremist groups might use violence and
intimidation to pursue their own objectives and the moderate
majority might be intimidated into silence. The forces that
drive this unhappy projection for our future are illustrated in
Figure 2.4.
Figure 2.4 seeks to show the potential for a negative spiral
of events. As we stumble through the 21st century, we face
enormous threats from growing pressures on finite resources,
an economic system that is unsustainable and environmental
challenges that threaten life on the planet. While logic might
imply that change is urgently required, we need to recognize
that fear of the unknown, anger aimed at those responsible and
misinformation by those seeking to protect their interests, will
all conspire to increase the level of resistance to the changes that
are required.

UNSUSTAINABLE
36
Figure 2.4: Forces of disruption
Internal factors:
Failings in the political system
- Govt serves vested interests – not electorate
- Political representatives detached from
problems of society
External factors:
- War, conflict, unrest
- Natural disasters (drought, flooding)
- Mass migration, population displacement
- Disease, pandemics
Social unrest the decline of tolerance
- The rise of extremism; left, right, religious, ethnic
- Communities divided by race, class, religion
- Targeted groups blamed for problems
Rise of radical political doctrines
- Extremist political leaders
- Reactionary policies
Decline of democratic principles
- Original political processes overridden
- New political processes introduced
- Political process designed to suit the aims
of emerging political groups
Rise of extremism
- Xenophobia
- Military rule
- Religious fundamentalism
Source: Richard Joy

37
3
Implications of COVID-
19
Chapter summary
This chapter looks at the competence of governments to respond
to the COVID-
19 crisis and considers the lessons we need to
learn if we are to meet the challenge of climate change. It also
looks at how societies have responded to new social norms and
considers whether COVID-
19 will be the trigger for a transition
to a sustainable society.
The optimistic conclusion is that the COVID-
19 crisis will
result in a radical re-
evaluation of our social and economic
priorities, leading to changes that will enable an effective response
to global warming. The pessimistic conclusion is that we will learn
little and society will revert to business as usual with a desperate
race to restart the global economy and return to the old normal.
Did you have a good lockdown?
Anecdotal evidence suggests that many of those in the reasonably
well off middle classes have enjoyed the changes to their normal,
pressurized lifestyle. The stresses of commuting and long hours in
the office have been replaced by time at home and new ways of
working. Some people will even offer a guilty admission that they
have enjoyed lockdown. For others in society, it has highlighted
their vulnerability. Many of those in insecure, low-
paid jobs
have been tipped into poverty within a matter of weeks, their
problems exacerbated by poor housing and difficult conditions
within their communities.

UNSUSTAINABLE
38
The fact that COVID-
19 has had such different effects across
society is relevant to the discussion on the process of social
change because we need to understand how an event such as a
pandemic or global warming, is perceived by different groups.
Such events have a devastating impact on some groups, while
others remain serenely insulated from the consequences. We
also need to understand how governments respond in times of
crisis. Could the high death rates that we have seen in so many
countries been averted? What are the decision-
making processes
that guide government action? And, how does society respond
when radical change is required?
Warning signs
It was clear from the very beginning of 2020 that COVID-
19
presented a serious threat to world health. On 10 January 2020,
the World Health Organization (WHO) issued comprehensive
guidance on how to detect, test and manage potential cases of
COVID-19.1
The warning signs were flashing in big red letters,
yet many countries were slow to respond. If there is only one
lesson that we learn from COVID-
19, it is that immediate action
is required when a threat is growing exponentially.
On 23 January 2020 the city of Wuhan in China was put into
lockdown. At that point the number of COVID-
19 related
deaths in China was probably less than 50, although exact figures
are difficult to confirm.2
However, it is clear that the Chinese
government took drastic action to control the spread of the
virus; residents were confined to their homes, and the city was
sealed off from the rest of China. Within the city itself, deaths
continued to rise and by mid-
January 2020, the number of deaths
was doubling every four to seven days. However, in spite of the
news reports coming out of China, many Western countries were
slow to recognize the potential threat. Where countries were
slow to take action it resulted in high death rates and prolonged
the time necessary to control the spread of infection. An article
in The Guardian (11 March 2020) reported on a study into
the speed of transmission of COVID-
19. The article offered a
summary of findings, including: ‘If testing, isolation and travel
bans were brought in one, two or three weeks later than they

Implications of COVID-19
39
were, the number of cases could have rocketed three, seven and
18-fold respectively.’3
Another study by Columbia University found that if control
measures had been introduced two weeks earlier, deaths in the
US could have been reduced by over 80 per cent.4
The challenge facing governments across the world is that
radical action is the only way to stop the spread of the disease,
yet such action inevitably has a devastating impact on economic
activity. This dilemma appears to have resulted in many
governments hesitating to take action, preferring to keep the
economy going and hoping that the impact of the disease could
be mitigated in some way. The decision to delay taking prompt
action is particularly concerning because the evidence from
China had already shown that decisive action was both essential
and effective. Ultimately, most governments recognized that
lockdown was inevitable and that the economic consequences
were unavoidable. However, concerns about disrupting the
economy resulted in many countries suffering tragically high
death rates before imposing the actions necessary to control the
spread of the virus.
The decision to protect the economy rather than implement
disruptive changes offers a direct analogy to the decisions
being faced in addressing climate change. We know that global
temperatures are rising and we know that we have to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, yet we continue to pursue a policy
of economic growth that drives up global temperatures. The
political reasoning is the same in both cases: we don’t want to
disrupt the economy. When economists review the impact of the
pandemic it will be interesting to see whether those countries that
reacted promptly suffered greater or lesser long-
term economic
consequences than those countries that attempted to keep their
economies going. It might be the case that those countries that
responded early suffered lower long-
term economic costs than
those that responded late.
The same determination to protect economic growth is
delaying our response to climate change, but we are deluding
ourselves if we believe that we can continue as normal. The
longer we delay, the greater the problem becomes, the higher
the economic costs and the more difficult it will be to resolve.

