WORLD GROWTH OUTLOOK
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Charting the Global Economy: Gold soars amid US-China tensions
Gold and silver prices rallied this week amidst escalating trade tensions, though silver experienced a significant Friday tumble. The IMF noted temporary relief in global growth, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain.
In China, global companies struggle as home-grown brands steal thunder
Global giants are grappling with the complexities of the Chinese market. Economic downturns and tepid consumer spending are compelling brands like BMW and IKEA to innovate and rethink their strategies. As local competitors swiftly rise, claiming significant portions of the market, the landscape is becoming increasingly competitive.
IT sector faces slower growth despite AI buzz; midcap firms better placed: Nitin Raheja
India is not yet participating in the global AI rally. Consumption is expected to remain a key growth driver. Financials are poised for an earnings revival, with private banks and select PSU banks offering attractive opportunities. Midcap IT companies may benefit from AI transitions. The market anticipates a supportive backdrop for growth.
US stock market today: Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq advance despite US-China trade tensions — top gainers Nvidia, TSMC, Salesforce, and big banks lift Wall Street
US stock market today, October 16, surged despite fresh US-China trade tensions. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all moved higher. Nvidia, TSMC, Salesforce, and big banks led the rally with strong earnings and AI-driven growth. J.B. Hunt jumped over 22%, lifting transportation stocks alongside. Traders focused on growth, earnings surprises, and rising demand in the semiconductor and AI sectors.
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Global shocks no worry, India stays investors’ darling: S&P Global Ratings President Yann Le Pallec
India's economy is poised for strong growth, with S&P Global Ratings projecting expansion around 6.5% this year and 7% in the next two. The nation is seen as resilient to global trade shocks and geopolitical risks. Global investors view India as an attractive destination for stable, long-term growth opportunities. This outlook supports India's economic trajectory.
Infosys beats street, Q2 net rises 13% to Rs 7,364 crore
India's second largest software exporter also narrowed its revenue estimates for the fiscal year by lifting the lower end of the growth guidance, to 2-3% from 1-3% in constant currency, which excludes the impact of currency movements. This is a further improvement from the previous quarter, when it tweaked the outlook from the earlier 0-3% growth. It retained the operating margin guidance of 20-22%.
Trump tariffs: India's smart strategy could be working
US tariffs have impacted Indian exports, causing a sharp decline. However, India is actively diversifying its export markets and striking new trade deals. This strategy is showing positive results, with some sectors experiencing growth. While challenges remain, this situation presents an opportunity for India to build a more robust and balanced export portfolio for long-term prosperity.
TSMC expects AI megatrend to strengthen, as profit blows past forecasts
TSMC reported a 39.1% surge in Q3 profit, marking its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, driven by the AI megatrend. The chip giant forecasts a strong Q4 with revenue up by as much as 24%, anticipating continued robust AI demand and maintaining its significant capital spending plans for 2025.
Goods exports up 6.7% in September, trade gap widens
September was a promising month for India's exports, showcasing their vibrancy amid global turbulence. However, with imports climbing at a quicker rate, the trade deficit has widened. Ongoing discussions surrounding U.S. tariffs are under scrutiny, while negotiations for a free trade agreement with the EU are in their final stages.
Trump tariffs to slow global growth to 3.2%; India's growth to stay strong with 6.6% in FY26: IMF report
India emerges as a bright spot in a slowing global economy, projected by the IMF to grow at 6.6% in 2025 despite rising US tariffs. While global output eases due to trade frictions and investment uncertainty, India's resilience is attributed to strong domestic consumption and policy stability.
The 'phoney trade war' may be ending
Businesses anticipate a more uncertain winter. Trade and economic volatility are expected to rise. Government data is unclear due to recent shutdowns. Major economic releases may coincide. Global trade growth forecasts are slashed. Small business sentiment is falling. Financial markets are experiencing renewed volatility. Key events and deadlines loom, including tariff cliffs and corporate earnings reports.
