Sediment Modeling for Hagonoy Flooding Solutions
Sediment Modeling for Hagonoy Flooding Solutions
A Research
Presented to the
By:
AGULTO, JOSHUA
Introduction
normally dry land meaning that water is going where it should not be. It happens because of the
river overflows that happens during Typhoons and the southwest monsoon rain prevailing over
the islands during the rainy season. River overflow can be primarily attributed to unfavorable
channel characteristics, such as steep gradients and meandering patterns in the lower parts of the
river (Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources). It is a problem that is faced by anyone near a
body of water all over the world. Places like Cambodia, China, Pakistan, and Vietnam, to name a
few, experience flooding throughout the year. The places that are affected by flooding have one
thing in common, they are all close to different bodies of water. Such is true for the country of
the Philippines.
Flooding is one of the most common and severe hazards disrupting people’s lives and
livelihoods around the world. About 1.47 billion, or 19% of the world population, are directly
Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster deaths worldwide and were responsible
for 6.8 million deaths in the 20th century. Asia is the most flood-affected region, accounting for
nearly 50% of flood-related fatalities in the last quarter of the 20th century (National Institutes of
Health).
It is a prevalent issue in the Philippines affecting every region, neighborhood, and
several low-lying regions of the country. It is no stranger to the powerful forces of nature.
Typhoons, in particular, are a formidable and recurring challenge that the country confronts
year-round. The nation is especially susceptible to cyclones due to its position in the
Northwestern Pacific Basin, recognized as the world's most active tropical cyclone region. To
further expand upon this, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and
tropical cyclones because of its geographical positioning. This geographical location typically
gives rise to substantial rainfall. Additionally, these cyclones are accompanied by powerful
winds that can result in significant human casualties and extensive damage to agricultural crops
and properties.
locally known as “Hanging Habagat”, rains that sweep across the islands during the rainy season.
The way rain falls in Southeast Asia is influenced by the region's topography and the prevailing
surface winds that accompany the monsoon seasons. The Philippines, in particular, has mountain
ranges that generally run from north to south along its eastern and western coasts. Consequently,
during the East Asian winter monsoon, which begins in November, northeasterly winds bring
moisture to the eastern coasts while making the western coasts relatively dry. Conversely, the
rainy season commences around May when the western North Pacific subtropical high-pressure
system shifts northeastward, allowing the Asian summer monsoon to usher in southwesterly
winds that bring rainfall across the Philippines (Villafuerte, Matsumoto, Takaahashi, Kubota &
Cinco, 2014). The elongated periods of typhoons and monsoons raise the water levels at various
tends to experience this quite frequently. Such is true for a certain municipality in the province of
Bulacan, a town called Hagonoy. It is situated along the coast in Bulacan. It covers a land area of
103.10 square kilometers or 39.81 square miles, accounting for approximately 3.70% of
Bulacan's total land area. According to the 2020 Census, the population of Hagonoy stood at
133,448 residents. This population figure represents 3.60% of Bulacan province's total
population and constitutes approximately 1.07% of the entire population of the Central Luzon
region. Based on these statistics, the population density of Hagonoy is calculated at 1,294
inhabitants per square kilometer or 3,352 inhabitants per square mile (PhilAtlas).
water in Pampanga and Angat River, and Hagonoy River. Furthermore, due to high tide, many
low-lying places in the municipality flood all year. To add to that, the water released from the
nearby Angat and Ipo Dams also cannot be held by the Bustos Dam, which caused the latter to
overflow. The raging waters come down the Pampanga River (as its catch basin) and travel along
different barangays on its path, including those in Hagonoy. With just a little downpour, the
whole first-class municipality turns into a body of water. When experiencing floods, the waters
are often deep enough to reach the interior of people’s homes. The areas in Hagonoy, even
though the waters caused by typhoons may have subsided from the rest of the town, the shanty
And based on local reports, the Municipality has been experiencing this for quite
some time now. Such is the latest well-known case, as of the time of writing, for Typhoon Egay
which occurred only in 2023. The municipality also had similar cases during the past years, and
Philippines. During the devastation brought upon by Typhoon Ulysses, the release of water from
Magat Dam in North Luzon, among other factors, was blamed for flooding in Cagayan and
Isabela provinces (Klippe, 2020). On Nov. 12, 2020, from 5 p.m. to 4 a.m. the next day, seven
gates of the dam were opened, PAGASA said that 6,706 cubic meters of water per second were
released from the dam at maximum discharge. This caused the Cagayan River to swell and
This event prompted a study of this behavior called the Integrated Flood and
Sediment Management in River basin for susTainable development (FSMaRT). It is a project led
by Assoc. Prof. Sameh Ahmed Kantoush, From Kyoto University, started in 2021. It is done to
formulate the core concept of the project; it is imperative to begin by identifying and
emphasizing the challenges and issues present within the river basin. These challenges serve as
the foundational framework upon which the project's objectives and solutions were built.