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maga küzdött valamennyi ellen; balkezébe fogta a sast, jobbjával
villámsebesen oszta csapást és döfést mindenfelé; egyik sebét a
másik után kapta; arcza, homloka vérzett, meg nem mozdult
helyéből; végre egy nyilvessző állt meg szíve fölött, a bajnok
féltérdre rogyott, a sisak leesett fejéről, kezével a babérágat ajkaihoz
szorítá, s egy jajkiáltás, egy sóhaj nélkül meghalt.
Ekkor jött elő Aurelián a triariusokkal.
A mogorva hidegség, mely a veteránok arczán honolt, most némi
megtorló boszú vonásaival elegyült; fenyegető tekintettel közeledtek
a győztesen előre nyomuló palmyraiak felé, s az első dárdasuhintás
kényszeríté azokat az elfoglalt tért nekik átengedni.
Zenobia szemközt állt Aureliánnal. Mintegy új erőt gyűjtve
megpihenni látszék leghatalmasabb ellenéveli végküzdelemre. Keble
hevesen dobogott a harcz küzdelmeitől, kardjáról a vér csepegett
alá. Kigyulladt arczát, villogó szemeit közelről láthatta az imperator,
hogy megitélhesse róla, miként méltó ellenére talált; hajfürtei
kibomolva a sisak alól, szabadon lebegtek délczeg vállai körül. A
harcztárogató rivallása, a haldoklók nyögése s a küzdők tombolása
közül kihallatszott dörögve csengő hangja, a mint harczosait új
viadalra buzdítá; a veteránok minden oldalról látták ellenök gyűlni e
vérlepte alakokat, miknek arczán a fanatismus lángja vonaglott.
E pillanatban idegrendítő ordítás hangzott a palmyraiak háta
mögött, mely kényszeríté őket megdöbbenve hátratekinteni.
A jobbszárnyon levő numid lovasság, a nehéz arab seregeket a
mocsáros lapályokba csalva, itt egyszerre keresztül tört azoknak
szétosztott sorain, s míg azok messze hátra maradtak mögötte, a
tartalékul maradt syriai gyalogságra veté magát.
Ez az első nyillövés után a futásban kereste menedékét, s a
kétszáz elefánt a bálványképekkel magára maradt a támadók előtt.
Az elefántok harczordítása volt az, mely a csatazaj közepéből
kihallatszott, midőn a győzelem már félig a Zenobia kezei közt volt.

A palmyrai harczosok szivét egyszerre vad ijedtség állta el, midőn
isteneik bálványait az ellenség által megtámadva látták. Egyszerre
felbomlott a csatarend, visszafordult mindenki, s eszeveszett
tömkelegben rohantak a bálványok védelmére, átengedve a vérrel
kivívott csatatért a már félig leküzdött ellennek.
A papok ezalatt kétségbeesett küzdelmet kezdtek a numid
lovasokkal, melybe az elefántok is belekeveredtek, a nap elefántja
fölemelt ormánynyal rohant a lovasok közé, s felkapva egy decuriót
nyakánál fogva, azzal mintegy buzogánynyal vágott a tömegek közé,
útat törve iszonyú lábai gázolásával a legsűrűbb tömegek közt s
hajigálva fel maga körül jobbra-balra az embereket, s a visszaesőket
iszonyú agyaraival fogva fel.
Semmi sem volt képes a palmyraiakat rendbeszedni többé.
Mindenki csak a veszélyben forgó bálványt látta, s annak
megmentésére sietett a csatatérre. Maga Zabdas is elragadtatott
visszatérő lovasai által, s iparkodott a zavargó csatazajban a
királynét föltalálni.
Az még most is szemközt állt az ellenséggel s bátorítá, a kik
körüle álltak és küzdött a római veteránokkal.
Zabdasnak erővel kellett megragadni a királyné paripájának fékét,
hogy elvihesse őt a csatatérről.
A numid lovasok azalatt körülfogattak a visszarohanó tömegektől
s leapríttattak az utolsó emberig, de a palmyrai sereg is szét volt
verve. A bálvány megmenekült; hanem a csata elveszett.
– Minden veszve van! kiálta Zabdas, magával vonva a királyné
paripáját, mely ágaskodott, nyerített, kapálózott, nem akarva távozni
a csatatérről.
– Nincs minden elveszve, viszonza a királyné, még áll Palmyra!
Azonban sietnie kell üldözői elől; a római lovasság ismét
összeszedte magát, egyedül azon csoportot látszott üldözni, mely
Zenobiát követé. Kisérői egyenként hullottak el védelmében.
Á

– Állj meg királyné és add meg magad! kiálta utána egy erőteljes
hang az üldözők közül, s a mint Zenobia hátra tekinte, meglátta,
hogy ez Aurelián.
Egyszerre meglassítá lova futását, leakasztá tegzét nyakából, egy
nyilat fektetett az idegre s visszafelé fordulva lován, megvoná
csendesen a kézíjat s perczig czélozott. Az ideg pendült. A királyné
lova nyargalt, az üldözők messze elmaradtak. A nyil Aurelián vállát
furta keresztül.
XV.
– Még nincs veszve minden, még áll Palmyra! Hangzék Zenobia
szava a vesztett csata után.
Föl a falakra, zárjátok be a kapukat, fegyverre a ki férfi!
Nyissátok meg a templomokat, a vének, a világtalanok, a
nyomorékok menjenek imádkozni, a többi harczoljon! Rakjatok
tüzeket a téreken, a nők forraljanak ólmot és olajat, a gyermekek
faragjanak nyilat, hozzátok föl a kriptából a halottakat, tegyétek ki az
utczára, ők se pihenjenek! Mérget a nyilakra és mérget a szívbe!
Férfivá legyen a gyermek és a férfi félistenné, villám legyen a kard!
Minden úgy lőn.
Zenobia legkisebbik fia, Vaballath, már ekkor harczos ifju volt, ő
járt utczáról-utczára, falakról-falakra a népet buzdítani. Ő volt
vezére, költője, lelke a népnek.
Az első napon, hogy Aurelián Palmyra alatt megjelent, követet
küldött Zenobiához, felszólítva őt a meghódolásra s azon esetben
biztosítva életét, trónját és birtokait.
Zenobia körülhordozá a követet a város falain, megmutogatta
neki a felállított hajító és kopjalövő gépeket, levezette a piaczokra,
hol a népség fegyvergyakorlatot tartott, megmutogatta neki a

roppant földalatti raktárakat, telve kifogyhatlan élelmi szerekkel, a
gazdag forrásokat, a városba foglalt gyümölcstermő pálmaerdőket, a
szapora nyájakat, mik a hozzájárulhatlan mezőkön legeltek.
– Mondd meg uradnak, a mit láttál. E falakon belől gazdag a föld,
kívül rajtok koldus és sivatag. Velünk harczol az Isten, a föld és az
idő.
A követ visszatért Aureliánhoz a daczoló válaszszal A város falain
hallatszott az ezer meg ezer ajk által énekelt harczi kardal:
«Föl csatára Palmyra!
Föl csatára a halálig!
Róma nem lesz úr a földön,
Rabfaj nem fog lakni benned,
Vagy velünk élj, vagy velünk vessz,
Vagy hazánk légy, vagy sirunk!»
Aurelián ostromra készült. Levele, melyet a római tanácshoz irt,
eléggé bizonyítja aggodalmait az ostrom kimenetele iránt.
«A római nép, így szól a levél, megvetéssel beszél a harczról,
melyet egy nő ellen viselek. Azonban nem ismeri Zenobia jellemét és
hatalmát. Lehetetlen fölszámlálni harczkészleteit kövek, nyilak s
mindennemű hajító fegyverekben. Minden bástyaoldal két-három
balistával van ellátva s harczi gépei mesterséges tüzet szórnak. A
bünhödés előli félelem a kétségbeesés bátorságával fegyverzé őt föl.
Hanem én bizom Róma védisteneiben, kik ez ideig minden
vállalatomban megsegítének.»
Rövid időn alkalma lőn Aureliánnak megtudni, ha Róma
védisteneinek hatalma elterjed-e odáig!
Egy reggelen az általános trombitaharsogás a falakra idézte a
palmyrai népet. A legiók ostromra keltek, védelemre a palmyrai nép.
Mintha kalászos vetés támadt volna a bástyákon, köröskörül
fénylettek a dárdák s a tornyok párkányain megjelentek a csodálatos