R. Gandhi says IMF’s growth upgrade a ‘balancing act’ amid tariff uncertainty
The IMF raised its global growth outlook to 3.2%, but former RBI Deputy Governor R. Gandhi described it as a "balancing act." He noted the IMF's cautious commentary on trade frictions and tariffs contrasts with its optimistic numerical projections. Gandhi emphasized India's domestic-driven resilience and the challenges for manufacturing growth.
IMF raises India’s FY26 growth outlook to 6.6%
The International Monetary Fund has increased India's economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2026 to 6.6 percent. This positive outlook comes despite recent US tariffs on Indian goods. India is projected to achieve the highest growth rate among advanced economies, emerging markets, and developing countries for the current and next fiscal years.
IMF ups Saudi Arabia's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4% as oil output rises
The International Monetary Fund has brightened its 2025 economic outlook for Saudi Arabia, now pegging growth at 4 percent. This optimistic shift is attributed to the kingdom's quicker withdrawal from oil production restrictions than previously thought. Experts suggest this could catalyze economic vitality across the broader Middle East and Central Asia region.
European growth to hold up but at an increasing fiscal cost, IMF says
The IMF forecasts euro zone growth to hold at 1.2% this year despite U.S. tariffs, but warns this comes with higher government spending and rising debt. While exporters have shown resilience, the IMF notes increasing signs of protectionism's adverse effects and a more fragmented global economy.
IMF upgrades US growth outlook as Trump's tariffs cause less disruption than expected
The IMF has slightly raised its global and U.S. economic growth forecasts for this year, citing that Trump administration tariffs have been less disruptive than initially feared. While economies have shown resilience, the full impact of trade policies is still unfolding, with potential for future price hikes and emerging downsides.
Trump's latest China tariff brinkmanship clouds IMF, World Bank meetings
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday sought to walk back the threat, telling Fox Business Network that he believed the Trump-Xi meeting would proceed and that there would be U.S.-China staff-level meetings this week on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank gathering. "The 100% tariff does not have to happen," Bessent said. "The relationship, despite this announcement last week, is good. Lines of communication have reopened, so we'll see where it goes."
Steel demand in India set to grow 9% in 2025, 2026
India's steel demand is set for strong growth. Consumption will rise by 9% in both 2025 and 2026. This surge is fueled by all sectors using steel. Globally, demand is expected to be flat this year. However, India's production is already growing. This positive trend is driven by infrastructure and housing projects.
Realty developer TARC Ltd reports Rs 565 crore sales in H1 FY2026
TARC Ltd has achieved Rs 565 crore in sales and Rs 364 crore in collections for H1 FY2026. The company is planning new luxury and ultra-luxury projects. These developments will feature collaborations with renowned architects and consultants. TARC is confident in delivering value to stakeholders with its strong pipeline and financials. The luxury housing market shows enduring demand.
TCS bets big on AI and data centres; every project will be AI-led, says CEO K Krithivasan
Tata Consultancy Services is aggressively integrating AI across its operations, aiming to become the world's largest AI-led tech services provider. The company is investing in platforms, training over 1.6 lakh employees, and expanding into data centres and sovereign cloud. Nearly every client project now features an AI component, driving efficiency and value.
U.S. economy slipping into recession amidst Federal government shutdown?
U.S. tariff rates keep changing and U.S. inflation could rise if companies started to pass through more of the cost of tariffs, or if a flood of goods previously headed for the U.S. triggered a second round of tariff hikes elsewhere, IMF stated.
WTO slashes global 2026 goods growth forecast, ups for 2025
The World Trade Organization has significantly lowered its 2026 global merchandise trade volume growth forecast to 0.5%, citing delayed impacts from U.S. tariffs. While concerned, the WTO notes resilience in the rules-based system. The 2025 forecast was upgraded to 2.4% due to U.S. import front-loading and AI goods trade.
World Bank lifts China 2025 GDP forecast to 4.8% ahead of a slowdown next year
The World Bank has boosted its 2025 growth forecast for China to 4.8 percent. However, it anticipates a slowdown next year. This is due to lower consumer and business confidence. Weak new export orders are also a concern. The East Asia and Pacific region's growth is also projected to rise. This outlook highlights a mixed economic picture ahead.
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