Viral foresight

Viral Foresight
Exploring the COVID-19
Change Imperative
Ken Balmer
www.rethink-group.com

Purpose
To broaden the dialogue
about how the
COVID-19 experience could
change our lives, enterprises
and governance.
 To identify the learnings
 To understand alternative responses – each a
plausible scenario that could guide future decisions
for individuals, communities, businesses and
governments
 To identify universal strategies – robust
solutions that play well across several possible
futures.
Although this document uses PowerPoint, it is intended to be read by
individuals – not deployed as a presentation tool. The ‘pages’ are
content heavy and would not play well on a big screen.

Premise
 Although much of the world in May 2020 longs to ‘return to normal’, many believe that our past
behaviours are actually the problem. The question should not be “When can we return to normal?”, but
rather, “Which aspects of normal should be protected and nurtured as we move into the future?”.
 The wise will consider the lessons of our experience with COVID-19 and begin the process of purposefully
shifting away from the behaviours and patterns that collectively weaken us – moving consciously and
aggressively towards those that build sustainability and resilience.
 Before COVID-19, many believed and acted as if there was no social equity, housing, food security,
climate, biodiversity and/or governance dysfunction. Events over the past few months have opened our
eyes. The systems that failed us in this moment of crisis are the same systems that brought us to this
point – on our knees, unprepared, uncoordinated, inventing something better on the fly.
 COVID-19 has disrupted our way of life, our communities, our businesses and our governments. Our
financial security, our supply chains, our mobility, our liberties all changed almost overnight.
 It’s like a combination of Humpty Dumpty and the Emperor with no clothes. The problem is now
apparent. But what will the solution look like? How will we reassemble the broken pieces? What will our
new wardrobe look like? We have a real opportunity to assemble a better future.

Approach/Overview/Table of Contents
1. Learnings that have opened our eyes
 Not about the virus itself, but about what we now know about the context of our response
 New understandings about ourselves, our communities and systems that could significantly change
future expectations and behaviours.
2. A high level look at how we have responded
 The individual, community, corporate and government initiatives that have served us well
 In most cases, the concepts and approaches that underlie the response have been in play for a long
time – COVID-19 has simply been an accelerant
 Each could be a significant driver of change as we move forward, post pandemic.
3. Scenario Development
 Some thoughts on how we might conceptualize alternatives for moving forward
 Four views of the future based on whether or not our learnings and responses take root.
4. Universal Strategies
 Approaches that work regardless of the scenario or alternative future that you prefer
 Action ideas for individuals, communities, corporations and governments.

COVID Learnings that have opened our eyes
A new appreciation for the urban outdoors
No further debate – WE threaten the climate and environment
Science and expertise over partisan spin and opinion
Neglecting the most vulnerable leaves us all vulnerable
Basic Need Insecurity – Maslow Revisited
COVID
Learnings
We ARE prepared to accept both disruption AND major
government expenditure for the common good
A new appreciation for ‘essential workers’

Basic Need Insecurity – Maslow Revisited
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
 In the developed world, many have
assumed that basic needs associated with
food, shelter and safety are secure – now
we know that the systems and supply chains
were designed only for the good times, for
profit, for growth.
 Locked down, we have a greater
appreciation for ‘belonging needs’, that we
are social animals. Even introverts found
that reliance on remote, digital contact was
inadequate.
 For many, esteem needs have been
shattered. We are not sure that we can be
the provider our households need. We lack
confidence that the economy wants us back.
Our self-image is too often job related and it
is suffering.
Long Term Implications
 Increased interest in food self-sufficiency
(gardens, cooking, sharing)
 New support for safe, secure, affordable
housing initiatives
 New interest in local supply chains – e.g.
100 Mile Diet, critical supplies made in
our own countries.