gépek, fogas kerekeikkel, aczélrugóikkal. Minden emeltebb hely
tetején lobogott a harczi zászló.
A legiók megosztott csapatokban közeledtek lassankint a bástyák
felé, mint egy-egy változatlan alakú folt; midőn néhány száz lépésnyi
közelbe értek, a falakon álló erőművek kerekei mozgásba kezdtek
jőni, mindig lassabban birták azokat hajtani a melléjük állított izmos
balistariusok, a gépek hátra facsart karjai lassudan hajlottak alább,
alább; egyszerre félreugrottak mellőlük a gépészek, az elszabadult
kerék búgva gördült vissza, s a fölpattanó érczgerenda három
mázsás köveket hajított a messziről közelgő csoportok fejére.
Azok hulló nyilzápor s lecsapó kövek között jöttek előre, sem
lassabban, sem sebesebben, mint azelőtt. Egyszerre támadtak
minden oldalról a városra, a vízzel tölt árok nádkévékkel lőn
betemetve, melyen keresztül paizsokból egyetlen vastetőt képezve
rohantak előre az ostromlók s míg egyfelől hosszú hágcsókat
támasztottak a falaknak, másutt a tekenős testudokat gördíték a
kapukhoz közel, miknek oltalma alatt földalatti aknákat kezdtek ásni
a bástyák alá, s mindezek között lehete látni a lassan mozduló
ostromtornyokat, miket alárakott faderekakon száz férfi hengerített
előre. Fenn a toronyban, mely oly magas volt, mint a bástya, a
legmerészebb harczosok álltak, eltakarva egy felvont hid által, s alól
kilátszottak a faltörő kosok fejei.
A hajítógépek kövei e mozgó tornyokra voltak leginkább
irányozva. Némelyiket megtalálta a sujtó gránitdarab s az
széthasadozva dűlt fel a bennlevőkkel együtt, másikat meggyujtá a
repülő szurok-koszorú, az olthatatlan görögtűz, s az ott égett el a
seregek láttára. Végtére egy közel jutott a falakhoz, vaslemezzel
fedett oldalairól visszahullott a hajító dárda s a kénköves kanócz
szorosan oda férkőzék a sánczok mellé, s akkor egyszerre
csörömpölve zuhant le a felvonó hid a bástya ormaiba kapaszkodva
vasfogóival. A legelső tíz-húsz férfi, ki e hidra felugrott, egy percz
alatt halva esett le az árokba, keresztül-kasul lőve a mindenünnen
oda irányzott nyilaktól, s az utánuk jövők egy pillanatra
megdöbbenve álltak meg a keresztülláthatatlan nyilzápor előtt.

– Előre rómaiak! kiálta ekkor a tribun, elkapva a vexillifer kezéből
a római sast, s áthajítva azt az ellenség közepébe. Elvakult dühvel
rohantak erre a rómaiak a hidon keresztül, zászlójukat
visszavivandók. Paizsát szeme elé tartá a katona, hogy ne lássa a
halált; s míg tíz alá hullt a hidról, egy végre a sánczig jutott, s míg az
oroszláni vitézséggel küzdött, másik tíz jött utána és ismét tíz, és
végre száz, a torony egy fedett lépcsőt képzett, melyen keresztül
folyvást újabb vitézek nyomultak előre, kényszerítve haladni az
előttük levőket. A rómaiak már tért foglaltak a bástyán, mindig
többet többet, már a vexillum vissza volt víva, s a csapatok előtt
magasra emelve, már a palmyrai hadsorokban megbomlott a
csatarend, midőn egyszerre sebes futással látszék a rómaiak felé
rohanni egy palmyrai ifju, paizsát szemei elé tartá, kezében fegyver
helyett egy szikrázó csóva.
Ez Vaballath.
– Félre előlem rómaiak! ordíta vakmerően az ifju az ostromlókhoz
érve, s megcsóválván maga körül a szikrát okádó kanóczot, az pokoli
körfényt alakíta körüle, melynek olthatlan sziporkái megolvaszták az
érczet, s keresztülégtek a csontig.
A rómaiak néhány perczig megriadva e vakmerő támadó elől, ki
nem emberi fegyverrel látszott ellenök harczolni, útat nyitottak neki,
eltakarva arczaikat a gyilkoló szikrák elől, s e nehány percz elég volt
Vaballathnak arra, hogy a bástyafalra ugorva, valamennyi harczoló
fején keresztül biztos kézzel a torony közepébe hajítsa a romboló
görögtűzkanóczot, s akkor kirántva kardját, fölkiálthasson: «ide
mellém palmyraiak!»
A toronyba esett kanócz minden szikrája gyujtott, hasztalan
oltották vízzel, tapodták el sarkaikkal, takarták be vérteikkel; vizen
és vason keresztülégett az, néhány pillanat alatt tűzlángban állt a
torony, a bástyán rekedt kis csapatnak senki sem mehetett
segélyére, távolból nézhették az ostromlók, mint olvad lassankint
összébb-összébb, míg végre csak a sashordozó marad fenn, s midőn

egyedül látja magát, a sassal együtt aláveti magát a mély árok
hegyes pallisádjaira, kisérve a palmyraiak düh- és diadal-ordításaitól.
A város tulsó oldalán ezalatt sikerült az ostromlóknak az árkot
betemetniök, a kévékből rakott gát mindig magasabbra nőtt, s az
összekötött paizsok mindig közelebb látszottak emelkedni, daczolva
tűzzel és kövekkel, miket a falakról leszórtak, s mik ártalom nélkül
gurultak alá az óriási tekenőn, melynek minden pikkelyét egy férfi
kar által szorosan a másikhoz kapcsolt paizs képezte, s melyet sehol
sem lehetett megbontani. Egy izmos férfi már harmadszor hajít
egész gránithasábokat a megtörhetlen érczlapra, a harmadik kisérlet
után bőszült dühvel ugrik le maga a vastetőzetre, s lábaival az
ostromlók feje fölött tapodva, rettentő csapásokat oszt az alatta
levők fejeire; egy-két paizs betörik vaspőrölye zuhanásaitól, s az
ember maga elbukik a betört paizsok alatt, mint a ki beszakadó
jégtábla alá tünt el, de önfeláldozása megbontá az ércz pikkelyzetét,
s a falakról égő nyilak özöne repült az ott támadt résre. A
fölhalmozott nádkötegek egy pillanat alatt meggyulladtak az
ostromlók lábai alatt, s egy óriási rézcsoda kinyuló torkán keresztül a
legmagasabb toronyból égő naphtát s olvadt szurkot okádott a tűz
közé. A paizsok zavarodtan bomlanak szét, a föld maga ég a
szétzavart sorok alatt, mindenki fut! s azon pillanatban, midőn
fedetlenül maradnak az ostromlók, összebomolva, mint leforrázott
hangyaboly, s visszahemzsegve a lángbaborult lejtőről, rettentő
ropogás tölti el a léget, ezer meg ezer röppentyű lövell szét a
toronyból, millió kék, zöld és veres csillagot rugva szét magából,
miknek sziporkái pokoli tűzesővel hullanak a megrémült tömegek
fejére.
A legiók hátrálnak mindenütt, ember fölötti erő küzd ellenök; de
nem fordítnak hátat, arczot mutatva távoznak lépésről-lépésre;
merész tekintettel fordulva a süvöltő tűzzápor elé, mely ijesztő
ropogással tölti el az éjet.
Erre megnyilnak a kapuk, s vad ordítással rohan a hátráló
tömegekre mindenünnen a palmyrai lovasság, a csörömpölő kaszás-
szekerek; a legiók szembe állnak az üldözőkkel, a vad csatalárma,

