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Yaser Abu Nasr_The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning: The MENA Context
- 1. The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning The MENA Context Yaser Abunnasr American University of Beirut University of Massachusetts Amherst October 03, 2012 Second Regional Summer School September 30 to October 04, 2012 Amman, Jordan
- 2. Introduction The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning The MENA Context • Part 1:Introduction to Climate Change, Livelihoods & urban places • Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process • Part 3: Climate Adaptation in the MENA Region • Concluding remarks • Questions and Discussion
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- 4. Introduction Livelihood Resources Urban Places The physical dimension of livelihood resources • Places for: living, work, recreation, governance & commerce supported by transportation and utility networks What kind of places are we creating? How are we developing our cities? • Response to and impact on Where are we developing our cities? • Vulnerable locations Population growth & rural‐urban migration Transformation of pre‐development landscape Contributing to and recipient of climate change impacts Urban micro‐climate
- 5. Introduction The urban micro‐climate Altered Surfaces Urban Island Heat Effect 2° C to 5° C warmer air Causes: • Weather • Geographic location • Time of day and season • city form • city functions Impacts: • Human comfort • Energy use • Air pollution • Water use • Biological activity
- 6. Introduction Climate Change Assumption that climate change will happen Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC per yr.) Historic Emissions Increasing emissions Probable global 4° C warmer climate by end of century Augments existing problems Uncertainty Time (Yr.) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center International Energy Agency Compounded effect on A1B A1T B1 A1FI A2 B2 micro‐climates
- 7. Introduction Urban Places as Contributors to climate change World green house emissions flow chart (world Resources Institute, 2005) Direct Contribution by cities 10.5% 10.2% 06.3% 27.0% In addition: indirect contribution from other sectors: landfills, building materials, food transport, etc.
- 8. Introduction Urban Places as Recipients of Climate Change Impacts General Climate change impacts • Rising Sea level • Erratic precipitation regimes • Increased temperatures • Droughts Exasperating vulnerable communities problems: access to water, sanitation, etc. Probable 4° C warmer climate by end of century Augments existing problems Precursor for immediate action
- 9. Introduction Mitigation in urban places Adaptation in urban places Reduce sources of emissions Adjust systems to new = not place specific conditions Global Scale Local Scale Denser cities A new condition: Probable • Energy efficiency 4°C warmer climate by end of century • Reduce driving = public transport Augments existing problems • Green Infrastructure as CO2 Precursor for immediate sink action • Vegetate surfaces Context of cities • Technological solutions ‐ Should be done in a reduce energy use, efficient sustainable manner: cars, local renewable environmentally sensitive energies and inclusive
- 10. Introduction Where is adaptation as a planning process, acceptance, and action? Still lags behind mitigation Immediate investment Expensive Requires acceptance by communities, investments, justifications Requires buy‐in by politicians to act Urban vulnerable populations: the poor, least access, no services, etc. Can begin today, everyone can contribute While small actions are important what do they sum up to? • Need larger vision, targets, and performance benchmarks
- 11. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process Conventional land use & urban planning Tabula Rasa Approach: Little consideration to environment, climate, and local characteristics Basis: Transport economically based Zoning: Single use per zone Data for planning: predictable & certain Procedural process: 1)Recognition of need 2)Identify objectives 3)Research 4)plan formulation 5)plan implementation 6)monitor, review and revise. Conditions: static and predictive Planning time horizons: 5, 10, 20 years maximum
- 12. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process Adaptation Planning Process (As recommended by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences) 1) Identify current & future climate 4) Identify opportunities for co‐benefits changes relevant to the system and synergies across sectors 2) Assess vulnerabilities and risk to the 5) Implement adaptation options system 6) Monitor and reevaluate 3) Develop an adaptation strategy using implementation adaptation options risk‐based prioritization schemes
- 13. Climate Science & urban places Adaptation Policy Development (Boswell, Greve, & Seale, 2012) Local Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Plan Development and Implementation
- 14. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process Characteristics of the adaptation planning process Based on science, science as a starting point Uncertainty as a core value for work Planning usually defines an end state, in adaptation planning we may define a possible state Uncertainty of information Adaptive process: Flexibility, Iterative process Continuous monitoring long planning period, extends to 100 years Monitoring: Continuous update Indicator based rather than time based planning Multi‐ jurisdictional and multi‐scalar. Unclear financing possibilities
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- 18. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process Vulnerability Assessment, risk, and Exposure (City of Clarence, Australia) Risk: from what Exposure : location based Existing adaptation capacity Vulnerability Assessment: including climate projections
- 19. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process Vulnerable populations The urban poor: depends on how we measure: income, access to food and water, health, gender, etc. IPCC vulnerable communities: • Least able to avoid direct and indirect impacts • Likely to be most effected • Least able to cope health, loss of income, etc. Direct impacts: flooding, direct damage of dwellings, death. Indirect Impacts: less food, lower nutrition, access to even less water, loss of income Location of poor agglomerations within cities • Riskiest urban environments: low lying areas, flood plains, unstable slopes = most risk from climate change • Compounded effect of human congestion
- 20. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process Adaptation measures Less cost Mainstreaming No‐ regrets measures, delivering benefits that exceed their costs, whatever the extent of Intensity & cost of measures climate change Low‐regrets measures are low cost, and have potentially large benefits under climate change Win‐Win measures contribute to climate adaptation and also deliver other benefits Flexible measures are useful for dealing with uncertainties in the extent of longer‐term climate change One time, large scale measures/investments, in response to large scale risks beyond More cost Transformative projections, immediate and targeted benefits
- 21. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region How much adaptation has been done? SIMPLY NOTHING: No concerted effort; No Political will at national and regional levels. One of the most vulnerable areas to climate change Rising sea levels: 30‐100cm by 2100, effect 1.3% of population Reduced precipitation by at least 20% increasing temperatures: +2⁰C next 20years; +4⁰C by 2100 Biomass shift by 300‐500km if +1.5⁰C Resulting in • Dust storms, floods& droughts • Reduction of water availability and regeneration • Reduction in food production and supply by 40% (2080) • Loss of biodiversity • Worsening of human health • Increase in conflicts over resources
- 22. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region Population Growth and urbanization One of highest population growths: • Population in 2005: 320 Million, 56% urban • Projected population by 2050: 598 million, 66% urban Urban poor in 2005 is 30% of total population Slum growth from 1990‐2011 = 3.5% average Rural urban migration Urbanization • Expanding cities • Gentrification • Loss of productive land • Loss of water resources • Inequity in resource distribution
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- 24. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region Alexandria, Cairo Increasing population and poor Heavy Rains Low lying shoreline and land Old building stock Location of slums and poor in risk prone areas
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- 36. Concluding Remarks Adaptation Take away message Is a local initiative requires a multidisciplinary and flexible approaches Across multiple jurisdictional entities. Is spatially sensitive but not exclusive Can begin immediately with “no‐regrets” measures Intensified to transform livelihoods into sustainable and resilient assets. Comprehensive and incremental
- 37. Concluding Remarks Points to think about Doom and gloom approach OR an opportunity to improve places we live Livable cities: greening, walkable, energy efficiency, performance based etc. Cities as equitable places Plan long term, not dogmatic, but flexible to allow for change during the process = emerging results rather than prescriptive. How do we begin to make adaptation accepted, acted upon and transform it into realizable projects within the MENA region? How do we begin to become modest & move from paper to action?
- 38. The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning The MENA Context Yaser Abunnasr American University of Beirut University of Massachusetts Amherst [email protected] & [email protected] Second Regional Summer School September 30 to October 04, 2012 Amman, Jordan