Neglecting the most vulnerable leaves us all vulnerable
COVID-19 has attacked the most vulnerable, and then spread to include the rest of us.
Our resistance to equity and inclusion; our reluctance to invest in the ‘preconditions to health’
has put us all at risk ….
 Lower income groups are among the most vulnerable – more likely to live with a chronic condition and
less likely to have ready access to the health care resources required
 Those living at higher density will suffer first and most – in our slums, seniors homes, residential
institutions and the military
 Displaced populations, including refugees are segregated and scapegoated – without the basic
infrastructure, nutrition and health care that international agreements commit to providing
 Our seniors, facing fragility, fixed/often
inadequate incomes, and health
challenges towards end of life were
some of the first to succumb in Italy
and France, and then everywhere.
 New appreciation that we are all in this together –
that neglect of needs for some will eventually
impact all.
 Increased willingness to invest in social, economic,
health and justice equities.
 Demand for better treatment of the seniors we will
all become in time.

Science and expertise over partisan spin and opinion
Our drift from science and validated expertise, has left us unprepared and vulnerable to
partisan opinion and misrepresentation ….
 COVID-19 has taught us to listen to the science, to be patient while the medical community investigates
their way towards the solutions we need, and to trust those that have spent their lives developing
expertise specific to the crisis at hand
 We have learned that it was a mistake to let government restraint get in the way of acting on the
recommendations that emerged after SARS (2003), H1N1 or the swine flu (2009), the West Africa Ebola
crisis (2014), and the Zika outbreak in the Americas (2016). We shortchanged epidemic monitoring,
related research, disaster preparedness and resource stockpiling. We listened to politicians who were
only listening to us and the polls. This crisis was simply not on the public radar.
 We have learned to trust informed voices and to be suspect of those that are learning on the job, often
as they speak.
 Those countries, states/provinces
and cities that have done well with
COVID-19 had strong public health
and crisis management systems in
place and allowed the experts to lead.
 Reinvestment in prevention and preparation.
 Rejection of ‘spin’ in favour of fact.
 Strengthening of public health systems and
institutions – locally, nationally and globally.
 Clear understanding that we have a choice – pay
now or pay much more later.

No further debate -
WE threaten the climate and environment …..
We have witnessed first hand the direct relationship between human activity and
environmental deterioration ….
 As we have closed factories, reduced air and car travel, and minimized consumption we have watched
the skies clear over our cities, the waters cleanse themselves, animals wander through territories that
they lost to human occupation decades ago, and noise pollution all but disappear. The birds are not
only back, but often the dominant sound when we open windows each morning.
 Environmental changes were first visible from space – the brown pollution belts over world cities all
but disappeared within days of lockdowns enforced worldwide. Scientists report reductions in carbon
dioxide and nitrogen dioxide of as much as 40%.
 We have immediate proof that humans
are the greatest threat to the environment
and that any changes we make to our
consumptive behaviours will have
immediate, positive impact.
 Increased demand and support for climate change
initiatives – private and public sectors.
 Increased personal/household commitment to
carbon footprint reduction - reduced car use, energy
conservation and conversion, etc.
 Increased focus on at-source sewage pollutant
reduction everywhere – home, office, industry.
 Increased investment in urban green spaces – urban
lungs and habitat.

A new appreciation for ‘essential workers’
Prior to COVID-19, the notion of an essential worker was generally applied within a sector or
unionized enterprise. When governments, teachers, or selected industries had to cease normal
operations for some reason, the core elements of the operation were protected by a few.
 When our entire economy, educational system, parts of our health system, retail, entertainment
industries all paused at once, we learned that essential meant food supply chains, access to our drugs,
sanitation, garbage collection, health care/support. We had to put most other things into a ‘luxury
category’ and we learned to live without them (at least for a while).
 We found that the majority of these essentials were provided by low income earners, many needing two
or more jobs to survive. They were the ones forced to take the employment-related health risks to keep
us fed and healthy. We did not want them wandering from workplace to workplace for fear of cross-
contamination. Temporary raises were
required for worker retention – first
covered by the employers, then turning
into national subsidy programs.
 Staying home, forced to do the work of
teachers, we understood their challenges.
 We began saying “thank you for staying
open”, “thank you for your service”
to those we had ignored for decades.
 Revitalization of the ‘living wage’ movement.
 Salary increases for the underpaid professions
(the nursing hierarchy, US teachers)
 Increased deployment of digital and robotic
solutions to help ensure business continuity.
 Increased dignity and respect for essential
workers – not just during times of crisis.