fegyverzörej és tűzropogás között hallatszik a tibicenek meg nem
szakadó harczi zenéje, s a palmyrai falakról áttörnek néha a
felharsogó ének szavai: «Róma nem lesz úr e földön!» Az éjszakai
égés fehérjében úgy állanak e visszavonulásukban is szabályos
dandárok körülrajongva ama dühöngő csapatoktól, mintha egy kitörő
vulkán tüze alatt küzdenének mesés őskori herosok, alvilági
dæmonok rajával.
Amott egy nyugodt, félelmet nem ismerő férfi, mindenütt
bátorítva; itt egy fehér asszony, vadul víva a hátráló csapatokkal.
Amaz Aurelián, ez Zenobia.
A palmyraiak egész sánczaikig üldözték vissza ostromlóikat.
Aurelián átlátta, hogy ostrommal be nem veheti a várost, és
mégis felfogadta, hogy el kell azt foglalni. S a mit egy római
komolyan akart, az soha sem volt lehetetlen.
XVI.
Nap nap után mult, a nélkül, hogy Palmyra falai gyengültek
volna; a nép kijárt a falakra, a rómaiakat gúnyoló fölhivásokkal
boszantani, mindenki el volt bizva.
Zenobia legtitkosabb szobájába vonult félre Vaballathtal, s
széttekintve, ha nem hallja-e meg szavait valaki? így szóla hozzá
reszkető hangon.
– Vesztünk közelget. Ellenünk a sors. Szövetségeseink egyenkint
meghódoltak Róma előtt, legbuzgóbb párthívünk, Tirmusz,
Egyptommal együtt elveszett, s Sapor király, midőn épen
segítségünkre készült, meghalt, s halálával birodalma is szétomlott.
Semmi reményünk a megszabadulhatáshoz. Isteneink is elhagytak, a
szél nem oly dühös, a nap nem oly forró, a föld nem oly kopár, mint
egyébkor. Ellenségeink kutakat ástak a puszta közepében s minden
világrészből szállítják számukra az eleséget. Az egyptomi legiók

vezére Probus már útban van Aureliánhoz csatlakozandó; ha őt is
bevárjuk, össze kell roskadnunk a támadás alatt. Még egy
kétségbeesett merény van számunkra hátra. Ugyanaz, mely husz év
előtt megmenté Palmyrát: a hegyek közt lakó nomád népeket
föllázítani, s egyetlen rohammal elsöpörni az ellenséget falaink alól.
E végre egyikünknek a környező ellenségen keresztül ki kell jutni a
városból, s a másiknak védni azt azalatt, míg a segély megérkezik.
– Eredj te, anyám.
– Jó, határoznunk kell gyorsan és tenni rögtön. Az éjjel rohamot
kell intézni minden kapuról s e zajban könnyű lesz kimenekülnöm.
De visszatérek!
– Anyám, szól Vaballath, vidd magaddal kis leányaidat is.
– Miért vigyem el őket innen?
– Ha vissza nem találsz térni, ha minket meg nem szabadíthatsz,
gondolod-e, hogy Palmyra megadja magát máskép, mint romba
dűlve? vidd magaddal a gyermekeket.
– Te el vagy szánva.
– Mindenre. Ha meghaltak, a kik a falakat védték, haljanak meg
a falak is, veszszen el Tadmor neve is, ha népe elveszett! bennünket
ne lásson senki rabszolgának. A dicső Palmyra történetét ne
folytassa egy nyomorult, megalázott Palmyra!
– Véremből nőttél, szólt Zenobia, megszorítva kezét, s még az
alkonyat leszálltával harczra rendezé a csapatokat, a királyné két
leggyorsabb futó dromedárját hozatá elő, a puszták hajóit, mik
pihenés nélkül futnak meg tiz mértföldnyi útat.
Alig csöndesült el az éj, midőn egyszerre megnyiltak Palmyra
kapui mind, s a syriai seregek kirohantak minden oldalról a várost
környező római hadakra. Azok egy pillanat alatt talpon állottak s úgy
várták be a rohamot. Hozzá szoktak már a keletiek harczolás
módjához, éji rohamaikhoz, támadásuk zajához, elefántjaikhoz és

görögtüzeikhez; de Zenobia még egy új nemét találta fel számukra a
harcznak. Összefogatott kétszáz vad bikát a palmyrai legelőkről, a
legszilajabbakat, minők emberarczot tűrni nem szoktak, azoknak
szarvaik közé szurokba mártott venyige nyalábokat kötöztetett s
ezeket meggyujtatva, egyszerre kibocsátá valamennyit a rómaiakra.
Ezek hallák a rémséges üvöltést, láták az égő tüzeket sebes
rohammal közeledni magok felé, miket a bőszült állatok szilajon
ráztak alá s föl kínokban, s el nem tudták képzelni, minő ellenséggel
leend dolguk. Bátran megálltak előtte, s midőn a szarvaikon hordott
tűznél megismerték a bikákat, már akkor késő volt a csatarendet
megváltoztatniok. Szétszórt sorokban kellett volna azokat elfogadni,
mert az oktalan ellenség nem törődött az összetömött harczrenddel,
hanem a dárdák közepébe rohant s a fájdalomtól elvakulva keresztül
törte az érczhadsorokat, égő homlokával föltaszítva az előtte állót. A
megtámadt dandár erre zavarba jött, nem csata volt az többé,
hanem bősz viadal dühös vadállatok ellen alkalmatlan fegyverekkel;
a legiók szétbomolva hátráltak sánczaik mögé s onnan lődözték le
nyilaikkal e bőszült vadakat, mik vad bömböléssel nyargaltak alá s föl
a mezőn, a földet túrva égő szarvaikkal.
E látmány alatt senki sem vevé észre, hogy két dromedár
sebesen vágtat el a rómaiak sánczai között.
Az utolsó római őrszem észrevette a futókat, s a könnyű lovasság
egy cohorsza rögtön utánok indult, hogy őket elfogja. A királyné
meghallá az üldözők robaját s pihenés nélkül vágtatott a pusztán
keresztül. Az egyik tevét, melyen két kis leánya ült, maga előtt hajtá.
A két gyermek egymást átkarolva ült a nyeregben, Zenobia
meghagyá nekik, hogy hátra ne nézzenek.
A reggel első sugárai a puszta közepén találták a királynét.
Üldözői még mindig nyomában voltak; a láthatár tulsó szélén már
látszott valami hosszú ezüst vonal csillamlása, az volt az Euphrat
folyam, melynek partjain már a szabad nomád népek ménesei
legeltek; ha azokat elérheté, többé nem kellett futnia az ellenség
elől.