They proposed various tools that can help assess the situation that happened in
Cagayan such as using various software to predict how the release of water can prevent the kind
of flooding that happened before. Including that software were TELEMAC and Soil and Water
Assessing Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a software assessing climate change impacts on streamflow
and TELEMAC is used to estimate sediment transport. With such tools in tow the researchers
help alleviate the flooding problems that it has been facing. The focal point of this study lies in
the endeavor to simulate sediment accumulation within the rivers of Hagonoy, Bulacan. The
primary objective of this study is to utilize this simulation as a foundational element for the
General Problem:
Specific Problems:
2. How can TELEMAC models be calibrated and validated for the study area
Hagonoy, Bulacan?
This study aims to utilize hydrodynamic modeling to understand the patterns of sediment
accumulation in Hagonoy, Bulacan rivers and to propose effective flood intervention strategies
tool.
2. To evaluate the impact of sediment accumulation on the river’s hydrodynamics and its
3. To propose effective and sustainable flood intervention strategies based on the insights
The study will be useful in Hagonoy, Bulacan as this research will propose an
intervention to mitigate the flood that is often experienced in the city. The use of TELEMAC
models will help identify the critical locations and factors that need to be improved within the
Local Officials. Valuable information, insights, and recommendations from this study
can be used by the local officials to identify specific areas in Hagonoy, Bulacan, that are more
vulnerable to flooding due to sedimentation. This information can allow local officials to
prioritize these areas for targeted intervention and flood management strategies as well as offer
insights into the long-term trends of sediment accumulation, allowing officials to develop
Residents. Residents from the area will benefit from this study when the proposed
intervention to mitigate the flood is implemented. It can educate the local community about flood
risks associated with sediment accumulation. This knowledge can empower its residents to take
proactive measures for their safety and encourages community participation in flood
preparedness initiatives.
Future Researchers. This study will benefit future researchers as it will contribute to the
Hagonoy, Bulacan. Furthermore, this study can pave the way for future studies about using
the flood-prone rivers of Hagonoy, Bulacan. Utilizing TELEMAC software, the project aims to
simulate water flow and sediment transport, proposing interventions based on the model
outcomes.
The focus is specifically on the rivers within Hagonoy, Bulacan, specifically the
Labangan Channel that spans the municipality. Consideration will be given solely to sediment
accumulation resulting from natural processes, excluding human activities such as mining or
dumping. The analysis will be confined to the period from 2010 to 2020, encompassing recent
Definition of Terms
Catch Basin - A geographical area or basin that collects and contains water,
Channel Mesher - refers to a specific feature or tool used for mesh generation in
manageable pieces.
Flood - rising and overflowing of a body of water, such as rivers or oceans, onto
Flood Prediction- The use of scientific and meteorological data to forecast and
cells.
watersheds.
Introduction
In this chapter, it encompasses all relevant readings, literature, and studies related to the
field of study. The relevant readings on this chapter provide information about various attempts
of agencies and officials to address how flood intervention strategies are implemented in the
country and municipality during recent times. Some other relevant topics discussed in relevant
literature includes; how recurring issues of river overflow affect the severity of flooding in
municipalities in the Philippines, impacts of flooding on the livelihood of the residents, various
flood risk management strategies and its importance for flood mitigations, concept of
hydrodynamic modeling as an essential tool for flood risk assessment, its strengths and
limitations, and the role of TELEMAC as modeling software in assessing environmental impact
and hydrodynamics. Some other relevant studies are being discussed in the relevant studies
section which have identical objectives to this research study, including the utilization of
modeling software as a basis for flood risk assessment and interventions. The information
presented in this chapter has been carefully compiled through the researchers' thorough
examination of pertinent readings, literature, and studies published and available on the internet,
and carefully analyzed each of it as it would be relevant to achieve the primary objective of this
study.
Relevant Theories
of particles that are hanging in a fluid. While it wasn't explicitly developed for the transport of
bed load, it established the groundwork for comprehending how particles move within fluids.
suspended in a fluid. It proposed that the motion of a particle suspended in a fluid is the result of
countless, random collisions with the fluid molecules. Considered the particle as subject to
manner. This motion is a consequence of the random thermal motion of the fluid molecules.
Thus, being relevant and evident that particles can and will move through river stream flow and
between the velocity of water and the size of sediment particles necessary for erosion,
transportation, and deposition. It was named after Filip Hjulström (1902–1982), is a graph used
by hydrologists and geologists to determine whether a river will erode, transport, or deposit
sediment. It is a valuable tool in sediment transport studies and helps in understanding the
dynamics of how water interacts with different sediment sizes. It provides insights into the
conditions under which erosion, transportation, and deposition of sediments occur in a flowing
of water within a specific region or watershed. It involves tracking the inputs, outputs, and
storage of water in a particular area over a defined period. The primary components of the water
balance equation include precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and changes in storage, such
Where:
P = Precipitation
ET = Evapotranspiration
R = Runoff
= Changes in storage
water entering a system (via precipitation), must be transferred into either evaporation,
transpiration, surface runoff (eventually reaching the channel and leaving in the form of river
empirical expression that explains the correlation among channel velocity, slope, and a friction
coefficient represented by Manning's n. This equation, in its basic form, delineates the balance of
energy between gravity and friction in a conduit. The widely employed version of Manning's
Here, Q denotes the flow rate in cubic feet per second (cfs), n stands for
Manning's roughness coefficient (dimensionless), A represents the flow area in square feet, R is
the hydraulic radius in feet, and S denotes the slope of the energy gradient in feet per foot.
