STRATEGIQ Capital

STRATEGIQ Capital | Trade Tensions & Shutdown Weigh on Markets • U.S. equities fell as renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and an extended government shutdown weighed on sentiment, partly offset by early strength in AI-related stocks; safe-haven demand lifted gold and pushed Treasury yields lower. • European data confirmed continued softness, with weak industrial output in Germany, political instability in France, and soft UK housing data weighing on sentiment. The ECB signalled that inflation is nearing target, but growth prospects stay muted. • Japanese equities rallied, driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus and continued monetary easing following LDP leadership changes, though optimism faded as political uncertainty resurfaced. • Chinese and Hong Kong markets diverged, as soft Golden Week spending underscored sluggish domestic demand ahead of the upcoming policy meeting outlining the next five-year plan • South Africa’s Finance Minister and SARB Governor reaffirmed alignment on the inflation target, reinforcing policy credibility and anchoring expectations. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/daRmTntF To make sure you don't miss out on the latest updates, we invite you to subscribe to our weekly newsletter! 📧 https://lnkd.in/dAvdv9UW

STRATEGIQ Capital | Monthly Chartbook | September 2025 Global equities advanced in September, supported by easing US monetary policy and stabilisation in the US dollar. The MSCI World Index rose 3.2% MoM (+17.4% YTD), with tech and AI-related sectors leading returns. Emerging markets outperformed developed peers, with the MSCI EM Index up 7.2% MoM (+27.5% YTD), driven by Chinese equities and continued strength in precious metals. US 10-year bond yields edged lower to 4.15% p.a., reflecting expectations of further rate cuts in 2025–2026, while the US dollar stabilised after significant weakness earlier in the year. South African equities delivered their strongest month of 2025, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index +6.6% MoM and +31.7% YTD, driven largely by a sharp rally in precious metals. The SARB kept the prime lending rate steady at 10.5% p.a., while the 10-year government bond yield declined to 9.6%. The rand strengthened 3.5% MoM against the US dollar, making it one of the best-performing major currencies for the month. For more detailed insights on market performance and valuations, please refer to our September Chartbook.

STRATEGIQ Capital | Markets Remain Steady Amid U.S. Shutdown •  The US government shut down on 1 October after Congress failed to pass a funding bill, leading to the furlough of federal workers, suspension of non-essential services, and delays to major data releases including the September payrolls report, with the CPI release also at risk. • In the absence of payroll data, markets relied on ADP figures showing a 32,000 job loss versus expectations for a 51,000 gain; however, the weakness largely stemmed from data revisions rather than a genuine labour market deterioration, reinforcing expectations for further Fed rate cuts. • Euro area headline inflation rose to 2.2% year-on-year in September, driven by firmer services prices and a slower decline in energy costs, while core inflation held at 2.3%; the ECB maintained policy rates at 2%, with President Lagarde noting balanced inflation risks. • The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged to support accommodative conditions amid US tariff volatility, while China’s manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.8 and non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0, indicating persistent economic softness into Q3. •  In South Africa, manufacturing sentiment improved as the Absa PMI rose to 52.2 in September on stronger domestic demand, though formal employment declined in Q2 2025, reflecting ongoing strain in the labour market. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/dpBzEyRd To make sure you don't miss out on the latest updates, we invite you to subscribe to our weekly newsletter! 📧 https://lnkd.in/dAvdv9UW

STRATEGIQ Capital | Softer Jobs keep Fed on Rate-Cut Path •  U.S. equities rose, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq reaching record highs before easing slightly, while the Russell 2000 extended its six-week winning streak on optimism around AI and anticipated Fed rate cuts, amid softer jobs data and moderate inflation. • In Europe, the ECB left rates unchanged but raised growth and inflation forecasts, while economic data were mixed across Germany and the UK, and political uncertainty persisted in France. • Japan saw strong Q2 GDP growth and record Nikkei gains, supported by AI-driven rallies, while China’s CPI fell but core inflation rose, reflecting uneven economic signals. • Global markets broadly advanced, aided by liquidity, technology optimism, and improved sentiment, with commodities and Bitcoin gaining, while bond markets were mostly stable. • South Africa’s economy expanded 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, with broad-based growth supported by manufacturing, mining, trade, and stronger household consumption, though momentum in manufacturing and building confidence eased. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/dVbpPHsS To make sure you don't miss out on the latest updates, we invite you to subscribe to our weekly newsletter! 📧 https://lnkd.in/dAvdv9UW

STRATEGIQ Capital | Soft US Jobs Data Boosts Fed Cut Bets •  US jobs data for August came in well below expectations, with only 22,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, heightening concerns over slowing growth while strengthening the case for near-term Fed rate cuts. •  In response, US Treasury yields fell to 4.07%, the lowest level in five months, while futures markets priced in a 100% probability of a 25bps cut at the Fed’s next meeting and also reflected some expectations of a larger 50bps move. •  In Europe, equities softened as concerns over global growth persisted and a strengthening euro, while inflation edged up to 2.1% and unemployment eased slightly to 6.2%, leaving the ECB widely expected to keep rates unchanged. •  In Asia, Japanese markets rose on improved trade prospects, while in China, equities were mixed as profit-taking weighed on the mainland, and Hong Kong stocks advanced. •  In South Africa, foreign reserves rose above $65.9bn, providing support to the rand and government bonds, while broader investor sentiment towards emerging markets improved on the back of a weaker US dollar. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/dWEreBVR To make sure you don't miss out on the latest updates, we invite you to subscribe to our weekly newsletter! 📧 https://lnkd.in/dAvdv9UW