A new appreciation for the urban outdoors
City parks were developed in the 18th century as urban lungs and places to nurture the health of
newly urbanized populations adjusting to high density work/living and to inadequate sanitation
infrastructure. COVID-19 reminded current generations of the value of getting outdoors.
 Beyond yoga and home fitness, the only opportunities for exercise were in our parks and on our trails.
Bicycle sales exploded. Walking and jogging equated with freedom. Gyms and fitness centers seem risky.
 The concept of safe social distancing kept us out of enclosed spaces and encouraged strolls and
conversations with others in the parks, wider apart than normal. Even as restaurants begin to reopen, it
is the outdoor seating that makes most sense.
 A walk through green space has always
been an effective stress management tool.
Now more of us know it.
 “Perhaps what is most vividly clear is that
hunger for and the gift of the public
streets, squares and parks has never
been more crucial. Parks then and today
are the great equalizers, and are
biologically and spiritually essential.”
(Architect Marion Weiss)
 Renewed interest in development of public
spaces, particularly in high density
environments.
 Shift in personal fitness regimes towards home
and outdoor based activity – affordable, safe
and sustainable.
 Immense pressure on natural parks (provincial,
state, national) given mass travel restrictions
and new preferences for fresh air and open
spaces.

We ARE prepared to accept both disruption AND
major government expenditure for the common good
Just a few short months ago, we could never have imagined our collective ability to accept
disruption for the public or common good ….
 Our tolerance for disruption is perhaps the greatest surprise. We have stopped travel, paused
employment, separated ourselves from loved ones, and willingly put ourselves under a version of
house arrest. In most cases, this has happened voluntarily; advice rather than orders was sufficient.
 Over half of the world’s population has been restrained without riots. Police or military action only
required in countries where trust in leadership was low.
 Together, we understood that we would all gain if we all cooperated. In many cases, the personal costs
were immense with livelihoods at risk; we still worked as citizens reliant on each other.
 This respect for the public good and
willingness to sacrifice will serve us well
as a future of challenges unfolds. The
systems we develop to compensate
for related sacrifice will live on …
 A new generation has learned about
the extremely high levels of public
sector investment required to keep lives
and economies healthy in time of crisis
– and we have been both willing and
supportive as OUR governments
respond to OUR collective needs.
 Increased willingness to invest in prevention and
preparation so as to avoid or reduce the impact of
future crises – to avoid more expensive disruption in
the future.
 Willingness to use similar tools to move more
quickly on climate change, biodiversity, social justice
and population displacement issues; pre-emptively,
before debilitating crisis.
 A shift on the rights/responsibility scale toward
greater appreciation of responsibility to the
common good.

The Solutions that have been accelerated by COVID-19
Our coping strategies, in many cases were already in place. COVID-19 accelerated and pushed wider
adoption. These could well be the foundations of our future; they will almost certainly serve as
foundations for the alternative scenarios we begin to imagine; they are universally relevant, useful
regardless of the broader choices we make.
A new appreciation of the critical role of governments
Global Threats need collaborative, international solutions
An accelerator for everything digital
Corporate Citizenship – local, national and global
Expansive Community Caring
Non-
medical
Solutions