Related Literature
These are the readings from various articles that the researchers have found related to the
susceptible to upstream flooding. In recent years, Hagonoy has been consistently battered by
seeking refuge in safer locations, class suspensions, health issues, disruptions to trade and
businesses, inaccessible transportation, loss of lives, and damage to properties and infrastructure.
The municipality faced another onslaught in 2023 when Typhoon Egay entered the Philippines,
intensifying the southwest monsoon and causing moderate to heavy rains. This led to tidal
re-entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (AOR), reinforcing the southwest monsoon and
bringing about another round of light to heavy rains. Following the rainfall induced by these
typhoons and monsoons, Hagonoy witnessed backflooding as water receded from neighboring
towns and provinces. The northern and central parts of Hagonoy were particularly hard-hit by
this phenomenon, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the municipality. It was declared
in the State of calamity on July 30, 2023, flooding many of its barangays for up to 3 feet deep.
This is just one of the latest cases that has happened and historically, it has experienced the worst
With Regards to climate change, The Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan
(DRRMP) for the period 2013-2018 in the Province of Bulacan was crafted with the aim of
preventing and effectively managing disasters in the region. The plan, recognizing the escalating
the need to confront and mitigate these challenges. The province has experienced a rise in
climate change. In further compliance with RA 10121, the Provincial Government took a
significant step by issuing Executive Order (EO) No. 17 of 2010. This executive order not only
reflects the province's dedication to disaster risk reduction but also signifies a renaming of the
Provincial Disaster Management Council and Provincial Disaster Management Office to the
Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and Provincial Disaster Risk
The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) Region III has
along the Calumpit River in Bulacan. This comprehensive cleanup, slated to commence this
month, is a strategic effort aimed at mitigating flooding incidents in low-lying areas and
expediting the rehabilitation of Manila Bay areas in Central Luzon. The head of the agency
highlighted that the cleanup of the Calumpit River system is not only crucial for reducing
flooding in the immediate area but will also yield positive impacts for other flood-prone towns in
Bulacan, including Hagonoy, Paombong, and certain parts of Malolos City. This initiative
the interconnectedness of water systems and the broader implications for neighboring regions.
The cleanup project aligns with broader goals of environmental sustainability and disaster risk
Hagonoy, the San Miguel Corporation (SMC) has taken significant steps by initiating the
planting of 190,000 mangrove seedlings across over 76 hectares in the province. Notably, this
initiative comes at no cost to the government. The Department of Environment and Natural
Resources (DENR) has identified this project as a priority, emphasizing the importance of
mangrove planting in flood-prone areas. The strategic placement of these mangrove seedlings is
expected to yield substantial benefits in addressing flooding issues and mitigating the impact of
rising sea levels attributed to the adverse effects of climate change and global warming. This
initiative is particularly crucial for Hagonoy, a low-lying town that consistently grapples with
floods during high tide. Once these thousands of mangrove seedlings mature, they are anticipated
to serve as a natural barrier, offering protection against flooding and contributing to the overall
resilience of the area. The partnership between SMC and the DENR underscores the significance
This ambitious endeavor, known as "The Pampanga River Floodway and San Antonio Swamp
Ring Dike," is set to commence from the mouth of the San Antonio Swamp and traverse seven
towns in Pampanga, including Arayat, Santa Ana, Mexico, Santo Tomas, Minalin, Macabebe,
and Masantol. Envisioned as a major flood control project for 2024, this initiative is poised to
make a significant contribution towards addressing the persistent flooding issues in both Bulacan
and Pampanga. More than 40 towns in these provinces are expected to benefit from the
construction of this floodway. By strategically routing the floodway through key areas, the
project aims to efficiently manage and divert floodwaters, minimizing the impact on
Now, these are the various concepts, backed by relevant literature, that this study will
River overflow. For many municipalities in the Philippines, bodies of water provide not
only life for their residents but also economic opportunities. Across history, the role played by
rivers is an indispensable fact we could take in the development of the population. Nonetheless,
In 2020, in the middle of the onslaught of Typhoon Vamco (Ulysses), the infamous
Marikina River surpassed its 2009 record brought by Typhoon Ondoy – reaching 22 meters in
height (Elemia, 2020) and forcing thousands of individuals and families to evacuate due to the
flooding. In the same period, the heavy rainfall brought by Vamco forced dams in Northern
Luzon to release water, and the decision taken by Magat Dam caused intense floods to ravage
population centers across the provinces of Cagayan and Isabela. Both situations proved the
natural disaster attached to rivers overflowing their banks and submerging dry land nearby.
