CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDIA: IMPACT AND MITIGATION

Introduction

Climate change refers to lasting alterations in temperatures and weather patterns. These changes
can either be a result of natural phenomenon or human activities. Anthropogenic burning of fossil
fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas causes emissions. Carbon dioxide and methane are often
mentioned as greenhouse gases which envelope the earth and trap the sun’s heat, thereby
increasing the global temperatures.

As India is a developing country with a growing population, its developmental needs are large. To
that end, for India to drastically reduce its industrial activities, which is one of the primary sources of
climate change, is challenging. However, these anthropogenic activities must be minimized to the
extent possible. Failing that, India could (and already does) experience erratic rainfall patterns,
disturbed water cycles and frequency of extreme weather event like cyclones, floods or droughts.

The implications of such events will reflect foremost on India’s agricultural sector, threatening food
security, forests and natural water resources like lakes, rivers and groundwaters. Ultimately, the
resultant impact would be disastrous for common Indians. The pace of development would reduce,
setting back the efforts of economic growth by a large extent.

Implications of Climate Change for India

Indian agriculture is susceptible to the risks of climate change. This is a cause for immense concern
as 58% of Indians rely on the sector. It also has multiplier effects in terms of food security,
employment and migration patterns. With over 65% of agricultural land being rainfed, unreliable
precipitation, heatwaves, floods or droughts can considerably lessen agricultural production.
Projections estimate that irrigated rice yields are to reduce by 7% in 2050 and 10% in 2080.
Meanwhile, wheat yield is projected to reduce by 6 to 25% in 2100 and maize yields by 18 to 23%.

Estimates from a study conducted by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) 1 points out
the climate change risk as ‘very high’ for 109 districts in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Kerala,
Uttarakhand, Odisha and Punjab.

Over the last hundred years, India has experienced a 0.4-degree centigrade increase in the mean
surface temperature. Rainfall from the southwest monsoon (June to September) over India has
contracted by approximately 6% from 1951 to 2015, with notable decreases over the Indo-Gangetic
Plains and the Western Ghats. There have been more frequent dry spells and more intense wet
spells. This trend projects that by the end of 2100, there is to be a disturbing increase in monsoon
precipitation as well as daily precipitation extremes.

Climate model projections indicate a high likelihood of increase in the intensity and area under
drought conditions in India by the end of the twenty-first century. Additionally, the frequency of very
severe cyclonic storms (VSCSs) during the post-monsoon season has also increased significantly (+1
event per decade) during the last two decades (2000–2018) 2. As per estimates, there would be a rise
in intensity of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean basin by the close of the 21 st century.

Main Implications: At A Glance

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  Rise in average temperature- Increased cooling demand would lead to greater emissions
perpetuating the vicious cycle of climate change.
 Decrease in monsoon rainfall- This will change vegetative cover, affect availability of fodder,
fuel-wood and minor forest produce.
 Increase of extreme weather events: Floods, droughts, severe cyclones would damage
infrastructure and harm the economy.
 Sea level rise and salinization- Would be likely to affect fish breeding, migration and harvest,
reducing incomes in the fisheries sector.
 Consequences for biodiversity- Due to disruption in food chain the survivability of various
species would become suspect.
 Risks to human health – Heat strokes, cardiovascular diseases, neurological diseases and
mental stress, particularly among children and elderly.
 Economically vulnerable sections face greater risks of vector-borne diseases, unaffordable
food and water.
 Risks to India’s densely populated coastal cities from sea-level rise leading to land erosion
and subsidence, environmental migration and damage t infrastructure.

Policy Relevant Measures

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) covers eight national missions in a holistic manner
to address climate change:

 National Solar Mission

 National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

 National Mission on Sustainable Habitat

 National Water Mission

 National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem

 National Mission for A Green India

 National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture

 National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

Launched in 2008, the progress made on these missions has been slow and must be expedited.

Measures to be taken:

Climate change impacts will vary across India based on local conditions of geography and climate.
The first step would be to formulate detailed, regional-scale climate change risk assessments. This
would help to reduce vulnerability in a sector-specific way.

Improving energy efficiency through programs such as PAT 3 (Perform, Achieve, Trade) scheme which
reduces energy use per unit of production for Designated Consumers (DCs) in energy intensive
sectors and the Market Transformation for Energy Efficiency (MTEE) which encourages the shift to
energy efficient appliances in designated sectors through incentives and innovative business models.

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Coal is the most important and abundant fossil fuel in India. 4 It accounts for 55% of the country's
energy need. However, to meet its vast power requirements and reduce fossil fuel usage, a
diversification of energy sources in favour of renewables such as solar, wind and hydro power. As
per the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, the renewable energy sector is expected to
contribute nearly six times its existing emission reduction capability in future.

International efforts to address climate change are guided by the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its two instruments, namely the Paris Agreement and
the Kyoto Protocol. India is party to UNFCCC and it’s both the instruments. In the recently held COP
265 at Glasgow, India committed to its net zero target in the year 2070. It further pledged the
following in its policy towards tackling climate change:

 India will reach its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030.

 India will meet 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030.
 India will reduce the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes from now
onwards till 2030.
 By 2030, India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by less than 45 percent.

Planning Commission’s Low Carbon Committee Report, 2014 has suggested a few mitigation
measures:

 All states and urban local bodies to mandate ECBC for commercial buildings and residential
apartments. Approximately 131 MtCO2 emissions can be avoided in 2030.
 Inventories of GHG gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 to be prepared and
reported annually.

India has already announced ambitious plans of achieving energy efficiency and reaching 175 Giga
Watt of renewable energy by 2022. However, the real policy measure that should be taken is to have
a localised approach to India’s climate vulnerability.

Investment in afforestation measures, local outreach and communication of climate change risk to
district and village-level communities would enable water-harvesting and farming decisions are
needed to adapt to a changing climate.

There also must be a concerted effort at all educational levels to improve awareness about the risks
to climate change. In order to tackle climate change, policies drawing in all sectors, must be
adopted.

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References:

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assessments

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