Expansive Community Caring
COVID-19 exposed the vulnerabilities in our neighbourhoods and communities – vulnerabilities
that we suddenly all shared. And ‘WE’ rose to the occasion!
 The media has been filled with stories of care, individuals noting that challenges that those around them
face and stepping up: to help get food and necessary drugs, to make masks, to have six foot conversations
with local ‘friends’ new and old, to organize around the question “Who among us is at risk?”
 Existing non-profit organizations have been our champions: food banks, meals on wheels, shelters, hot lines,
advocacy groups, legal aid organizations. Collectively, we have noticed and engaged ourselves.
 We have learned to phone the non-profits, the charities with our problems and to cherish their caring
response, their flexibility, their innovative spirit, their ability to be there almost instantly when we can’t
even get businesses and governments on the line.
 We have watched while governments
sent bailouts and financial support
to businesses of all kinds – only
belatedly remembering that our
non-profits also have staff and that
their function is ‘community critical’.
 We may never again take our
voluntary sector for granted.
 Increased individual commitment to local charities
that look after local needs – philanthropy and
voluntarism.
 Increased corporate and government appreciation
for the work of this ‘third sector’ and possible
reversal of the quarter century of dwindling support
– a shift back to sustainable core funding, still
retaining ‘special initiative/project’ support.
 Increased respect for non-profit enterprise.

Corporate Citizenship
With few exceptions COVID-19 devastated businesses and corporations. Despite unprecedented
bailouts, many will not survive. Even as they worried about their very existence, many reached
out and leveraged their abilities and assets to provide short term support and solutions to both
clients and non-clients.
 Those in the food and beverage industry began food programs; the entertainment industry went online
to bolster morale; manufacturers of all sizes retooled to make personal protective equipment; companies
with locations everywhere cooperated with government to provide ubiquitous testing sites.
 While criticized for its pandemic response in many ways, the Trump administration early on rallied
corporate giants to partner with government to get critical things done. The announcement event was
beyond impressive; it showed what mature corporate citizenship might look like.
 Companies already committed to
Corporate Sustainability Programs
(ethical, social, environmental, cultural
and economic strategy dimensions)
and ESG investing policies
(environmental, social and governance
integration processes) were first out of
the gate.
 We watched and intuitively knew which
initiatives were authentic and altruistic -
as current and potential customers
and clients, we will remember.
 Increased board and CEO commitment to
corporate citizenship.
 Risk Management and Business Continuity Plans
will increasingly include client and community
considerations.
 Tangible market loyalty response for those
businesses that were there for us during this
pandemic and community crises in the future.

An accelerator for everything digital
COVID-19 demonstrated that we are indeed in the ‘digital age’. Those that had developed online
capacity and competency had the advantage. The decades-old concept of ‘technopeasant’
slapped us in the face – the inequity that we had allowed to develop was particularly appalling.
 Digital technology allowed us to work, learn, shop and be entertained from home. We had dabbled, but
suddenly we were all developing new skills and learning new, highly efficient ways to get things done.
 Organizations (schools, businesses, governments, non-profits) that were current and capable prospered;
those that had allowed their technology to age well past due dates failed their clients and customers.
 COVID-19 accelerated remote and digital health services, educational services, deployment of online
meeting services. Health and educational services that may have been seen as second tier, a complement
rather than replacement, improved overnight and we began to understand that
with just a little investment they could
be as effective as the ‘real thing’.
 We also witnessed the ecological,
life balance and economic advantages
of working and learning from home.
 Unfortunately, we also witnessed the
disenfranchisement of those without
broadband, without multiple computers
in the same home, without remote
space to support remote work and
remote learning. Many off-line students
will lose their year, or carry on
educationally handicapped. Many workers
simply could not connect. Those in need
of general health support could not get it.
 Digital Access is now clearly understood to be a
critical utility – a ‘must’ along with water,
electricity and sewage.
 Rapid new investment in digital access and
services in all sectors, at all levels.
 Rapid deployment as managers, teachers and
health providers have become comfortable with
the approach.
 Innovation – advances everywhere as demand
expands and expectations expand.