The study’s site of study, Hagonoy, is no stranger to cases of river overflows. In 1972,
Typhoon Rita (Gloring) hit Luzon and hit hard the Pampanga River basin causing flooding
across the island that was dubbed as the greatest since the Second World War. Floodwaters have
enabled the municipality of Hagonoy to be underwater for at least two months, sharing the
situation with at least 14 other provinces plus the National Capital Region. Before the 1978
arrival of another Typhoon Rita, locally known as Typhoon Kading, the government already had
planned to finish the Labangan Channel project ahead but was interrupted due to the typhoon.
The lack of the channel’s supposed benefits in avoiding another catastrophe proved to be fatal to
residents of Hagonoy, as an operator upstream in Angat Dam located in the town of Norzagaray
opened the dam’s floodgates too wide that resulting in a flash flood that killed several people
climate change, urbanization, land use change, and flood management practices. Climate change
is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events that can trigger
river overflow (IPCC, 2012). Urbanization can alter the hydrological characteristics of river
basins by increasing impervious surfaces, reducing infiltration capacity, and modifying drainage
networks (Kefi et al., 2020). Land use change can affect the runoff generation and sediment
transport processes in river basins by changing the vegetation cover, soil properties, and erosion
rates (Wang et al., 2016). Flood management practices can either mitigate or exacerbate river
forecasting systems, land use planning, and community participation (ADB, 2021).
In 2011, along with nearby Calumpit, Malolos, and Paombong, Hagonoy was also
submerged for days as rainfall from Typhoons Nesat and Nalgae (Pedring and Quiel in local
naming conventions, respectively) combined with water release from dams. News reports had
indicated floodwaters rose as high as 3.35 meters in these areas (Reyes-Estrobe & Orejas, 2011).
In 2018, several villages in Hagonoy and Calumpit were flooded for weeks due to back
floods from nearby provinces and water release from Bustos Dam. The provincial governor
declared a state of calamity in Bulacan and appealed for government agencies to help solve the
In 2020, Hagonoy also experienced flooding up to 1.8 meters due to Typhoon Vamco
(Ulysses), which caused heavy rains and river overflow. The situation prompted another
The resulting flooding and river overflow have cost the province already an estimated P1 billion
The frequent and prolonged flooding in Hagonoy has caused various adverse effects on
the lives and livelihoods of its residents, such as displacement, health risks, crop losses, income
reduction, and psychological stress. One possible solution is to adopt modern flood control
systems that are resilient and adaptable to the changing climate and landscape. For instance, Dr.
Andreas Klippe, Chair and President of Flood Control Asia RS Corp., suggested improving flood
warning systems and making the threat understood and informed to residents as passive solutions
to the flooding problem. He also cited an ideal lifespan of at least 50 years for these technologies
that can be used in similar cases in the future (Klippe, 2020). Another possible solution is to
restore and protect the natural ecosystems that can mitigate flooding, such as mangroves,
wetlands, and forests. These ecosystems can provide multiple benefits for the environment and
the society, such as reducing erosion and sedimentation, enhancing water quality and
([Link], 2014).
Sediment Accumulation. Sediment accumulation in rivers is a natural phenomenon that
stems from the erosion and transport of soil particles by water. This process, however, can be
construction, leading to an increase in the rate and volume of sediment accumulation. This has a
variety of detrimental impacts on river ecosystems and water quality (Ezugwu, 2013).
The morphology and stability of river channels can be significantly affected by excess
sediment accumulation. This can reduce their capacity to handle floods, thereby increasing the
risk of flooding. The deposition of sediment can elevate the riverbed, modify the flow patterns,
various strategies. These include restoring and protecting natural vegetation, implementing soil
conservation practices, regulating land use and water resources, and enhancing sediment
monitoring and modeling. Such strategies can help to enhance the environmental and
socio-economic benefits of rivers, such as water supply, biodiversity, recreation, and tourism
([Link], 2019).
Land Use. The relationship between flood behavior and land use is a critical area of
study in managing and mitigating flood risks. Research has shown that understanding this
relationship can lead to effective strategies for coping with floods and maximizing the use of
flood-prone lands. For instance, communities have been found to adapt their livelihoods to
seasonal flood, alternating between agriculture and fisheries depending on the season
risks in various regions. These models can help assess the extent, depth, duration, and frequency
of floods, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of different flood intervention strategies. Flood
models can be broadly classified into two main types: hydrodynamic models and machine
learning models.
Hydrodynamic models are based on the physical laws of fluid motion and sediment
transport. They require input data such as topography, land use, rainfall, river discharge, and
boundary conditions to simulate water flow and sediment dynamics in a river system.