A dromedárok előre nyujtott nyakkal röpülni látszottak a
homokpuszta fölött, egyszerre azonban az első, melyen a két
gyermek ült, megbotlott a kavicstömegekben, még azután kétszeres
erővel nyargalt egy darabig, úgy hogy társa alig birta utolérni, akkor
futása el kezdett lassudni, szügye reszketett, s egyszerre megállt és
hátramaradt. Zenobia ijedten ragadta meg a teve kantárát s erővel
vonta azt maga után, az mindig lassabban haladt s gátolta társának
futását, végre két térdére rogyott, s onnan egész testével a földre. A
másik teve lehajlott hozzá, s megfogta nyakán levő kantárát fogaival,
hogy föl segítse emelkedni. Az ismét visszarogyott, lábai nem birták
többé.
– Kapaszkodjatok fel hozzám! kiálta Zenobia leányainak s maga
mellé ültetve őket, egy ijedt pillanatot vetett közelgő üldözőire, s
vágtatott tovább.
Az elhagyott teve fájdalmasan bőgve vergődött ott a homokban,
föl-fölemelt fejével az eltávozottak után fordulva, mintha nem az
fájna neki, hogy meghal, hanem az, hogy elhagyatik.
Az üldözők és a királyné közötti tér azonban mindinkább fogyni
kezde. A dromedár futása lassúbb kezde lenni a hármas teher alatt,
már a római lovasok nyilai fütyültek a futók körül. Nem volt
menekülés többé.
– Vess el minket, anyám; szólt az egyik gyermek, s menekülj meg
magad.
Zenobia könyezve csókolá meg a gyermeket s szorosabban ölelé
magához.
Ha a dicsvágy nagyobb lett volna szivében, mint az anyai
szeretet, megszabadulhatott volna.
Hogy hajítná el az anya gyermekeit, még ha koronáját mentené
is meg általuk.
Még egy félórai futás s kelet királynéja a reménylett partokhoz
oly közel, ellenségei kezébe jutott.

Az elfogott királyné nemsokára Aurelián előtt állott, legyőzve,
megalázva.
– Miért támadtál fel Róma ellen? kérdé a büszke győztes.
– Nem hajthatám meg fejem egy Gallienus, egy Aureolus előtt,
felelt Zenobia, még fogságában is királyné. Téged egyedül ismerlek
el legyőzőmnek.
A hirnök trombita-hangja a várfalakra idézte a palmyraiakat.
– Mit kivánsz? kérdé Vallabath a kapu tornyában állva.
– Meghódolást Rómának.
– Sokszor kérted azt, a választ sokszor elvivéd.
– Most nem kérem ingyen, hanem cserébe királynétok életeért;
ezt mondva, egy arany bilincsekkel lelánczolt nőt s két gyermeket
mutatott föl a hirnök.
E látvány a palmyrai nép szivéből a lelket lopta ki, Vaballath
halálra sápadva fordult társaihoz vissza, s csüggedten ment le a
piaczra.
– Minden el van veszve, még a dicső halál reménye is, szólt
leverten az egybegyűltekhez. Kapunk kulcsa van az ellenség
kezében, anyám élete. De ne essetek kétségbe soha. Nyissátok meg
a kapukat az ellenség előtt, de zárjátok be sziveiteket. Ássátok el a
kardot, de ne ássátok el a gyűlöletet. Nem utolsó napja ez még a
világnak. Bocsássátok be az ellenséget, én esküszöm, hogy nem fog
az megvénülni itten; legalább ha összeomlanak e falak, nem egyedül
minket temetnek el.

A palmyrai nép városa kulcsaival vásárolt kegyelmet
királynéjának.
Aurelián megbocsátott neki.
De alig távozott el Palmyra alól, midőn a nép föllázadt az ott
maradt dandárok ellen, s azokat az utolsó emberig kiirtá és újra be
lőnek zárva a kapuk, kitűzve az ormokra a harczi lobogók.
A császár rögtön visszafordult, s napok mulva, a kik keletre
néztek, midőn alkonyodott a nap, úgy tetszett nekik, mintha
egyszerre két helyen volna az esthajnal: nyugoton is vörös volt az
ég, keleten is.
XVII.
Mig Palmyra falai közé haldokolni járt a szellő, Róma utczáin
végig vonult a triumphus.
Elől a cserággal koszorúzott legiók, a tibicinek zenéje, a
fehérruhás augurok, a virágfüzéres áldozat-bikákkal. Utánuk jöttek a
gladiatorok, a circusok áldozatai, az elfoglalt tartományok szelidített
vadai; husz elefánt, négy királytigris, gyönyörű tevepárduczok,
hosszú vékony nyakaikkal minden lépésnél köszöntve a háztetőkről
ujjongató népet; óriási struczczok, miken æthiop fiuk nyargaltak,
egész szekerek megrakva halomra döntött fegyverekkel, kincsekkel,
drágakövekkel, mások elfoglalt országok koronáival, vagy elgázolt
népek zászlóival tetézve. A kerek világ minden birodalmának követei,
pompától ragyogó nemzeti öltözeteikben, Aurelián fegyverhordozói,
kik otthon a maguk országában mindegyik egy-egy hatalmas király.
A fogoly vezérek és hősök hosszú sorozata, köztük tizenkét amazon,
hófehér paripán, kik a csatában fogattak el, s végre, kiken az egész
nép szeme függött, a gallusok császárja, Tetricus, ki saját népét
elárulá, és Zenobia, kelet királynéja.

Legpompásabb ruhájában öltözve, fején gyémánt koronával ment
a diadalszekér előtt kelet királynéja. Léptei ingadoztak a drágakövek
terhe, vagy tán a gyalázat súlya alatt; hófehér nyakát arany békó
övezte körül, melynek hosszú lánczát egy rabszolga tartá kezében.
Nyomában a diadalmas imperator jött, kezében pálmaággal,
gyöngyökkel rakott kocsiját négy szelid szarvas vonta. Mellette
kétfelől két költő verte lantját, az egyik dicsérő panegyricont, a
másik gyalázó epigrammokat zengedezve a győztes nevére.
Csak egy mosolygása a sorsnak! és az a nő, ki most gyalog megy
a diadalszekér előtt, könyeivel jelölve az útat, ugyanazon
diadalszekéren ülve jött volna be Rómába.
És e pillanatban csak egy gondolatja volt e megbukott nagy
szellemnek. Nem az elmult nagyság, nem a meggyalázás keserve,
nem a boszú, nem a félelem.
Egyetlen gondolatja az volt: miért, hogy fiát Vaballathot nem
lánczolták mellé? Hol maradhatott ő?
Hajh! az már ekkor megölt rómaiak holttestéből vetett magának
ágyat s templomok romjaiból készített temetőt!
Aurelián a diadalmenet végeztével egy gazdag uradalmat
ajándékozott Zenobiának. Leányait később római senatorok vették
el. Kelet királynéjának utódai sokáig éltek még Olaszországban s
emlékeztek az elmult dicső napokra.
XVIII.
Ha most a vándor hat napig utazott az arab sivatagban, a
hetediken pompás palotákat lát maga előtt megjelenni, miknek