Global Threats need collaborative, international solutions
Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan referred to climate change, diseases and terrorism as
‘problems without passports’ that cannot be stopped at the border and can only be tackled
through international cooperation. We know this and yet we have under-invested in global
capacity.
 Many policy makers have lost the concept of ‘global public goods’ and their relevance to their own
national security. COVID-19 has reminded us. This is not the pandemic of the century; the track record
of the past 20 years suggests that we are early on in a century of pandemics. It is not the time to
withdraw or reduce support to international collaboratives such as the World Health Organization.
 It’s a mistake to monitor only our own
population when the problem can fly
into the country at any moment. We
must avoid national pride and/or the
influence of national corporations
when it is time to invest in a test,
a vaccine, a cure or equipment.
Import the best, quickly. Invest in
local supply chains for the future.
 The founding slogan of the
World Future Society comes to mind:
Think Globally, Act Locally.
 Increased willingness to invest in global institutions,
agreements and programs related to disease,
climate change, human development and displaced
populations.
 Increased individual commitment to global
philanthropy – its in our best interest to keep our
international neighbours safe/secure, healthy and
financially self-sufficient.

A new appreciation for the role of government
Even libertarians accepted their financial packages. Ultra conservatives in political positions
swallowed their pride and supported the highest levels of government intervention in history.
Public sector strengths and weaknesses were on display for all to see; we watched cable news
commentary with interest and subconsciously shifted our own thinking.
 Only government will fund the epidemiological research. Screening/surveillance and pandemic
preparedness/response that we now know is necessary. COVID-19 has clearly demonstrated the need for
a robust public health system.
 This generation has only now witnessed widespread acceptance of public sector expenditure/debt
increase to keep lives, businesses, non-profits and institutions afloat. 2008 focused on ‘too big to fail’;
2020 focused on us all. History will compare the Great Depression/New Deal of the last century with the
extraordinary level of government expenditure disbursed today – evaluating both efficiency and
effectiveness.
 We have seen a confusing mix of bailouts
and emergency loans to restore liquidity
and wait for review and evaluation.
 We have needed rapid innovation and
found it necessary to remove many
limiting regulations to get it.
 We know that recovery will be slow and
expect government stimulation of all
kinds. Will these near future investments
keep all that was normal alive, or focus
on sustainability and resilience in the
emerging economy?
 Governments at all levels are winning respect,
when they do things right. The reverse is also true.
 We have an opportunity to use employment
stimulus programs to build infrastructure, talent,
services and products for the next economy – to
position for success where we may have fallen
behind.
 Our public sector has a window to demonstrate
competency, fact based decision-making and
foresight – how our governments perform will
define their future.

Overview – short term impact of COVID-19
For several years, the dislocation shock of the pandemic will mold our behaviours. Indeed, some of
these impacts may persist, particularly if yet another pandemic rises. Expect to see much more
emphasis on the following:
 Personal savings – ‘rainy day funds’
 Food security and self-sufficiency
 Safe, secure and affordable housing initiatives
 Social, economic and health justice and equity
 Local non-profits and charities focused on the vulnerable among us – we have seen that we could be next in line
 Responsible and ethical treatment of our elders – particularly in care homes
 Respect for scientists and experts with related investment in prevention and protection (health, climate, etc.)
 Greater personal, household and community commitment to carbon footprint reduction
 Investment in global institutions, programs and initiatives designed to keep us safe and healthy
 Responsibilities over rights – balance maintained but increased willingness to compromise for public good
 Business commitment to corporate citizenship, corporate sustainability and ESG investing policies
(environmental, social and governance integration processes)
 Remote health care – from the annual check up, through symptom diagnosis and prescription, to ongoing care
for chronic conditions
 Distance learning at all levels, particularly secondary and post-secondary where child care is not an interest
 Digital/Broadband access as critical infrastructure (internet, hardware, literacy) – particular emphasis on rural,
low-income and vulnerable communities
 ‘Living Wages’ so that our essential workers can exist on one full-time job
 Outdoor fitness, recreation and tourism; staycations
 Employment stimulus programs focused on infrastructure and expansion of green, smart economics
 Governments that earn our respect every day – politicians, civil servants, departments, ministries.