Hydrodynamic models can provide detailed information on the spatial and temporal distribution
of flood variables, such as water depth, velocity, flood extent, and sediment concentration
sediment dynamics, water quality, and wave propagation (Hervouet, 2007). TELEMAC has been
applied in numerous engineering projects including coastal and maritime structures design,
fluvial hydraulics, pollutant dispersion studies, sediment transport, and dredging among others
Flood Risk Management. The coastal municipality of Hagonoy faces frequent and
severe flooding due to various factors such as its low-lying location, land subsidence, sea-level
rise, storm surges, heavy rainfall, and river overflow (Hoff, 2020). These factors affect not only
the physical environment but also the livelihoods and well-being of its residents who depend on
fishing and agriculture as their main sources of income. Therefore, there is a need for effective
and sustainable flood risk management strategies that can reduce the impacts of flooding and
One of the recent initiatives that aimed to address this need was a collaborative research
project by the University of the Philippines Diliman, Nelen & Schuurmans, and MUST that was
conducted in 2020. The project involved assessing the current and future flood hazards and
vulnerabilities in Hagonoy using hydrological models and participatory methods. Based on their
findings, they proposed several interventions that can help mitigate flood risks and improve
adaptive capacities such as restoring wetlands and mangroves, constructing flood barriers and
drainage systems, implementing early warning systems and evacuation plans, and promoting
alternative livelihoods and social protection schemes (Hoff et al., 2020). As of the time of this
research’s writing, the parties mentioned earlier in this paragraph have not made any statements
Related Studies
Related Studies
A study conducted by Mahmod, Han, Ijaz, Siyal, Ahmad, & Yousaf published in 2022
investigated the geomorphic changes in an alluvial stretch of the Indus River, specifically
focusing on the section below Kotri barrage in Pakistan. These resulted in floods, typically
occurring from late July to mid-September due to monsoon rains in the upper catchments of the
Indus basin, have carried significant amounts of sediment from the Tarbela dam's catchment to
the downstream floodplain, eventually contributing to the Indus delta's sediment load. They
emphasized that channel erosion, sediment transportation, and deposition are critical factors
affecting river morphology under varying flow conditions. The introduction of barrages and the
Tarbela dam has altered the river's flow patterns, leading to sediment trapping and degradation of
They used the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic modeling suite and a combination of ground and
remote sensing data, their study revealed significant degradation in the river's morphology due to
reduced flows and hydrological extremes. The excessive deposition of approximately 4.3 billion
cubic meters of sediment has elevated the channel bed, leading to a 17.75% reduction in the
river's flood-carrying capacity. Furthermore, persistent sediment accumulation and low flow
conditions have resulted in a substantial loss of 48.34% of bank-full discharges over the past 24
years.
The findings of the study shed light on the consequences of decreased flood-carrying
capacity in alluvial channels due to inadequate sediment transport capacity resulting from flow
In another study, Li, Liu & Shao (2022) created an urban flood simulation model using
TELEMAC-2D and validated using data from two rainstorms that occurred on June 7, 2018, and
September 16, 2018. The model was then used to simulate flooding under various rainfall
scenarios, including different return periods and rainfall peak coefficients. They assessed the
flooding that was experienced by the area around Shenzhen River Basin, China.
This study employed the hazard-vulnerability (H-V) method, which considered factors
such as flood depth, flood velocity, elevation, slope, land use type, population density, and
property distribution. Weight values for each of these factors were calculated using the analytic
hierarchy process (AHP), and ArcGIS software was used for overlay calculations. They
developed a risk zoning map that provides valuable insights into the distribution of flood risk in
the Shenzhen River basin, offering a scientific basis for early flood prevention and drainage
was used to dynamically forecast flood risks in the Wuqiangxi Watershed near Hangzhou. The
watershed had previously suffered severe financial damage due to an extreme rainfall event in
2020. The study demonstrated that TELEMAC-2D could accurately predict general flood hazard
tendencies in the watershed. The model’s performance was validated against historical flood
events, ensuring its reliability for dynamic flood risk forecasting and extreme flash flood
reproduction. This research highlights the potential of TELEMAC-2D in flood risk prediction
and management.
on the Saalach River. They were conducting the study of how man-made structures affect the
river morphology thus resulting in more flooding. They compared how the river flow will be
affected when there are changes due to man-made structures to how it will be when you use the
clear water models which do not take into account the changes in river morphology. The
integrative model they provided has a more accurate representation of flood inundation in the
floodplain. As a result, it can offer more reliable predictions for decision-makers involved in
Baky, Islam, and Paul (2020) focused on integrating GIS, hydraulic modelling, and field
information in assessing the flood risk in Baniachong Upazila, Bangladesh. The study focuses
on Baniachong Upazila, a region where Boro rice, a significant crop, is predominantly grown.
The area’s vulnerability to flooding is a crucial factor in risk estimation. As the return period
increases, the inundation depth also increases significantly, impacting both cropland and
settlements. Cropland is highly vulnerable at a depth of 2.8 meters, while settlements are highly
integrating GIS, a hydraulic model, and field survey in flood risk assessment. This approach
successfully assesses flood risk in the study site, framing risk within a theoretical context.
Also, in 2015, Tung Vu, Chua, and Law utilized TELEMAC-2D to dynamically predict
flood risks for a part of the Mekong river. The study demonstrated the accuracy of TELEMAC
models with satellite images. Notably, the study also employed Blue Kenue, an advanced data
preparation, analysis, and visualization tool for hydraulic model, in the post-processing of the
data. The accuracy of the model was found to be high, with a match of over 90% with satellite
They used the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic modeling suite and a combination of ground and
remote sensing data, their study revealed significant degradation in the river's morphology due to
reduced flows and hydrological extremes. The excessive deposition of approximately 4.3 billion
cubic meters of sediment has elevated the channel bed, leading to a 17.75% reduction in the
river's flood-carrying capacity. Furthermore, persistent sediment accumulation and low flow
conditions have resulted in a substantial loss of 48.34% of bank-full discharges over the past 24
years.