homlokai az égbe emelkednek; a ragyogó dómok, az óriás kúptetők
egymás háta mögül tekintenek elő, minden szinű paloták: kék,
lilaszin, opál-fehér anyagból tornyosulnak az ég felé, roppant
magasságú falak, viruló kertekkel mosolyognak a távolból; széles
pálmaerdők terjedeznek nagy sötéten s körülárnyékozzák a ragyogó
várost.
A tevék csöndesen ügetnek tovább, az emberek szomorúan
fordítják félre arczaikat. A fatamorgana az, a fantasticus délibáb, a
puszta álmai elmult dicsőségéről. Jön egy szellő s elleheli a roppant
várost a föld szinéről, a sokszinű paloták eltünnek, el a sötét
pálmaerdő és a magas falak. A sivatag közepén egymásra hányt
oszlopok látszanak, miket félig behordott a homok, s egy tágas
templom circusában lakik nagy nyomorúan negyven család, kik
nádból épített viskókat ragasztottak a templom oldalához;
márványfalak közt kizöldült töviseken néhány kecske legel. Három
napi járó földön tört szobrok, csonka oszlopok merednek föl a
sivatagból, várva az időt és a vihart, mely őket lassankint eltemesse.
Ez Palmyra.

TSONG-NU.
(Historiai novella.)
Hol, merre nem jártál te egykor bujdosó magyar nép? Merre nem
hordoztad hajdan fegyveredet? Melyik föld, melyik nép nem látott
még téged?
Hol a jeges tenger hófedett partjain alig teng az élet, odáig
hatoltál, Oroszország legutolsó széléig; – végig hajtottad legelő
méneseid a Don és Volga végtelen rónáin; paripáid keresztül-kasul
száguldották a három égöv alatt fekvő birodalmat.
Byzancz érczkapuját bárddal beütötted; három lépéssel
keresztüllépted a keleti Róma birodalmát.
Párist, az egykori Lutetiát, csak védistene, a köd rejté el szemeid
elől, s a chalonsi mezőn, hol a félvilággal küzdöttél, százezer halottja
fekszik ellenidnek, kiknek neve sincs már.
Hol a világváros Róma, nemzeteknek anyja, hetes halmán
fekszik, ott is voltál, láttad őt remegni, láttad könyörögni.
És túl e világrészen, a bölcsektől ismert határok mögött, ott is
jártál, ott is megismertetéd magadat.
Hol a mennyei birodalom, China, örökké egyforma századjait éli;
hol a sárga folyam mellett Pecking áll porczellán tornyaival s roppant
népségével, mely egy országnak is elég volna: te ott is megjelentél,
évről évre adódat megkérni.
A chinai császárok roppant bástyát emeltek ellened, egy kétszáz
mértföldnyi hosszúságú kőfalat, minden nyillövésnyire magas
tornyokkal.

De a bástya nem védi a népet, ha a nép nem védi a bástyát.
Alig volt készen ez óriási mű, a világnak e hetedik csodája, ismét
megjelentek myriad és myriad lovas csapatjaid, ott, a hol senki sem
várta, hol élettelen sivatag, úttalan rengeteg, parttalan folyamok
állták el útjokat.
A hunn raj átkelt rajtok. A sivatagon megette a vadat, megitta
vérét, a rengetegen utat égetett magának, s a folyamokat keresztül
úszta.
A nép, mely a bástyát építé, ijedve hagyta azt el, a véletlenül
megjelent had elől.
A hunn paripák ismét a menyei birodalom földén dobogtak.
Ekkor a császár Kao-Ti összegyűjté seregeit; hegy nem volt elég
magas, melyről beláthatta volna hadainak terjedelmét; – e roppant
sereggel indult a hunnok ellen.
Egy nagy rónát nézett ki magának csatatérül, ott négyszögbe
állítá seregeit, maga középre állt, a hova semmi nyil nem juthatott s
odavárta elleneit.
A hunnok négy felé váltak, s roppant seregeiket szétosztva,
elfoglalák a szomszéd hegyeket, körülfogva a császár táborát.
A megszámlálhatlan hadsereg nem tudott hová mozdulni, az
éhség miatt hetednapra császárostul együtt megadta magát
elleneinek.
Ez idő óta adót fizetett a menyei birodalom a hatalmas nomád
népnek; aranyat, selymet, porczellánt és a legszebb hölgyeket.
Ez így tartott éveken át. A hunn nép nem szántott, nem
kereskedett, nem szőtt, mégis gazdag volt és pompás.
* * *

Történt azonban, hogy Kao-Ti császár meghalálozván, legidősebb
fia, Tsong-Nu szállana fel a megürült trónra.
Ennek első dolga az volt, hogy apja háromszázhatvan feleségét
mind a tengerbe hányatta, s valamennyi testvérét, nagybátyját és
rokonát lenyakaztatá, miglen egyedül állott a trónon.
Ekkor kezde széttekinteni országa fölött. Kétszáz-millió főnyi
népen uralkodék, s mégis adófizetője volt kétszázezer embernek; a
hunn követek épen akkor érkeztek oda a sarczolt harácsot átvenni,
mit a meghalt császár mandarinjai eleve nagy gondoskodva
elkészítettek, megrakva ötven nagy teherhajót aranynyal és ezüsttel.
Tsong-Nu kivezetteté a követeket a sárga folyam partjára, a hol a
hajók állottak.
– Ime, itt a kincs, melyért jöttetek, monda nekik, s azzal inte a
mandarinoknak, hogy sülyeszszék el a hajókat.
A mandarinok az ijedtségtől elsáppadva hullottak térdre a császár
előtt, könyörögve, hogy ne hozzon veszélyt országára s ne
semmisítsen meg annyi kincset.
Tsong-Nu rögtön leütteté a mandarinok fejeit s azzal maga ment
a hajók fenekét megfúrni, a szittya-követek szeme láttára sülyesztve
azokat a víz fenekére.
– Most menjetek, temessétek be az arany- és ezüstbányákat, a
bányászokat vigyétek onnan a vas-bányákba; nem aranynyal, vassal
fogjuk ezentúl az adót fizetni.
Úgy lőn, a mint megparancsolá; a szittya követek elmentek, s a
mennyei birodalom minden kovácsműhelyei fegyvereket kezdtek
készíteni.
Fegyver lett elég, de ember nem volt, a ki azt viselje.
A népnek egy ezredrésze sem volt képes a hadra. A legnagyobb
rész művész volt, vagy mesterember; pap, kereskedő és hivatalnok