But how will these shifts play out?
Let us for the moment assume that the short
term impacts listed on the previous slide will
actually be strong enough to guide decisions as
we move from the present into our collective
future – decisions made by individuals, non-
profits, businesses, institutions and
governments. See the orange arrow.
If this influence persists, it is possible to
imagine the foundations or bones of an
‘Inevitable Future’. The shifts we are seeing
now would become predetermined drivers or
assumed forces that will shape our collective
behaviours. See the blue oval.
However, there are also big questions that
cannot be answered today. How they play out
will change the shape and speed of change.
We can anticipate scenarios and
complementary possibilities based on these
uncertainties.
eng.future-designing.org

Full Commitment
- We get back to ‘normal,
like it, and forget the
lessons we learned
- We convince ourselves
that COVID-19 was like
a 100 year flood, let
future generations take
action
The extent to which our newly demonstrated ability to
accept disruption and expenditure for the common good
persists
Cautious
Application
Temporary
- We Snap Back
- We invest in
pandemic prevention,
but don’t transfer our
learnings to other
social, environmental
and economic
challenges.
- ‘Rights’ arguments
continue to restrain
‘Responsibility’
initiatives
- We adopt the
business practices
of ‘risk assessment’
and ‘continuity
planning’ in our
lives and all
sectors, and invest
appropriately
- ‘Rights’ carefully
considered as
‘Responsibilities’
play out.
Critical Uncertainty 1

Critical Uncertainty 2
High
- Emphasis on grass
roots initiative –
personal and through
a trusted Third Sector
(non-profits)
- Power transfer to
local governments
willing to engage as
partners.
- Increased Corporate
Citizenship
Our trust in and willingness to accept leadership
from our governments and public institutions
ModerateLow
- Some governments
and institutions prove
to be credible and
are supported
- Continuing debate
(scientific, partisan
and opinion views)
- Confusion and lack of
consensus
undermines progress
- Individuals wait for
consensus, limited
personal initiative
- Push for fact based
strategic plans
(government and
institutions national
and global) where
crises are known or
anticipated
- Major investments
in the plans we like
- Multi-sector buy-in
and participation in
implementation
- Individuals support
and take action.

Four Scenarios to consider …
If we once again assume that the learnings from the current pandemic will result in some obvious shifts in
behaviour (see Overview, slide 19), their application will depend on the two critical uncertainties presented on
the previous two pages.
How we respond in each
‘uncertainty arena’ will provide
part of the answer of what our
future will look like and how
quickly change will occur.
But it is a little more complex.
We can generalize to say that
there are a quadrant of
possibilities when the two
‘uncertainties’ interact.
Using each as an axis, we
can imagine four
possible scenarios.
www.emeraldinsight.com

Alternative Futures – the Scenarios
Level of Commitment to the Public Good
LOW
Snaps Back
after COVID
HIGH
Wide
Application
TrustinGovernment/PublicInstitutions
HIGH
LOW
RETURN
TO STATUS QUO
Relatively little investment
in prevention, preparation
and equity
SLOW LEARNINGS
Our fact and evidence-based
leadership gradually promotes
change related to each major
challenge (e.g. social injustice,
disease, climate, diversity,
terrorism, displacement)
RAPID
‘TOP DOWN’ CHANGE
We empower our governments
to take action and invest heavily
In the plans and strategies that
make sense. Broad community
and corporate support.
MODERATE PACED
‘GRASS ROOTS’ CHANGE
Many initiatives from individuals,
community groups, and corporations.
learnings and successes merge
to form larger initiatives and to
pull the public sector along.