The findings of the study shed light on the consequences of decreased flood-carrying
capacity in alluvial channels due to inadequate sediment transport capacity resulting from flow
model using TELEMAC-2D and validated using data from two rainstorms that occurred on June
7, 2018, and September 16, 2018. The model was then used to simulate flooding under various
rainfall scenarios, including different return periods and rainfall peak coefficients. They assessed
the flooding that was experienced by the area around Shenzhen River Basin, China.
considered factors such as flood depth, flood velocity, elevation, slope, land use type, population
density, and property distribution. Weight values for each of these factors were calculated using
the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and ArcGIS software was used for overlay calculations.
They developed a risk zoning map that provides valuable insights into the distribution of flood
risk in the Shenzhen River basin, offering a scientific basis for early flood prevention and
was used to dynamically forecast flood risks in the Wuqiangxi Watershed near Hangzhou. The
watershed had previously suffered severe financial damage due to an extreme rainfall event in
2020. The study demonstrated that TELEMAC-2D could accurately predict general flood hazard
tendencies in the watershed. The model’s performance was validated against historical flood
events, ensuring its reliability for dynamic flood risk forecasting and extreme flash flood
reproduction. This research highlights the potential of TELEMAC-2D in flood risk prediction
and management.
structures affect the river morphology thus resulting in more flooding. They compared how the
river flow will be affected when there are changes due to man-made structures to how it will be
when you use the clear water models which do not take into account the changes in river
morphology. The integrative model they provided has a more accurate representation of flood
inundation in the floodplain. As a result, it can offer more reliable predictions for
Baky, Islam, and Paul (2020) focused on integrating GIS, hydraulic modelling,
and field information in assessing the flood risk in Baniachong Upazila, Bangladesh. The study
focuses on Baniachong Upazila, a region where Boro rice, a significant crop, is predominantly
grown. The area’s vulnerability to flooding is a crucial factor in risk estimation. As the return
period increases, the inundation depth also increases significantly, impacting both cropland and
settlements. Cropland is highly vulnerable at a depth of 2.8 meters, while settlements are highly
integrating GIS, a hydraulic model, and field survey in flood risk assessment. This approach
successfully assesses flood risk in the study site, framing risk within a theoretical context.
Also, a recent study conducted by Wei Ronglian (2022), TELEMAC-2D was used to
dynamically forecast flood risks in the Wuqiangxi Watershed near Hangzhou. The watershed had
previously suffered severe financial damage due to an extreme rainfall event in 2020. The study
demonstrated that TELEMAC-2D could accurately predict general flood hazard tendencies in the
watershed. The model’s performance was validated against historical flood events, ensuring its
reliability for dynamic flood risk forecasting and extreme flash flood reproduction. This research
Tan (2022) assessed the spatial flood risk in the Municipality of Odiongan, located in the
archipelagic Romblon province of the Philippines. The assessment is conducted using the
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS), with data
risk in Odiongan, combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability factors. It offers valuable
insights for local authorities to develop effective flood risk reduction and management strategies
HEC-RAS to map the Labangan Channel Present in Hagonoy Bulacan. The study addresses
potential floods caused by the Labangan Channel, especially when its capacity is exceeded due
to water release from the Angat Dam. They attempted to provide a range of strategies and
projects aimed at reducing flood risks and minimizing damage in the affected areas. These
strategies may involve the construction of flood control structures, the enhancement of existing
Ahmed Kantoush from Kyoto University is currently underway. The project proposed a variety
of tools to assess the impact of extreme meteorological events, such as typhoons, floods, and
landslides, which are prevalent in countries like Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. These
countries are significantly affected by climate change and climate variability, factors that are
predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods and droughts. The project
utilizes software tools, including TELEMAC and SWAT, to predict the potential benefits of water
As various studies have been done, it is evident that the use of TELEMAC
and SWAT has not been prevalent in the Philippines. We would like to utilize it and prompt
various interventions to further upgrade the flood predictions that the country can use.
Going on to studies done in the country itself, Gacu, Monjardin, Senoro, & Tan (2022)
assessed the spatial flood risk in the Municipality of Odiongan, located in the archipelagic
Romblon province of the Philippines. The assessment is conducted using the Analytical
Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS), with data collected from
combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability factors. It offers valuable insights for local
authorities to develop effective flood risk reduction and management strategies to protect the
In 2021, Libiran, Manuel, Natividad, Rata & Tolentino (2022) Used HEC-RAS to map
the Labangan Channel Present in Hagonoy Bulacan. The study addresses flood management in
Hagonoy, Bulacan, Philippines, focusing on mitigating the effects of potential floods caused by
the Labangan Channel, especially when its capacity is exceeded due to water release from the
Angat Dam. They attempted to provide a range of strategies and projects aimed at reducing flood
risks and minimizing damage in the affected areas. These strategies may involve the construction
of flood control structures, the enhancement of existing infrastructure, land-use planning, and
from Kyoto University is currently underway. The project proposed a variety of tools to assess
the impact of extreme meteorological events, such as typhoons, floods, and landslides, which are
prevalent in countries like Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. These countries are significantly
affected by climate change and climate variability, factors that are predicted to increase the
frequency and magnitude of extreme floods and droughts. The project utilizes software tools,
including TELEMAC and SWAT, to predict the potential benefits of water release in preventing
As various studies have been done, it is evident that the use of TELEMAC has not been
prevalent in the Philippines. We would like to utilize it and prompt various interventions to
further upgrade the flood predictions that the country can use.