több volt az elégnél; hemzsegett az ország koldusoktól,
szemfényvesztőktől, csak a katona volt ritkaság. A ki volt is, nem
hivatása vitte oda, hanem a kaszt, melyben született.
Tsong-Nu rögtön parancsot adott ki, hogy egész országában
minden szövő-széket össze kell törni, a porczellán kemenczéket
bedönteni, a kereskedők hajóit elsülyeszteni, a bálványokat leszórni,
a hivatalnokokat s szemfényvesztőket füleiktől fosztani meg.
Úgy lőn, a mint parancsolá. Egy hét alatt össze voltak törve a
bámulatos selyem-szövőszékek, a himző rámák, az üvegfestő
műhelyek, a porczellán huták; megégették a selyempilléket,
elgázolták a cochenillákat, kitépték tövestül a theafákat, a
kaucsukerdőket; széthasgatták a kereskedőhajók bambuszból
kötözött gördülő vitorláit; városrul városra kergették a
kigyótánczoltatókat, sáskaviaskodtatókat, kötélen ugrálókat,
betanított majmaikkal, egereikkel és papagályaikkal; felforgatták a
pagodákat; összezúzták az agyaras, terpeszkedő állatfejű
bálványokat; lekonczolták a hajcsárok tevéit; hasba szurkálták, a
kinek a hasára arany, vagy kék, vagy piros kakas, mint hivatali
rendjel volt himezve; – volt űzés, hajtás az országban; a
nekiszabadított katonák a kit elől-utól találtak, sapkáján
keresztülhuzott czaffjából, vagy füleiből vagdaltak el, – pedig chinai
ember mindkettőre igen hiú; végre nem maradt egyéb műszer az
országban, mint a földmüves ekéje, az a csodálatosan ügyetlen X-
alakú ásó, melylyel a chinai földjét fel szokta turkálni; ekkor ezt is
megégetteté a császár s az asztagokat felgyujtatta, a gabonát
beleszóratta a folyókba, tengerekbe.
Az embereknek nem maradt egyéb hátra, mint éhenhalni, vagy
Tsong-Nu hadseregébe állani.
Vagy még egy harmadik: föltámadni ellene.
Ezt választák a Quenn-Hinn tartomány lakosai, azon időben
mintegy husz millió lélekből álló nép.

E tartománya volt Chinának mindannyi közt a legszebb,
leggazdagabb.
Halmain a legbujábban tenyésztek a kávé- és theaültetvények,
rónáin leggazdagabb volt a rizs-aratás, kikötőiben legtöbb hajó
fordult meg, tenger-homokjában legszebb gyöngyöket termett a
csigaház, egész erdei voltak kenyérfából és banaánból, folyamaiban
bottal lehetett ütni a halakat, s kavicsdombjaiban gyémántok
teremtek.
Fővárosa, Lieu-King, terjedelmére megközelíté Peckinget;
porczellántornyai, függőkertjei, festett palotái, szines üvegházai,
csigákkal kirakott utczái, bronzból öntött kigyói, szökőkútjai,
kalapfödelü pagodái ép oly csodálatosak voltak, mint azé; itt tudták
legjobban készíteni a pálmabort, itt himzettek legszebben selyemre,
itt szőtték a legcsodálatosabb virágos kelméket, itt ismerék a
titkokat, mint lehet az üveget hajlékonynyá tenni, az aranyat
rózsaszinűre, az ezüstöt azurkékre festeni; itt égeték a legátlátszóbb
porczellánt, mely szikrát adott, mint a tűzkő, s melyet hajlítani
lehete, a nélkül, hogy összetörjék. Itt tanyáztak a vén tudósok, kik
rég ismerék ama csodás port, mely lángot ád és mennydörög, kik
föltalálták a könyvnyomást, az északtűt, a léghajót, mikor még
mindezeknek Európában hire sem volt; s midőn az év tiszteletére a
búcsújárás napján a tartomány népei idesereglettek, mennyi tarka
népet lehetett itt látni! A mandarinokat tányéralakú üveggombos
sipkáikkal, mellükön az arany kakassal; a theakereskedőket hasukig
lelógó vékony bajuszokkal, a mint a bazárok előtt keresztbe vetett
lábbal leültek, s egy öblös tálból két vékony fapálczával rakták
szájukba a halból, zöldségből s gyümölcsből összefőtt ételt; amott
egy kötélen tánczoló körül csoportozik a nép, ki rézalmákat hajigál a
légbe, míg odább tánczoló bajadér vonja magára a bámészok
figyelmét, leterített szőnyegén kerengve, szökellve s csörgős dobját
verve feje fölött; itt egy kalitkában felgyürkőzött hentes árul jól
meghizott kutyákat s pórázra feltűzött kövér patkányokat, a chinai
nép legkedvesebb csemegéit; amott a borbély háromlábú székét
letéve az utcza közepére, ügyesen tépdesi ki az emberek állaiból a

szőrt; a házak tetőin egy szép hölgy hűsel nagylevelű illatos virágok
árnyában, tízhúros hangszerét pengetve rózsaszinre festett ujjaival,
lábacskái, mik a selyem redők közül kilátszanak, a szánkóorrú
papucscsal együtt alig nagyobbak, mint egy gyermeké. Másutt
templomba siet a nép, hol bőujjú kaftánban hajtogatja szárnyalakú
sipkás fejét egy két lábra állított rézvadkan előtt valami vén főpap; a
templomajtó előtt kigyótánczoltató énekli ördöngős danáit, mik
kényszerítik a csörgőkigyót farkára állani s sziszegve tánczolni
köröskörül a nép előtt; néhol a nép között málhákkal rakott tollas
dromedárok ügetnek keresztül, másutt poroszlók nyitnak utat egy
potrohos tisztviselőnek, kinek feje fölött hosszú nyelű napernyőt visz
egy félmeztelen szerecsen rabfiú, vagy czafrangos palankinban
czepelteti magát egy kényes, elhizott mandarin, felálló hajcsapja
sipkájából kilóg, utána ügyetlen katonák tolongnak, fejükön nyílvégű
sisak, melynek görbe fogantyúja van, mint a theás ibriknek,
vezetőjük fejéről pávatollak lógnak, majd elbukik hosszú köntösében,
a zászlótartónak czikkczakkos lobogóján sárkányok vannak festve,
sisakján forgandó szélvitorlát visel, és valamennyi, míg egy kezében
valami ügyetlen fegyvert hordoz, görbe kardot, melynek belül van az
éle, nyilat, melyet kézzel kell hajítni, vagy dárdát, melynek hegye
kigyófark alakú, a másik kezében lapátszerű legyezőt tart, melylyel a
forróságot, legyeket űzi magától.
De semmi sem volt oly becses, oly hirhedt Quenn-Hinn
tartományban, mint az ottani nők; ezek a karcsú, érzéki alakok, piczi
lábaikkal, epedő, hosszúkás, sötét szemeikkel, halvány arczaikkal,
gömbölyű vállaikkal; sehol sem tudták a mandolint úgy pengetni,
mint ők, a hajfürtöket fölfelé fésülve sehol sem tudták oly szeszélyes
alakú kontyba csavarni, s a bogláros emailtűkkel oly izletesen
körültüzkődni, az övet úgy kötni a karcsú derékra. A lefüggő fátyol, a
hosszú bő patyolatujj senkinek sem illett oly jól, mint ő nekik.
Ez a nép szegült Tsong-Nu parancsai ellen. A vének, a
mandarinok, a kereskedők, a selyemszövők testületileg tagadták
meg rendeleteinek végrehajtását.