Alternative Futures – the Scenarios
Level of Commitment to the Public Good
LOW
Snaps Back
after COVID
HIGH
Wide
Application
TrustinGovernment/PublicInstitutions
HIGH
LOW
RETURN TO STATUS QUO
• COVID-19 Learnings ignored
• fingers crossed for no recurrence
• 2019 business patterns restored
• Government focus on debt repayment
(recovery from COVID expenditure)
• rights over responsibilities
• Relatively little investment in prevention,
preparation and equity
• Stimulus spending limited, with focus on
business growth.
• Continued decline (social justice, disease,
climate, ecological diversity, displacement)
• High risk of crises.
SLOW LEARNINGS
• COVID-19 Learnings ignored by public
- individuals, families, communities and
businesses focus on return to 2019 normal
• Public sector and scientific leadership
promoting change related to each major
challenge (social justice, disease, climate,
ecological diversity, immigration/displacement)
• Low public willingness to invest through the
public purse or sacrifice personally
• High risk of crises in all areas
• Shift in stimulus spending toward public good.
• High risk of return crises in all areas.
MODERATE PACED ‘GRASS ROOTS’ CHANGE
• Escalation of household, community and business initiative
related to COVID learnings – little coordination at first
• Gradual identification of successes, best practice adoption
• Broad adoption of digital solutions – telework, telehealth, tele-
learning, online commerce
• Community-based application of COVID learnings beyond
health – social justice, climate change, ecological diversity
• Increased corporate citizenship and ESG evident
• Widespread value shift towards responsibility – common good
• ‘Risk Assessment’ and ‘continuity planning’ in all our lives and
all sectors
• Government slowly takes note and responds supportively.
RAPID ‘TOP DOWN’ CHANGE
• Broad community and corporate support for governments
to take action and invest heavily in carefully developed
plans and strategies (disease, vulnerable populations,
climate change, digital justice)
• Increased collaboration among levels of government
• Increased investment in global solutions/institutions
• Rights protected as focus on responsibilities plays out
• Stimulus spending focus on green and sustainable
strategies; willingness to de-emphasize ‘problem industries’
• Strong, supportive responses from community and
corporate leaders – multisector mobilization.
• Success and positive feedback from increased investments
in prevention/protection.

The Concept of a Universal Strategy
When looking at the four scenario options,
two questions come to mind:
1. Which quadrant will your province/state
or nation be in 12 months from now.
2. Accepting that quadrant as a starting
point, how will our collective
sentiments, values and priorities evolve;
which quadrant will be next, and how
quickly will we get there?
The answers will vary in each geographical
region around the continent and the world.
In the meantime, each of us (both as
individuals and in our own leadership
capacities) will look for a ‘universal strategy’:
one that positions the us and our
organizations well regardless of the scenario
that we find ourselves in. The effort in
developing and implementing the strategy or
strategies will have value regardless;
immediate value will be evident and the
action will help position us for the future we
want to live and work in.
Consider:
 Never again being without a ‘rainy day’ fund
 Developing truly healthy behaviours, life and workstyles
 Food and critical supply security and self-sufficiency
 Continuing those 2020 practices that restored the environment
(e.g. reducing car use)
 Investing in digital literacy, hardware and infrastructure
 Paying more attention to the vulnerable in our own
communities and supporting groups/actions that take action
 Supporting politicians that understand the importance of
prevention and protection - in all areas, not just health
 Developing our own ‘fake news’ criteria and taking the time to
be selective before we buy in to arguments and positions
 Surfacing wide discussion about the appropriate balance on the
rights/responsibilities continuum – issue by issue, crisis by …
 Actively probing how we might apply our learnings and
willingness to act during the pandemic to the immediate
challenge of carbon footprint/climate change. Talking about
our willingness to invest in solutions and make
sacrifices as required.
These strategies or approaches can work for households,
communities, businesses and governments (at all levels).

We create our future through our
actions and inactions today.
Ken Balmer
kbalmer@rethink-group.com
www.rethink-group.com

Viral foresight

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