Summary of Chapter 2
Rivers have the ability to attract human populations and generate economic opportunities
because they provide essential resources like freshwater, transportation routes, and fertile land
for agriculture. However, alongside their benefits, rivers also present risks, particularly in the
form of flooding, which can threaten the lives and livelihoods of those living near them.
Flooding leads to the devastation of properties, enterprises, and unfortunately, loss of human
lives, making it one of the most devastating natural disasters that frequently occurs in the
Philippines.
Based on recent literature and research findings, it is evident that flood severity is
influenced not only by sediment accumulation but also by factors such as river flow and climate.
This study, however, concentrates solely on sediment accumulation in the rivers of Hagonoy,
Bulacan. The objective is to assess its specific causes and its unique contribution among other
factors.
To achieve this, the researchers aim to create simulations of sediment accumulation using
computer software applications like TELEMAC and SWAT. These simulations will serve as a
foundational tool for early assessment of the effectiveness of flood interventions in Hagonoy,
Bulacan. Past studies have demonstrated the successful use of these applications for simulating
and mapping flood hazards along floodplains and formulating flood management strategies for
flood-prone areas.
Conceptual Framework
maps, satellite images, river discharge data, rainfall data, sediment data, land use data, and flood
records. This gathered data will be input in SWAT and TELEMAC softwares for calibration and
validation. Various scenarios will be conducted using the SWAT and TELEMAC models to
understand how sediment accumulation impacts the river’s hydrodynamics and its implications
for flood events. Insights will be taken from the models and based on these insights, an effective
Hagonoy, Bulacan.
CHAPTER III
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research Design
The study employs a quantitative research design using hydrodynamic modeling. The
primary research instruments for this study are the SWAT and TELEMAC software tools. These
hydrodynamic models will be used to simulate the water flow and sediment transport in the
rivers.
The models will be calibrated and validated using available data and information from
various sources, such as topographic maps, satellite images, river discharge data, rainfall data,
sediment data, land use data, and flood records. Calibration involves adjusting the model
parameters to match observed data, while validation involves testing the model’s performance
The study will conduct various scenarios using the SWAT and TELEMAC models to
understand how sediment accumulation impacts the river’s hydrodynamics and its implications
for flood events. These scenarios will consider different levels of sediment accumulation,
different magnitudes and frequencies of rainfall events, and different boundary conditions.
Finally, based on the insights gained from the hydrodynamic models, effective and
sustainable flood intervention strategies will be proposed. These strategies will be formulated
and evaluated through calibrating the existing simulation. Thus, this study not only aims to
understand the patterns of sediment accumulation but also to propose effective flood intervention
instruments. SWAT is a small watershed-to-river basin-scale model used to simulate the quality
and quantity of surface and ground water and predict the environmental impact of land use, land
management practices, and climate change (Arnold et al., 2012). TELEMAC, on the other hand,
is a suite of finite element computer programs used for computational fluid dynamics (Hervouet,
2007). These tools will be used to simulate the hydrodynamics of Hagonoy, Bulacan rivers and
understand the impact of sediment accumulation on the river’s hydrodynamics and its
implications for flood events. The software tools come with a Graphical User Interface, which
The study will adhere to the International System of Units (SI) for all measurements and
computations. The geometry of the rivers in Hagonoy, Bulacan will be developed within the
software environment. Beyond the initial setup, the researchers will use SWAT and TELEMAC
tools to incorporate relevant terrain data and define river attributes and geometry. Once these
parameters are established, simulations for various scenarios, including steady-state and transient
conditions, can be performed. These simulations will help in understanding the behavior of
The output from these simulations will serve as a valuable resource in visualizing the
areas affected by floods based on the computed data. This information will then guide the
including PAGASA and NAMRIA, as well as local organizations near the study area, exclusively
dedicated to managing and collecting water-related information. These agencies are the primary
sources of hydrometeorological and geospatial data essential for our flood prediction and
warning systems. PAGASA, through its significant divisions like the Hydrometeorological Data
Application Section (HMDAS) and Flood Forecasting and Warning Section (FFWS), actively
collaborates with key agencies to enhance the effectiveness of flood forecasting and warning
conducting in-person visits. Through direct communication via email, we secured essential data
sets, fostering collaborative partnerships with these agencies. Simultaneously, some researchers
visited these agencies in person, further enhancing the data acquisition process by establishing
and geospatial information. The following data that we obtained are the following:
Precipitation data is a key factor in understanding and managing river water levels and
silt transport. The intent of gathering this information is to analyze historical weather patterns to
identify and evaluate how rainfall intensities directly influence river water levels and how silt
transport affects erosion and sediment deposition in rivers. The data will be requested from the
Climate data includes precipitation and temperature patterns, which influence river
dynamics by affecting water input, extreme weather events, and sediment transport. This data
will serve as a fundamental tool for predicting and understanding factors affecting river flooding
climate-related risks and safeguard communities and ecosystems. The researchers intend to
request this dataset through official correspondence with the Philippine Atmospheric,
Flow data time series records regular measurements, offering a chronological view of
substance flow or discharge in systems like rivers, aiding trend analysis. This data will help the
researcher understand the impact of changing flow rates on the surrounding environment,
including the potential for flood and erosion. The researchers intend to request to acquire this
dataset by initiating contact with National Power Corporation (NAPOCOR) and other
government units that obtain data in the bodies of water, specially the Labangan Channel, near
the area.