Tsong-Nu ekkor kiküldé katonáit, hogy a lázadókat menjenek
megbüntetni, s egy hét alatt nem volt a Quenn-Hinn tartománynak
sem kávé-, sem thea-ültetvénye, sem bányái, sem szövőszékei, sem
porczellán-hutái; Tsong-Nu fegyveresei kivágtak, letörtek,
összezúztak, betemettek mindent.
Ekkor összeszedete Tsong-Nu minden férfit, a ki a Quenn-Hinn
tartományban lakott; a ki a gyermekkoron felül volt, azt elvitte
katonának, a ki a férfikoron felül volt, azt megölette; nem maradt ott
egyéb, mint a gyermek és a nő.
A katonának vitt férfiak nem részesültek többé a kényelemben,
heverésben, melyben azelőtt; korán reggeltől késő estig fáradságos
hadi gyakorlatokat tartatott velük Tsong-Nu; az ügyetlen fegyverek
helyett kézíjhoz kellett szokniok, s a legyező helyett nehéz paizst
kellett emelniök. A legkisebb vétség-, mulasztásért bambuszszal
vertek a hibázó talpára s egy engedetlen tekintetért fejét ütötték el.
Ha valamelyik elszökött, azon városra izentek, a melyből való volt
s jaj volt neki, ha elő nem teremté a szökevényt, – a földdel tétetett
egyenlővé.
Egyszer a Quenn-Hinn népfaj közül egyszerre tizen szöktek meg,
mind Lieu-Kingből való ifjak.
Tsong-Nu ráparancsolt a városra, hogy a szökevényeket keresse
föl, s midőn az engedett időre azok meg nem kerültek, kimondá a
másfél millió lakosú városra, hogy semmivé legyen!
És tulajdon magukat az onnan elhozott férfiakat küldé irtózatos
itélete végrehajtására.
Ez nála szokás volt. A fegyelem legiszonyúbb próbája volt ez s
még nem akadt rá eset, hogy a szülötte városát elpusztítani kiküldött
sereg a parancsot ne teljesítette volna.
Első eset lőn a Lieu-Kingé. A kiküldött sereg, a helyett hogy
lerombolta volna apái lakhelyét, megerősíté annak bástyáit, s a piacz
közepére egy nagy, rézből öntött fenevadat állíta föl és aláirta: «e

vadállat Tsong-Nu», s azzal kimondá, hogy városát halálig fogja
védni.
Tsong-Nu három napi bőjtöt hirdete e hir hallatára az egész
országra, mely idő alatt naponként háromszor kiálták ki a
templomokban, a piaczokon s a városok kapuiban a császár
rettenetes esküjét, melyben felfogadta az isteneknek, hogy nyoma
sem maradand meg Lieu-King városnak, sem a népnek, mely azt
építette.
A bőjt után összegyűjté seregeit s minden oldalról betört Quenn-
Hinn tartományba. Ki nem menekülhetett senki, az egész nép a
főváros körül torlódott össze, ott kellett neki magát védni, vagy
elveszni.
A halálra itélt ország a kétségbeesés erejével oltalmazta bástyáit.
Három évig ostromolta Tsong-Nu Lieu-King várost, a nélkül, hogy
egy házat elfoglalhatott volna belőle. Szerencséjére a scythák
messze fenn az obi jeges partján táboroztak ekkor s nem értek rá őt
zaklatni, egész erejét a lázadók ellen fordíthatá.
De az ellentállás megtörhetlennek látszott; az ostromlottak nagy
árkokat fúrtak a föld alatt oda, honnan legerősebben hányták Tsong-
Nu kőhajító gépei a mázsás sziklákat bástyáikra s megtöltve azokat
ama csodálatos porral, melyet később Európában Schvarcz Berthold
fedezett föl, fölvetteték őket a levegőbe.
Három év alatt Tsong-Nu több embert veszte hadaiból, mint a
mennyi a várost védte. Ekkor ő is az elemeket hívta segítségül; vizet
a tűz ellen. Míg a városiak tűzaknákat ástak a föld alatt, azalatt ő a
városukon keresztülhullámzó zöld folyamot óriási gáttal elrekeszté.
A megállított folyam iszonyú erővel fordult meg medrében s
néhány nap alatt tengerré gyűlt a város körül, víz alá meríté annak
utczáit, ledönté a földsánczokat, kiűzte a lakókat házaikból, s eloltá a
föld alá furt tűzaknákat.

Tsong-Nu ekkor hajókra, tutajokra szállítá ostromló seregeit, s így
támadta meg a védelemtől megfosztott lakókat, kik a nőttön
emelkedő vízár elől házaik tetejére menekülve, minden rendszeres
védelemmel kénytelenek voltak felhagyni. Az ostromlók egyenként
támadták meg a házakat s utczáról utczára foglalák el a veszni
kényszerített várost, melynek sorsából nem volt egyéb hátra, mint a
halál.
A kétségbeesés e pillanatában fölgyujtá palotáit a nép, s a
hullámok és lángok csatája közt vítta ki utolsó harczát, melynek
végeztével az egész Quenn-Hinn népből nem maradt meg egyéb,
mint a gyermekek és hölgyek.
Midőn sem tűz, sem víz nem talált mit rombolni többé Lieu-
Kingben, akkor széttöré a gátakat Tsong-Nu, a kék folyam zuhogva
rohant le a pusztult város romjairól, vért és holttesteket sodorva
örvényei között. Tsong-Nu ekkor katonáit ereszté a városra, hogy azt
eltemessék. A szó teljes értelmében el lőn az temetve. A tornyok, a
csonka falak, melyek még állottak, lehordattak a föld szinére, a
kőhalmokat behordták földdel, bokrot ültettek tetejökbe, a szétvert
paloták helyét behantolták pázsittal. Semmit sem volt szabad elhozni
a városból, a drágaságokat belehányták a kutakba, hogy még
emléke se maradjon utána; nem sokára a hely, hol a büszke város
állott, egy zöld legelővé lőn varázsolva, melyen gyéren ingott a
vadbokor, befutva szurós tövisindáktól, csupán azon szobor csonka
talapja maradt fenn, melyen a réz fenevad állott, Tsong-Nu
gúnyemléke; most e csonka kőre e szavak lőnek irva:
«Itt volt Lieu-King város!»
Egyéb semmi. Száz mértföldnyi kerületben üres volt és laktalan a
vidék.
Az elhullottak koponyáiból egy roppant pyramidot emeltek a zöld
folyam mellett, melynek szegletköveire ez volt irva:
«Itt van azon népnek bölcsesége, mely Tsong-Nu ellen fellázadt!»

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Unsustainable The Urgent Need To Transform Society And Reverse Climate Change Richard Joy