REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO.14
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 14 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 96 HOURS ISSUED AT 2200 UTC OF 12.06.2019 BASED ON 1800 UTC
OF 12.06.2019.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘VAYU’ (PRONOUNCED AS VAA’YU) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KMPH IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 12TH
JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.7°N AND LONGITUDE 69.7°E OVER EASTCENTRAL &
ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 340 KM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003)
(MAHARASHTRA), 150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND 210
KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PORBANDAR (42830) (GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG SAURASHTRA
COAST AFFECTING AMRELI, GIR SOMNATH, DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR, RAJKOT,
JAMNAGAR, DEVBHOOMI DWARKA AND KUTCH DISTRICTS OF GUJARAT WITH WIND
SPEED 155-165 KMPH GUSTING TO 180 KMPH LIKELY FROM AFTERNOON OF 13TH JUNE
2019 .
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position Maximum sustained Category of cyclonic
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E) surface wind speed (Kmph) disturbance
12.06.19/1800 19.7/69.7 145-155 gusting to 170 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.06.19/0000 20.4/69.5 150-160 gusting to 175 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.06.19/0600 20.8/69.4 155-165 gusting to 180 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.06.19/1200 21.2/69.3 155-165 gusting to 180 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.06.19/1800 21.5/69.1 140-150 gusting to 165 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
14.06.19/0600 21.9/68.7 130-140 gusting to 155 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
14.06.19/1800 22.1/68.3 110-120 gusting to 135 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.06.19/0600 22.2/68.0 110-120 gusting to 135 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.06.19/1800 22.2/67.8 100-110 gusting to 125 Severe Cyclonic Storm
REMARKS:
TH
AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1800 UTC ON 12 JUNE, 2019 THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IS T4.5 WITH AN EMBEDDED EYE PATTERN. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN BET LAT 15°N TO 21°N LONG 65.5°E TO 70.5°E.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93° C.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. THE
SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 978 HPA.
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1 FOR NEXT
3 DAYS. THEREAFTER, IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1 AND
REMAIN IN SAME PHASE FOR SUBSEQUENT 4 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE
FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER ARABIAN
SEA.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS
31˚C OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA. IT DECREASES TO 29-30˚C NEAR GUJARAT
2
COAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND (70-90) KJ/CM OVER THE SYSTEM
2 0
AREA. IT IS LESS THAN 60 KJ/CM TO THE NORTH OF 20 N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOUR
IMAGERIES INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
-5 -1
THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY INCREASED AND IS AROUND 300 X10 SEC AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. POSITIVE VORTICITY PERSISTS UPTO 20 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL
-5 -1
CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 X10 S TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER
-5 -1
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 X10 S TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE TO HIGH (10-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 21° N. AS THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESWARD DIRECTION AND IS LIKELY TO FURTHER CONTINUE
MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION.
(Naresh Kumar)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’
(19.7°N, 69.7°E)
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