textures and composition. The dataset will help to understand how precipitation interacts with the
ground by providing insights into the capacity of the soil to absorb water, the speed of water
movement through the ground, and the potential for silt accumulation, specifically in riverbeds.
The data will be requested from the Bureau of Soil and Water Management (BSWM).
DEMS provide comprehensive elevation data about the river and its surrounding
topography, allowing for precise floodplain delineation and simulation of potential flood events.
The National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) will provide this model
These maps classify land as urban, agricultural, forested, or wetlands, allowing for the
identification of areas with varying surface characteristics. They are essential in flood modeling
and risk assessment because they demonstrate how different land use practices affect surface
runoff and water absorption. The land cover map of Hagonoy, Bulacan will be obtained from
This data is critical for assessing the environmental health and conditions of the study
area, as it provides critical insights into water quality, sediment transport, and the impact of
various factors on the aquatic ecosystem. The data will be gathered by the researchers from
Bathymetry Data
Bathymetry data plays a crucial role in characterizing the underwater topography of the
riverbed. Bathymetric information, which includes the depth and shape of the river channel,
provides essential input for numerical models. The function of collecting this data is allows for
the accurate representation of river geometry, enabling the simulation of flow patterns, sediment
transport, and sediment accumulation within the river channels. The researchers intend to request
to acquire this dataset by initiating contact with the authorities that conduct bathymetric surveys
like NAMRIA.
The model’s domain will be the locale of the study. For this specific study, It will be the
watershed of Hagonoy, Bulacan. While the main body of water to be analyzed will be the
Labangan Channel. This is what the researchers are going to map out through the software that
will be utilized.
TELEMAC Setup
This involves the crucial steps of configuring the necessary Python and GFortran compilers and
compiling the source code. By following the installation guidance, a solid foundation is laid for
The initial step in the research methodology involves extracting bathymetry data from a
Digital Elevation Model. This is achieved by either exporting the data as an ASCII text file
containing XYZ coordinates (point cloud data) which can be seamlessly imported into
BlueKenue and/or the TELEMAC. Incompatibility of the mentioned files with the prerequisite
softwares of TELEMAC is fixed using an external software for file conversion such as QGIS, a
popular open-source GIS application that works seamlessly with TELEMAC for spatial data
As the researchers already provided the XYZ file, BlueKenue assumes a central role in
generating the computational mesh and interpolating bathymetry data onto the mesh nodes. This
multifaceted task entails the creation of closed and open lines to delineate domain boundaries
and river channels. Subsequently, channel and domain meshes are constructed with the aid of
and boundary conditions input files. The geometry file encompasses the computational mesh as
the "BOTTOM" variable, while the boundary conditions file defines node types at the domain
boundaries.
With all preparations in place, the TELEMAC-2D simulation is initiated from the
command prompt. Subsequently, the results are subjected to post-processing and visualization
using BlueKenue and QGIS. This phase involves tasks such as assessing flood extents,
In summary of the software that the researchers need in order to successfully setup the
package, an operating system such as Linux or Windows will be utilized, a compilation tool or a
compiler for the code, libraries such as MPI and matplotlib, a mesh generation software,
Certain revisions and suggestions will be implemented through the meticulous editing of
the inputs, allowing the researchers to observe the outcomes and assess whether these actions or
recommendations have been effectively executed. This process involves a thorough examination
of the data, making necessary adjustments, and evaluating the resulting impact, providing
valuable insights into the overall success and implications of the proposed actions or
recommendations.
TELEMAC software yields a varied set of results based on the specific simulations and
water surface elevation, velocity fields indicating flow speed and direction, and streamlines
illustrating flow patterns. For sediment transport, TELEMAC produces maps showing sediment
concentration and data on bedload transport. Coastal applications involve wave modeling results,
detailing wave characteristics like heights, periods, and directions. Water quality assessments
maps and information on flood duration and depth. TELEMAC also assesses structural stress and
strain, offering stress data for structures like bridges and dams. The software supports scenario
analysis and produces validation results by comparing model predictions with field
measurements. Temporal aspects are captured through time-series data showing variable changes
over time. TELEMAC's outputs include comprehensive reports and visualizations like graphs
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