STRATEGIQ Capital | Monthly Chartbook | August 2025 Developed market equities continued to advance in August, with the MSCI World Index up 2.6% MoM and 13.8% YTD. Healthcare led sector gains, while US small-caps also rebounded. Emerging market equities (+1.3% MoM) trailed developed markets but remain strong YTD (MSCI EM +19.0%), led by Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares (+27.8% YTD). US bond yields declined following weaker-than-expected employment data. The US dollar weakened again in August after a brief rebound in July, and has now fallen in seven of the first eight months of 2025, leaving the US Dollar Index down 10% YTD. South African equities delivered a sixth consecutive positive month, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index up 3.5% MoM and 23.6% YTD, driven by gains in the precious metals sector. Inflation ticked slightly higher, with core inflation at 3.0% YoY and headline inflation at 3.5% YoY. The 10-year government bond yield eased to 9.6%, and the rand strengthened by 3.5% MoM, supported by a weaker US dollar. For more detailed insights on market performance and valuations, please refer to our August Chartbook.

STRATEGIQ Capital | US GDP Surpasses Expectations •  US GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than initially estimated, supported by robust business investment in intellectual property, including AI. • Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, rose to 2.9% year-on-year, showing that underlying price pressures remain persistent. • ECB minutes signalled caution, with policymakers noting risks from slower growth, tariffs, and currency movements. • UK retail sales continued to decline, while shop prices rose sharply, highlighting ongoing cost pressures for consumers. • In South Africa, production costs increased, pushing PPI higher, while the trade surplus narrowed slightly from the previous month. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/d3dPEfSe To make sure you don't miss out on the latest updates, we invite you to subscribe to our weekly newsletter! 📧 https://lnkd.in/dAvdv9UW

STRATEGIQ Capital | Federal Reserve Signals Dovish Shift • U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish tone at the Jackson Hole Symposium, highlighting downside risks to employment amid a slowing labour market and acknowledging tariffs are adding upward pressure to consumer prices. He indicated that the evolving balance of risks may justify a policy adjustment, leading markets to price in a higher probability of an interest-rate cut next month. • UK annual inflation rose to the highest level in 18 months, driven by food and airfare costs, while services inflation also increased. • Japanese inflation strengthened, supporting expectations of a BoJ rate hike, with bond yields reaching multi-year highs. • Mainland Chinese stocks rallied amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions, with retail investors driving demand and margin debt rising to its highest since 2015. • South Africa’s CPI accelerated, driven by food and fuel, while progress in rail reforms involving private operators is expected to enhance network efficiency and support economic growth. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/dPUQ_YVA To make sure you don't miss out on the latest updates, we invite you to subscribe to our weekly newsletter! 📧 https://lnkd.in/dAvdv9UW

STRATEGIQ Capital | Markets Rise on Growing Fed Cut Expectations •  US markets ended higher on expectations the Fed is nearing rate cuts, with futures pricing nearly 90% odds for September; softer headline inflation, firm retail sales, and stable labour data supported sentiment despite sticky core prices. • UK GDP beat expectations though household pressures persisted, eurozone growth stalled with weak output and confidence. •  In Asia, China’s data pointed to slowing momentum and persistent deflationary pressures, while Japan outperformed with stronger-than-expected GDP, rising producer prices, and higher bond yields amid expectations of potential rate increases. •  Geopolitical risks stayed elevated as Ukraine rejected Russian demands and Russia’s banking sector showed further stress from sanctions • In South Africa, unemployment rose slightly to 33.2%, manufacturing activity improved, and retail sales softened. Meanwhile, the government advanced discussions on ArcelorMittal’s Newcastle mill and introduced a new infrastructure credit-guarantee scheme. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/dEq2_zn3 To make sure you don't miss out on the latest updates, we invite you to subscribe to our weekly newsletter! 📧 https://lnkd.in/dAvdv9UW

STRATEGIQ Capital | Monthly Chartbook | July 2025 Global equity markets posted further gains in July, with developed markets (MSCI World Index) rising 1.29% month‑on‑month to take YTD returns to 10.88%. US mega‑cap technology stocks outperformed, led by Nvidia after the US lifted its AI chip ban to China and peers announced increased AI investment. Emerging markets (MSCI EM Index) added 1.95%, supported by Chinese equities on signs of housing market support. The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but maintained a hawkish tone, lifting the US dollar and pushing global bond yields higher. In South Africa, the local equity market (FTSE/JSE All Share Index) advanced 2.27% in July, taking year‑to‑date gains to 19.35%. Precious metal miners were the primary drivers, supported by strength in platinum, gold, rhodium, and palladium prices, while the telecommunications sector also delivered robust gains. The South African Reserve Bank implemented a 25‑basis‑point policy rate cut, lowering the prime lending rate to 10.5% and easing long‑term funding costs. The rand depreciated against the US dollar as the greenback posted its first monthly gain in seven months, though it remains weaker on a year‑to‑date basis, while the domestic 10‑year bond yield closed at 9.64%. For more detailed insights on market performance and valuations, please refer to our July Chartbook.